Furious Styles Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 "Worked for Billy Bean", said Jimmy. What happens when he shows up and he isn't Jonah Hill and Jimmy fires him? Oakland A's haven't won squat under Billy Bean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zombo Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 This could not be good for Dwayne Bowe. Zombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miktoxic Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 This could not be good for Dwayne Bowe. Zombo he's still a brown? looks like the first probs this new consensus money/#'s group will have to deal with is paying all the people still under contract that no longer work for the team. great start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoorta Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 The thing about football versus baseball is that there isn't nearly as many of these "advanced metrics" The patriots may be an example of a team that uses some of these advanced metrics to select their players - but they also have Tom Brady. Maybe they'll make a moneyball 2 in 10 years about the Browns after we win 5 super bowls and revolutionize the game....one can dream. Baseball ain't football guys. There's a thing in the businesses world called paralysis by analysis. Will those "advanced metrics" take into account character issues- Manziel, Gilbert? The bottom line is- are the guys football players? Metrics would have said pass on guys like Ray Lewis & Steve Largent (too slow), and take guys like Vernon Gholston & every other workout warrior you can think of. Just because you can run a 4.3 won't make you a great WR, right Willis Adams & Steve Holden? A lot of college tackles = Mike Junkin. I'll sit this one out until the dust settles- but as Princess Leila said in the first Star Wars "I have a bad feeling about this." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Bone Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 http://news.yahoo.com/browns-just-hired-baseball-executive-175441605.html?nf=1 The Browns just hired a baseball executive to run their team, and it could change football forever The Cleveland Browns made a surprising move on Tuesday when they announced the hiring of Paul DePodesta as Chief Strategy Officer. DePodesta's previous title was the New York Mets' Vice President of Player Development and Amateur Scouting. DePodesta not only helped build the Mets team that went to the World Series this year, he was a key figure in the Oakland A's "Moneyball" team. According to ESPN's Chris Mortensen and Ed Werder, the only two people above DePodesta are Browns president Alec Scheiner and owner Jimmy Haslam — he'll work above the newly hired executive vice president of football operations, Sashi Brown. Mortensen and Werder report that DePodesta will have a strong say in personnel decisions. It seems strange to pluck DePodesta from the baseball world, but according to Joel Sherman of The New York Post, DePodesta played football at Harvard, and has been on the Browns' radar for several months. This is a clear jump into the analytics world by the Browns. DePodesta clearly played a role with the A's in pushing advanced analytics — a world where football is lacking. The Browns released a statement on the hire of DePodesta, saying, "His approach and ambition to find the best pathways for organizational success transcend one specific sport and his experience as a high level sports executive make him a terrific addition to the Cleveland Browns." They added, "His ability to create better processes and systems throughout organizations, his use of data as a tool to produce better outcomes, and his relentless focus on looking for innovative ways to create more success will be a strong asset as we look to be as comprehensive as possible in our decision making." The NFL is generally considered a traditionalist league where few teams push the boundaries. Some of the most notable names in football are the coaches who are willing to push the boundaries, but the examples are numbered. Bill Belichick routinely experiments with things other coaches wouldn't try, but he has the track record, job safety, and roster to do so. However, Belichick seems more interested in tactical experiments than analytical experiments. Chip Kelly also tried to change things, and his love of sports science has been documented. Kelly, however, failed in other areas and now finds himself out of a job. What, exactly, DePodesta can bring in the analytics department to the Browns is unknown, but it's clear the Browns are trying for a culture change. The Browns already seem like a team on the move after firing their coach, GM, and likely moving on from their first-round quarterback. If this is a sweeping rebuild rooted in analytics and it works for one of the NFL's saddest franchises, the NFL will be watching. And if it fails, the NFL will take note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeputyDawg Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Loving that comment from Mud..."And in consensus groups, vanilla often ends up being the only flavour"....which I agree with and may use in my work life. I'm looking forward to seeing how these appointments work with our new HC and GM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonBrown Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Baseball ain't football guys. There's a thing in the businesses world called paralysis by analysis. Will those "advanced metrics" take into account character issues- Manziel, Gilbert? The bottom line is- are the guys football players? Metrics would have said pass on guys like Ray Lewis & Steve Largent (too slow), and take guys like Vernon Gholston & every other workout warrior you can think of. Just because you can run a 4.3 won't make you a great WR, right Willis Adams & Steve Holden? A lot of college tackles = Mike Junkin. I'll sit this one out until the dust settles- but as Princess Leila said in the first Star Wars "I have a bad feeling about this." That isn't entirely it, it will also be things like when to go for two, when to punt etc. Who knows maybe we will call a timeout at the right time this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonBrown Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 This would sugeest Marrone is an ideal fit for what they're