Great Expectations, Quinn should have a Great Year!

[SiperBowl]

Quinn completed about 64% of his passes in his two years under Weis, his last extensive starting experience. He had one healthy start last year and completed, what? 70%? All jousting aside, that's what we have as far as projections.

 

Upside: Daboll's offense is expected to be very Weis-ian, and Quinn had 69 TDs and 14 INTs in that system. He knows it well and it suits him. It requires quick reads and quick decisions, something Quinn does well.

 

Other upside: Our line should be Top Five-ish. We should expect Thomas, Steinbach, and Mack to be among the best at their positions. We have plenty of right-side maulers in St. Clair, Womack, Tucker, and Hadnot.

 

Third upside: I think Lewis comes in cut and trim and ready to earn another contract and he'll be running behind a line that plugged its biggest hole (Fraley). It's like when we plugged Andruzzi. I think we'll run the ball consistently in 2009. And that will benefit Quinn.

 

The hope of a first year starter is that he hits the benchmarks -- 60% completion, 7 yards per attempt, and 1.5 times as many TDs as INTs.

 

I liked everything you had to say except the bottom as many TD's as Int's, that is for losers like DA you just hope that dose not happen Quinn is a hell of a lot better than that. And besides this will be his 3rd year in, with an exception of how many offensive coordinators has he had.

 

Question did Mangini hire a QB coach?

 

[Tobalaz]

Yeah probably 45 TDs too, right?

Better than 45 interceptions.

 

[Drunkandstoopid]

It's shocking that there are even any DA fans left out there.

 

You guys are f--king pathetic. Wake up, the dude isn't playing another minute in Cleveland.

 

You may as well leave the board now and save your vaginas the bleeding.

 

The pathetic ones are the guys who are afraid to let the coaches make the decision. I'm cool with BQ being given his shot if the coaches want it, but I'm assuming nothing's a given yet. I'm not the one who posted that word was getting out from the players in the clubhouse that Mangini actually seems to prefer DA at this point... I think that was Shepwrite.

[Mr. T]

The pathetic ones are the guys who are afraid to let the coaches make the decision. I'm cool with BQ being given his shot if the coaches want it, but I'm assuming nothing's a given yet. I'm not the one who posted that word was getting out from the players in the clubhouse that Mangini actually seems to prefer DA at this point... I think that was Shepwrite.

 

 

You cant be serious. After DA's performance since the end of 2007 and how piss poor he performed in 2008, do you think for one minute that he has a shot.

 

Any statements said prior to the draft need to be excluded, you need to think about how they used this to bait a team like the Jets into trading with them. Ask yourself where did Mark Sanchez get drafted?

 

Smoke and Mirrors.

[roach]

DA's pre-concussion performance of 10-5, 29 TD's and 19 Int's set the bar. With a couple of starts under his belt and a couple of years holding a clipboard, we should know by Week 4 if Quinn is any good. i hope he is.

[Guest AdaM]

DA's pre-concussion performance of 10-5, 29 TD's and 19 Int's set the bar. With a couple of starts under his belt and a couple of years holding a clipboard, we should know by Week 4 if Quinn is any good. i hope he is.

 

 

I don't know if you can really consider that 'setting the bar' considering he can't come remotely close to repeating his own performance.

 

I think that was more along the lines of 'fluke'.

[hammertime]

I don't know if you can really consider that 'setting the bar' considering he can't come remotely close to repeating his own performance.

 

I think that was more along the lines of 'fluke'.

 

Fluke or not those are the numbers that has everyone talking about the fikkin QB for the past 100 yrs.

[Guest AdaM]

Fluke or not those are the numbers that has everyone talking about the fikkin QB for the past 100 yrs.

