Third Round QBs

[The Gipper]

On another thread it was stated that we shouldn't get our hopes up over a QB drafted in the third round. I pointed out that the likes of Joe Montana, Dan Fouts and Fran Tarkenton were third round choices. Well, let's see what the 3rd round QB choices have looked like in the last, say 15 years. Here is the list of all the QBs chosen in the third round of the NFL draft between 1995 and 2009. Let us know how you think they have fared:

 

Eric Zeier, Cleveland

Stoney Case, Ariz.

Bobby Hoying, Phil.

Brian Griese, Denver

Jonathan Quinn, Jax.

Brock Huard Seattle

Chris Redman, Baltimore

Giovanni Carmazzi, SF

Josh McCown, Ariz.

Chris Simms, Tampa

Dave Ragone, Hou.

Matt Schaub, Atl.

David Green, Sea

Andrew Walter, Oak

Charlie Frye, Cle

Brody Croyle, KC

Charlie Whitehurst, SD

Trent Edwards, Buff.

Kevin O'Connell NE

 

I'll be honest with you, I don't see a star QB in that entire bunch. About the only one that might reach that status is Schaub. Griese was OK for a bit, but fell back.

Showing this list doesn't make one optimistic about McCoy. But, who knows. Lightning might strike.

[Paxton]

Matt Schaub's a pretty big success story.

[The Gipper]

Compare the third round list to the first round list. Here are all the first round QBs drafted since 1995:

 

Matt Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Josh Freeman

Matt Ryan

Joe Flacco

Jamarcus Russell

Brady Quinn

Vince Young

Matt Leinert

Jay Cutler

Alex Smith

Aaron Rodgers

Jason Campbell

Eli Manning

Phillip Rivers

Ben Roethlisberger

J.P. Losman

Carson Palmer

Byron Leftwich

Kyle Boller

Rex Grossman

David Carr

Joey Harrington

Patrick Ramsey

Michael Vick

Chad Pennington

Tim Couch

Donovan McNabb

Akili Smith

Daunte Culpepper

Cade McNown

Payton Manning

Ryan Leaf

Jim Druckenmiller

Steve McNair

Kerry Collins

 

Needless to say, numerous star QBs, but also some famous busts.

[cambridgeho]

Who knows how he will turn out, but I do know that he will actually have some time to develope and probably be a pretty good QB. He is deadly accurate and has a strong but not amazing arm, but he is mobile. He will be a replica of Steve Young I bet, and thats what Big Mike seen in him.

[The Gipper]

OK then, let's look at the Second round of the draft. Here are all QBs drafted in the second round between 1995 and 2009:

 

Pat White

Brian Brohm

Chad Henne

Kevin Kolb

John Beck

Drew Stanton

Kellen Clemens

Tavaris Jackson

Drew Brees

Quincy Carter

Marques Tuiasosopo

Shaun King

Charlie Batch

Jake Plummer

Tony Banks

Todd Collins

Kordell Stewart

 

Only one sure fire star here: Brees. A few others had mediocre success. Stewart, Plummer. A couple will be given a chance to prove themselves: Henne, Kolb. A pretty mixed bag all in all.

[tshirtfan]

1. First round quarterbacks are guaranteed more development, based on the desire to recoup the initial investment.

 

2. Most of the quarterbacks drafted in earlier rounds were better at the position IN COLLEGE than quarterbacks drafted in later rounds. Colt McCoy is one of the few stud college QBs whose draft stock slid. He's better than most other quarterbacks that wound up being third round picks.

 

3. This type of analysis can only show correlation; we need to understand what causes quarterbacks to be successful vs. busts. Even the best draft scouts can't do this reliably, which is why you see guys like Tom Brady become so successful, and guys like Ryan Leaf fail.

 

Bottom line? No idea if Colt will be successful, but it certainly could be argued that he has a much bigger chance than most of the other 3rd round picks on the list.

