Osiris Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 Have a listen to this podcast by Malcolm Gladwell. He talks about what he learned from a behavioral economist regarding the behavior of NFL teams when it comes to the NFL draft. The link starts in the part where he talks about the NFL Draft. Listen from 17:45 up to 22:04. The point to come away with with respect to the Browns is they understand behavioral economics and that most other teams don't. They also understand the real value, in terms of economics, of draft picks, cap space and players. They understand that: -To NFL teams, having a cap means that money isn't money, it's a commodity. That means that your 'supply' of money is determined by the cap, not by how much cash you have in the bank. It also means that just like other commodities, the value of cap money is influenced by supply and demand. This explains the Osweiller trade. The Browns have a surplus of cap space, therefore the value of it to the Browns is low. The Texans have a demand for cap space, therefore the value is high. The Browns have a demand for good players, so they value the draft picks. -A draft pick isn't just a player, it's potential revenue. A draft pick is turned into a player who may or may not generate income for the team in the form of filled stadium seats, sold jerseys, etc..., so, how do you maximize your revenue from draft picks? You get that... -Draft picks are a high risk investment and usually 50% of them don't pan out, so the best strategy is to draft as many players as possible. -Contrary to popular belief, they get that a second round pick this year has the same or similar value to a draft pick in the second round next year. From the podcast, a team that trades based on the conventional wisdom would give up next year's second round pick to pick in this year's third round. In financial terms, this is equivalent to paying ~130% interest on a loan. Raise your hand if you would pay ~130% interest on a loan... Using all this understanding, the Browns FO are setting the team up for consistent success. There's one other team that's been doing all this exceptionally well: The New England Patriots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canton Mike Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 A few of us have been "all in" for this FO from the start. They have operated consistently & creatively, sticking to their plan. Obviously, the inmates no longer run the asylum & that's a good thing. I'm enjoying the ride & having a little fun watching the naysayers jumping aboard this train. Free agency is ongoing, then the draft. The excitement keeps building. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 Good listen... Gladwell is a geek deluxe. Tipping Point was a great read. One of the interesting things about our Brockweiler deal was the glimpse it gave of a pick's pure worth in dollar terms. Not something we normally get to see in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clevfan4life Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 Then they do shit like give kenny brit 18m. Im not sold on these 4-d chess moves by sashi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 You know it's ~$8mm/yr for Britt... right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
choco Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 Then they do shit like give kenny brit 18m. Im not sold on these 4-d chess moves by sashiya know, not liking a particular move doesn't make it a bad move. You do realize what constitutes a bad move, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clevfan4life Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yeah i knowvtime will tell, but its kenny britt....he's not a #1 wr. If we lose pryor that cant be helped, they tried.....but then target a burner who can tear the top of most secondaries. Try at least to replace pryors skillset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark O Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yeah i knowvtime will tell, but its kenny britt....he's not a #1 wr. If we lose pryor that cant be helped, they tried.....but then target a burner who can tear the top of most secondaries. Try at least to replace pryors skillset A college QB trying to become a WR? That's who they should go after? They replaced Pryor with basically the same guy. Pryor MAY turn out to be better and may grow into a great WR but at this point, he's Kenny Britt and he wants a ridiculous amount of money for one year of production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yeah i knowvtime will tell, but its kenny britt....he's not a #1 wr. If we lose pryor that cant be helped, they tried.....but then target a burner who can tear the top of most secondaries. Try at least to replace pryors skillset True, Britt is not a #1... it's why he signed for #2 money. Issue is TP is not a #1 either, but he wants to get paid as if he was. We said no and it's turning out that so far the NFL as a hole appears to share our view. When was the last time TP took the top off a D? Last preseason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
