Jump to content
THE BROWNS BOARD

Election Prediction


One Post

Recommended Posts

Its days away from the Presidental Election and my two cents before announcing the winner.

 

 

Democrats will keep the states they always do. The swinging states lean towards change. Thus I say that this years campaigns are so different one thing is totally overlooked by many...

 

The avalanche of voters for Trump. It's all been downplayed to the point of some Republicans almost giving up, but Republicans show up and vote as the black voters are down.

 

Trump wins

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 132
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Trump wins. All the momentum has been going his way right when he needs it at the end of the race. More enthusiasm for Trump over a career corrupt politician like Clinton. Trump eeks out an electoral victory by threading the needle and winning most of the battle ground states.

 

Even if Trump narrowly wins this race the GOP has serious issues winning presidential elections going forward with an electoral map and demographics that favors the dems from the start leaving only a narrow path for Republicans to win...Trump will do it this time because seriously could the dems run a worse candidate than Hillary Clinton?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trump wins. All the momentum has been going his way right when he needs it at the end of the race. More enthusiasm for Trump over a career corrupt politician like Clinton. Trump eeks out an electoral victory by threading the needle and winning most of the battle ground states.

 

Even if Trump narrowly wins this race the GOP has serious issues winning presidential elections going forward with an electoral map and demographics that favors the dems from the start leaving only a narrow path for Republicans to win...Trump will do it this time because seriously could the dems run a worse candidate than Hillary Clinton?

It's Reagan all over again. He was down and the people forgot that Pepublicans show up and vote.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

the local republican and NRA offices haven't seen it like this, and they say they know folks who worked

em back in the day, and it's a lot like Reagan.

 

only, more democrats are very, very worried about the corruption in this gov., race relations, and ILLEGAL IMMIGRATIION..

and higgardly's disregard for the Constitution.

 

Trump wins - American desperatey needs a turn away from the corrupt leftist iceberg.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trump wins. All the momentum has been going his way right when he needs it at the end of the race. More enthusiasm for Trump over a career corrupt politician like Clinton. Trump eeks out an electoral victory by threading the needle and winning most of the battle ground states.

 

Even if Trump narrowly wins this race the GOP has serious issues winning presidential elections going forward with an electoral map and demographics that favors the dems from the start leaving only a narrow path for Republicans to win...Trump will do it this time because seriously could the dems run a worse candidate than Hillary Clinton?

If either party had a competent candidate win their primary, they would be mowing through either Trump or Clinton in the general election. It was a perfect storm of ineptitude.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, it isn't. Higgardly is liar, a thief, a marxist, a radical, unethical, totally corrupt, anti-Constitutional,

mafia big illegal money kind of bitch.

 

Trump has said some dumb stuff to be entertaining, never been in gov. Doesn't break

promises. Never puts our national security at risk, supports our CONSTITUTION,

and he does NOT LIE.

 

See?

 

The old liberal - "well, they are both imperfect, so......" doesn't fly with most folks on

the smart side of politics.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I found an interesting website, 270toWin, which creates an interactive electoral college map for the upcoming election. The map is generated by the aggregate of numerous polls; Close states (poll difference between Clinton and Trump averaging 5 points or less) are shown as toss up (tan). Leaning states (5-10 points) are a lighter blue/red. Darker blue/red states are averaging a spread of greater than 10 points.

 

Here is their current (11/3) electoral map:

 

y2Nn2.png

 

 

As the map currently stands, Clinton, although unpopular with many Americans, is still projected to have a wide lead over Trump based on Electoral College votes - in this case, Clinton only needs 11 electoral votes out of the 118 toss-up states to reach 270, while Trump would need 109. This means that Trump would have to pretty much run the board - winning the majority of the tossup states AND a few of the traditionally Democrat-friendly states, to win, which is highly unlikely at this point.

 

So, I decided to see what the count would be if I created a very friendly Trump map, where he managed to pick up all of the key battleground states like Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina, - which, I think, he is unlikely to do - with Clinton just picking up the usual Democrat strongholds of Maine and New Hampshire - very much in the realm of possibility. Here's what I came up with:

 

e3V9G.png

Even in this very unrealistically generous to Trump - electoral map, where he swept the entire south and the majority of the midwest, he still comes up short to Clinton in the Electoral College, 273-265. Plus, this map is precluded on him sweeping all of the major battleground states like Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina - which I think is unrealistically optimistic of him and his fan base, at this point. The math just isn't there.

 

My prediction?: Clinton, with over 300 electoral votes.