[The Gipper]

I won't bother to list all the QBs that were drafted in rounds 4-7 in this 15 year period. Half of them never actually eve played in the NFL. Only the following ever accomplished the task of throwing for as much as 5000 yards in their careers:

 

Danny Kannell

Rob Johnson

Matt Cassell

Derek Anderson

David Garrard

Aaron Brooks

Marc Bulger

Kyle Orton

Matt Hasselback (second with over 26,000 career yards)

Tom Brady (over 30,000 career yards, and, oh yeah, 3 NFL titles)

 

(Seneca Wallace was drafted here but has only thrown for about 3500 yards so far in his career)

 

Clearly one superstar and a few other serviceable players. But that is it for all those years.

 

The moral of the story may be that, overall, you oughtta get your QB in the first round.

[The Gipper]

1. First round quarterbacks are guaranteed more development, based on the desire to recoup the initial investment.

 

2. Most of the quarterbacks drafted in earlier rounds were better at the position IN COLLEGE than quarterbacks drafted in later rounds. Colt McCoy is one of the few stud college QBs whose draft stock slid. He's better than most other quarterbacks that wound up being third round picks.

 

3. This type of analysis can only show correlation; we need to understand what causes quarterbacks to be successful vs. busts. Even the best draft scouts can't do this reliably, which is why you see guys like Tom Brady become so successful, and guys like Ryan Leaf fail.

 

Bottom line? No idea if Colt will be successful, but it certainly could be argued that he has a much bigger chance than most of the other 3rd round picks on the list.

 

 

I agree. This would need far more analysis. This is merely raw data that I have given, which may show certain trends.

[tshirtfan]

I agree. This would need far more analysis. This is merely raw data that I have given, which may show certain trends.

 

It would be interesting to ask top NFL offensive coordinators what they believed the three most important skills and talents for quarterbacks to have, and the three most difficult weaknesses to overcome.

 

I think the fact that first round QBs get the most reps, development time, and attention attributes to their success a lot. Sam Bradford was not as "prepared" to play the pro game as Colt McCoy.. much less experienced. Didn't have to read the defense himself as much. But he's getting fast tracked.

 

I'd say the amount of development attention he's allegedly getting clearly demonstrates that he's going to get a shot to lead the franchise. It just doesn't sound like he's being groomed to be a lifetime backup; I'm sure many of the other third round QBs were.

[Thaak]

3. This type of analysis can only show correlation; we need to understand what causes quarterbacks to be successful vs. busts. Even the best draft scouts can't do this reliably, which is why you see guys like Tom Brady become so successful, and guys like Ryan Leaf fail.

 

I personally think there are a couple reasons for why a QB who was successful in college may be a bust in the NFL.

 

First, though, lets throw out the obvious reasons. The reasons why several of the Heisman QB's and National Championship QB's can't seem to make it. They are products of their college system, and have no real QB mentality or skills.

 

So lets take a QB that by all scouting reports have NFL calibre mentalities and skills.

 

1) They are drafted simply because they are good, but put into an offense that doesn't fit their particular personality or style. This actually seems to happen more with other positions than QB, but lets say that Atlanta decided Vick shouldn't run at all and be just a drop back passer. Things like this have, and will continue to happen.

 

2) They are thrown out to the wolves too soon. They aren't ready, and so lose confidence. Once the confidence to make the right decision is lost, they think too much, and become slow, or start panicking and making worse decisions. This happens quite often. The reason a QB is drafted and thrown right into the mix is often because the team sucks and needs them. A few success stories come out of this, but they are usually from a time when QB's were given more time to develop. One or two (or in the case of Bradshaw four) crap seasons didn't lose them the job automatically. Today, one or two crap games could lose them the job.

 

3) The talent around them isn't strong enough to help them out. Now if you have a good young core, that doesn't play well together yet, because they are young, then this isn't as much of a problem. Aikman and Elway are prime examples of this. They had terrible first seasons, then started doing well as the team started to gel and they started to learn the game.

 

The best case scenario, is the Montana/Young thing, or Favre/Rogers, or bringing Favre/Hasselbeck in with a strong team to help them out while they are still learning the game. Hell, I believe that the old LA Rams (yes the ones that won their super bowl) had two QB's that actually platooned throughout the season. Norm Van Brocklin was one, and I can't remember the other.