 

 

Its only going to get worse from here. Tons O' tards on here think Ratliff is going to compete for starting ... haha

[hammertime]

Its only going to get worse from here. Tons O' tards on here think Ratliff is going to compete for starting ... haha

 

Great! We are going back to the days of people wanting Spurgeon Wynn, the undiscovered diamond to lead us to glory. Its amazing that with todays technology of game footage and every stat imaginable people think we should give everybody there chance to become the Kurt Warner or whoever. If there is anything the Browns fans should have learned from terrible history of late is patience.

[gmp]

Hell Quinn could make a run at the MVP this season....

 

I was thinking more like Hall of Fame!!!!

[osusev]

Yeah, a QB who checks down is awful. Seriously, why take a completed short pass that puts you in a 2nd/3rd and short when you could have someone try and force a midrange ball for an incompletion or an INT?

 

I'd much rather see more of DA's decision making vs a check down. Much more exciting.

 

 

Greythan there is nothing wrong with checking down as a 2nd or 3rd/4th option. His second game saw the defensive coordinators jamming at the line and playing tight and his numbers crashed immediately. He wanted the quick short strikes and it showed.

 

I have no problem with Quinn starting and PROVING/EARNING his fan status but like when he was drafted I did not buy into the COLLEGE hype or the "WEIS effect"(how is that doing for ND and their new QB.... not to mention how many were drafted this year/) Honestly I still dont buy he is a NFL qb, I know that is not "popular fan" opinion but it is mine. I hope he gets the chance this year so we can see what we drafted but if Mangini and company dont start him it will be pretty clear to me that IF 2 different regimes dont buy into him than he was all hype.

 

Like the deal with Stafford this year getting paid stupid money for some Kid who has never taken a snap and has all of that fan support is Dumb. The NFL is such a hodgepodge of players that come from all kinds of programs and rounds/undrafted that actually succed and start.

[Mr. T]

The Browns may not have everything in place for the Idea situation, but I will say Quinn's time has come. We will know more once preseason gets here.

 

[Greythan]

Sev, I really think you simply have some type of inferiority complex on this topic.

 

Your bias shows through for 1) highly touted college players and the resulting 2) HUGE contracts/fame/adulation thrown at them without any tangible results at the NFL level.

 

I understand that.

 

However, this quote has me really laughing:

 

Like the deal with Stafford this year getting paid stupid money for some Kid who has never taken a snap and has all of that fan support is Dumb. The NFL is such a hodgepodge of players that come from all kinds of programs and rounds/undrafted that actually succed and start.

First off, there is nothing dumb at all about the contracts. As you continually try and remind me, you're a businessman. Well, then you of all people should understand supply and demand. Stafford wouldn't have gotten $40m GUARANTEED from the Lions if there wasn't an economic case to be made. Its not dumb, its actually quite rational. Now, is it emotionally tough to swallow: the thought of a 21 year old kid leaving school and year early to have $40m dropped in his lap? Sure. If it turns out this level of rookie contracts is economically unsustainable... you'll see a salary cap. Until then, it is what it is.

 

Second, you always want to bring up the Rocky Balboa analogy of the "late round guy" or the "undrafted guy" making good. Yeah, it happens. Its a nice story. Its also THE LOWEST PROBABILITY. We've posted statistics before that bear out the old rule: the higher the draft pick the higher the probability they'll have a successful NFL career. Its a fact. Do first rounders flame out? Sure. However, over several drafts (follow me here: law of large numbers) the stats favor the higher round picks. Like it or not, the NFL talent evaluators are actually good at what they do. There's a reason DA was drafted in the sixth round and Quinn in the first. Is it infaliable? No, Savage may have gotten it wrong. However, the odds are in Quinn's favor..... like it or not.

 

The rest of your post simply reinforces your anti-ND, anti-Weiss, and anti-Quinn bias. I actually don't have an anti-OSU, anti-Whoever-the-hell-coached-DA, and anti-DA bias. What I have is an anti-Bad-QB'ing bias. So, I'd like to see what Quinn can do. If he sucks too..... let's get another QB.

