WPB Dawg Fan Posted December 8, 2008 Report Share Posted December 8, 2008 Although there are still 3 weeks left in the season...the Browns are all but locked into the 8th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. Currently, the first 6 picks are pretty much locked by teams with 2 or fewer wins. None of these teams have a chance of winning 2 more over the last weeks...so no need to look at their schedules. As for the picks over 12th...those teams have 6 or more wins...and there is no way the Browns win 2 out of 3 vs Pittsburgh/Cincinnati/Philadelphia (we will be lucky to win 1). So that leaves us in contention with the following teams: Green Bay 5-8 San Diego 5-8 San Francisco 5-8 Cleveland 4-9 Jacksonville 4-9 Oakland 3-10 If you assume wins over lesser opponents....and losses to teams with better records, these teams will finish with the following records (strength of schedule in parentheses): Green Bay 7-9 (106) San Diego 6-10 (108) San Francisco 6-10 (94) Cleveland 5-11 (118) Jacksonville 4-12 (110) Oakland 3-13 (108) As strength of schedule is the ONLY tie-breaker (before a coin toss) in draft selection...the ONLY way for the Browns to move to the 7th slot is for Jacksonville to win a game (GB???) and for Cleveland to lose all 3. The only way for the Browns to move to the 9th or lower spot is for the Browns to win multiple games (yeah, right) or for the following games to go unexpected AND the Browns win 1 game: SD loses to KC SF loses to St.Louis GB loses to Detroit AND Jacksonville Basically, none of those options are likely. So, the we can pretty much assume the Browns will be picking 8th, with the following being the likely order of the 1st round: 1. Detroit 2. St. Louis 3. Cincinnati 4. Seattle 5. Kansas City 6. Oakland 7. Jacksonville 8. Cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballpeen Posted December 8, 2008 Report Share Posted December 8, 2008 Nice work...though I don't think it totally impossible we don't win 2 more games...we always seem to play Philly tough...I think we could flub up and win that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrownIndian Posted December 8, 2008 Report Share Posted December 8, 2008 Nice work...though I don't think it totally impossible we don't win 2 more games...we always seem to play Philly tough...I think we could flub up and win that one. With Dorsey ? :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OconRecon Posted December 8, 2008 Report Share Posted December 8, 2008 Draft Dog has us up to 9th at this point still taking Jenkins in round 1 and Ringer in round 2. I think those are the same as last week. If we move up to 8th and Orakpo is still there, he'll be impossible to pass on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YtownBrownsBacker Posted December 8, 2008 Report Share Posted December 8, 2008 Draft Dog has us up to 9th at this point still taking Jenkins in round 1 and Ringer in round 2. I think those are the same as last week. If we move up to 8th and Orakpo is still there, he'll be impossible to pass on. No matter what defensive scheme we run with a new coach, we desparately need LBs or we will go into next year not being able to stop anybody again. With possible trade bait we should be able to get 4 first day picks. WE have Harrison and I would convert Cribbs to RB so forget Ringer, we need a power back, because Lewis can't get it done. Jones will be a FA and will walk so we need a SS more then a corner. If we stay in the 3-4, who do you have to replace Davis and McGinest, who both suck, and are major reasons we can't get the other teams offense off the field. We have zero pass rush and Jackson as the only LB that can tackle. I watched a few games yesterday after the Browns and Pitts. offense sucked all day but the defense held them in until they could get a few TOs. Titans win because of their defense, not their offense. Tell me how Ringer or Jenkins could have helped us win yesterday. You got to stop the run and we don't have players who can put a punishing hit on anybody. Plus, Shaffer is a pussy and needs replaced, Fraley has shown his age and we don't know what we have in Tucker next year. Stallworth has sucked and we need a #2 receiver. With that, you can't perdict anything until we find out who the coach will be and what kind of schemes we will run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solon16 Posted December 8, 2008 Report Share Posted December 8, 2008 N E one else completely surprised San Diego, JAX and Green Bay are in the mix for Number 6~9 in the draft??/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
585Dawg Posted December 8, 2008 Report Share Posted December 8, 2008 Damn there is a lot of lousy teams this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vegasdogg Posted December 8, 2008 Report Share Posted December 8, 2008 Draft Dog has us up to 9th at this point still taking Jenkins in round 1 and Ringer in round 2. I think those are the same as last week. If we move up to 8th and Orakpo is still there, he'll be impossible to pass on. Orakpo/Jenkins in 1, and Ringer in 2? Where do I sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