 

Couch, I am convinced, would have been a good QB given different circumstances.

[ballpeen]

On another thread it was stated that we shouldn't get our hopes up over a QB drafted in the third round. I pointed out that the likes of Joe Montana, Dan Fouts and Fran Tarkenton were third round choices. Well, let's see what the 3rd round QB choices have looked like in the last, say 15 years. Here is the list of all the QBs chosen in the third round of the NFL draft between 1995 and 2009. Let us know how you think they have fared:

 

Eric Zeier, Cleveland

Stoney Case, Ariz.

Bobby Hoying, Phil.

Brian Griese, Denver

Jonathan Quinn, Jax.

Brock Huard Seattle

Chris Redman, Baltimore

Giovanni Carmazzi, SF

Josh McCown, Ariz.

Chris Simms, Tampa

Dave Ragone, Hou.

Matt Schaub, Atl.

David Green, Sea

Andrew Walter, Oak

Charlie Frye, Cle

Brody Croyle, KC

Charlie Whitehurst, SD

Trent Edwards, Buff.

Kevin O'Connell NE

 

I'll be honest with you, I don't see a star QB in that entire bunch. About the only one that might reach that status is Schaub. Griese was OK for a bit, but fell back.

Showing this list doesn't make one optimistic about McCoy. But, who knows. Lightning might strike.

 

 

 

I know we have been through this before some time back.....take Tarkenton as an example....his draft slot when he was drafted(not going to look up the exacts) would have made him a late first rounder today when taking in to account the number of teams drafting players....maybe a 12 team league v a 32 team league.

 

 

But I agree...lightening can strike twice, so lets see how it works out.

 

 

I will say that if things go sour this year and we have a shot at a top QB next year, I wouldn't let Colt sway my opinion and keep from drafting him.

 

 

 

 

So what if you end up with 2 good QBs....QB's always draw a premium in a trade.

[CLEVELandMILIDH]

Here's the top 5 QB's with most wins in NCAA career.

 

45--Colt McCoy--Texas

42--David Greene--Georgia

39--Peyton Manning--Tennessee

38--Ken Dorsey--Miami (Fla)

37--Dan Marino--Pittsburgh

 

Two of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the NFL are on that list, hopefully he can make it 3

 

 

[Thaak]

I know we have been through this before some time back.....take Tarkenton as an example....his draft slot when he was drafted(not going to look up the exacts) would have made him a late first rounder today when taking in to account the number of teams drafting players....maybe a 12 team league v a 32 team league.

 

 

But I agree...lightening can strike twice, so lets see how it works out.

 

 

I will say that if things go sour this year and we have a shot at a top QB next year, I wouldn't let Colt sway my opinion and keep from drafting him.

 

 

 

 

So what if you end up with 2 good QBs....QB's always draw a premium in a trade.

 

The NFL expanded to 14 teams in 1961 (the Vikings were one of those expansion teams). But the AFL also had 8 teams that year. So there were 22 teams vying for players.

 

Certainly not 32 teams, but still, the change isn't as drastic as you made it out to be.

 

 

[rich4eagle]

On another thread it was stated that we shouldn't get our hopes up over a QB drafted in the third round. I pointed out that the likes of Joe Montana, Dan Fouts and Fran Tarkenton were third round choices. Well, let's see what the 3rd round QB choices have looked like in the last, say 15 years. Here is the list of all the QBs chosen in the third round of the NFL draft between 1995 and 2009. Let us know how you think they have fared:

 

Eric Zeier, Cleveland

Stoney Case, Ariz.

Bobby Hoying, Phil.

Brian Griese, Denver

Jonathan Quinn, Jax.

Brock Huard Seattle

Chris Redman, Baltimore

Giovanni Carmazzi, SF

Josh McCown, Ariz.

Chris Simms, Tampa

Dave Ragone, Hou.

Matt Schaub, Atl.

David Green, Sea

Andrew Walter, Oak

Charlie Frye, Cle

Brody Croyle, KC

Charlie Whitehurst, SD

Trent Edwards, Buff.