looking for in a HC http://blogs.buffalobills.com/tag/analytics/ There’s no question that analytics is a part of everything that head coach Doug Marrone and his staff do on a daily basis in both the regular season and the offseason. At the same time Buffalo’s head coach is careful as to the amount of weight he allows the analytics to carry when it comes to major decision making as he moves the team forward. In a recent appearance on the John Murphy Show, Marrone addressed the role of analytics in their offseason work. It’s obvious that Marrone believes that analytics absolutely have a role in everything they do from offseason analysis, to film review, to opponent breakdowns and special offseason projects. At the same time Marrone is clear that analytics cannot be applied to their work in a vacuum and that other variables need to be considered. “I think you have to be careful with analytics. You need to have a balance. You need to watch the film. You need to chart it and write things down,” said Marrone. “How I do it is I watch the film. I have an opinion of what I’m seeing. Then I go to the computer reports and I say, ‘Am I right in what I’m seeing?’ If the computer reports say something different then I go back and say, ‘Why didn’t I see it that way?’ “Analytics shows us what we’re doing and where we need to do a better job. It shows us the things we need to concentrate on to beat an opponent. When we don’t go out there and execute the plan and hit the numbers we’re talking about it doesn’t look like we’re doing a good job. But when we do do it it’s impressive.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cuwoohio Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 In the world of analytics, baseball, football, it doesn't matter. Pro football is a perfect fit for it, and if done properly, the Browns could get ahead of the game for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoorta Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 he's still a brown? looks like the first probs this new consensus money/#'s group will have to deal with is paying all the people still under contract that no longer work for the team. great start! LOL, the good thing is Bowe's contract is for only one year guaranteed. He's as good as gone. I think Chud is still collecting, and I can't feel too bad for Pettine- he can soothe his bruised ego by rubbing it with $100 bills from the 2 years he has left on his contract- IIRC Haslam owes him another $7 million. Though I've heard buyouts are not unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingphisher Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Rumor is that the NY Mets have received the Cleveland Browns 2016 first round pick as compensation for DePodesta's rights LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Baseball ain't football guys. There's a thing in the businesses world called paralysis by analysis. Will those "advanced metrics" take into account character issues- Manziel, Gilbert? The bottom line is- are the guys football players? Metrics would have said pass on guys like Ray Lewis & Steve Largent (too slow), and take guys like Vernon Gholston & every other workout warrior you can think of. Just because you can run a 4.3 won't make you a great WR, right Willis Adams & Steve Holden? A lot of college tackles = Mike Junkin. I'll sit this one out until the dust settles- but as Princess Leila said in the first Star Wars "I have a bad feeling about this." So I obviously don't work in football, but you'd be really surprised how advanced metrics have gotten to take into account factors to determine personality. I work in Higher Education and work a lot with recruitment and retention. The software I use from time to time is simply mind blowing and I can't say I'm an expert on it. However, what it does is take into account a lot of details about a student to assign a point value to their fit and future with our campus. This includes background information including family income, hometown, any criminal activity, family size and a lot of other variables like that outside of the obvious grades and test scores. It determines a " personality value" based on that which combines with more traditional metrics in determining probability models. I'd say it is accurate 90% of the time in which students stay and which ones go. It's super incredible stuff and is really cutting edge, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if these guys know all about it. I'm pretty intrigued but I'm admittedly biased heavily as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
letsgojackets Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm on board. I like the hires. Things are only looking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 I hope we can get David Price OK, so, tell us why. Not a name I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'll sit this one out until the dust settles- but as Princess Leila said in the first Star Wars "I have a bad feeling about this." Im a little nervous about it too.....more mind can be better.....but how they arrive at things is the key.....here's how I see this developing.... Within their group, everyone has the opportunity(or responsibility) to bring proposals and opinions.... I dont think it will be all about analytics. Just part of it. And I see Sashi as the guy who will bring that part to the table. So his input will be analytics. But, I think the Coach will bring(hopefully) a football mentality and the clear vision of the "type" of players needed.....mentally and physically.... And then the "GM"....ie: personnel guy.....is gonna bring the scouting info.......and his perspective on who's best, etc.... THEN.....it'll all get thrown on the table and, in a perfect world, all this info mashes up and everyone clearly agrees on who's best and then the picks are made..... But we know better.....that wont happen....sooooooooo.....there are 3 ways the group will work....and it's gotta be one of these... 1) Is more or less a democracy...IE...they vote and majority wins......this would be normal practice, but certainly not consensus.....and who ever gets voted against in this structure, basically has his objections ignored.....so, for example, concerns raised by 1 guy about character issues might get set aside by 2 analytics guys in a vote system....and this is how you end up with a Gilbert or Manziel... 