The Gipper Posted December 30, 2015 Report Share Posted December 30, 2015 Gentlemen: Here is the list of the last Baker's dozen Quarterbacks that were taken with the #1 overall pick in the draft...and their current status: Jameis Winston...starting for Buccaneers Andrew Luck....starting for Colts....when healthy Cam Newton...starting for Panthers Sam Bradford...starting for Eagles Matt Stafford...starting for Lions Jamarcus Russell...XXXed out of league Alex Smith...starting for Chiefs Eli Manning...starting for Giants Carson Palmer...starting for Cardinals David Carr...XXXed out of league Tim Couch...XXXed out of league Peyton Manning...starting for Broncos ...when healthy So, in reality, taking a QB #1 overall isn't so bad. The only true bust was Russell. Couch took a team from paper to the playoffs before suffering career ending injuries. Carr also started a paper team and was the victim of a bad team...and no OL (kinda like Couch) But, I guess since it is unlikely the Browns will have #1 overall.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted December 30, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2015 Going back to the same time when Peyton Manning was #1 overall......here are the QBs taken with the #2 overall pick: Ryan Leaf 1998 one pick after Manning Donovan McNabb one pick after Couch Robert Griffin III one pick after Luck Marcus Mariota on pick after Winston I think based on this chances are better at #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal312 Posted December 31, 2015 Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 Did anyone watch Memphas vs Auburn today? Paxton Lynch is not good. He's certainly not first round material. The hype around him is just what it is and nothing more. If Browns draft Lynch after passing on Carr, Bridgewater, Petty, Garappolo, then I will know they are truly insane. Farmer blew it! But don't compound the mistakes by making more and more. Get Bosa and the players you need and draft Cardale or someone else in the third round. Lynch is no where near what we need at QB and we need receivers and a bonafide running back. It's going to be a challenge I hope they're up to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted December 31, 2015 Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 QB taken at #2 and 2nd QB taken are two very different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted December 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 QB taken at #2 and 2nd QB taken are two very different things. NSS.....but the fact is, since 1998....EVERY QB that was taken with the #2 overall pick was taken behind a QB taken with the #1 pick. So, that is an odd coincidence......and here are the facts going back to 1960: Three other times when a QB was taken #2 overall.....another QB was taken at #1: 1993 Drew Bledsoe taken @1, Rick Mirer taken #2 1971 Jim Plunkett taken #1, Archie Manning taken #2 1964 AFL draft: Jack Concannon taken #1, Pete Beathard taken #2 But, it has happened three times since 1960 (or, if you will one time since the common draft began in 1966) where a QB was taken #2 but it was not a QB taken at #1: 1973 John Matuscak DE taken #1, Bert Jones QB taken #2 1961 Tommy Mason RB taken #1, Norm Snead QB taken #2 1960 Billy Cannon TE taken #1, George Izo QB taken #2 So....just for shits and giggle.....if the Browns took Lynch/Goff at #2 (and the Tits took Bosa or Ole Miss tackle at #1)....it would be the first time since Bert Jones that such a thing happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted December 31, 2015 Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 QB taken at #2 and 2nd QB taken are two very different things. Couldnt agree more.....plenty of years where there are no QB's at the top....because none are good enough to be there.... And just deciding to pick one at #1 or #2 does not make him worthy..... Gip....as an example.....it sounds like you're saying if we picked GOFF at #1 he would be more successful, than if we picked him at #2 or #10...... But....in reality....no matter where you pick him....Goff is still Goff..... So.....this year....there isnt a QB who stands out as an overall #1.....so if you just pick a guy and insert him into the #1 or #2, it does not, in any way, imply he will be more successful..... He has to be worth it.....and some years there just isnt anyone who is... And if you did what woody said.....and instead of listing overall #1 & #2's.....you listed the first and second QB's picked period.....you'd see a huge difference in the quality.....(cause lots of teams force it....ala Manziel and Quinn) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted December 31, 2015 Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 Using that theory.....instead of overall 1 & 2.....lets look at the first 2 picked....last 10 years..... 