Kevin O'Connell NE

 

I'll be honest with you, I don't see a star QB in that entire bunch. About the only one that might reach that status is Schaub. Griese was OK for a bit, but fell back.

Showing this list doesn't make one optimistic about McCoy. But, who knows. Lightning might strike.

 

What is the point since about 20 first round QB's won the Bowl so far..........????????????????????

[ballpeen]

The NFL expanded to 14 teams in 1961 (the Vikings were one of those expansion teams). But the AFL also had 8 teams that year. So there were 22 teams vying for players.

 

Certainly not 32 teams, but still, the change isn't as drastic as you made it out to be.

 

 

Like I said....i wan't going to go back and look it up.....but, ok, I will

 

 

 

Oops....here ya go...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_NFL_Draft

 

 

 

Seems Fran was the 29th player selected.....you do the math

 

 

 

 

So....lets see....hmmmm....29th player selected.....I am not the best at math but I think that puts him in the first round in todays NFL.

 

 

 

yep.....32 teams is more than 29 every time I count.

 

 

 

If i am wrong, let me know.

 

 

 

Yep, the AFL draft started in 1960, but really, that isn't germane to the discussion, so what's your point??? Tell me in detail how that relates to the discussion???

 

 

It doesn't, so don't even try.

 

 

Thanks

 

[Thaak]

Like I said....i wan't going to go back and look it up.....but, ok, I will

 

 

 

Oops....here ya go...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_NFL_Draft

 

 

 

Seems Fran was the 29th player selected.....you do the math

 

 

 

 

So....lets see....hmmmm....29th player selected.....I am not the best at math but I think that puts him in the first round in todays NFL.

 

 

 

yep.....32 teams is more than 29 every time I count.

 

 

 

If i am wrong, let me know.

 

 

 

Yep, the AFL draft started in 1960, but really, that isn't germane to the discussion, so what's your point??? Tell me in detail how that relates to the discussion???

 

 

It doesn't, so don't even try.

 

 

Thanks

 

The AFL is germane to the discussion. Its 8 additional teams that take players. Sure, originally they may not have had a deal with the NFL over how to coordinate drafts (not sure they ever really did). But considering the AFL did well in the initial super bowls, they were getting valid talent that wasn't going to the NFL.

 

Therefore, those 8 teams matter when discussing who went where and how many were chosen in a given year.

 

And remember, 29th pick overall was a 2nd round draft pick prior to the Panthers and Jaguars.

 

Granted, times have changed, and QB's go top 10 overall now, simply because it is hard to find 32 bonafide starters every year. There are always teams, every year, that are starving for a QB.

 

If every team had at least a decent QB, then half these drafts since 1996 that had 1st and 2nd round QB's would have had zero QB's drafted prior to round 3.

 

Now stop being a butthead in the way you respond to me.

[ballpeen]

it still doesn't make sense, but Ok, it won't be a butthead.

 

 

The fact still remains he was the 29th player selected and there are 32 teams in the league today....and have been for more than a few years, but it is far from "the change isn't as drastic as you made it out to be".

 

It is what it is

[Pumpkin Eater]

in a game like the NFL, past statistics have no bearing on the future. These aren't scientific laws as some people like to make them out to be.

 

For instance, the Cleveland Browns have never won the AFC north. does that mean they never will?

[The Gipper]

Note to Thaak. The LA Rams did use a platoon QB system with Van Brocklin and Bob Waterfield. And, FYI, both were inducted into the PFHOF!

[The Gipper]

I know we have been through this before some time back.....take Tarkenton as an example....his draft slot when he was drafted(not going to look up the exacts) would have made him a late first rounder today when taking in to account the number of teams drafting players....maybe a 12 team league v a 32 team league.

 

 

But I agree...lightening can strike twice, so lets see how it works out.

 

 

I will say that if things go sour this year and we have a shot at a top QB next year, I wouldn't let Colt sway my opinion and keep from drafting him.

 

 

 

 

So what if you end up with 2 good QBs....QB's always draw a premium in a trade.