[daddybull1]

I realize that the camps of both Quinn & Anderson are pretty set in their ways, just let me add some thoughts from a guy who could care less who's under center...

Keep in mind that almost all of the players in the league earned all american status while in college...

 

After the 2007 season, I was in Florida attending a sports show and had the privledge to meet Carson Palmer from the Bengals...Our conversation went back to that game in Cincy... Palmer told me that those were the toughest wind conditions he had ever played in... He stated that at times once the ball left his hand he had no idea where it would end up... In fact, he told me he missed one pass by as much as 10 yards.....

 

In addition, he also stated that the league has had a file on Anderson since the days he played (or didn't play) in Baltimore.... In the pro's they know your abilities as soon as you hit camp... The thing that struck me as rather odd is that he inferred that by mid season the league had a book on Chud's tendancies and in certain situations his play calling was most predictible... Chud consistantly put his players in a position to fail rather than win....

 

Keep in mind that neither QB is Mangini's pick so he's really not committed to either and can lay the blame on the Savage regime if either doesn't live up to the fans expectations.... Neither Quarterback sucks (using board terminology) but one will be asked to take the Mangini regime to the next level....Let the competition begin.....

 

T.Dawg

[Greythan]

Not that I support Sev in his arguements about Quinn. But are you really trying to make the case that the current way rookie salaries are done is ok just because the teams can afford it? Really? I'd bet Sev as a businessman will tell you, He'll very rarely pay the kid that just graduated from college the same money as the guy who's worked for him for years and proven he can do the work. The rookie salaries are ASSININE, Not one person can make a good case for why they should be kept that way. The only thing keeping them from changing is the stubborness of the agents, players and union folk who worry that if you implement a rookie salary cap, the owners won't in turn use that money to pay the vets more, they will just keep it. But that doesn't make paying these kids this much money when they have proven nothing.

Look, I consider my self a quasi reluctant capitalist.

 

Do I "feel" that rookie salaries are appropriate? You could ask the same question of a movie star getting $20m to act. A CEO getting $700m in options.

 

My point is that "feeling" has nothing to do with it. The NFL is a money making machine. If the economics didn't support paying these kids those contracts.... they wouldn't be getting the contracts and/or the NFL would be losing money.

 

So, the arguments of "they haven't proven anything" or they "don't deserve that much money" have nothing to do with reality. All that matters is that someone is willing to make a cost/benefit decision to pay Stafford $40m guaranteed. That's how our entire economic system works.

[osusev]

Greythan I admit I have a problem with high draft picks and the money they get paid. I also will admit that I have not liked Weis since he got the job and ND and all of the crazy media attention he got for the first two years.

 

Honestly I did not feel the coach or the program really accomplished anything to deserve it. I know they have a huge and loyal fanbase ergo the media attention. It just irritates me honestly when i see other programs (no i am not talking about The Osu) and coaches that are doing better jobs and dont get that kind of media attention. I thought Quinn really was a beneficiary of all of that media and he was a bit over hyped.

 

I did not believe in the "weis effect" or the "pro style sytem/pro ready" media crap and still dont. My college bias aside being a Browns fans makes me want the best players regardless of what program they come from (EVEN that team up north)

 

So you are right about my bias against Weis ergo his beneficiary of all that media focus Quinn. However I am open to see him play and want to see what he can do because that is the ONLY way we know one way or the other.

 

IF he sucks than I am ok with DA or trading DA and Bq I dont really care as long as someone is our qb who is competent and has a upside.

 

Really I hope I am wrong about DA because than OUR Browns will be much better and stop making me sick watching them! The WTF moments from DA and the team is going to shave years off my life if this keeps on going,

 

[osusev]

As for the economics of supply and demand of high 1st rounders...... The system of the supply(meaning the NFL ability to deliver a supply/job/oppurtunity) instead of the supply of suppossed elite talent of college players being able to transition to the NFL thereby blackmailing franchises into giving stupid money to someone who has not proved squat and can cripple and entire franchise and all of its players is insane.

