Possibility for HOF

[The Gipper]

With the retirement of Andrew Luck, naturally this sort of thing crops up on sports talk, as it did today:

What is the potential that each current starting QB in the NFL has to make the HOF?     I will list each name of each starter in the league.   Give your opinion on their HOF status.   Be it...sure thing....or Never in this universe,  or  On his way....or  looking good...whatever:  Going West to East.

1. Russell Wilson

2. Jimmy Garrapolo

3. Derek Carr

4. Phillip Rivers

5. Jared Goff

6. Kyler Murray

7. Joe Flacco

8. Dak Prescott

9. DeShaun Watson

10. Kirk Cousins

11. Patick Mahomes

12. Drew Brees

13. Aaron Rodgers

14. Mitch Trubisky

15. Matt Stafford

16. Andrew Luck/Jacoby Brissquet

17. Baker Mayfield

18. Andy Dalton

19. Marcus Mariota

20. Matt Ryan

21. Nick Foles

22. Jameis Winston

23. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen

24. Cam Newton

25. Case Keenum

26. Lamar Jackson

27. Ben Roethlisberger

28. Carson Wentz

29. Josh Allen

30. Sam Darnold

31. Eli Manning

32. Tom Brady

[The Gipper]

Just as a side note...and a point of comparison perhaps, the Bleacher report lists the following as the best 10 QBs who are NOT in the HOF:

10. Dave Kreig

9. Don Meredith

8. Jim Hart

7. Bernie Kosar

6. Roman Gabriel

5. John Hadl

4. Phil Simms

3. Boomer Esiason

2. Randall Cunningham

1. Ken Anderson

(notice:  Others to compare:  2 time SB winner Jim Plunkett, Tommy Thompson,  Testaverde, Bledsoe, Archie Manning, Theisman, Tony Romo, Carson Palmer)

[The Gipper]

Here, perhaps is one way to approach this:    By using the PFR  Career Average stat.

And you will find something interesting.    The QB who played his career primarily Post Merger, i.e. post 1970 who is IN the HOF with the lowest Career Average is:   Dan Fouts with a 162.  

The QB whose CA is the highest who played his career primarily post 1970 who is NOT in the HOF?

Ken Anderson...with a 161 CA.!!

Ergo...let's make a statement/assumption that any QB who has played his career since 1970  who has a 162 or higher CA  should be a virtual lock for the HOF.   So that means all of the following QBs will make the HOF based on their CA

Eli Manning   162.  Matt Ryan 166. Aaron Rodgers 170. Ben Roethlisberger 185. Phillip Rivers 191.  Drew Brees 256. Tom Brady 269. Peyton Manning 271 (only one retired but not yet HOF eligible)

So...who has a chance out of the above group of all NFL starters to reach the "Magic" 162 CA mark?

Right now, the leaders in the clubhouse to make that mark are:

Cam Newton 122

Russell Wilson 114

Joe Flacco 113

Matt Stafford 110

Andy Dalton  91. 

No other active QB has reached the 90 mark.   Perennial fill-in Ryan Fitzpatrick has an 86 score.

Even without having done this research on the CA.....I would have said that I think that Rodgers/BR/Rivers/Brees/Brady...of the actives were shoe ins.  That Ryan could be on his way...as he is still not that old.  And that Eli was borderline.

I also would have said that Newton and Wilson...barring serious injury....were well on their way.   I would have said that Stafford  would be a very borderline case,  that Flacco would fall short, save a miraculous turnaround in Denver (noting also that he is  now 34...and the likes of Stafford is just 31 and Wilson/Newton are only  30......and that for anyone else that it is just too early/highly speculative. 

 

[The Gipper]

To bring this back to Andrew Luck.....who is close to the same age as Newton/Wilson.   His PFR CA is a 79.  But he has missed huge chunks of 3 years in his career.  Luck has started 86 games in his career.   Wilson, drafted the same year, has 112 starts....almost 2 more full years of starts. 

[The Gipper]

Subtle differences:

On the Fouts vs. Anderson debate, and why one is in and the other not.  Let's look at their stats

Stat....................Fouts..........................Anderson

Starts.............171................................172

Record...........86-84-1............................91-81

Comp/att......3297/5604...................2654/4475

Comp. %.........58.8...........................59.3

Yards.............43,040.......................32,838

TDs..............254.............................197

TD%.............4.5.............................4.4

INTs.............242.............................160

Int% ...........4.3..............................3.6

Yds/att........7.7...........................7.3

yds/comp....13.1.......................12.4

Yds/game.....237.8..................171

Rating.........80.2.....................81.9

Sacks.........319......................398

yds lost......2304.................2875

GWDs.........23....................10

4th Qtr comebacks....23........21

Super Bowls   -0-....................1

CA...............162.................161

I would say that the big difference between them, and the thing that got Fouts in.....was that he played in the more up tempo/pass happy Don Coryell version of the West Coast offense....in virtually the same number of games, Fouts threw the ball  1129 more times....or about 7 more passes per game more.  It also seems that Anderson tended to hold the ball more...seeing the sack numbers.  (either that or he had a much lousier OL.)

