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Are the QBs better than they seem?


Buck The Frowns

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Are the numbers of BQ and/or DA drastically reduced by the fact that 4 games each year are played against the two most difficult defenses to get yards and points off of? Probably the answer is yes but by how much? Any math whizzes out there who could figure out how they would look if they played against average defenses in those four games?

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I'd have to go back and look at the schedules but I can't remember Anderson having a good game against a great defense outside of the Giants last year. He put up a ton of his numbers against dreadful defenses early on in '07. Defenses like Cincy that played man against him but the second time around went with a cover two and umbrella three and he threw four picks with the playoffs on the line.

 

Quinn hasn't had enough time yet to even try to decipher your question, even though I know you're just angling to be a smartass.

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I'd have to go back and look at the schedules but I can't remember Anderson having a good game against a great defense outside of the Giants last year. He put up a ton of his numbers against dreadful defenses early on in '07. Defenses like Cincy that played man against him but the second time around went with a cover two and umbrella three and he threw four picks with the playoffs on the line.

 

Quinn hasn't had enough time yet to even try to decipher your question, even though I know you're just angling to be a smartass.

 

I am not angling to be a smartass, I AM a smartass! But in this case, I meant it as a serious question. In baseball years ago, when someone was traded to the Cubs their numbers went through the roof because Wrigley Field increased their offense so much. If someone was traded to Houston it looked like they died, because their offensive numbers dropped so badly. Baseball numbers geeks have ways of accounting for that kind of thing, to find out what someone REALLY is doing. I just wondered if there are football numbers geeks who could say how good the Browns QBs are, accounting for facing the Steelers and Ravens an inordinate number of times.

 

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Are the numbers of BQ and/or DA drastically reduced by the fact that 4 games each year are played against the two most difficult defenses to get yards and points off of? Probably the answer is yes but by how much? Any math whizzes out there who could figure out how they would look if they played against average defenses in those four games?

 

It's difficult to peg the numbers you're looking for. But the short answer is "not really." In fact the converse of which is probably true. And here's what I mean:

 

1.) Neither teams are particularly gifted offensively. They rarely play with a large lead. And thereby, they don't force an inordinate number of throws per game. While they keep their completion percentage reasonably low (about 54% combined), they really only cost a quarterback they'd see twice about 8 incompletions per season off the league average. ((att/game x 4 games x completion percentage) - (league avg att/game x 4 x league avg. comp %). Over the course of 500+ attempts... your really not going to affect a quarterback's completion percentage or QB rating a whole bunch.

 

So, while they boast effective pass defenses, they're not the kind of defenses that really torpedo a quarterback's numbers.

 

Now sure if you had to play them 3 or 4 times each, you'd have a different story to tell. Each team sports a QB rating against that's 20 points lower than the league average. That's substantial. But there's more to that story.

 

So, while the numbers for the Browns qbs may not be dramatically affected by their work against the league's 2 best defenses, they did play 7 games against the top 10 defenses against the pass. However, if you want to see a team's quarterbacks affected by the schedule, look no further than Dallas quarterbacks Tony Romo and Brad Johnson. In 2008, Dallas played 10 games against 7 of the 8 most effective defenses against the pass... including the Ravens and Steelers, albeit only once each. But six games against the Eagles, Giants, and Redskins; and two more against the Packers and Bucs is tough. Each of those teams had a QB rating against under 77 for 2008.

 

2.) And this is a little less scientific... Attacking style defenses "typically" rack up negative plays against poor quarterback play, and hold their own otherwise. In the case of the Steelers, their defense got fat facing the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice), Bruce Gradkowski, and the Redskins' Jason Campbell. They also had the benefit of the Gods so to speak, getting to play the New England Patriots in a driving rain storm, the Chargers in a blizzard, and Cleveland (with Derek Anderson) in a gale force wind storm.

 

The Ravens, to that point, absolutely manhandled Carson Palmer (who was never right physically last year), Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Jason Campbell. And they absolutely turned the Browns' Derek Anderson inside-out. He did throw 4 touchdowns in two games (unfortunately, two for each team).

 

What happens then, the teams rack up sacks and interceptions against the weaker competition. The quarterbacks don't have to carry that loss of yardage with them, but the defenses get to subtract that from passing yards allowed. The INTs dramatically impact both ratings... but more so against a lower avg per attempt.

 

Interesting additional note, both teams obliterated the Eagles Donovan McNabb. But that seems to be the only anomaly. Without benefit of weather, both teams were victimized to some extent by the Manning brothers, and allowed Tony Romo to have some success from a completion/yardage standpoint... although both forced timely turnovers. The Kerry Collins' of the world and (for some reason) the Houston Texans qbs caused mild problems for both defenses.

 

So what I'm saying is this... The Browns quarterbacks are not particularly negatively affected by doubling up on two of the best ranked pass defenses in the league.

 

Actually, it's the Ravens and Steelers whose defensive statistics are to a greater extent improved by having the benefit of facing the Browns and Bengals twice a year.