 

We can agree to disagree but I think the Franchises and the NFL itself is transitioning to my side of the argument in the future. A rookie salary cap is coming sooner or later....

[Drunkandstoopid]

After the 2007 season, I was in Florida attending a sports show and had the privledge to meet Carson Palmer from the Bengals...Our conversation went back to that game in Cincy... Palmer told me that those were the toughest wind conditions he had ever played in... He stated that at times once the ball left his hand he had no idea where it would end up... In fact, he told me he missed one pass by as much as 10 yards.....

 

 

 

T.Dawg

Interestingly in that game, which everyone points to being a DA problem, the Bengals went from throwing the ball (the rest of the season they threw more often than the Browns did) to running the ball more often than not to avoid the consequences of the wind, while Chud had the Browns chucking it all game long.

[Greythan]

Sev/JAD, don't misunderstand what I'm trying (and failing I think) to say.

 

I think the contracts are ridiculous. Insane.

 

I also think the same thing is true when it comes to what we pay entertainers, CEO's, some sales people, public speakers, etc.

 

My underlying point, however, is that price for services is dictated by what the market is willing to pay. So far, the market has been willing to pay Stafford $40m. Its also been a pretty good economic system: the NFL makes MILLIONS.

 

My fair-dealing side (some people might call it something else, you know more "anti-free-market") says that there's no reason to drive up costs to fans, etc. to pay these crazy contracts. I think they'll find a way to slow or check the rookie contract growth. That said, as long as you and I are willing to buy tickets/gear/etc from the NFL at the prices they ask.....

[Timugen]

No but see I think you are missing my point still

 

I DON'T CARE if peyton manning makes 180 million dollars a year if the team can make that affordable. I don't care what CEO's, Entertainers, or anyone else in the world makes. Because for the most part. Those people don't get that much money coming out of college when they haven't proven themselves. How many movie stars do you know make huge money for thier first picture?

 

And again, the Market can pay Stafford. But that doesn't make it right that a guy who has never thrown a pass is making more than guys who have led their team to the playoffs.

 

THAT's the part of the system I find rediculous.

 

 

Greythan's point was never anything about it being "right" or not, and I think that's what you're still missing. In fact, I'd venture a guess that he would agree with you that it isn't "right," but that isn't what he was talking about.

 

 

 

[BrownIndian]

I guess in that case landing up with a high draft pick is more of a punishment unless you are very specific about who you want and money is not an object.

 

The Mangini deserves a B just for trading down from that No 5 spot.

[Timugen]

So what do you think he's talking about?

 

Again I started my discussion saying I didn't agree with Sev on what he thinks of why Quinn should start or not.

 

I am merely having the esoteric discussion about the problem with Salaries in the NFL right now, and how it affects the draft.

 

 

Well I can't speak for Greythan, but what I think he's saying can be put pretty damn simply.

 

Those players wouldn't be getting paid those salaries if there wasn't someone willing to pay them those salaries. Period. Nothing else. Nothing about it being "right." Nothing saying it shouldn't be different.

 

I agree (and Greythan probably does, as well) that it isn't "right" and that it should be changed, but that isn't the point he was making.

 

[Timugen]

Getting a high draft pick is actually considered a BAD thing now. Teams can't trade out of them for equal value because no one wants to pay an unproven rookie the redicuilous sums of money they have to now.

 

An interesting idea I heard (though it will NEVER happen) for "fixing" some of the problems with the draft is to have the teams be able to choose which position they want based on their record instead of being automatically locked in to a pick. So, for example, Detroit this year would have gotten first choice of where they wanted to pick instead of being locked in at 1.....they could have chosen to pick 5th or 8th or whatever position they wanted to draft in.

 

 

[crikes]

IF quinn wins the job he seems more of a game manager type obviously than a qb who punches up 4k in yards a year. I could see a 20 td year with 12 ints with 2300 yds.

