Tour2ma Posted February 19, 2016 Report Posted February 19, 2016 Decided to create this thread to track weekly risers and fallers, and Top 15 in the Draft as determined at Play The Draft (PTD). I've also included the "Most Owned" which often captures some Round 2 movers. As I have mentioned before PTD uses a proprietary algorithm to bring numerous mocks rankings and mocks together into one number, the player's FRX. In past years the site has been remarkably accurate in predicting the final order of players drafted. After a couple quiet weeks since the Sr. Bowl things began to heat up this week in anticipation of the Combine. As has been the case since the game's start the Top 15 is headed by LT Laremy Tunsil. Bosa and Ramsey are battling for the 2nd spot while the 4th is a contest between Goff and the hard-charging, Myles Jack. Noah Spence (DE/OLB) continues to be the most owned player in the game based upon his showing at the Sr. Bowl. Over one-fourth of the participants continue to own QB Wentz, WR Braxton Miller and DT/DE Rankins. This week's top riser was DE/OLB Noah Spence with a remarkable 36.4% increase. With this week Noah climbed into the top half of the 1st round. Since the start of PTD on Jan. 26th Noah's value has now risen 125%. Other noteworthy risers for the week are: DT/DEs Washington and Rankins, OLB Jack and DE Buckner. The week's biggest fall was suffered by Round 2's OLB prospect, Su'a Cravens who lost 22.1%. Cravens lost almost his entire amount in one day. Other notable falls were by: DEs Ogbah and Lawson, QBs Lynch and Cook, and local ILB fav, Scooby Wright III, who has now fallen into Round 3.
Mudfly Posted February 19, 2016 Report Posted February 19, 2016 Good to see Scooby dropping....should go even lower following the combine....meaning we could tap him a little later....
gumby73 Posted February 19, 2016 Report Posted February 19, 2016 A 1st round-Goff/Wentz than now a 2nd round-C Martin/OT Springs (pend Mack &Mitchell) reversing my 2nd round picks to now 3rd round- Scooby/Lawson/Ogbah/Calhoun. This could get really interesting but I put my $ on still early. Heard Theadwell may run a terrible 40 time for WR's, your tip of the week..
Tour2ma Posted February 26, 2016 Author Report Posted February 26, 2016 Top 15 this week was relatively quiet... quiet before the storm that is Combine Week. Zeke moved up a couple spots to #12 and thanks primarily to some backsliding by Ramsey, Bosa increased his grip on the 2nd spot. Ownership of most of the high fliers fell this week in a combination of profit taking and anticipation of Combine 40-yd dash stars. Risers included WRs. One new name among the most owned... Cardale Jones. Noah Spence again led the risers for the week, but his rise was less than half that posted the week before. Cardale popped into the bottom of the list, but paled compared to the debut of fellow QB Dak Prescott in the 3rd spot. Corey Coleman came from nowhere to lead the fallers this week.
Tour2ma Posted March 5, 2016 Author Report Posted March 5, 2016 Weekly Update... first one since the Combine... Good news is I've risen to 16th out of 921 in the National Contest with $19,017,175... Bad news is the top player is running away with $23,368,738. In the Top 15: the top 3 (Tunsil/Bosa/Ramsey) have further solidified their spots. Wentz has jumped to the 4th slot while Goff has fallen to Wentz's former spot at 7. Fair amount of shuffling players a position or two. A'shaun Robinson jumped three spots to tie Wentz for biggest move up. Surprisingly, at least to me, was Noah Spence rising a week leading 4 spots. Two names are new to the top 15: Ogbah at 14 and Lawson at 15. Two left the top 15: Jaylon Smith and Reggie Ragland. Overall ownership started to spread out through the week. Despite ownership falling slightly, Wentz is now the most owned player. Former #1, Noah Spence, and Braxton Miller ownership fell the most at 8.7 and 5.7%. respectively. The Combine always includes eye-catching performances by a combination of well-regarded players who exceed expectations and relative unknowns for which there were no expectations. The week's biggest gainer was UH's William Jackson III up a whopping 29.8%. OT John Theus was on his heels rising 29.1%. Of course the Combine also produces disappointments. Sadly the week's biggest loser was Jaylon Smith falling 30.4% on the news of nerve damage in his leg.
