Why not Minkah at #1

[TexasAg1969]

14 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Pluto and Peppers both diminished because of their position?  Pluto no longer a planet....now classified as a "dwarf planet".  Peppers no longer a functioning member of the defense?  Just a "dwarf defensive back"?

Well it is some kind of fairy tale position so there's that! Cleveland Browns and the One Dwarf? Maybe Woody can give him a kiss and he turns into a Prince of Player.

[hoorta]

20 hours ago, The Gipper said:

Yea?  Which QB?   Like I am saying...it seems by all accounts that Minkah is head and shoulders above any one else that plays that position...and head and shoulders above any of the QBs.  

We have the luxury of getting him...and getting maybe the best QB out of the bunch...and it is a bunch....

I know Tour is on Rosen's knob.  I know Cal is on Allen's knob. I know some are on Mayfield's knob...and perhaps some are on  Darnold's knob.  

There is NO consensus #1 QB.   Minkah IS fairly well the consensus #1 DB.   Though he is not the consensus #1 pick.   A lot put Chubb of NC State on there....but no one would predict we would take him due to us having taken Garrett last year at the same position.  And no one projects Minkah at #1 because no DB has ever gone #1.

I guess I may be OK with this:    We take whatever from the grab bag of QBs at #1.....as long as we know also that the Giants are going to also grab in that same QB bag...and that the Colts are not going to go for Minkah...so we can get him at #4.  We have to see what their needs are.

In theory I guess we could do this:

Take a QB at #1.   Trade our #4 to the Giants at #2 and take Minkah .....as long as the Giants are secure in believing that the Colts will not take a QB...or trade down to let someone else who is QB needy trade up to get the one they want.

A little late to this thread Gip but- as was pointed out- if we pass on a QB @ #1, totally possible the Colts flip picks with the Broncos- then we're stuck with the #3 QB. You better hope Baker Mayfield turns out to be a stud....   BTW, I'll double the bet on the Maya Margaritas that Fitzpatrick doesn't go #1 overall- it's never happened, and it's not happening now. You know the drill on most valuable to a team by position. Quarterback trumps everything else,  pass rush DE, then left tackle. Cornerback comes in at #4. You don't draft Fitz #1 overall even if you think he's got GOAT potential. We had Minnifield\Dixon and never made it to the big dance. 

19 hours ago, mjp28 said:

Walter #2 & 5, even the BROWNS bypassing taking a QB......just sayin.

I commented on Walter's site that he's freaking lost his mind if he's projecting the Browns aren't taking a qb at all in 2018. Regardless if they get Cousins or Smith. 

19 hours ago, The Gipper said:

I was not talking about that.  I did say that it may be possible that we could get one in round 2 that could be every bit as good as the guys that might go in round one.....given the melange of talent at the position...but I was not talking about doing that.

Glad you're not talking about that Gip. Could be? Sure, anything's possible- not likely though. Or are you dismissing Nero's stat your odds of finding your starting QB are twice as good in the first round as oppose to lower? 

[crstphr2]

You draft a QB.  Why?  Because how many points did Garrett score this year?

[The Gipper]

1 hour ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Well it is some kind of fairy tale position so there's that! Cleveland Browns and the One Dwarf? Maybe Woody can give him a kiss and he turns into a Prince of Player.

Are you calling Woody a Princess?

If the shoe fits.

[The Gipper]

41 minutes ago, hoorta said:

A little late to this thread Gip but- as was pointed out- if we pass on a QB @ #1, totally possible the Colts flip picks with the Broncos- then we're stuck with the #3 QB. You better hope Baker Mayfield turns out to be a stud....   BTW, I'll double the bet on the Maya Margaritas that Fitzpatrick doesn't go #1 overall- it's never happened, and it's not happening now. You know the drill on most valuable to a team by position. Quarterback trumps everything else,  pass rush DE, then left tackle. Cornerback comes in at #4. You don't draft Fitz #1 overall even if you think he's got GOAT potential. We had Minnifield\Dixon and never made it to the big dance. 

First off...it is Stan that owes me the pitcher of Margaritas...and I have yet to collect now like 8 months later.  And no...I would never bet that a DB would be taken #1 overall...even if in theory the talent would warrant it.

As for the QBs...you tell me which one of these are the studs?   Which one is deserving of the #1 pick?  As I see it...there are like 5 of them in contention....and except for the people that are on one or the others of their knobs...I discern no true outstanding worthy candidate.

