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Analysis of Draft Value by Position by CMU Tartans


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Another interesting treatment of PFR's AV data, the basis for the Harvard Draft Chart. Where the Harvard boys lumped all picks together, the Tartans examine it by position.


While I see dangers in over reading relatively small differences, it's an interesting exercise.



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  • Quarterbacks need should be addressed in the first round, teams trying their luck with late round QBs rarely find success.
  • Nothing new here...it is what I have been saying.
  • Offensive linemen offer superior value in all rounds of the draft.
  • Agreement with Ghoolie? Dime a dozen?
  • Linebackers & running backs are best value on Day 2 (Rounds 2 and 3).
  • So? Browns go QB at #1....and what at #12? if they follow this
  • Teams seeking depth at Defensive Line or Defensive End are better off waiting till Day 3.
  • What do they mean by "depth"....what about "starters on the DL?
  • Despite the recent surge in Star Wideouts, WRs offer less relative value than other positions
  • Did Ray FArmer write this up?

And it does not mention DBs...what is their take on them?

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Defensive Backs begin as a low relative value pick but the position plateaus after the fourth round, which makes them very appealing as the draft winds to a close. Defensive Backs drafted at the tail end of the seventh round offer almost identical value on average to DBs drafted two full rounds earlier. Similar to WRs, starting corners should be drafted earlier, but filling depth at the corner and safety can be done on day three.

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Well, I mean....it seems a platitude/cliche: "Depth can be gotten in the lower rounds. You draft your stars in round one. NSS.

Perhaps what they are saying is: you can get "keepers" on the OL or DB or DL....but you get your starring players early.

But, it appears that they think that fewer "keepers" can be had at the WR position...and QB in lower round than these other spots.


Of course, there are aberrations. The best QB in the game was a 6th rounder (Brady). The best WR arguably was a 6th rounder (A. Brown).

Anyone else? Yes, wholly aberrations...but it does happen. I guess the charts simply show the average chances of someone at those positions/draft slots succeeding.

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