Tour2ma Posted March 8, 2016 Author Report Posted March 8, 2016 You're welcome... Here are some positional moves at PTD attributable to the Combine... Combine Winners: Wide Receiver Aaron Resnick Feb 29 2016 at 10:02 am Having been spoiled in recent years by the ridiculous surplus of talented receivers, this crop of pass catchers appears to lack in comparison. If the 40 yard dash times are any indication, this group isn’t one filled with burners. The average receiver forty time of 4.56 at this combine was the slowest in recent memory. Despite that, there were some receivers who likely made themselves a good amount of money this past weekend. Here are some of the combine “winners” at the receiver position and what I would expect their draft stock to look like the rest of the way. Will Fuller: In a draft lacking top end speed, the Notre Dame product showed he had plenty of it. Fuller blew by the field clocking in a 4.32 forty which was tops amongst all receivers. He also had solid showings in drills such as the vertical leap and broad jump which showed off his top end explosiveness. Right now Fuller’s price on PTD reflects him being selected in the middle of the second round, but after this performance there is room for growth. With his ability as a deep threat, some have thrown around a DeSean Jackson comparison for Fuller. However, some teams will have questions about his slender build and that he is more of a body catcher (his smaller hands could also raise concern depending on the organization). Despite that, Fuller’s performance could push him towards the end of the first round with the lack of true deep threats in this class. Josh Doctson: Are you into receivers who were highly productive in college that also display some freakish athleticism at the combine? If so, Doctson may be the one for you. Checking in at 6’2” 205, the TCU wideout ran a 4.5 forty, posted a 41” vertical, and had a broad jump just short of 11 feet. In short, he made a decent chunk of change with that showing. Some had questions concerning Doctson’s quickness but running faster than expected certainly helps him there. If you watch Doctson, one thing you’ll notice is his willingness to just go up and pluck the ball out of the air. It’s a skill top receivers such as DeAndre Hopkins have showed in recent years. The current price on PTD reflects that Doctson will be selected either at the tail end of the first round or early second. After that showing, I’d guess he won’t be around to that point especially with two receiver needy teams (Vikings and Bengals) picking at 23 and 24. Sterling Shepard: At this point, Shepard appears to be the peoples champ at receiver as analysts aren’t exactly shy when it comes to singing his praises. During his Oklahoma tenure, Shepard established himself for his route running and ability to win on the outside and in the slot. While many saw him playing on the inside at the next level, his forty time would be an interesting indicator of potential roles. He managed to post a time of 4.48 which was impressive considering many thought times in the 4.5’s would be more realistic. With a price on PTD that is reflective of an early third rounder, Shepard could be one of if not the top bargain available at the moment. Having earned comparisons to Randall Cobb and Tyler Lockett with the ability to create separation, I’d be shocked if was still on the board past the top 40 or so picks. https://playthedraft.com/posts/combine-winners-wide-receiver
Tour2ma Posted March 8, 2016 Author Report Posted March 8, 2016 And... Combine Winners: DBs Aaron Resnick Mar 1 2016 at 11:03 am With an influx of passing around the league in recent years, defensive backs are being selected in drafts early and often. Last year for example, there were 17 taken in the first three rounds alone which means they would of had end values above $450,000 in Play The Draft. For that reason, positions such as cornerback and safety are nice investments in the game as you know that their will be a heavy run on them. While some will emerge later on in the draft process, there were others who posted impressive numbers at the combine or created some buzz that helped elevated their statuses. Jalen Ramsey: It's hard to believe, but the FSU standout managed to increase the hype surrounding him. It was predicted that Ramsey would test extremely well at the combine and that he did. Checking in at 6'1" 209 pounds, he ran a 4.41 forty, and added a 41.5 inch vertical to go along with a broad jump of 11-3. With comparisons to players such as Patrick Peterson and the ability to fill in at corner or safety, Ramsey is highly unlikely to get past the fifth pick. Oddly enough, while Ramsey is a fantastic prospect he might not be worth it in PTD. From the start, he was a consensus top six or seven pick which limited any "buy low" opportunity. Now at the time of this writing, he is the third most expensive player in the game and should go anywhere from three to five in the draft. There just isn't that much upside in the stock left to be had. If you have Ramsey, your best bet could be to sell and invest in two or three players you feel have high upside on draft day but are currently overlooked. William Jackson III: There were few players who made a bigger name for themselves this past college football season than Jackson. A player who started his collegiate career in junior college before playing at Houston, Jackson