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Cleveland Browns Rumors: Ray Rice Signed if Isaiah Crowell, Terrance West Struggle?


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My opinion is that he has jumped the shark. You are welcome to disagree, and I see you have taken that route. Which is fine. But you are eventually going to find out that I was right, and here's why:

 

These running backs at the elite level only have so many hits they can take before they start to decline. Every once in awhile there is a Curtis Martin that is playing his best ball at 30, but that is rare.

 

Rice is 28, he has 1430 NFL carries and 369 receptions. He had another 910 college carries and 37 receptions. So, 2,746 times he has been the man with the ball with everyone trying to kill him ... that's a lot of hits.

 

He is 5'9" 195 lbs. That is a small back to take that kind of beating. Between 2010 and 2011 alone, he carried the ball 598 times, and was thrown to another 187 times.

 

Kudos to Baltimore for getting the most possible out of him. But why do you want to be the team that gets the aftermath?

 

Pro Football Reference lists "similar players" who are players that have had similar careers of length and quality. Here are Rice's matches:

 

Billy Sims, Gale Sayers, Jamaal Charles, William Andrews, Terrell Davis, Robert Smith, Abner Haynes, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Deuce McAllister

 

So let's take a look at when they "jumped the shark":

 

Billy Sims, Done at 29

Gale Sayers*, Done at 28, last good season at 26

Jamaal Charles Going strong at 28

William Andrews, Done at 28 (failed comeback at 31)

Terrell Davis, Done at 29, last good season at 26

Robert Smith, Done at 28

Abner Haynes, done at 30, last good year at 27

Arian Foster, Going strong at 28

LeSean McCoy, going strong at 26

Deuce McAllister, Done at 30, last good year at 28

 

Here are additional guys that they list as "similar careers through six years"

 

O.J. Simpson, Done at 32, last good year at 29

Clinton Portis, Done at 29, last good year at 27

Freeman McNeil, Done at 33, last good year at 29

Marcus Allen, Done at 37

Mark van Eeghen, Done at 31, last good year at 28

Adrian Peterson, Going strong through 28

Ricky Williams, Done at 34 , last good year at 32

 

So, Sims, Sayers, Andres, Davis, Smith, Hayes, Mcallister, Simpson, Portis, McNeil and Van Eeghan ... 11 guys shot by age 29

 

Allen & Williams ... 2 Guys effective at 29 and beyond.

 

2 out of 13 completed careers

 

Charles, Foster, McCoy and Peterson ... going strong ... odds are they start tailing off soon, but there could be a Marcus Allen in the bunch

 

So what kind of candidate is Rice to be an Allen and not a typical guy that is done by 29 (next year)?

 

Well let's look at his career arc:

 

2011 24 BAL 291 carries 1364 yards 12 TDs 4.7 ypc

2012 25 BAL 257 carries 1143 yards 9 TDs 4.4 ypc

2013 26 BAL 214 carries 660 yards 4 TDs 3.1 ypc

 

Dropoff from 24 to 25.

Dramatic dropoff from 25 to 26

 

This is your candidate to flourish at 28?

 

So if you take into account all factors: History (15 % of similar backs were effective after his current age), size (much smaller than the average of all these backs), injury (injured hip his last season), and production (dramatic dropoff over last two seasons) I'm going to go ahead and say he's a risky proposition.

 

So you are the Browns and you look at this guy's last season and current age compared to what you have on the roster:

 

Player A (Crow), Age 22, 148 att 607 yds 4 Tds 4.1 ypc

Player B (West) Age 24, 171 att 673 yds 4 Tds 3.9 ypc

Player C (Rice) Age 28, 214 att 660 yds 4 Tds 3.1 ypc

Player D (Johnson) Age 21, 3rd round pick

 

So you got the guy with 1,430 carries of tread on the tire who is 4-7 years older than the other three guys and was less productive in his last season than the two that played last year.

 

Three developing backs, all healthy and young, two of whom produced as rookies in an offense with not much of a passing game to scare anyone.

