VaporTrail Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 Have I not been saying that it was going to be a dead heat going into the debates? God damn, am I brilliant! http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html I would seriously bet you a crisp $20 bill that won't happen in any major respected poll outside of the LA Times. I do actually give kudos to ol' Trump for doing this but (asking seriously here) do you really think it's going to change anyone's mind about the dude? I'll even give you the ones I always look at (and everyone else does too): http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html The simple reason Trump is going to lose is the same reason Obama won. Trump surged in the primaries because the minority vote wasn't voting in them. I guarantee just like Obama this population will be in droves and they won't be voting for Trump. I literally don't care anymore, I hate both of these clowns almost equally so I'm not playing favorites. But Trump isn't going to win. jrb, you owe ed $20, thanks to CNN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbedward Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 Lol, I told him I wasn't going to bet on polls - but I bet a cool case of a beer based on what's going to happen on November 8th. A lot of free beer is coming my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbedward Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 But I think there will be a larger separation in the polls after the first debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VaporTrail Posted September 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 But I think there will be a larger separation in the polls after the first debate. He's going to give her a proverbial facial in the debates. I'll just let that mental image sink in. You're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 ^^^Sitting on that for a week must have been a real treat for you! One poll has him slightly ahead so yes I was by definition technically wrong. The same link you have shows Hilldawg still ahead in the vast majority of others. Gary Johnson is the lynch pin of the election. I'm on record as saying the ONLY way Trump gets elected is if Johnson steals 10+ percent of Hillary's votes. There's a chance he could Ross Perot his way into a Trump presidency. Here's a pretty cool article about it. http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/ross-perot-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-1992-2016-campaign-election-213774 Another critical factor I don't see brought up is Trump is heavily behind in the swing states. http://www.politico.com/2016-election/swing-states He MIGHT get Ohio, Iowa, and NC, but where else is he honestly going to win? Seriously, I'm asking cause I don't see how on God's green earth it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHardBrownsFan Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 Give it up jrb, your 29 years of life experience is going to lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VaporTrail Posted September 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 He MIGHT get Ohio, Iowa, and NC, but where else is he honestly going to win? Seriously, I'm asking cause I don't see how on God's green earth it happens. You should check out the most recent polls. Per RCP, last 4 polls for Florida, last 2 for Ohio, last 2 in Virginia, last 5 in NC are all within the margin of error. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, Hillary's ahead by the MoE plus 2 or 3 in the most recent polls. A 3 to 4 point swing in either of those states is possible in the debates. And if you'll recall, Trump's cut down much bigger leads. I predict he's going to destroy her in the debates, and that'll be all she wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 Give it up jrb, your 29 years of life experience is going to lose. 26 Good Sir! I'm so sorry for using empirical and appropriate data to make an educated opinion on a matter as a form of discussion. I'm just soo millennial! You should check out the most recent polls. Per RCP, last 4 polls for Florida, last 2 for Ohio, last 2 in Virginia, last 5 in NC are all within the margin of error. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, Hillary's ahead by the MoE plus 2 or 3 in the most recent polls. A 3 to 4 point swing in either of those states is possible in the debates. And if you'll recall, Trump's cut down much bigger leads. I predict he's going to destroy her in the debates, and that'll be all she wrote. Just don't see it, but it's not like anything else has made sense so far up to this point. People hate Trump or hate Hillary, and unless the never Trump people swing to Johnson I don't see how he wins in those states. Obama was right there in the margin of error for many of those states and won because the minority vote carried him. I don't see that being fundamentally different come November. Heck, look at 2012: http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/ Even if he takes Iowa, Ohio, and say Wisconsin, he's very likely to lose Florida. In that scenario he's still down 4 votes. Here's an article showing it was even closer about this time with Obama: http://www.gallup.com/poll/157517/obama-romney-swing-states.aspx Unless the "Trump Bump" is some tidal wave to take over Florida and VA (which I seriously doubt) hilldawg still becomes the president and I still vomit with rage that she did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VaporTrail Posted September 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 Unless the "Trump Bump" is some tidal wave to take over Florida and VA (which I seriously doubt) hilldawg still becomes the president and I still vomit with rage that she did. I think that's where we differ, and I don't know that we have enough data to extrapolate an estimate of how big that bump will be, but I'm gonna go ahead and try. And while I see your data from 2012, I don't think that data can be used to extrapolate likely voters for this election; it's going to have almost the exact opposite demographic turnout. Emerson released a bunch of 4-way polls today. Two of them in Maine, one showed Clinton by 9, the other had Trump by 5 - the divergence of these two polls is pretty fascinating. Another shows Trump trailing by 3 and 4 points in Rhode Island and New Jersey. In New Hampshire, he's only trailing by 5. These are states that should be dark blue, but I think the silent majority is starting to come out of the woodwork and admit to pollsters who they're going to vote for. Basically, I'm arguing that the data thus far shows that we have a one-possession ballgame going into the fourth quarter. Trump is Eli Manning and, to many, appears to have been flailing around like a half-rètard and lucked into a playoff berth. Hillary is the dark lord, Bill Belichick, and everyone expects her to wipe the floor with Trump. No one counted on Eli to be clutch in the Super Bowl. Don't write Eli off just because he looks like a rètard; he's deceptively competent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 I think that's where we differ, and I don't know that we have enough data to extrapolate an estimate of how big that bump will be, but I'm gonna go ahead and try. And while I see your data from 2012, I don't think that data can be used to extrapolate likely voters for this election; it's going to have almost the exact opposite demographic turnout. Emerson released a bunch of 4-way polls today. Two of them in Maine, one showed Clinton by 9, the other had Trump by 5 - the divergence of these two polls is pretty fascinating. Another shows Trump trailing by 3 and 4 points in Rhode Island and New Jersey. In New Hampshire, he's only trailing by 5. These are states that should be dark blue, but I think the silent majority is starting to come out of the woodwork and admit to pollsters who they're going to vote for. Basically, I'm arguing that the data thus far shows that we have a one-possession ballgame going into the fourth quarter. Trump is Eli Manning and, to many, appears to have been flailing around like a half-rètard and lucked into a playoff berth. Hillary is the dark lord, Bill Belichick, and everyone expects her to wipe the floor with Trump. No one counted on Eli to be clutch in the Super Bowl. Don't write Eli off just because he looks like a rètard. It is indeed interesting I'll give you that. To be honest, this article IMO anyway gives a pretty neutral view of what I'm talking about with the swing states though. It talks about how the race appears to be tightening but it's going to take a literally unprecedented shift to change the swing states and therefore a Donald Trump win. http://www.vox.com/2016/9/7/12814464/donald-trump-clinton-polls-winning Eli Manning may not be the best ever, but he had a DOMINANT defense behind him. Maybe the silent voters are that, but I just don't see it. Who the fuck knows anymore though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VaporTrail Posted September 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 I read into the Emerson study to figure out why there were two Maine polls. Each poll is of the separate congressional districts, and electoral votes are split up accordingly. Two votes go to the entire state's popular vote winner, and then each of the two congressional districts gets 1 vote. So it will likely result in a 3-1 split. The rural district 2 has 660k residents. The first district contains the capital, is split by land 50% rural to 50% urban, and is home to 640k residents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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