managed to get better each year. With the ball skills shown on tape, teams already had to of been very intrigued, but he managed to improve his stock even more. Checking in with ideal size at 6'0" 189 pounds, Jackson clocked in a 4.37 forty and also received high marks for his work in the position drills. Now if you're looking to replace Ramsey with a high upside selection, here is your guy. Currently in PTD, Jackson's salary is reflective of a player that will be selected around the ninth or tenth pick of the second round. After this performance, there is a very good chance he will be gone by the end of the first. Don't be surprised if his stock continues to rise as the draft approaches. Deiondre' Hall: An interesting trend that has developed thanks to the Seahawks "Legion of Boom" is teams and drafniks alike paying more attention to arm length when evaluating defensive backs. The Seahawks minimum length that they look for apparently is around 32, which is not overly common for the position. Here is where this defensive back out of Northern Iowa comes into play. Hall checks in with an arm length of 34 and 3/8 which is comparable to an offensive tackle. It is also worth noting that Hall isn't afraid of contact and showed he will get physical with receivers and in run support. While his timed speed isn't great, teams are going to look and see the recent production of bigger corners such as Trumaine Johnson or envision a potential safety if he added some bulk. On PTD, his price is below the third round salary despite showing recent growth. Being from a small school, the casual fan wouldn't know much about Hall, but there is a very good chance he will selected high enough on day two that his stock could net a nice profit. https://playthedraft.com/posts/combine-winners-defensive-backs
Tour2ma Posted March 12, 2016 Author Report Posted March 12, 2016 PROSPECT STOCKS IMPACTED BY FREE AGENCY Aaron Resnick Mar 11 2016 at 11:03 am We're only a few days into the official start of 2016 NFL season, but that hasn't stopped us from seeing some interesting developments in free agency. Depending on if a team drafts by need or best available, it could drastically change the ultimate landing spot for a player when their name is called. Based on the early transactions we've seen through the first few days, here are some prospects whose stock has been impacted by the early free agency trends. Ezekiel Elliott: Considered by most to be the top running back in this class, Elliott could greatly benefit from some of the league's recent happenings. With some backs getting a decent chunk of change already, the option of paying someone of Elliott's caliber according to the rookie salary scale will certainly be enticing. There are also a few teams that are currently in need of running back within the top half of the first round including two that just swapped picks. While he may not be their first option at number eight, the Eagles are now in need of a back after admitting defeat and trading DeMarco Murray after a disappointing 2015 season. Elliott has the ability to be that foundational back that they thought they had in Murray, so he at least has to be in the conversation. The Dolphins who swapped with the Eagles are also in need of a back. Picking at 13, the Dolphins may be intrigued by the Ohio State product after losing Lamar Miller in free agency. The Giants at 10 due to drafting best available player could also be an option. Regardless, I don't see Elliott falling past the 13th pick at this point. His stock on Play the Draft currently reflects that, but there is still some potential upside. Defensive Linemen: If you've seen some of the deals some of the top defensive linemen have gotten in free agency, you'd understand why a team would love to find their guy who could potentially be an impact player at a low cost. The good news for those interested in addressing their line through the draft is this class is especially deep particularly at defensive tackle. With so many highly touted players in those areas, that leaves a few to slip through the cracks on PTD. One that particularly intrigues me is Kamalei Correa out of Boise State. Despite lining up as a defensive end in college, Correa most likely will translate to an outside linebacker role in the pros. Along with the added versatility is his athleticism that certainly didn't disappoint at the combine. Correa's current price on PTD is reflective of an early third round pick, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we hear his name called in the first round as buzz continues to grow. Christian Hackenberg: Since the draft process started, Hackenberg has been linked to the Texans due to Bill O'Brien coaching him during his freshman year. However, that thinking came to a screeching halt when the team signed Brock Osweiler to a four year deal that shocked the football world. As a result, Hackenberg's stock on PTD has reflected that. On the day Osweiler signed, Hackenberg's stock checked in at $796,119 which reflected a price that hovered around the Texans second round pick. As of this writing, his stock is a little more than $742,000 which would be around the 25th pick of the second round. The good news for Hackenberg is that teams still need quarterbacks so he could very well end up netting a positive return at his current price. He remains a very intriguing prospect to follow leading up to the draft.