2015: Marriota #1......Winston #2 2014: Bortles #3......Manziel #22 2013: Manuel #16.....Smith #39 2012: Luck #1........RGIII #2 2011: Newton #1.......Locker #8 2010: Bradford #1......Tebow #25 2009: Stafford #1.......Sanchez #5 2008: Ryan #3.......... Flacco #18 2007: Russell #1........Quinn #22 2006: Young #3..........Leinert #10 So.....there are your top 2 QB's from each season.....out of the 20 listed, I personally consider 11(55%)(in red) of them as 1st round busts.....meaning, to date, they have not played well....earned & maintained a starters role.....or even stayed in the league.... I count only 4 or 5 that Id consider to be "franchise type" QB's...(25%)......(so far) And I count only 1 who Id consider even remotely close to being elite/super star.....and he's just getting there now(Cam)... So...over 10 years and first 20 QB's picked.....and I see one " big star" so far........and a handful of good ones.... And a bunch of duds and "undecideds"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted December 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 Couldnt agree more.....plenty of years where there are no QB's at the top....because none are good enough to be there.... And just deciding to pick one at #1 or #2 does not make him worthy..... Gip....as an example.....it sounds like you're saying if we picked GOFF at #1 he would be more successful, than if we picked him at #2 or #10...... I am only pointing out the fact that of the many QBs taken #1 overall since 1998....a vast majority of them are to this day starting QBs in the NFL. (And I guess I only point out that there have been 12 QBs taken #1....where only 4 were taken at #2) But....in reality....no matter where you pick him....Goff is still Goff..... So.....this year....there isnt a QB who stands out as an overall #1.....so if you just pick a guy and insert him into the #1 or #2, it does not, in any way, imply he will be more successful..... I am only pointing out historical trends.......the #2s have not been as successful as the #1s. What can I say? Well, I can say: If you are looking at historical trends....the only guy taken at #2 where the guy taken before him was not a QB is Bert Jones.....and Bert Jones was a mighty damn good QB. So...if the Browns took a QB at #2....and he turned out to be as good as Bert Jones....that would be sweet for the Brown IMO. He has to be worth it.....and some years there just isnt anyone who is... FYI....I don't think Goff or Lynche will turn out to be as good as Bert Jones....so I say pass on them And if you did what woody said.....and instead of listing overall #1 & #2's.....you listed the first and second QB's picked period.....you'd see a huge difference in the quality.....(cause lots of teams force it....ala Manziel and Quinn) Sure....you never know what you might see if you do that.....but since it is Woody's idea....or yours....I will leave it up to you to do that list. Then you can both prove your own points with it...and you don't have to ask me to do it for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted December 31, 2015 Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 Couldnt agree more.....plenty of years where there are no QB's at the top....because none are good enough to be there.... And just deciding to pick one at #1 or #2 does not make him worthy..... Gip....as an example.....it sounds like you're saying if we picked GOFF at #1 he would be more successful, than if we picked him at #2 or #10...... I am only pointing out the fact that of the many QBs taken #1 overall since 1998....a vast majority of them are to this day starting QBs in the NFL. (And I guess I only point out that there have been 12 QBs taken #1....where only 4 were taken at #2) But....in reality....no matter where you pick him....Goff is still Goff..... So.....this year....there isnt a QB who stands out as an overall #1.....so if you just pick a guy and insert him into the #1 or #2, it does not, in any way, imply he will be more successful..... I am only pointing out historical trends.......the #2s have not been as successful as the #1s. What can I say? Well, I can say: If you are looking at historical trends....the only guy taken at #2 where the guy taken before him was not a QB is Bert Jones.....and Bert Jones was a mighty damn good QB. So...if the Browns took a QB at #2....and he turned out to be as good as Bert Jones....that would be sweet for the Brown IMO. He has to be worth it.....and some years there just isnt anyone who is... FYI....I don't think Goff or Lynche will turn out to be as good as Bert Jones....so I say pass on them And if you did what woody said.....and instead of listing overall #1 & #2's.....you listed the first and second QB's picked period.....you'd see a huge difference in the quality.....(cause lots of teams force it....ala Manziel and Quinn) Sure....you never know what you might see if you do that.....but since it is Woody's idea....or yours....I will leave it up to you to do that list. Then you can both prove your own points with it...and you don't have to ask me to do it for you. I already did it......look up.....^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted December 31, 2015 Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 and the list of #3 QB taken is even worse.....................here are the last 10....... Bryce Petty Teddy Twatwater Mike Glennon Ryan Tannehill Blaine Gabbert Jimmy Clausen Josh Freeman Brian Brohm Kevin Kolb Jay Cultler So.....looks like a good idea to stay away from the 3rd one available too..