I commented on Walter's site that he's freaking lost his mind if he's projecting the Browns aren't taking a qb at all in 2018. Regardless if they get Cousins or Smith. 

Glad you're not talking about that Gip. Could be? Sure, anything's possible- not likely though. Or are you dismissing Nero's stat your odds of finding your starting QB are twice as good in the first round as oppose to lower? 

No...I am only saying that this year....how can you tell if one of them is #1 worthy....and how he may be better than the #5-6 guy.

 

[hoorta]

Different point of view Gip. I have three QBs worthy of the #1 overall. Put their names in a hat and pick one.

One will eventually rise to the top, and we'll hitch our wagon to him. Not even combine and workout time yet. 

BTW, Senior Bowl. Mayfield, Allen, Rudolph. Tune in.

[The Gipper]

1 hour ago, hoorta said:

Different point of view Gip. I have three QBs worthy of the #1 overall. Put their names in a hat and pick one.

One will eventually rise to the top, and we'll hitch our wagon to him. Not even combine and workout time yet. 

BTW, Senior Bowl. Mayfield, Allen, Rudolph. Tune in.

Worthy of #1?  Or just..."hell we need one...and these are the best available....even if they may really be tantamount to Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton?"

[hoorta]

24 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Worthy of #1?  Or just..."hell we need one...and these are the best available....even if they may really be tantamount to Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton?"

Nope, (subject to further review) I'll take Darnold, Mayfield, or Rosen (though I'm a little concerned about injuries and attitude in his case) (in that order) over Cutler- and certainly (only as good as his supporting cast) Dalton. There's plenty of SW Ohio Bungulites that want Andy gone. Even your guy- Randolph might sneak into the mix- but not @ #1 overall for Mason.  As you probably know, the only big name I'm not keen on is The White Kizer- Josh Allen- his lack of accuracy scares the crap out of me. 

PS- FWIW, I like Darnold and Mayfield as prospects every bit as much as as I did Mitch last year.  

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

6 hours ago, The Gipper said:

It is also the one that I used to say that Mason Rudolph is the top rated QB in this draft....and got all kinds of shite for it.  Like I said:  Do you think I didn't do quite a bit of research into this?

Did you also miss it when I said that MOST  services had Minkah rated in the top 2 overall prospects.  So...instead of being a pluperfect pedantic putz, why don't you give us YOUR opinion on who you would prefer:    Minkah or Derwin James....and why.

Who would I prefer? Derwin, for a few reasons. 

Another person said this and I happen to agree - Minkah isn’t a better true FS prospect than Hooker and he’s not a better true CB prospect than Lattimore. He’s a smart, athletic defender who can do both and do them fairly well, but he’s not a lock at either. His versatility is part of what drives him up the board.

In that same vein, Derwin is a (more) versatile player who followed a career path like that of Peppers - linebacker, safety, corner, $lb. Except he’s on a Sean Taylor level of athleticism, something Peppers is not.

Minkah benefitted from being on probably the most talented and disciplined defensive squad in CFB. Derwin did not. Sure, that makes the transition to the NFL easier...but it doesn’t make him the better player. 

Minkah is the obvious safer choice. But I still believe Derwin is the better player. Maybe not next season, or even the one after,  but I think Derwin will end up having the better career when all is said and done.

And he’ll be available later than Minkah, which means we could still conceivably get someone at #1, someone else at #4, and then package two picks to move up to #15 and get him...and then still have a few picks left over.

 

 

[gumby73]

7 hours ago, The Gipper said:

And why?  Enlighten us.

https://www.stack.com/a/freak-athlete-derwin-james-is-college-footballs-next-superhero  can Derwin be discipline in the NFL? my only worry

[calfoxwc]

Derwin vs Minkah?

they are both very, very similar.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2018-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-minkah-fitzpatrick-joins-james-in-freak-db-tier/

James has better ...stats..

https://herosports.com/college-football/player-comparison/derwin-james-vs-minkah-fitzpatrick

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000819401/article/what-we-learned-alabamas-minkah-fitzpatrick-clocks-blazing-40

The confusion goes on and on. I do have a hunch though, that in interviews, and one question:

"which one of these two is going to make division opponents curse that the Browns drafted him?"

Interviews - Derwin - on leadership, love for the game.

as to the question...

Derwin - he hits like dynamite - and he's a little bigger.