 

Player A is only 22 and showed great promise as a rookie. Player B was drafted in the third round last year and may not have even tapped his potential yet. Player C is expected to come right in and be the "lightning" back. Player D was once great, but has taken a lot of hits, had his numbers decline dramatically for consecutive years and is at an age where NFL backs traditionally tail off quickly to the end of their careers.

 

You're Pettine. Which three do you want go with?

 

Oh ... and you're Farmer, The three young backs are all on team-friendly rookie contracts, while the former pro bowler will want go somewhere where he is promised a role and get paid for that past performance that Baltimore worked out of him.

 

You're giving up a roster spot, and lineup spot, of one of these three guys to hire a guy whose best years are undoubtedly behind him?

 

Ok, well I hope you are GM in my division, because we'll just send over our leftovers after we've taken the best years out of them and hope you give up on a 24 year old with NFL starting RB skills.

 

Zombo

Z.....why would you think that Rice should get paid for his past performance? Or, should I say, why does Rice or his agent think he should get paid for his past performance?

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My opinion is that he has jumped the shark. You are welcome to disagree, and I see you have taken that route. Which is fine. But you are eventually going to find out that I was right, and here's why:

 

These running backs at the elite level only have so many hits they can take before they start to decline. Every once in awhile there is a Curtis Martin that is playing his best ball at 30, but that is rare.

 

Rice is 28, he has 1430 NFL carries and 369 receptions. He had another 910 college carries and 37 receptions. So, 2,746 times he has been the man with the ball with everyone trying to kill him ... that's a lot of hits.

 

He is 5'9" 195 lbs. That is a small back to take that kind of beating. Between 2010 and 2011 alone, he carried the ball 598 times, and was thrown to another 187 times.

 

Kudos to Baltimore for getting the most possible out of him. But why do you want to be the team that gets the aftermath?

 

Pro Football Reference lists "similar players" who are players that have had similar careers of length and quality. Here are Rice's matches:

 

Billy Sims, Gale Sayers, Jamaal Charles, William Andrews, Terrell Davis, Robert Smith, Abner Haynes, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Deuce McAllister

 

So let's take a look at when they "jumped the shark":

 

Billy Sims, Done at 29

Gale Sayers*, Done at 28, last good season at 26

Jamaal Charles Going strong at 28

William Andrews, Done at 28 (failed comeback at 31)

Terrell Davis, Done at 29, last good season at 26

Robert Smith, Done at 28

Abner Haynes, done at 30, last good year at 27

Arian Foster, Going strong at 28

LeSean McCoy, going strong at 26

Deuce McAllister, Done at 30, last good year at 28

 

Here are additional guys that they list as "similar careers through six years"

 

O.J. Simpson, Done at 32, last good year at 29

Clinton Portis, Done at 29, last good year at 27

Freeman McNeil, Done at 33, last good year at 29

Marcus Allen, Done at 37

Mark van Eeghen, Done at 31, last good year at 28

Adrian Peterson, Going strong through 28

Ricky Williams, Done at 34 , last good year at 32

 

So, Sims, Sayers, Andres, Davis, Smith, Hayes, Mcallister, Simpson, Portis, McNeil and Van Eeghan ... 11 guys shot by age 29

 

Allen & Williams ... 2 Guys effective at 29 and beyond.

 

2 out of 13 completed careers

 

Charles, Foster, McCoy and Peterson ... going strong ... odds are they start tailing off soon, but there could be a Marcus Allen in the bunch

 

So what kind of candidate is Rice to be an Allen and not a typical guy that is done by 29 (next year)?

 

Well let's look at his career arc:

 

2011 24 BAL 291 carries 1364 yards 12 TDs 4.7 ypc

2012 25 BAL 257 carries 1143 yards 9 TDs 4.4 ypc

2013 26 BAL 214 carries 660 yards 4 TDs 3.1 ypc

 

Dropoff from 24 to 25.