 

 

Peen, one of the reasons I only went back to 1995 was because of the situation you describe: the expanded number of teams drafting. Though I think in Tarkenton's case he would have been a mid to early second rounder today given his draft position.

[The Gipper]

Here's the top 5 QB's with most wins in NCAA career.

 

45--Colt McCoy--Texas

42--David Greene--Georgia

39--Peyton Manning--Tennessee

38--Ken Dorsey--Miami (Fla)

37--Dan Marino--Pittsburgh

 

Two of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the NFL are on that list, hopefully he can make it 3

 

Of course those numbers can be skewed by the fact that more games are being played now by colleges.

Whatever happened to David Greene? He may have been no better than Cornelius Greene.

[samoth]

It doesn't matter where a QB is drafted. Brady was a 6th rounder and Moon and Warner were undrafted.

 

All of the following 3rd rounders were starters in the league at some point. Sure, they weren't all All-Stars, but neither are 100% of 1st rounders.

 

Eric Zeier, Cleveland

Brian Griese, Denver

Chris Redman, Baltimore

Josh McCown, Ariz.

Chris Simms, Tampa

Matt Schaub, Atl.

Andrew Walter, Oak

Charlie Frye, Cle

Brody Croyle, KC

Trent Edwards, Buff.

 

[shepwrite]

Of course those numbers can be skewed by the fact that more games are being played now by colleges.

Whatever happened to David Greene? He may have been no better than Cornelius Greene.

 

Well, look at the programs. They always win a lot of games. You start a lot of games for Texas, Georgia, USC, Alabama, etc., chances are you're gonna win a lot of them.

 

Again, I find it interesting to look at quarterbacks who find success for the teams that actually drafted them, given that's what we're hoping for with McCoy (and yes, I'm hoping for it). As far as guys picked after round one, only Romo and Brady have gone onto significant success for their original team. We'll see how Kolb and Henne do. I've always thought round 2 was a weird black hole for QBs, because the 2nd round talents usually get pushed up into round one because of the position.

 

No doubt that development time/opportunity disrupts the data. Most guys drafted after round 2 are NOT looked at as probable starters. There might be a glimmer of hope, but QBs drafted that late are usually headed to teams who already have a quarterback, not teams desperately needing a starter. Which explains why they tend to find success with other teams (Schaub, Hasselbeck).

 

There really isn't a very good history for third round picks doing anything with their first teams. Frye, Walter, Edwards, and Orton were all given extensive opportunities with their first teams and didn't look like steals. The Browns have tried to make starters of third rounders twice -- Zeier and Frye -- and it didn't work out either time.

 

Yes, statistically speaking, quarterback is the most first-round-centric position in the NFL. BUT... Holmgren is devising a fairly unique situation for McCoy. He believes he was worthy of a higher pick and was a steal at 85, but acknowledges that he needs time to physically and experientially grow into an NFL quarterback (he's small, light in the arm, and played in a non-pro offense). He's looking at it like a bit of a science project. He thinks McCoy's athleticism, football smarts, and accuracy are tailor made for the WCO we may or may not be playing by 2011 or 2012, but I'd bet on will be playing.

 

And by the time a new offense is installed, Holmgren envisions McCoy as ready and eager to take the wheel. We'll see.

[samoth]

Hate to burst your bubble Shep, but Joe Montana was a 3rd round pick who had some success with the team that drafted him.

 

Brian Sipe was a 17th rounder. Bart Starr 18th.

[The Gipper]

Hate to burst your bubble Shep, but Joe Montana was a 3rd round pick who had some success with the team that drafted him.

 

Brian Sipe was a 17th rounder. Bart Starr 18th.

 

 

I think he was saying "as a general rule". Sure there are exceptions, but they are rarer these days. There is probably better scouting now, and the likes of Sipe, Starr, Unitas beig drafted in late late rounds may not happen as much now as then. A few obvious ones fall through the cracks: Brady, Romo, Kurt Warner. But, in probably 7 or 8 cases out of 10 you are going to get your superstar QB in the first round. (Its just that the odds are 50/50 that the first rounder you take will live up to the choice. Just look at that list)

[Thaak]

Note to Thaak. The LA Rams did use a platoon QB system with Van Brocklin and Bob Waterfield. And, FYI, both were inducted into the PFHOF!