2) Comes from the top down.....meaning everyone brings their stuff to the table and they all discuss and agree....but the actual decision is still made by one guy....which is worse than the vote system, because it still requires one person to weigh, discard or choose what info to follow.....and if Shashi is that guy, he could have a bias toward analytics over what a coach or GM feels in his gut.... 3) True consensus(which is what I thing Jimmy wants)....is when everybody agrees. Period. So the discussion MUST continue until there is complete agreement on whats best for the Browns. This is hard to do and often requires discarding polarized options and moving on to the next one. Now, Im certain, a consensus group would NOT have picked johnny(for example). Too many objections, so I say they would have moved on. Tho, Gilbert might still have been picked, as there were no early warnings on him..... So.....lots of words here....sorry bout that....but I think by hearing Jimmys words....a consensus is what he prefers and he's REALLY trying to pick people who have the lack of ego, along with the intellect and patience and maturity to operate this kind of system..... Thats a tough trick..... It can work tho....they just need good information from the analytics, scouts and their coach and the ability to work together.... But...be warned.....concensus ALWAYS plays it safe.....always......and that can be less than exciting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Oakland A's haven't won squat under Billy Bean. They have almost always been in contention. They just needed that one big bat...or big pitcher. So, for now, I will start out with being in contention. The fact is, this whole set up reminds me most of the Bill Walsh 49ers. He was a very analytical guy...and had guys around him....like successor George Seifert who were also very analytical. (about their schemes and the players that would fit into it). So, there can be success. But even all of these guys....Beane, Walsh, Seifert, Belichick etc etc. etc. will tell you that the key is the triggerman. So....rest assured, Sachi and Podestra and whomever else they bring in here will not ignore the need for a superstar QB. Billy Beane never had that guy....but it did allow him to win 100 games a year and compete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Baseball ain't football guys. There's a thing in the businesses world called paralysis by analysis. Will those "advanced metrics" take into account character issues- Manziel, Gilbert? The bottom line is- are the guys football players? Metrics would have said pass on guys like Ray Lewis & Steve Largent (too slow), and take guys like Vernon Gholston & every other workout warrior you can think of. Just because you can run a 4.3 won't make you a great WR, right Willis Adams & Steve Holden? A lot of college tackles = Mike Junkin. I'll sit this one out until the dust settles- but as Princess Leila said in the first Star Wars "I have a bad feeling about this." A. It is Princess Leia....not Leila....and it was Han Solo that said that, not PL. So...you just got geeked on. How does it feel? A bit icky? B. I think there may be a difference between analytics and Combo workout statistics. Analytics, I believe....takes more into account what you actually have done on the field.....your production....NOT your combo workout numbers. I am no expert....but isn't that it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Rumor is that the NY Mets have received the Cleveland Browns 2016 first round pick as compensation for DePodesta's rights LOL! They could use it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 So I obviously don't work in football, but you'd be really surprised how advanced metrics have gotten to take into account factors to determine personality. I work in Higher Education and work a lot with recruitment and retention. The software I use from time to time is simply mind blowing and I can't say I'm an expert on it. However, what it does is take into account a lot of details about a student to assign a point value to their fit and future with our campus. This includes background information including family income, hometown, any criminal activity, family size and a lot of other variables like that outside of the obvious grades and test scores. It determines a " personality value" based on that which combines with more traditional metrics in determining probability models. I'd say it is accurate 90% of the time in which students stay and which ones go. It's super incredible stuff and is really cutting edge, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if these guys know all about it. I'm pretty intrigued but I'm admittedly biased heavily as well. My daughter will be looking for a job in the sports marketing and management area come about the middle of May. Can you do your analytics on her....to help her get a job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hx214 Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim Couch Pulls Out Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 My daughter will be looking for a job in the sports marketing and management area come about the middle of May. Can you do your analytics on her....to help her get a job? Tell her good luck and don't trust a single person she meets after school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Fingers Farmer Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Analytics is all about "The Mean". What good does it do to build a team based on player averages when the owner is blowing everything up every two years. Besides that while analytics can be a useful tool it doesn't work as well in football because of all the added variables. Per analytics: No team should ever punt.. How many pro teams never punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Im a little nervous about it too.....more mind can be better.....but how they arrive at things is the key.....here's how I see this developing.... Within their group, everyone has the opportunity(or responsibility) to bring proposals and opinions.... I dont think it will be all about analytics. Just part of it. And I see Sashi as the guy who will bring that part to the table. So his input will be analytics. But, I think the Coach will bring(hopefully) a football mentality and the clear vision of the "type" of players needed.....mentally and physically.... And then the "GM"....ie: personnel guy.....is gonna bring the scouting info.......and his perspective on who's best, etc.... THEN.....it'll all get thrown on the table and, in a perfect world, all this info mashes up and everyone clearly agrees on who's best and then the picks are made..... But we know better.....that wont happen....sooooooooo.....there are 3 ways the group will work....and it's gotta be one of these... 