Dramatic dropoff from 25 to 26

 

This is your candidate to flourish at 28?

 

So if you take into account all factors: History (15 % of similar backs were effective after his current age), size (much smaller than the average of all these backs), injury (injured hip his last season), and production (dramatic dropoff over last two seasons) I'm going to go ahead and say he's a risky proposition.

 

So you are the Browns and you look at this guy's last season and current age compared to what you have on the roster:

 

Player A (Crow), Age 22, 148 att 607 yds 4 Tds 4.1 ypc

Player B (West) Age 24, 171 att 673 yds 4 Tds 3.9 ypc

Player C (Rice) Age 28, 214 att 660 yds 4 Tds 3.1 ypc

Player D (Johnson) Age 21, 3rd round pick

 

So you got the guy with 1,430 carries of tread on the tire who is 4-7 years older than the other three guys and was less productive in his last season than the two that played last year.

 

Three developing backs, all healthy and young, two of whom produced as rookies in an offense with not much of a passing game to scare anyone.

 

Player A is only 22 and showed great promise as a rookie. Player B was drafted in the third round last year and may not have even tapped his potential yet. Player C is expected to come right in and be the "lightning" back. Player D was once great, but has taken a lot of hits, had his numbers decline dramatically for consecutive years and is at an age where NFL backs traditionally tail off quickly to the end of their careers.

 

You're Pettine. Which three do you want go with?

 

Oh ... and you're Farmer, The three young backs are all on team-friendly rookie contracts, while the former pro bowler will want go somewhere where he is promised a role and get paid for that past performance that Baltimore worked out of him.

 

You're giving up a roster spot, and lineup spot, of one of these three guys to hire a guy whose best years are undoubtedly behind him?

 

Ok, well I hope you are GM in my division, because we'll just send over our leftovers after we've taken the best years out of them and hope you give up on a 24 year old with NFL starting RB skills.

 

Zombo

 

Tough to argue against any of that.

 

Look at some of the RBs we signed in the past that were about Rice's age give or take a year. We signed RBs like Terry Kirby, Errict Rhett, Abdul Jabbar, Curtis Enos (for a day or 2) - none of which were about to play their best football. And who could ever forget the front office light bulb moment to sign Rashaan Salaam right after his marijuana sabbatical leave. Peyton Hillis was a 1 year wonder that died off before age 26 or 27.

 

Meanwhile, the Jamal Lewis that once piled up 500 of his 2000 yards against us in just 6 quarters came here as a fraction of his old self. He gave us a decent season in 2007 but was complaining about why a bad team has to practice a little over 2 hours just a year or 2 later. Reuben Droughns topped 1000 yards but only gave us something like 2 rushing TDs the 1 year we were happy to have him. I think he was done by age 27 or 28 too.

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another good name to add to that mix would be Jamal Lewis.....ex Ravens monster runner.....signed by the Browns....washed up at 28.....I see a lot of parallels there....

 

Reason # 301.....I dont want ex Ravens or Stoolers on my team.....already have too much invested in hating them

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whoops......am i crazy??....completely missed this////

 

Meanwhile, the Jamal Lewis that once piled up 500 of his 2000 yards against us in just 6 quarters came here as a fraction of his old self. He gave us a decent season in 2007 but was complaining about why a bad team has to practice a little over 2 hours just a year or 2 later. Reuben Droughns topped 1000 yards but only gave us something like 2 rushing TDs the 1 year we were happy to have him. I think he was done by age 27 or 28 too.

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whoops......am i crazy??....completely missed this////

 

Meanwhile, the Jamal Lewis that once piled up 500 of his 2000 yards against us in just 6 quarters came here as a fraction of his old self. He gave us a decent season in 2007 but was complaining about why a bad team has to practice a little over 2 hours just a year or 2 later. Reuben Droughns topped 1000 yards but only gave us something like 2 rushing TDs the 1 year we were happy to have him. I think he was done by age 27 or 28 too.

 

No big deal. I'm glad someone else had a similar thought about that to be honest.

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