We need Tom Tupa Posted December 8, 2008 Report Share Posted December 8, 2008 dumb question: what do those sos numbers mean? and where did you get them? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPB Dawg Fan Posted December 8, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2008 dumb question: what do those sos numbers mean? and where did you get them? thanks those are the number of wins (actual and projected) of the opponents faced. The higher the number....the stronger the schedule...and therefore the higher the pick. If you tie and have a higher SOS number, you pick AFTER the other team. Keep in mind that in the case of ties...the teams ROTATE in subsequent rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
We need Tom Tupa Posted December 8, 2008 Report Share Posted December 8, 2008 gotcha. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmp Posted December 8, 2008 Report Share Posted December 8, 2008 Although there are still 3 weeks left in the season...the Browns are all but locked into the 8th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. Currently, the first 6 picks are pretty much locked by teams with 2 or fewer wins. None of these teams have a chance of winning 2 more over the last weeks...so no need to look at their schedules. As for the picks over 12th...those teams have 6 or more wins...and there is no way the Browns win 2 out of 3 vs Pittsburgh/Cincinnati/Philadelphia (we will be lucky to win 1). So that leaves us in contention with the following teams: Green Bay 5-8 San Diego 5-8 San Francisco 5-8 Cleveland 4-9 Jacksonville 4-9 Oakland 3-10 If you assume wins over lesser opponents....and losses to teams with better records, these teams will finish with the following records (strength of schedule in parentheses): Green Bay 7-9 (106) San Diego 6-10 (108) San Francisco 6-10 (94) Cleveland 5-11 (118) Jacksonville 4-12 (110) Oakland 3-13 (108) As strength of schedule is the ONLY tie-breaker (before a coin toss) in draft selection...the ONLY way for the Browns to move to the 7th slot is for Jacksonville to win a game (GB???) and for Cleveland to lose all 3. The only way for the Browns to move to the 9th or lower spot is for the Browns to win multiple games (yeah, right) or for the following games to go unexpected AND the Browns win 1 game: SD loses to KC SF loses to St.Louis GB loses to Detroit AND Jacksonville Basically, none of those options are likely. So, the we can pretty much assume the Browns will be picking 8th, with the following being the likely order of the 1st round: 1. Detroit 2. St. Louis 3. Cincinnati 4. Seattle 5. Kansas City 6. Oakland 7. Jacksonville 8. Cleveland DUDE.....YOU NEED TO GET A GIRLFRIEND!!!... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roach Posted December 9, 2008 Report Share Posted December 9, 2008 Wouldn't the Bengals take DA for their 3rd round pick (assuming DA is healthy)? He is certainly better than that kid from Harvard. For us, that is nearly a low 2nd round pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrFreeze Posted December 9, 2008 Report Share Posted December 9, 2008 Hey Kiddo, he's most likely married, thus he has ass in his house 24/7 with very little courting going on. Just a little "feel like doing it?" and he's laid. Married guys have more time for this shit than anybody. Spoken like a man who knows better! Seriously though, thanks for the breakdown. Unfortunately it will take more than a single draft to fix all of our problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkidMarks Posted December 9, 2008 Report Share Posted December 9, 2008 Wow that would be awesome! 8th pick overall in 2009 and 1st pick overall in 2010! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPB Dawg Fan Posted December 15, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2008 Although there are still 3 weeks left in the season...the Browns are all but locked into the 8th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. Currently, the first 6 picks are pretty much locked by teams with 2 or fewer wins. None of these teams have a chance of winning 2 more over the last weeks...so no need to look at their schedules. As for the picks over 12th...those teams have 6 or more wins...and there is no way the Browns win 2 out of 3 vs Pittsburgh/Cincinnati/Philadelphia (we will be lucky to win 1). So that leaves us in contention with the following teams: Green Bay 5-8 San Diego 5-8 San Francisco 5-8 Cleveland 4-9 Jacksonville 4-9 Oakland 3-10 If you assume wins over lesser opponents....and losses to teams with better records, these teams will finish with the following records (strength of schedule in parentheses): Green Bay 7-9 (106) San Diego 6-10 (108) San Francisco 6-10 (94) Cleveland 5-11 (118) Jacksonville 4-12 (110) Oakland 3-13 (108) As strength of schedule is the ONLY tie-breaker (before a coin toss) in draft selection...the ONLY way for the Browns to move to the 7th slot is for Jacksonville to win a game (GB???) and for Cleveland to lose all 3. The only way for the Browns to move to the 9th or lower spot is for the Browns to win multiple games (yeah, right) or for the following games to go unexpected AND the Browns win 1 game: SD loses to KC SF loses to St.Louis GB loses to Detroit AND Jacksonville Basically, none of those