 

http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tough to call

 

Trump will win Ohio, Florida, Iowa, NC, and Nevada. Will still need help from somewhere else though (Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, etc)

 

I think Colorado would be the most likely out of those to go for Trump, but the polling data just doesn't look good for Trump currently, although he is starting to trend upward slightly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

I think Colorado would be the most likely out of those to go for Trump, but the polling data just doesn't look good for Trump currently, although he is starting to trend upward slightly.

Looks like NH may be a tossup too now though.

 

In that scenario if Trump got NH and none of the others it'd be 269-269.

 

He might get Maine cd2 though which is 1 vote

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tough to call

 

Trump will win Ohio, Florida, Iowa, NC, and Nevada. Will still need help from somewhere else though (Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, etc)

 

I'll tell ya, living in Florida I have no earthly idea how this state will end up. I know A LOT of people here in South Florida are urging folks to early vote like I have. When I was there it was a solid crowd and was very diverse (i.e. not white people). Of course it's rampant speculation to use that as evidence the minority vote will be good, but it wasn't bad either. If Hilldawg somehow gets FL the show is over.

 

I'm not kidding though, it seems like everywhere you go there's someone asking you to early vote as least where I live.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like NH may be a tossup too now though.

 

In that scenario if Trump got NH and none of the others it'd be 269-269.

 

He might get Maine cd2 though which is 1 vote

 

Tie, and it all comes down to how the House of Representatives votes. Can you imagine that clusterfuck? They can't even get simple spending bills passed, and then we'd be asking them to pick the next President? Holy fuck, that'd be a horror show. They don't even like either candidate; they might vote some darkhorse candidate as a compromise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess we'll see, come Tuesday. Either way, all my polls are projecting strongly that i'll be getting drunk as fuck Tuesday night, regardless of the winner.

I'll be working of course. My mama said Trump and she's a democrat and never wrong about anything other than her lumpy cream of wheat growing up.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, it isn't. Higgardly is liar, a thief, a marxist, a radical, unethical, totally corrupt, anti-Constitutional,

mafia big illegal money kind of bitch.

 

Trump has said some dumb stuff to be entertaining, never been in gov. Doesn't break

promises. Never puts our national security at risk, supports our CONSTITUTION,

and he does NOT LIE.

Stiffing construction companies isn't breaking a promise?

 

Also, Cal are you trying to say that Trump isn't an "imperfect candidate" after you shit talked him left and right before he won the GOP primary?

 

I think Hillary is trash can juice but Trump is by no means a good candidate. Just not as horrid as his competition.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Stiffing construction companies isn't breaking a promise?

 

Also, Cal are you trying to say that Trump isn't an "imperfect candidate" after you shit talked him left and right before he won the GOP primary?

 

I think Hillary is trash can juice but Trump is by no means a good candidate. Just not as horrid as his competition.

Trump did go bankrupt. He financially failed. That isn't breaking a promise... unless you think he deliberately failed,

which I don't really think you think.

 

No, of course not - my point was - it is just plain false to declare both as equal because they are both imperfect.

I explained that. Yes, I wasn't on the Trump bandwagon til later, but seeing all the facts come out about higgardlys

mafia type corruption, we have Trump and NRA signs in our yard, and we aren't alone, either.

 

I've come to believe that Trump IS a great candidate. He's plenty brash enough to withstand the liberal marxist

storm against him, and he won't be corrupt about our Constitution, and he doesn't need to corrupt our entire gov

to make money - he's rich already.

 

When I listen to his speeches, I believe him on trade. 2nd Amendment. Honesty. All the things he talks about.

 

I don't believe anything higgardly says. She's a hard core marxist mafia type totally corrupt bitch that has done all

her garbage IN OUR GOVERNMENT.

 

Trump has never been in OUR GOVERNMENT. Despite Trump being imperfect, he's a great candidate. Many

of us are TIRED of the weasel lack of courage that the likes ot paul ryan, mitch mcconnell, romney, john mccain etc etc etc etcetc..

 

tired ot the asswhole political games going on behind the scenes. Trump has NEVER LIED ONCE IN OFFICE. He hasn't

BEEN in office.

 

Higgardly is a dishonest, dangerous piece of corrupt trash. Trump is actually the terrific choice to drain the swamp.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trump has said some dumb stuff to be entertaining, never been in gov. Doesn't breakpromises. Never puts our national security at risk, supports our CONSTITUTION, and he does NOT LIE.

 

How does a person who places such high value on character when it comes to mere football players dare to spout such drivel about a morally bankrupt candidate for President of the United States?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

How does a person who places such high value on character when it comes to mere football players dare to spout such drivel about a morally bankrupt candidate for President of the United States?

because America has to CHOOSE a president, Tour. Just because Trump has warts etc... doesn't mean we just don't

have to have a president, like we don't have to pick a qb in the draft. How does a guy smart as you spout such dumb drivel?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...