 

 

Thanks! I watched this cool Top 10 QB Tandem's thing on NFL Network, and that was I think #3 on the list, but its been several months and forgot the other guy.

 

Funny thing is, Van Brocklin seems to be the guy most people talk about, but from what I remember of the show, Waterfield was the better QB.

[The Gipper]

What is the point since about 20 first round QB's won the Bowl so far..........????????????????????

 

 

The point is to ponder the odds of the potential future success of our recent 3rd round QB selection. With a few exceptions the 3rd round QBs denoted here have not been greatly successful NFL QBs. Hopefully, we will have hooked one of those rare exceptions. What you can do for us is to advise us on what steps the Browns need to take to assure that McCoy is indeed one of those successes. You have your mission soldier!

[Thaak]

And by the time a new offense is installed, Holmgren envisions McCoy as ready and eager to take the wheel. We'll see.

 

There is absolutely no evidence, that should our offense be even slightly successful by showing improvement and progress, and both Mangini and Daboll prove their worth, that we will change our offensive scheme. In my mind, changing scheme just to change it, when you have the pieces in place that make the old scheme work, is ludicrous.

 

Making comments that intimate that the scheme is going to change is stupid.

[Thaak]

The point is to ponder the odds of the potential future success of our recent 3rd round QB selection. With a few exceptions the 3rd round QBs denoted here have not been greatly successful NFL QBs. Hopefully, we will have hooked one of those rare exceptions. What you can do for us is to advise us on what steps the Browns need to take to assure that McCoy is indeed one of those successes. You have your mission soldier!

 

I'll take a stab at that one:

 

1) Bring him along slowly, like Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers. {By all accounts, this is going to happen at least for 2010}

 

2) Give him a good mentoring veteran QB to help him along. {Delhomme is this for showing leadership and moxy... we will see if he shows him how to play}

 

3) Give him excellent pass protection so he can grow into the decision making process without having to be afraid he's going to be broken. {The left side is done, lets home the right side gels}

 

4) Give him a good running game so that play action passing actually works. {#8 in the league rushing over the last 8 games of 2009. Seems that our rushing attack will be better this year.}

 

5) Give him a good group of WR's that actually will catch the ball and make him look good with circus catches and excellent adjustment on long balls. {jury is way out still on this one. Although I suppose Tom Brady didn't need this}

 

6) Give him an OC that will develop the playbook around what he does well (like Sean Payton and Drew Brees) rather than force the QB to run plays he doesn't like or isn't very good at. {Not sure this will happen, as only a few guys do this despite how effective its proven}

 

7) Give him a QB coach that won't try to completely change his mechanics if (NOTE: I said IF) they work simply because. Just try to enhance what already works and focus on footwork, good decision making, and chemistry with your WR's.

 

That's my 7-step process to turning a rookie QB into a star.

[The Gipper]

Thanks! I watched this cool Top 10 QB Tandem's thing on NFL Network, and that was I think #3 on the list, but its been several months and forgot the other guy.

 

Funny thing is, Van Brocklin seems to be the guy most people talk about, but from what I remember of the show, Waterfield was the better QB.

 

Bob Waterfield was the QB for the Rams when they won the 1945 NFL title in Cleveland. In 1950 when the Browns beat the Rams for the NFL title, and again in 1951 when the Rams beat the Browns, Waterfield and Van Brocklin literally shared about 50/50 the QB duties for the Rams. In 1950 Van Brocklin had 233 pass attempts to 213 for Waterfield and in 1951 Van Brocklin had 194 passes and Waterfield 176. In 1952 however Van Brocklin had double the attempts that Waterfield had and by 1953 Waterfield was gone from the Rams. But, for a couple or three years it was a very successful QB tandem, winning one title and losing one that way.

Waterfield was also apparently a big ladies man with the Hollywood starlets. I believe he was dating Jane Russell for a while. He probably got practice handling the football by grabbing her boobs, each of which was about the size of a football.