choco Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 Gets eaten up by press coverage...It's why he disappeared in some games and flourished in others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasAg1969 Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 A few of us have been "all in" for this FO from the start. They have operated consistently & creatively, sticking to their plan. Obviously, the inmates no longer run the asylum & that's a good thing. I'm enjoying the ride & having a little fun watching the naysayers jumping aboard this train. Free agency is ongoing, then the draft. The excitement keeps building. Mike I'm not to the "all in" point yet Mike. I liked yesterday both for the Houston deal and all the OL work done, but still have heartburn over last year's draft. I'm willing to forget that if we can move from C- to A- or better this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 There is a way to bottom line judge this front office: Wins. Does anything else matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gftChris Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yeah i knowvtime will tell, but its kenny britt....he's not a #1 wr. If we lose pryor that cant be helped, they tried.....but then target a burner who can tear the top of most secondaries. Try at least to replace pryors skillset Pryor's skillset? No, they need to replace his production. If you want to sign a receiver based on physical attributes alone, go ahead and give Greg Little a call, or Breshad Perriman, or Justin Blackmon. You stick with those guys, I'll take Antonio Brown (5'10"), OBJ (5'11") and Doug Baldwin (5'11"). If you want a guy to go up and catch contested balls with sub 4.4 speed, how about you take a look at someone like Corey Coleman? Oh wait, we already have him. Come on dude, stop bitching about nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyingfooldoug Posted March 11, 2017 Report Share Posted March 11, 2017 There is a way to bottom line judge this front office: Wins. Does anything else matter? Not in football. Close gets you a point in horseshoes. This FO is a whopping 1-15....What excitement. And now a 16 million dollar second round pick....heart be still! HOF, lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miktoxic Posted March 11, 2017 Report Share Posted March 11, 2017 it's all good untill the browns go 2-14. then all you suckers will be screaming for new blood. great. cool. sexy. then you take her pants off and the flubber hits you in your face, btw.......what happens if they can't trade osweiller? they just get a 2nd round pick for free? GTFO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flugel Posted March 11, 2017 Report Share Posted March 11, 2017 it's all good untill the browns go 2-14. then all you suckers will be screaming for new blood. great. cool. sexy. then you take her pants off and the flubber hits you in your face, btw.......what happens if they can't trade osweiller? they just get a 2nd round pick for free? GTFO. HA! Moral of the story, if it takes between 6 and 12 beers before she looks hot - you better hope you don't have a "Crying Game" on your hands when you get those pants down. You could have just picked up Ghoolie. Then you better give your soul to God because your ass belongs to him. As for Brock Ostrich, we had over $100,000,000.00 so we're not going broke while we sweeten the volume of 2nd round picks for NE this year or a plan B of trading up for a 1st round QB in 2018 (when the QB class is expected to be much stronger than 2017). A franchise good enough to compete in the playoffs drafted the Wizard of Os. When it was finally his turn to start - another team (Houston) was willing to pay him more $ to play for them. Unfortunately, they were calling him Oshole near the end of that experience. Today, he's on his 3rd team which is now a trend reminding us there's usually somebody needing a QB in a league of 32 teams. For example, Sam Bradford became really needed when the Vikes lost Bridgewater while QBs like Hoyer, Cassell and McCown keep finding new teams at 7-8 digit incomes. The interest in Ostrich may not be immediate; so worst case scenario is we added a 2nd round pick plus somebody that might be better than Kessler. In fairness to Ostrich, Houston didn't really have a TE that could take over the middle of the field so it only made sense he looked more promising in Denver when they had Julius Thomas in that role. OJ Howard will be on our doorstep at #12 just 2 years after he lit up Clemson in the National Championship for over 200 yards and 2 TDs prior to running a 4.5 forty with the catch radius of a 6-6 target. With that size and athleticism he can also line up outside as a WR like a Jimmy Graham or a Gronk or kick inside to play a throw back TE role when necessary. Just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcam222 Posted March 11, 2017 Report Share Posted March 11, 2017 Pryor's skillset? No, they need to replace his production. If you want to sign a receiver based on physical attributes alone, go ahead and give Greg Little a call, or Breshad Perriman, or Justin Blackmon. You stick with those guys, I'll take Antonio Brown (5'10"), OBJ (5'11") and Doug Baldwin (5'11"). If you want a guy to go up and catch contested balls with sub 4.4 speed, how about you take a look at someone like Corey Coleman? Oh wait, we already have him. Come on dude, stop bitching about nothing. let's hope Coleman can both stay healthy and actually catch the ball. He needs a BIG jump this year to validate his worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flugel Posted March 11, 2017 Report Share Posted March 11, 2017 let's hope Coleman can both stay healthy and actually catch