 

-jj

 

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Are the numbers of BQ and/or DA drastically reduced by the fact that 4 games each year are played against the two most difficult defenses to get yards and points off of? Probably the answer is yes but by how much? Any math whizzes out there who could figure out how they would look if they played against average defenses in those four games?

We cant really say anything for BQ because he was horribly mismanaged and didnt get the time he should have but as for DA i think he is better then last years disaster would imply...poor coaching ,poor coordination,poor gameplan and poor preparations along with rip scherer and ken dorsey as the qb assistants/mentor made DA look bad..i think we have 2 fine qbs and effective coaching will make the difference in both...we are solid at the qb spot regardless of who starts and in the tragic event of our starter getting hurt either will fill in without missing a beat...

 

Im that confident in mangini and his staff and the talent we have at QB....;)

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It's difficult to peg the numbers you're looking for. But the short answer is "not really." In fact the converse of which is probably true. And here's what I mean:

 

1.) Neither teams are particularly gifted offensively. They rarely play with a large lead. And thereby, they don't force an inordinate number of throws per game. While they keep their completion percentage reasonably low (about 54% combined), they really only cost a quarterback they'd see twice about 8 incompletions per season off the league average. ((att/game x 4 games x completion percentage) - (league avg att/game x 4 x league avg. comp %). Over the course of 500+ attempts... your really not going to affect a quarterback's completion percentage or QB rating a whole bunch.

 

So, while they boast effective pass defenses, they're not the kind of defenses that really torpedo a quarterback's numbers.

 

Now sure if you had to play them 3 or 4 times each, you'd have a different story to tell. Each team sports a QB rating against that's 20 points lower than the league average. That's substantial. But there's more to that story.

 

So, while the numbers for the Browns qbs may not be dramatically affected by their work against the league's 2 best defenses, they did play 7 games against the top 10 defenses against the pass. However, if you want to see a team's quarterbacks affected by the schedule, look no further than Dallas quarterbacks Tony Romo and Brad Johnson. In 2008, Dallas played 10 games against 7 of the 8 most effective defenses against the pass... including the Ravens and Steelers, albeit only once each. But six games against the Eagles, Giants, and Redskins; and two more against the Packers and Bucs is tough. Each of those teams had a QB rating against under 77 for 2008.

 

2.) And this is a little less scientific... Attacking style defenses "typically" rack up negative plays against poor quarterback play, and hold their own otherwise. In the case of the Steelers, their defense got fat facing the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice), Bruce Gradkowski, and the Redskins' Jason Campbell. They also had the benefit of the Gods so to speak, getting to play the New England Patriots in a driving rain storm, the Chargers in a blizzard, and Cleveland (with Derek Anderson) in a gale force wind storm.

 

The Ravens, to that point, absolutely manhandled Carson Palmer (who was never right physically last year), Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Jason Campbell. And they absolutely turned the Browns' Derek Anderson inside-out. He did throw 4 touchdowns in two games (unfortunately, two for each team).

 

What happens then, the teams rack up sacks and interceptions against the weaker competition. The quarterbacks don't have to carry that loss of yardage with them, but the defenses get to subtract that from passing yards allowed. The INTs dramatically impact both ratings... but more so against a lower avg per attempt.

 

Interesting additional note, both teams obliterated the Eagles Donovan McNabb. But that seems to be the only anomaly. Without benefit of weather, both teams were victimized to some extent by the Manning brothers, and allowed Tony Romo to have some success from a completion/yardage standpoint... although both forced timely turnovers. The Kerry Collins' of the world and (for some reason) the Houston Texans qbs caused mild problems for both defenses.

 

So what I'm saying is this... The Browns quarterbacks are not particularly negatively affected by doubling up on two of the best ranked pass defenses in the league.

 

Actually, it's the Ravens and Steelers whose defensive statistics are to a greater extent improved by having the benefit of facing the Browns and Bengals twice a year.

 

-jj

You have a very interesting take on this. Numbers can lie, if not interpreted correctly. To go along with their defense Pgh plays a ball control offense which means grinding out yards, eating clock, and not turning the ball over often. They don't demand much from their QB, just to not throw many picks. You are right about them not obliterating others with their offense, just grinding it out. On paper. it looks like Kurt Warner lit them up in the Super Bowl, but really they had a (small) lead all but a few minutes of the game and played some form of a prevent defense much of the game allowing him good completion numbers underneath.

I don't know about the field conditions part - both teams do play on the same field, though a ball control offense is affected a lot less by bad conditions, something a Cleveland team must deal with as opposed to say, Houston, Arizona, Miami, etc.

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The football numbers geeks are over at www.footballoutsiders.com.

 

Per their stats, Derek Anderson ranked 32nd among QB's with 100 or more passes. That incudes adjustments for the defense he was facing in a given week.

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The football numbers geeks are over at www.footballoutsiders.com.

 

Per their stats, Derek Anderson ranked 32nd among QB's with 100 or more passes. That incudes adjustments for the defense he was facing in a given week.

 

RAC was a genius when it came to making adjustmnets on the D. Cream filled or jelly!

 

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