[gumby73]

Cal, most see highlights. dorsey/wolfe should be looking at low-lights..Derwin played at FSU & as TCPO pointed out, FSU had almost 90 penalties. Derwin does like looking for the espn highlight reel hits..Derwin does gamble on teams defensive systems(almost has to due to other 10).sometimes a roamer that Joe Flacco would read TE,Derwin would bite & get beat 60 yards down field. Bama about 70 penalties,  Fitz calls the defense, but all 11 stay discipline to the D system.. Sabin, like Belicheck, Everybody knows their role & sticks to it with no superstar roaming.Pick your poison? just in case, am moving on to a 3rd option, Penn States FS Marcus Allen..how bout a team with only 55 penalties a season..discipline,browns could sure use some       

[Dutch Oven]

I want Fitzpatrick because the Browns need a cornerback, and the Browns need a free safety.

Derwin James is a strong safety - correct? That's where Peppers should play.

Drafting Derwin James IMO is throwing away a first rounder from the draft before.

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

28 minutes ago, Dutch Oven said:

I want Fitzpatrick because the Browns need a cornerback, and the Browns need a free safety.

Derwin James is a strong safety - correct? That's where Peppers should play.

Drafting Derwin James IMO is throwing away a first rounder from the draft before.

Minkah can’t play both at the same time, and he’s not necessarily elite at either of them.

Derwin is listed as a strong safety, but he’s not really. He’s listed as a strong safety because FSU played him basically like you’d play an X-Factor. Need a sack? Derwin on a blitz. 2 TE set? Derwin at LB. 3rd and 3? Put Derwin in the box. 2nd and 1, throw Derwin at FS.

In the NFL, he could project as a strong safety...but he plays FS just about as well as Minkah IMO  (I believe he had one of the lowest catch rates of all CFB FS, IIRC.)

He’s as rangy as, if not rangier than, Minkah and he’s probably the best true athlete in this class when all is said and done. 

People are iffy on the idea of a “weapon” because of the Peppers project, but Derwin is light years ahead of Peppers.

I’m not saying Minkah is bad, because he’s not. Nor am I saying he’ll have a bad career, because he won’t. But Derwin has Sean Taylor potential and will likely be available at 15.

 

 

 

[wargograw]

4 hours ago, Tim Couch Pulls Out said:

Who would I prefer? Derwin, for a few reasons. 

Another person said this and I happen to agree - Minkah isn’t a better true FS prospect than Hooker and he’s not a better true CB prospect than Lattimore. He’s a smart, athletic defender who can do both and do them fairly well, but he’s not a lock at either. His versatility is part of what drives him up the board.

In that same vein, Derwin is a (more) versatile player who followed a career path like that of Peppers - linebacker, safety, corner, $lb. Except he’s on a Sean Taylor level of athleticism, something Peppers is not.

Minkah benefitted from being on probably the most talented and disciplined defensive squad in CFB. Derwin did not. Sure, that makes the transition to the NFL easier...but it doesn’t make him the better player. 

Minkah is the obvious safer choice. But I still believe Derwin is the better player. Maybe not next season, or even the one after,  but I think Derwin will end up having the better career when all is said and done.

And he’ll be available later than Minkah, which means we could still conceivably get someone at #1, someone else at #4, and then package two picks to move up to #15 and get him...and then still have a few picks left over.

 

 

Yeah these Bama and LSU guys never seem to be quite as good as their billing.

[TexasAg1969]

You make a good case Tim. As I said I'd take whichever one is still there @4 if we go QB #1. I just prefer the defensive "brain" out there for a Browns team that looks lost from time to time on defense. Never underestimate the value of instant play diagnosis by a skilled defensive wrecker. If James is as good at that as Fitz I would not complain. Dat Nguyen was famous for that ability. Go directly to the 2:42 mark.

 

[Dutch Oven]

8 hours ago, Tim Couch Pulls Out said:

Minkah can’t play both at the same time, and he’s not necessarily elite at either of them.

Derwin is listed as a strong safety, but he’s not really. He’s listed as a strong safety because FSU played him basically like you’d play an X-Factor. Need a sack? Derwin on a blitz. 2 TE set? Derwin at LB. 3rd and 3? Put Derwin in the box. 2nd and 1, throw Derwin at FS.

In the NFL, he could project as a strong safety...but he plays FS just about as well as Minkah IMO  (I believe he had one of the lowest catch rates of all CFB FS, IIRC.)

He’s as rangy as, if not rangier than, Minkah and he’s probably the best true athlete in this class when all is said and done. 

People are iffy on the idea of a “weapon” because of the Peppers project, but Derwin is light years ahead of Peppers.