the ball. He needs a BIG jump this year to validate his worth. He had a much better rookie year than Antonio Brown (once did on a much better team) in spite of overcoming a broken hand. The only difference is he played in 1 more game than Brown did. Sometimes, this position takes time. My biggest concern with Coleman regarding the catching the ball in traffic thing is body catchers don't win a lot of closely contested passes in tight windows. That's a hard habit to break especially when it was perfected over the length of a scholarship. Not saying it can't be as much as I'm saying he might have to be willing to endure some growing pains of dropped passes early on if he's ever going to change the habit once and for all. Some of us see it as glass half empty - others see it half full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted March 11, 2017 Report Share Posted March 11, 2017 My biggest concern with Coleman regarding the catching the ball in traffic thing is body catchers don't win a lot of closely contested passes in tight windows. .........this has been my rant since day one......bad hands.... ................ he???? might have to be willing to endure some growing pains of dropped passes early on if he's ever going to change the habit once and for all. ... he?......what about we?........and the dropped passes thing is already there...has been his whole career.....probably the MAIN reason he prefers to use his body, which was his reaction to bad hands.....and ,now, we are expected to reverse this and teach a FIRST round pick how to catch??? ....teach him how to get open, while you're at it..... Some of us see it as glass half empty - others see it half full. Technically....both are correct..........but, if my 1st rounder cant win contested balls, cant catch well with his hands, has a very high drop rate and is already being considered as an ideal candidate for SLOT WR, then Im leaning away from the half full and more toward the half empty.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted March 11, 2017 Report Share Posted March 11, 2017 The interest in Ostrich may not be immediate; so worst case scenario is we added a 2nd round pick plus somebody that might be better than Kessler. In fairness to Ostrich, Houston didn't really have a TE that could take over the middle of the field so it only made sense he looked more promising in Denver when they had Julius Thomas in that role. I get that you are not trying to blow sunshine up our skirts here, but your TE point does not stand up to scrutiny. HOU's CJ Fiedorowicz really came on last year... 54 catches 559 yds. CJ's 2016 YPG was virtually identical to Thomas' 2015 average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flugel Posted March 11, 2017 Report Share Posted March 11, 2017 I get that you are not trying to blow sunshine up our skirts here, but your TE point does not stand up to scrutiny. HOU's CJ Fiedorowicz really came on last year... 54 catches 559 yds. CJ's 2016 YPG was virtually identical to Thomas' 2015 average. True but he doesn't seem like anything more than what Barnidge decreased back into in 2016, which was a BIG drop off from his career year in 2015. He was easy to tackle because he rarely had much separation and we know he wasn't going to run away from anyone after the catch. There was a period (prolly before Ostrich got to Denver) when Thomas was offering up a flexibility to line up outside or inside with an ability to run away from secondaries in certain matchups they wanted to exploit. I could be wrong but I don't think CJ offered that up type of help. If we had a dynamic TE with speed here like an OJ Howard, I think he'd really help our QB out a lot. And remember those aren't skirts - they're kilts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canton Mike Posted March 11, 2017 Report Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'm not to the "all in" point yet Mike. I liked yesterday both for the Houston deal and all the OL work done, but still have heartburn over last year's draft. I'm willing to forget that if we can move from C- to A- or better this year. Bill, I don't expect you to be "all in", but too many are discounting what the FO has done with recent acquisitions & thus far in free agency. All I ask is that you give credit where credit is due. Besides, last year's draft can't yet be judged as bad...I wanted Wentz, but he wasn't our only draftee & we don't know how others will play after year one. I think demanding A- or better is a little excessive. Would I like to see that grade?...Yeah, but a grade of B isn't going to get me down on this FO. Recent trends have been positive, so let's keep an open mind here please. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted March 11, 2017 Report Share Posted March 11, 2017 True but he doesn't seem like anything more than what Barnidge decreased back into in 2016, which was a BIG drop off from his career year in 2015. He was easy to tackle because he rarely had much separation and we know he wasn't going to run away from anyone after the catch. There was a period (prolly before Ostrich got to Denver) when Thomas was offering up a flexibility to line up outside or inside with an ability to run away from secondaries in certain matchups they wanted to exploit. I could be wrong but I don't think CJ offered that up type of help. If we had a dynamic TE with speed here like an OJ Howard, I think he'd really help our QB out a lot. And remember those aren't skirts - they're kilts... lol... I grant you that CJ and Thomas are different TEs, but I am not sure they made their yards all that differently. I seem to remember Thomas busting relatively short crosses for out-sized gains. I know CJ made his year off of short and medium crossing routes. I also know CJ has really reshaped his body since he came out of Iowa. Kid looks lean. But there's no disputing Thomas' superior speed. Just seems to me that he is more of a match-up myth than problem... at least in JAX. And I see he's now a Dolphin... But this is an Osweiler discussion anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furious Styles Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 Have a listen to this podcast by Malcolm Gladwell. He talks about what he learned from a behavioral economist regarding the behavior of NFL teams when it comes to the NFL draft. The link starts in the part where he talks about the NFL Draft. Listen from 17:45 up to 22:04. The point to come away with with respect to the Browns is they understand behavioral economics and that most other teams don't. They also understand the real value, in terms of economics, of draft picks, cap space and players. They understand that: -To NFL teams, having a cap means that money isn't money, it's a commodity. That means that your 'supply' of money is determined by the cap, not by how much cash you have in the bank. It also means that just like other commodities, the value of cap money is influenced by supply and demand. This explains the Osweiller trade. The Browns have a surplus of cap space, therefore the value of it to the Browns is low. The Texans have a demand for cap space, therefore the value is high. The Browns have a demand for good players, so they value the draft picks. -A draft pick isn't just a player, it's potential revenue. A draft pick is turned into a player who may or may not generate income for the team in the form of filled stadium seats, sold jerseys, etc..., so, how do you maximize your revenue from draft picks? You get that... -Draft picks are a high risk investment and usually 50% of them don't pan out, so the best strategy is to draft as many players as possible. -Contrary to popular belief, they get that a second round pick this year has the same or similar value to a draft pick in the second round next year. From the podcast, a team that trades based on the conventional wisdom would give up next year's second round pick to pick in this year's third round. In financial terms, this is equivalent to paying ~130% interest on a loan. Raise your hand if you would pay ~130% interest on a loan... Using all this understanding, the Browns FO are setting the team up for consistent success. There's one other team that's been doing all this exceptionally well: The New England Patriots. ......or you can just find a quarterback like TOM BRADY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
choco Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 Yeah, no problem. Not like he was a unicorn or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 I get that you are not trying to blow sunshine up our skirts here, but your TE point does not stand up to scrutiny. HOU's CJ Fiedorowicz really came on last year... 54 catches 559 yds. CJ's 2016 YPG was virtually identical to Thomas' 2015 average. Well, maybe a 6'7" guy just does not look that good wearing a Fedora. Maybe a Cowboy hat suits him better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballpeen Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 Thanks for that. One of the most informative posts i have read on this board. We are in good hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballpeen Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 There is a way to bottom line judge this front office: Wins. Does anything else matter? Not really. The key is you give it time to happen. We are doing it right. The wins will come, and when that happens you might even go to a game or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osiris Posted March 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2017 There is a way to bottom line judge this front office: Wins. Does anything else matter? That kind of thinking is precisely why we haven't kept a front office and coaching staff together for more than two years. You aren't going to get a regime to come in and start winning immediately here. The only way is to give them 3-5 years to install a process and get good at executing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted March 13, 2017 Report Share Posted March 13, 2017 That kind of thinking is precisely why we haven't kept a front office and coaching staff together for more than two years. You aren't going to get a regime to come in and start winning immediately here. The only way is to give them 3-5 years to install a process and get good at executing it. Yes and no... In that 3-5 year window, you have to look at direction... vector... whatever you want to call it. And you have to evaluate FO and Staff separately as well as one unit. So far our FO is looking up, but they've the benefit of Collins plus this FA period. Staff? Clearly the DC, Defensive staff plus other misc. resets says it's still a work in progress with direction TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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