options are likely. So, the we can pretty much assume the Browns will be picking 8th, with the following being the likely order of the 1st round: 1. Detroit 2. St. Louis 3. Cincinnati 4. Seattle 5. Kansas City 6. Oakland 7. Jacksonville 8. Cleveland Wow...was I wrong. After only 1 week it is pretty obvious the Browns are looking like they may even have a top 5 pick. Jacksonville won....and put the Browns into the 7th slot already. Seattle won....and are now only 1 game ahead of the Browns...with a home game vs the Jets (which team will show up?) and a road game vs Arizona (who has already wrapped up the 4th seed and not likely to move up. Cincinnati won...and now have games vs US and home vs KC It is just as likely that Seattle and Cincinnati will win their last 2 games as it is that the Browns will lose their last two games...putting the Browns 5th. The more likely position is now 6th...with Cincinnati beating us and KC to move back into 7th. The revised top 8 is now 1. Detroit 2. St.Louis 3. KC 4. Seattle 5. Oakland 6. Cleveland 7. Cincinnati 8. Jacksonville/GB/SF (who cares) However, a win over Cincinnati will put us back into the 8th at best scenario...with as low as 10th still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YtownBrownsBacker Posted December 15, 2008 Report Share Posted December 15, 2008 Wouldn't the Bengals take DA for their 3rd round pick (assuming DA is healthy)? He is certainly better than that kid from Harvard. For us, that is nearly a low 2nd round pick. Why would the Bengles even consider DA. They have Palmer and a DA clone in their backup. How About Detroit, Minn, Seattle? Especially The Seahawks who need to rebuild everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPB Dawg Fan Posted December 15, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2008 Assuming this is the top of the draft... 1. Detroit - Matt Stafford or Sam Bradford...but Stafford wins out 2. St.Louis - Andre Smith, OT 3. KC - Michael Oher, OT (they may go with Bradford...but I think Thigpen gets another year) 4. Seattle - Michael Crabtree, WR (they need weapons on offense) 5. Oakland - Taylor Mays, SS (this is Oakland after all) 6. Cleveland - decisions, decisions They guys the Browns are likely to look at (Orakpo, Maualuga, Lauriniatis, Curry, Jenkins, Davis, Cushing) are all pretty much UNLIKELY to go before the Browns pick here. The one MOST likely to be gone will be Curry...as he might be gone to St. Louis, Oakland or Cincinnati if they pick ahead of us. So, there is a pretty good chance we are going to have our pick of 6 out of 7 of our top players (and Cinci may just go with Wells anyway). Currently, the guys moving UP according to Kiper are Cushing/Jenkins/Orakpo/Tyson Jackson/Laurinaitis (Maualuga #3 and Curry #1 are at the top anyway). Scouts Inc has Jenkins and Curry as the top of that group. I just don't see us going corner in the first round...and with Curry being the top guy according to Kiper/Scouts Inc/Scott Wright....he seems to be the way the Browns are likely to go. With the possibility of going to a 4-3...I think the VERSATILITY of Curry is going to be a huge factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
damajuki Posted December 15, 2008 Report Share Posted December 15, 2008 Great work on this, John. Thanks for keeping it updated. I'm hoping for Curry now. Alo's Curry-ing favor (badumBUH) has worked on me too. That guy just LOOKS like a stud. And if you look back at the last few top 10 true LBs (not rush guys like Gholston), they are a pretty safe pick. Speed and power at that position definitely translate and Curry has that in spades. I don't like the idea of Orakpo AT ALL. It's great he's a weightlifter and all but I just don't trust guys like that. If it's not Curry, then I'd take my chances on Maualuga. We HAVE to have that LB presence, I think, and a true stud LB will make everyone even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Aloysius Posted December 15, 2008 Report Share Posted December 15, 2008 Ha. Nice, Juki. But don't take my word as gospel on Curry. You can watch him play this Saturday at 11 on ESPN & judge for yourself. Later this week, I'll be posting a writeup of which prospects to watch in that & the other bowl games this weekend. Curry definitely will be at the top of the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canton Mike Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 I think the Browns will pick 7th...as far as who?...I have no idea as I have not had the time to follow the college game as usual. They SHOULD be able to grab a very nice player. I DO agree with moving Cribbs to RB...that would REALLY diversify the offense. Time will tell Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballpeen Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 I want a sure thing. I don't want a stretch. I don't want a project. I don't really care what position he plays, I just want him to play, and play it well. To me, the worst thing we can do is focus on "a" position....let's just get a damn good football player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIGBEN Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 As of right now I could give a flip about who we draft. If