Tour2ma Posted March 12, 2016 Author Report Posted March 12, 2016 Weekly Update.... What goes up... I fell to 38th out of 956 this week. In no small part due to forgetting to check and adjust my portfolio one day. Love this game, but if you don't spend a half-hour or so everyday on it, you do get hurt... Fairly quiet Top 15 week again, but there were a few changes: Bosa's FCX fell, but he held the #2 slot... barely over Ramsey who has closed his trailing gap to 0.1. Myles Jack took over 4th spot from Wentz. Zeke moved up 3 spots to #10; he swapped places with A'Shawn Robinson who made the biggest move down. Spence continued last week's fall by 3 more spots to #14. Lawson rose 3 spots and now is at #12. Ogbah was the only name to fall out of the top 15; he was replaced by WR, Corey Coleman now at #15. Ownership continued to flatten, spread across the field. Wentz remained the most owned, but fell from 29.8 to 27.4%. Zeke leaped into the top 15 with 14.0% and is now the 11th most-owned prospect. Josh Doctson saw the biggest rise within the top 15 rising from 17.2 to 19.4% ownership. Players dumped Ogbah dropping him from 15 to 29... The week's risers are a completely new set vs. last week's... not one mover from last week maintained his momentum to the top. Topping the week was OU's diminutive, speedster WR Sterling Shepard, up a whopping 31.8% Zeke added the most value to his stock adding 24.5% and is now worth $2,600,000. DL accounted for 5 of the 15 fastest risers for the week. Same cannot be said for the week's fallers where last week's leader, Jaylon Smith, sadly appears again as does OSU's Washington falling 15.0 and 10.2% respectively. Jaylon has now fallen out of the 1st Rnd according to PTD.... at #32 to be precise. Other notable falls included: Week leader Deiondre Hall fell 16.4%. Top 15 departee Ogbah fell 14.1%. Wentz fell 12.0%... one of 3 QBs to make this list this week.
Tour2ma Posted March 18, 2016 Author Report Posted March 18, 2016 Weekly Update... In keeping with the onset of March Madness, I rebounded this week from my 38th place fall to finish the week 24th out of 1001. Still a long, unlikely climb to the top, but the leaders did come back to the field some this week. He biggest Top 15 news of the week was Ramsey finally overtaking Bosa for the 2nd spot and opening a slim FCX lead. Bosa remains a comfortable third over Jack. The week's biggest mover was Darren Lee leaping onto the list and all the way to the 11th spot. Rankins also rejoined the list this week in its 15th spot. Noah Spence and Corey Coleman left the Top 15. Ownership continued to flatten, but seems more focused at the top. Wentz bled a little more support as ownership fell 1.2%. Most of the other Top ten actually saw their ownership rise as players begin honing in on who they hope will be their Draft Day jumpers. For the week's top Riser look no further than the above mentioned Darren Lee whose value jumped 32.2% during the week. Darren obviously made himself some money a his pro day. Similarly Zeke helped himself and saw a 21.9% rise, te week's 6th highest. Zeke was one of a handful of repeats from last week, a handful that included: Ryan Kelly ©, Deion Jones (OLB/SS), and last week's top riser, Sterling Shepard (WR). Sterling compounded his previously week with aother 26.9% increase, good for 3rd place this week. One of the more interesting late risers is Day-2 RB, Kenneth Dixon. Dixon has quietly risen over 40% the past two weeks and is now in the bottom of Round 2. In weekly Faller news, Nkemdiche and Lynch took the week's biggest headers losing nearly a quarter of their value. Both were new to the list this week. The due was followed closely by Board Fav, Scooby Wright, John Theus and Ogbah, who each lost about 1/5th of their value. In the 14th spot, Goff was the only repeat this week. Repeats are fairly rare as the "market" tends to punish a player hard and and fast, and then move on. Often weekly fallers are a good place to shop for next week's risers as players rebound in the short term. Goff has been an exception as he has bled value with the Browns seeming lean to Wentz. However, look for Goff to rebound this coming week with a couple favorable articles emerging and his Pro Day... assuming he doesn't pull a Bridgewater...
Tour2ma Posted March 21, 2016 Author Report Posted March 21, 2016 Had to post this snapshot as we may never see its like again...
Tour2ma Posted April 2, 2016 Author Report Posted April 2, 2016 Been two weeks since I updated... and this will only be a top news update as I am on a back up puter... First, my above post was prophetic as I fell back into the 20's the following day and now am in the mid-30's. This is a game you have to stay on top of. Biggest top 15 news is Bosa's fall to 4th as Jack passed both he and Ramsey on his way to the #2 spot. Most other moves were one spot except A'Shaun Robinson who moved up two spots. Tunsil continues to have a death grip on #1. The week's biggest riser was Conklin (OT) up a stout 20.4%. The biggest faller was DE Bullard down 18.2%.
One Post Posted April 2, 2016 Report Posted April 2, 2016 Good to see Scooby dropping....should go even lower following the combine....meaning we could tap him a little later....Good thing he's failing right now so he can be successful.
Tour2ma Posted April 5, 2016 Author Report Posted April 5, 2016 ***BULLETIN***BULLETIN***BULLETIN***BULLETIN***BULLETIN*** Overnite Wentz lept over three players to take the #2 spot.
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