I’m not saying Minkah is bad, because he’s not. Nor am I saying he’ll have a bad career, because he won’t. But Derwin has Sean Taylor potential and will likely be available at 15.

 

 

 

You make a strong argument for James.

If he's able to be a very good FS, then I would definitely consider him. Everything I had seen on him seemed to point to him playing SS at the NFL level, which the Browns do not (allegedly) need.

[LogicIsForSquares]

1 hour ago, TexasAg1969 said:

You make a good case Tim. As I said I'd take whichever one is still there @4 if we go QB #1. I just prefer the defensive "brain" out there for a Browns team that looks lost from time to time on defense. Never underestimate the value of instant play diagnosis by a skilled defensive wrecker. If James is as good at that as Fitz I would not complain. Dat Nguyen was famous for that ability. Go directly to the 2:42 mark.

 

Dat Nguyen is a name I had not heard in a long time. It is a shame that injuries took a toll on him.

[calfoxwc]

James has also been played as a cb, I think. I watched several interviews of both, seems that

a slight edge goes to James for leadership- just a guess.

Marcus Allen is terrific - but he isn't in the same class as James and Minkah.

Having said that, most mocks have James going later. Beats me. James goes #14 here...

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2018-nfl-mock-draft-five-qbs-go-in-first-round-but-a-trade-makes-sense-at-the-top/

[The Gipper]

17 hours ago, Tim Couch Pulls Out said:

Who would I prefer? Derwin, for a few reasons. 

Another person said this and I happen to agree - Minkah isn’t a better true FS prospect than Hooker and he’s not a better true CB prospect than Lattimore. He’s a smart, athletic defender who can do both and do them fairly well, but he’s not a lock at either. His versatility is part of what drives him up the board.

In that same vein, Derwin is a (more) versatile player who followed a career path like that of Peppers - linebacker, safety, corner, $lb. Except he’s on a Sean Taylor level of athleticism, something Peppers is not.

Minkah benefitted from being on probably the most talented and disciplined defensive squad in CFB. Derwin did not. Sure, that makes the transition to the NFL easier...but it doesn’t make him the better player. 

Minkah is the obvious safer choice. But I still believe Derwin is the better player. Maybe not next season, or even the one after,  but I think Derwin will end up having the better career when all is said and done.

And he’ll be available later than Minkah, which means we could still conceivably get someone at #1, someone else at #4, and then package two picks to move up to #15 and get him...and then still have a few picks left over.

 

 

Fair enough.   I just know that we need help in the Defensive Backfield.   I would want whichever one turned out to be the best.  And like I said: hell...we could use them both really...if we wanted to stack the deck in one unit.

[The Gipper]

13 hours ago, wargograw said:

Yeah these Bama and LSU guys never seem to be quite as good as their billing.

Not when it comes to the Browns anyway:   a #3 overall on Bama's Trent Richardson.  A #6 overall on Louisiana State's   B. Mingo.  Yes...the Browns have gotten the shite end of the stick from those two schools in recent years.

[Tour2ma]

On 1/10/2018 at 1:43 PM, The Gipper said:

You got a mixed bag of QBs available in this draft....and the third one taken is likely no better than the first one.  Does it matter really if you miss on both Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder?

So now instead of one of two, it's one of three... or four... or six...

On 1/10/2018 at 3:27 PM, The Gipper said:

My point is yea? So?Darnold and Rosen may not be anywhere as good at playing their position as Minkah is at his.   Some don't even have Darnold and Rosen or either as being in the top 2 at their positions. 

As Tour said....if you have an absolutely No Brainer at QB...you go for the QB......but neither of those guys are considered a no brainer by any means.

Not what I said.

On 1/10/2018 at 1:43 PM, The Gipper said:

It may come down to: do we take the best PLAYER in this draft....or do we take who is the best perceived QB in the draft.

And there is the fallacy at the heart of your argument. Best PLAYER is just as much a matter of perception as best QB. And it's not your only fallacy...

Add that perception of college performance is the wrong criteria. It's projection of performance to the next level.

Add that "grading" is imprecise. It's why FOs group players of similar grades on their boards.

 

[Tour2ma]

On 1/10/2018 at 5:32 PM, syd said:

guess we have a long time to talk about it

Yes, we do... and as that time passes a consensus the top one (or two) QB prospect(s) will emerge.