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted December 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 I already did it......look up.....^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ I guess I didn't see your post when I put mine up. Thanks boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted December 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 Using that theory.....instead of overall 1 & 2.....lets look at the first 2 picked....last 10 years..... 2015: Marriota #1......Winston #2 2014: Bortles #3......Manziel #22 2013: Manuel #16.....Smith #39 2012: Luck #1........RGIII #2 2011: Newton #1.......Locker #8 2010: Bradford #1......Tebow #25 2009: Stafford #1.......Sanchez #5 2008: Ryan #3.......... Flacco #18 2007: Russell #1........Quinn #22 2006: Young #3..........Leinert #10 So.....there are your top 2 QB's from each season.....out of the 20 listed, I personally consider 11(55%)(in red) of them as 1st round busts.....meaning, to date, they have not played well....earned & maintained a starters role.....or even stayed in the league.... I count only 4 or 5 that Id consider to be "franchise type" QB's...(25%)......(so far) Which ones are these? And I count only 1 who Id consider even remotely close to being elite/super star.....and he's just getting there now(Cam)... So...over 10 years and first 20 QB's picked.....and I see one " big star" so far........and a handful of good ones.... And a bunch of duds and "undecideds"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted December 31, 2015 Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 I guess I didn't see your post when I put mine up. Thanks boss. So...if you add these to your lists.....it's pretty obvious you need to tap the one guy a year who's worth anything.....if he exists.... cause the second and third ones tend not to do well......at all..... Using that theory.....instead of overall 1 & 2.....lets look at the first 2 picked....last 10 years..... 2015: Marriota #1......Winston #2 2014: Bortles #3......Manziel #22 2013: Manuel #16.....Smith #39 2012: Luck #1........RGIII #2 2011: Newton #1.......Locker #8 2010: Bradford #1......Tebow #25 2009: Stafford #1.......Sanchez #5 2008: Ryan #3.......... Flacco #18 2007: Russell #1........Quinn #22 2006: Young #3..........Leinert #10 I count only 4 or 5 that Id consider to be "franchise type" QB's...(25%)......(so far) Which ones are these? My 5 would be Ryan, Stafford, Flacco, Newton and Luck......(so far)..... And, Id say, Marriota & Winston are looking fairly decent and have a good chance of getting to franchise status too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westside Steve Posted December 31, 2015 Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 Too much work for me but maybe the Gipper can help. What were the records of the teams that took those quarterbacks the last couple or three seasons before they did? WSS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted December 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 Extrapolating....here are a few names of people that were taken as the 4th or lower QB taken in a draft: Derek Carr Brock Osweiler Russell Wilson Nick Foles Kurt Cousins Andy Dalton Colin Kaepernick Ryan Mallet Trent Edwards Kyle Orton Matt Schaub Luke McCown Rex Grossman Josh McCown Daunte Culpepper Brian Griese Neil O'Donnell Jim Harbaugh Rich Gannon Ken O'Brien Dan Marino Joe Montana Joe Ferguson Dan Fouts Ken Anderson Joe Theisman Ken Stabler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted December 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 Too much work for me but maybe the Gipper can help. What were the records of the teams that took those quarterbacks the last couple or three seasons before they did? WSS Not sure what you are asking....and it sounds like too much work for me as well. But.....if you are referring to what were the records of teams that took QBs with the first or second overall pick through the years....I would say: pretty shitty. After all, they were awarded the #1 or #2 pick. (unless a trade....like the RGIII trade was made.) On the list of "2d QB taken regardless of draft slot" taking a look at it....in two cases I know, Quinn and JMZ, those were our 2d picks in the first round. And remember, the Jets got Sanchez using a pick traded FROM the Browns in a trade up. If you take into account the trade that got us Weeden......the Browns have been very active at Quarterback dealing in the first round of the draft. Or, as Shakespeare said: A lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted December 31, 2015 Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 if you are referring to what were the records of teams that took QBs with the first or second overall pick....I would say: pretty shitty. HA!....thats about right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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