1) Is more or less a democracy...IE...they vote and majority wins......this would be normal practice, but certainly not consensus.....and who ever gets voted against in this structure, basically has his objections ignored.....so, for example, concerns raised by 1 guy about character issues might get set aside by 2 analytics guys in a vote system....and this is how you end up with a Gilbert or Manziel... 2) Comes from the top down.....meaning everyone brings their stuff to the table and they all discuss and agree....but the actual decision is still made by one guy....which is worse than the vote system, because it still requires one person to weigh, discard or choose what info to follow.....and if Shashi is that guy, he could have a bias toward analytics over what a coach or GM feels in his gut.... 3) True consensus(which is what I thing Jimmy wants)....is when everybody agrees. Period. So the discussion MUST continue until there is complete agreement on whats best for the Browns. This is hard to do and often requires discarding polarized options and moving on to the next one. Now, Im certain, a consensus group would NOT have picked johnny(for example). Too many objections, so I say they would have moved on. Tho, Gilbert might still have been picked, as there were no early warnings on him..... So.....lots of words here....sorry bout that....but I think by hearing Jimmys words....a consensus is what he prefers and he's REALLY trying to pick people who have the lack of ego, along with the intellect and patience and maturity to operate this kind of system..... Thats a tough trick..... It can work tho....they just need good information from the analytics, scouts and their coach and the ability to work together.... But...be warned.....concensus ALWAYS plays it safe.....always......and that can be less than exciting..... Look.....the process works on Project Runway to determine who they kick of the program and who they keep and who they declare a winner. So....if a bunch of models, gay designers, and clothing bitches can come to a consensus about that...why can't these guys come together in a consensus about players and strategies? (see, now you are going to have that image in mind: Sashi, Podestra, Coach X, GM Y....sitting on their stools and debating who will be aufed and who will stay) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Per analytics: No team should ever punt.. How many pro teams never punt. I would bet my car that stats would tell you to punt, I really hope that's a joke I'm not getting. Also, please see my above comment about how statistics do indeed consider added variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob806 Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 It looks like a better structure than what we just had so it's obviously a good start. It should be interesting to see how a guy comes from MLB with no salary cap, to the NFL with a cap and revenue sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Fingers Farmer Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 I would bet my car that stats would tell you to punt, I really hope that's a joke I'm not getting. Also, please see my above comment about how statistics do indeed consider added variables. Keep your car. Analytics is a tool it's not the end all be all to base decisions on. I attached one of several studies on punting PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim Couch Pulls Out Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Keep your car. Analytics is a tool it's not the end all be all to base decisions on. I attached one of several studies on punting I am going to read the shit out of this later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy KGB Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 If you guys want to corner the market on Analytics guys, I hear Phil Emery is available Maybe he can even bring in Marc Trestman to "grow the man". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Keep your car. Analytics is a tool it's not the end all be all to base decisions on. I attached one of several studies on punting The funny part is I've actually skimmed that paper before and it's really pretty interesting to someone like me. Of course it's a tool, but what you said was just wrong unless again I missed a joke or something. Also, I'd again hope you consider that statistical models can take into accounts literally thousands of variables with the programs we have nowadays. Nothing will ever replace the human element, but a computer and very smart people can sure as shit predict it pretty closely a lot of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Fingers Farmer Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 The funny part is I've actually skimmed that paper before and it's really pretty interesting to someone like me. Of course it's a tool, but what you said was just wrong unless again I missed a joke or something. Also, I'd again hope you consider that statistical models can take into accounts literally thousands of variables with the programs we have nowadays. Nothing will ever replace the human element, but a computer and very smart people can sure as shit predict it pretty closely a lot of times. What's funny is your defending analytics until it goes against something you believe to be common sense. So analytics is good as long as it supports your view. For the record I think it's crazy to never punt as well. The whole point was show analytics is only a tool to help make decisions not the sole reference in making them. I'm fine with hiring analytics people I just don't want to build a team using it as my main decision maker "like Haslam might". I fear that he's trying again to prove he's smarter than everyone in the league. Which can only end badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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