we do not get a good coach it won't make a bit of difference who the hell we get. GO GET THE CHIN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JewDago Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 i don't know that we'll pick eighth at this point. there are three five-win teams in the league: san francisco, jacksonville and green bay. san francisco is rounding into form and has a win on us with games remaining at saint louis ang against washington; they should at least win one of those and could possibly take both. jacksonville has indianapolis and baltimore left. both would be tough wins, but there's always the chance that baltimore could hav nothing to play for and rest their starters in their week 17 matchup. green bay plays in chicago and then has detroit at home. they'll at least be able to handle the lions and could take the bears down. any nfc north team can lose to any other during any given week. there's just no predicting that division. then again, if the lions haven't won before week 17, they're going to seriously throw down the gauntlet to avoid being the first 0-16 team. which only leaves us. we have the bengals at home and then we go to pittsburgh. the way we're playing right now, i don't know if we can even beat the bengals. i'm just not sure if we can score enough points. it's entirely conceivable that one TD could beat us. definitely two. this could end up being a four-win season very easily, and we could have the seventh pick in the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPB Dawg Fan Posted December 16, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 i don't know that we'll pick eighth at this point. there are three five-win teams in the league: san francisco, jacksonville and green bay. san francisco is rounding into form and has a win on us with games remaining at saint louis ang against washington; they should at least win one of those and could possibly take both. jacksonville has indianapolis and baltimore left. both would be tough wins, but there's always the chance that baltimore could hav nothing to play for and rest their starters in their week 17 matchup. green bay plays in chicago and then has detroit at home. they'll at least be able to handle the lions and could take the bears down. any nfc north team can lose to any other during any given week. there's just no predicting that division. then again, if the lions haven't won before week 17, they're going to seriously throw down the gauntlet to avoid being the first 0-16 team. which only leaves us. we have the bengals at home and then we go to pittsburgh. the way we're playing right now, i don't know if we can even beat the bengals. i'm just not sure if we can score enough points. it's entirely conceivable that one TD could beat us. definitely two. this could end up being a four-win season very easily, and we could have the seventh pick in the draft. JD, I already updated this to show we will LIKELY pick 6th. I think we don't win another game...and I think Cincinnati beat US AND KC...to end up 1/2 a game ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JewDago Posted December 16, 2008 Report Share Posted December 16, 2008 whoops. my bad. i should've re-read the earlier posts. i am, after all, sometimes an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPB Dawg Fan Posted December 17, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2008 whoops. my bad. i should've re-read the earlier posts. i am, after all, sometimes an idiot. One of the best 'idiots' on this board!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YtownBrownsBacker Posted December 17, 2008 Report Share Posted December 17, 2008 I thought Michael Crabbtree was a pure Sophmore and not eligible for the draft. Some Seattle blogs are talking about Bennie Wells or Sam Bradford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JewDago Posted December 22, 2008 Report Share Posted December 22, 2008 after today's action, with seattle and the raiders winning, the browns now have the fifth pick in the draft. it's detroit, st. louis, kansas city, cincinnati then us, though seattle likely has a weaker SOS, which would bump us behind them to sixth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPB Dawg Fan Posted December 22, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2008 after today's action, with seattle and the raiders winning, the browns now have the fifth pick in the draft. it's detroit, st. louis, kansas city, cincinnati then us, though seattle likely has a weaker SOS, which would bump us behind them to sixth. Oakland and Seattle BOTH have a weaker strength of schedule than us....so we remain 7th at this point. The only way we move up is if we lose (likely) next week and one of the following teams win: Cincinnati (play KC in Cincy)(LIKELY) Oakland (play @ TB)(NOT LIKELY) Seattle (play @ AZ)(POSSIBLE) The only way we move down is if we WIN (not likely) next week and one or more of the following teams lose: Jacksonville (@ Baltimore)(LIKELY) Green Bay (@ Chicago; Detroit)(NOT LIKELY) So we are are MOST LIKELY to pick 6th or 7th...and I would bet on 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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