 

we will see one way or the other, IF he has developed that 20-35yd accurate tight pass than all of his checkdown tendencies will work because the dbs cant jam at the line and play tight to disrupt him.

 

IF not than he will be gone next year.

Yeah I could see him do Eli type numbers this year - nothing extreme but definitely solid - probably a good fantasy pick up lol

[crikes]

An interesting idea I heard (though it will NEVER happen) for "fixing" some of the problems with the draft is to have the teams be able to choose which position they want based on their record instead of being automatically locked in to a pick. So, for example, Detroit this year would have gotten first choice of where they wanted to pick instead of being locked in at 1.....they could have chosen to pick 5th or 8th or whatever position they wanted to draft in.

The only problem with that is that there are teams that would trade up to give you a chance to move down, maybe the price wouldnt be what you like but you could always do it. If the jets didnt do what they did and we wanted out badly enough we couldve traded picks with the skins and it couldve been just straight up or one of those wack piece sixth round picks people were handing out - bottom line I just dont ever see the NFL doing that just like they will never change Overtime to college overtime similarities

[crikes]

And now we're getting to the interesting part of the discussion thanks!

 

That is an interesting thought. I've also heard and liked having a much more stringent "rookie salary cap" where they get paide MUCH less at the outset of thier carreers, but making the contracts automatically shorter, Say 2 years. Then teams can draft players they want, and then know in a year or two if the guy will make it, and then sign them to a big contract AFTER they earned it. Again, I think the big stumbling block for this one would be making sure the players get somekind of language written in that says, the money saved on rookies would be put back into veterans and not just pocketed by the owners. But I would beleive that would happen anyway, since there already is a salary cap, so they would still spend up to that cap amount.

See, thats a great point I can agree on, there definitely needs to be some big change in that area for sure!

[Timugen]

And now we're getting to the interesting part of the discussion thanks!

 

That is an interesting thought. I've also heard and liked having a much more stringent "rookie salary cap" where they get paide MUCH less at the outset of thier carreers, but making the contracts automatically shorter, Say 2 years. Then teams can draft players they want, and then know in a year or two if the guy will make it, and then sign them to a big contract AFTER they earned it. Again, I think the big stumbling block for this one would be making sure the players get somekind of language written in that says, the money saved on rookies would be put back into veterans and not just pocketed by the owners. But I would beleive that would happen anyway, since there already is a salary cap, so they would still spend up to that cap amount.

 

 

One of the other stumbling blocks with a rookie salary cap is that with the smaller, shorter contracts the players would most likely insist on most of, if not all, of that contract being guaranteed. While I personally think that's reasonable, I don't know what the owners would think of it.

[Guest Masters]

Rookie slotting/pay like the NBA. It is the way the NFL will go. The players union is as unhappy with the rookie pay right now as the the owners.

[Greythan]

JAD, do you think some of the dot-com guys deserved millions of dollars for selling unproven IT concepts that never panned out?

 

Also, you aren't giving credit to Stafford's body of college work, his private workouts, physical gifts, etc. The Detroit Lions aren't taking a flyere on the guy. Will he pan out? Who knows. The venture capital companies that threw hundreds of millions of dollars at questionable dot-com companies were way more reckless.

 

The point, and thanks Tim for keeping on it, is that calling the contracts "dumb" is a misuse of the term. There's nothing "dumb" about it as its part of an entire system that creates millions in profits each year. Who knows how many kids might be that much more motivated to work on their football skills knowing they might someday sign a "Stafford-deal"?

 

Again, if its unsustainable and/or the environment demands something different the system will change. Until then there's no motivation for change. In aggregate, the NFL system is 'working'.

 

We're actually not that far apart as there is a clear side of me that just can't get my head around $40m for a college QB. I also can't get my head around the near statistical fact that somone OTHER than me will win the $180+ Mega Millions.

[BrownIndian]

Dont u wish regular jobs were like that ?