On 1/10/2018 at 5:39 PM, syd said:

thing is times have changed since then so many sports channels national sports radio (cough cough) the internet a lot of info out there some true some not but it usually gets figured out on message boards like these

And not just for rumors...

Go back to '83 and the average fan had no access to information, game tape, etc. to assess draft prospect for themselves. Pretty much the same in '93... better in '03... plenty by '13.

In the absence of the ability to self-assess fans could reference "expert" rankings, but what were few in '83 are now plentiful.

[Tour2ma]

On 1/10/2018 at 6:55 PM, Tim Couch Pulls Out said:

It is. I believe they take a consensus from their writers and assign a grading scale. At least, they used to.

Sounds more like NFL.com's process.

Historically CBS has been "powered by DraftScout.com". But since DraftScout doesn't merge underclassmen until the declaration deadline passes (I think the date is 01-15-18 this year), CBS does something else until then to generate clicks.

22 hours ago, crstphr2 said:

You draft a QB.  Why?  Because how many points did Garrett score this year?

Six... but they were called back due to an offsides.

18 hours ago, Tim Couch Pulls Out said:

In that same vein, Derwin is a (more) versatile player who followed a career path like that of Peppers - linebacker, safety, corner, $lb. Except he’s on a Sean Taylor level of athleticism, something Peppers is not.

That's the key with Derwin... he's not just a SS candidate, he has FS potential. Taylor is one comp I hear; Ed Reed is the other.

[Tour2ma]

Just now, Tour2ma said:

... DraftScout doesn't merge underclassmen until the declaration deadline passes (I think the date is 01-15-18 this year)...

Well time flies... their top 750 is out... http://www.nfldraftscout.com/members/ratings/top750.php?draftyear=2018&sortby=rateall&order=ASC

DSRank	Name	College	Proj	Hgt	Wgt	40	20	10	Bench	Vert Jump	Broad Jump	Shuttle	3Cone
1	Darnold, *Sam	QB, Southern California	1	6-3	220	4.74
2	Barkley, *Saquon	RB, Penn State	1	5-11	230	4.49
3	Rosen, *Josh	QB, UCLA	1	6-3	218	4.97
4	Fitzpatrick, *Minkah	CB, Alabama	1	6-0	201	4.52
5	Chubb, Bradley	DE, North Carolina State	1	6-3	275	4.84
6	James, *Derwin	SS, Florida State	1	6-2	211	4.52
7	Payne, *DaRon	DT, Alabama	1	6-2	308	5.38
8	Nelson, *Quenton	OG, Notre Dame	1	6-4	330	5.23
9	Allen, *Josh	QB, Wyoming	1	6-4	240	4.76
10	Ward, *Denzel	CB, Ohio State	1	5-10	191	4.37

[The Gipper]

48 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

So now instead of one of two, it's one of three... or four... or six...

Not what I said.

And there is the fallacy at the heart of your argument. Best PLAYER is just as much a matter of perception as best QB. And it's not your only fallacy...

Add that perception of college performance is the wrong criteria. It's projection of performance to the next level.

Add that "grading" is imprecise. It's why FOs group players of similar grades on their boards.

 

 How many more times are you going to contradict yourself just for the personal pleasure of disagreeing with me?  

[Tour2ma]

5 hours ago, LogicIsForSquares said:

Dat Nguyen is a name I had not heard in a long time. It is a shame that injuries took a toll on him.

Tends to happen to undersized players who play like they aren't undersized.

Really good kid, too. He was at TAMU when my daughter was... I met him a couple times.

13 hours ago, wargograw said:

Yeah these Bama and LSU guys never seem to be quite as good as their billing.

Sarcasm?

[Tour2ma]

Just now, The Gipper said:

 How many more times are you going to contradict yourself just for the personal pleasure of disagreeing with me?  

Where have I done that?

[TexasAg1969]

2 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Tends to happen to undersized players who play like they aren't undersized.

Really good kid, too. He was at TAMU when my daughter was... I met him a couple times.

He was raised in Rockport and his family had a Vietnamese restaurant almost on the bay call "Who Dat". It had a lot of his stuff from A&M and Dallas displayed there. Nice family. They went back and got me some of their nouc mam (fish sauce) off the family table when I said I had served as an advisor in Phan Thiet - nouc mam capital of Vietnam. None of the watered down stuff set out so Americans could tolerate it. The really pungent smelly stuff I had come to love on everything.

I still wonder if their business was ruined by the hurricane this summer.

[The Gipper]

11 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Where have I done that?

Your post count is 22,374.