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‘Never Wrong’ election prediction model picks TRUMP, so model creator DISAVOWS model!

OldBrownsFan

By OldBrownsFan
in POLITICAL DISCUSSION

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OldBrownsFan Newbie

OldBrownsFan

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This is such a weird story – according to a prediction model for presidential elections, el Trumpo should be winning this election. But there’s a catch:

Republican Donald Trump should win the presidency by a slim margin according to a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote since 1988.

Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model done for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics “Crystal Ball” shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.

He added that the model shows a 66 percent chance of a Trump victory.

“Based on a predicted vote share of 48.6 percent for the incumbent party, these results indicate that Trump should be a clear but not overwhelming favorite to defeat Clinton: There should be about a 66 percent chance of a Republican victory,” Abramowitz added.

So no problem right? Oh wait.. the model doesn’t work for el Trumpo:

However, in an unusual move, Abramowitz is throwing his own model under the bus and suggesting that Clinton will win because Trump is so different from past presidential candidates and has such high unfavorability ratings that his election forecast basics can’t be trusted.

“Based on the results of other recent presidential elections, however, as well as Trump’s extraordinary unpopularity, it appears very likely that the Republican vote share will fall several points below what would be expected if the GOP had nominated a mainstream candidate and that candidate had run a reasonably competent campaign. Therefore, despite the prediction of the Time for Change model, Clinton should probably be considered a strong favorite to win the 2016 presidential election as suggested by the results of recent national and state polls,” he concluded on the Crystal Ball site.

 

So… had we picked a competent boring candidate, perhaps of Cuban ancestry, he could have cruised into the Oval Office. But because the electorate decided to snort bathsalts this election, we’re screwed. Hey thanks everybody!! Goodnight!!

 

http://therightscoop.com/never-wrong-election-prediction-model-picks-trump-so-model-creator-disavows-model/

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VaporTrail Proficient

VaporTrail

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This is such a weird story – according to a prediction model for presidential elections, el Trumpo should be winning this election. But there’s a catch:

So no problem right? Oh wait.. the model doesn’t work for el Trumpo:

Republican Donald Trump should win the presidency by a slim margin according to a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote since 1988.

Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model done for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics “Crystal Ball” shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.

He added that the model shows a 66 percent chance of a Trump victory.

“Based on a predicted vote share of 48.6 percent for the incumbent party, these results indicate that Trump should be a clear but not overwhelming favorite to defeat Clinton: There should be about a 66 percent chance of a Republican victory,” Abramowitz added.

So… had we picked a competent boring candidate, perhaps of Cuban ancestry, he could have cruised into the Oval Office. But because the electorate decided to snort bathsalts this election, we’re screwed. Hey thanks everybody!! Goodnight!!

However, in an unusual move, Abramowitz is throwing his own model under the bus and suggesting that Clinton will win because Trump is so different from past presidential candidates and has such high unfavorability ratings that his election forecast basics can’t be trusted.

“Based on the results of other recent presidential elections, however, as well as Trump’s extraordinary unpopularity, it appears very likely that the Republican vote share will fall several points below what would be expected if the GOP had nominated a mainstream candidate and that candidate had run a reasonably competent campaign. Therefore, despite the prediction of the Time for Change model, Clinton should probably be considered a strong favorite to win the 2016 presidential election as suggested by the results of recent national and state polls,” he concluded on the Crystal Ball site.

 

 

http://therightscoop.com/never-wrong-election-prediction-model-picks-trump-so-model-creator-disavows-model/

 

You mean to tell me that the guy whose fans have packed arenas for his daily rallies since October has a chance at winning? Who could have seen this coming? People really need to stop listening to what the media (even NPR, nowadays) is force feeding them, and take a look at what's actually happening around them.

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OldBrownsFan Newbie

OldBrownsFan

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2016_08_11_pres_600.png

That is in line with Crystal Ball founder Larry Sabato's prediction also on the site.

See the two election forecasts here.

 

This map could not look any worse. Former red states like Arizona and Georgia listed as toss ups now. All the swing states either solid democrat or leaning democrat. Former toss up states like Virginia and Colorado now democrat.

 

Luckily we are in early August and these polls are a snap shot of today and Trump has some time to turn it around but pretending all the polls are wrong is not the right strategy. He needs to analyze why he is losing and focus on making improvements. IMO

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VaporTrail Proficient

VaporTrail

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And 2 weeks ago, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight had an "if the election was held today" map that Trump was winning. Trump is the most volatile candidate we've probably ever seen. His highs are really high and his lows are really low. What the map looked like 2 weeks ago isn't what it looks like today. What it looks like today isn't what it will look like in 2 weeks. What it looks like 2 weeks from now, will most likely not look like the map we see in November.

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OldBrownsFan Newbie

OldBrownsFan

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And 2 weeks ago, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight had an "if the election was held today" map that Trump was winning. Trump is the most volatile candidate we've probably ever seen. His highs are really high and his lows are really low. What the map looked like 2 weeks ago isn't what it looks like today. What it looks like today isn't what it will look like in 2 weeks. What it looks like 2 weeks from now, will most likely not look like the map we see in November.

Trump had to get his act together about two months ago. At this point, he's nearly down the toilet with only a hand waving bye-bye still in the bowl.

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Pumpkin Eater Newbie

Pumpkin Eater

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Btw this cycle has had wrong polls. Brexit. Democratic primary Michigan. Indiana.

 

In fact this article raises the question why does Hillary always poll better than her actual performance? It's been happening all primary season with her. Now it's the general election.

 

http://www.inquisitr.com/3060461/bernie-sanders-won-indiana-why-are-the-polls-always-against-bernie/

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bbedward Proficient

bbedward

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Ohio is going to go for trump. I see trump signs all the time, have yet to sea single Hillary sign.

I've seen a few Hillary signs in Lakewood but what else can you expect from this community full of pussies.

 

My mom's neighbor has a Hillary sign in the yard in Parma, but they're literally bat shit insane people - she had to build the biggest privacy fence allowed on their side a couple years ago.

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bbedward Proficient

bbedward

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Btw this cycle has had wrong polls. Brexit. Democratic primary Michigan. Indiana.

 

In fact this article raises the question why does Hillary always poll better than her actual performance? It's been happening all primary season with her. Now it's the general election.

 

http://www.inquisitr.com/3060461/bernie-sanders-won-indiana-why-are-the-polls-always-against-bernie/

She polled better than she actually did in places with exit polls.

 

Without exit polls she did better than the polling suggested - hmmmm

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MLD Woody Grand Master

MLD Woody

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Ohio is going to go for trump. I see trump signs all the time, have yet to sea single Hillary sign.

Because you need a sign in your yard to vote for someone.

 

 

Both candidates suck and have low approval ratings for most people. It's no surprise there aren't a lot of yard signs.

 

If most people think Hilary is the lesser of two evils, you won't see her signs

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VaporTrail Proficient

VaporTrail

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Because you need a sign in your yard to vote for someone.

 

 

Both candidates suck and have low approval ratings for most people. It's no surprise there aren't a lot of yard signs.

 

If most people think Hilary is the lesser of two evils, you won't see her signs

 

I've only met one person irl who is excited to vote for Crooked Hillary, and that person is an extreme SJW.

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MLD Woody Grand Master

MLD Woody

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Right, but you don't need to be excited to vote for someone to actually vote for someone. You just need to hate them less than the other choice.

 

I was talking to some family friends at a party last night. He voted for Kasich in the primary and would be happy to vote for Paul Ryan. But Trump is batshit insane enough that he's voting for Hilary to basically give the Reps four years to fix it. He also blames the situation we're in on the Tea Party.

 

Though I might have convince him to just vote for a third party.

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DieHardBrownsFan Rookie

DieHardBrownsFan

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Right, but you don't need to be excited to vote for someone to actually vote for someone. You just need to hate them less than the other choice.

 

I was talking to some family friends at a party last night. He voted for Kasich in the primary and would be happy to vote for Paul Ryan. But Trump is batshit insane enough that he's voting for Hilary to basically give the Reps four years to fix it. He also blames the situation we're in on the Tea Party.

 

Though I might have convince him to just vote for a third party.

Although you've never voted right?

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Tour2ma Contributor

Tour2ma

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The model's prediction of 51.4 Trump/ 48.6 HRC puts the output withing the absolute error of 2.2. Add that to HRC and she's the 50.8% winner. Just means the result would go against the 2:1 odds favoring Trump.

 

Rather than say he's disavowing the model, it seems to me that Abramowitz is looking for reasons to square his model with polling data. There can be no doubt that from an analysis of spending and state organizations the Trump campaign is unlike any seen in the years spanning the model check. Regardless... these are non-factors in his three-variable model.

 

The overwhelming factor is the regression model is the 3+ term incumbency, but the GDP figure is significant in the margins and the 2nd Qtr 1.2% level it used may well to prove to be an anomaly. Consumer spending in the same period jumped over 4.2% shocking many analysts and it bodes well for a stronger 3rd Qtr GDP number... possibly strong enough to shift the outcome... and validate the model.

 

Another sign is the very recent rise in materials equities signalling an improvement in the global economy which in turn helps our GDP.

 

Stay tuned...

 

I will drink the beers of Tour after Trump wins.

 

Just watch out for that one resealed one containing rented beer... :o

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