[hoorta]

2 hours ago, The Gipper said:

Just as a side note...and a point of comparison perhaps, the Bleacher report lists the following as the best 10 QBs who are NOT in the HOF:

10. Dave Kreig

9. Don Meredith

8. Jim Hart

7. Bernie Kosar

6. Roman Gabriel

5. John Hadl

4. Phil Simms

3. Boomer Esiason

2. Randall Cunningham

1. Ken Anderson

(notice:  Others to compare:  2 time SB winner Jim Plunkett, Tommy Thompson,  Testaverde, Bledsoe, Archie Manning, Theisman, Tony Romo, Carson Palmer)

MHO for one reason  or another  none of the above will ever get in.

[hoorta]

2 hours ago, The Gipper said:

To bring this back to Andrew Luck.....who is close to the same age as Newton/Wilson.   His PFR CA is a 79.  But he has missed huge chunks of 3 years in his career.  Luck has started 86 games in his career.   Wilson, drafted the same year, has 112 starts....almost 2 more full years of starts. 

Heard a talking  head expert on ESPN say Luck won't  make it,  injury  shortened career. Brady, Brees, Rivers, and Ben all have stats way better than Andy. And they'll  all get in before the  selection  committee gives Luck the time  of day. 

[mjp28]

The teams they played for also enters into the equations and their lifetime numbers.

For example Bart Starr played on some great teams was he a great quarterback?

[The Gipper]

23 minutes ago, mjp28 said:

The teams they played for also enters into the equations and their lifetime numbers.

For example Bart Starr played on some great teams was he a great quarterback?

Yes...he was.  Leadership is part of the equation for a QB...and he is among the greatest leaders of all time.  Even if he did not have all the gawdy passing stats that QBs today have...he was the leader for 5 Championship teams. 

[The Gipper]

I have to retract a bit of information I gave above...I said that no QB that had played their career post merger/1970 who had a CA of 162 or lower was int the HOF.    Well, that is an error:

Jim Kelly had a CA of 132,  ...4 straight SB appearances got him in.

Troy Aikman had a CA of 122....3 SB titles

Bradshaw was 137.....4 SB titles.

 Bob Griese  139. Two SB titles....plus on loss (drafted in 60s, played mostly in 70s),

Staubach...who, while he graduated from college n 1964...did not begin his career until 1969...and played mostly in the 70s.....had a 128. 4 SB appearance...2 wins, 2 losses.

 Ken Stabler had a 119....one SB win

But... a lot of QBs who played pre -1970 did get in without real high CAs:

Dawson  144

Unitas 145

Jurgenson 139

Blanda 126

Starr 119

plus the guys mentioned herein above.

Also, note:  The CA figure only started around 1960...so, Otto Graham, Sid Luckman, Sammy Baugh etc. were not given CA figures.

The one guy that played most of his career in the 60s with the highest CA that is not in appears to be John Hadl....with a 143.

Here are some CAs of some other NON-HOFer QBs.  

Carson Palmer 142

Vinny Testaverde...143 

Dave Kreig 138

Randall Cunningham  134

Roman Gabriel  131

John Brodie  129

Steve McNair  126

tony romo  116.

None likely to get in.  ONLY McNair even made a SB appearance.

[Zombo]

Eli is not in my Hall of Fame, nor is Ryan.

Rodgers, Rivers, Ben, Brees, Brady are in.

Wilson is on the path.

Zombo

[blitzz2]

13 hours ago, The Gipper said:

With the retirement of Andrew Luck, naturally this sort of thing crops up on sports talk, as it did today:

What is the potential that each current starting QB in the NFL has to make the HOF?     I will list each name of each starter in the league.   Give your opinion on their HOF status.   Be it...sure thing....or Never in this universe,  or  On his way....or  looking good...whatever:  Going West to East.

1. Russell Wilson : On his way, has a SB, 2 way threat.Can carry his team

2. Jimmy Garrapolo   nope

3. Derek Carr  nope, at this point.

4. Phillip Rivers: Think he's a lock, if he makes a SB ..for sure

5. Jared Goff: to soon

6. Kyler Murray: no body of work

7. Joe Flacco  nope

8. Dak Prescott  to soon, needs to show consistency, maybe Amari will help

9. DeShaun Watson: on his way?

10. Kirk Cousins  nope

11. Patick Mahomes: young, if his 1st season is the benchmark, and he puts up anywhere comparables..lock

12. Drew Brees: lock

13. Aaron Rodgers: lock

14. Mitch Trubisky   to soon

15. Matt Stafford: will be considered, but needs a good run of seasons

16. Andrew Luck/Jacoby Brissquet: no

17. Baker Mayfield: To soon,

18. Andy Dalton no

19. Marcus Mariota  no

20. Matt Ryan yes

21. Nick Foles no

22. Jameis Winston no

23. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen  no

24. Cam Newton  if he can get healthy and make another title run...yes

25. Case Keenumno

26. Lamar Jackson  will see

27. Ben Roethlisberger  lock

28. Carson Wentz  health will hold him back

29. Josh Allen  no

30. Sam Darnold  wait and see

31. Eli Manning  as much as it pains me  yes

32. Tom Brady  lol  

 

[The Gipper]

25 minutes ago, Zombo said:

Eli is not in my Hall of Fame, nor is Ryan.

Rodgers, Rivers, Ben, Brees, Brady are in.

Wilson is on the path.

Zombo

I don't think there is any debate about Brady, Ben R, Rodgers, Brees.  (Peyton obviously as well...not eligible yet)   Eli//Ryan//Rivers.....are issues.   Eli's two SB wins have him obviously in the conversation.  Rivers, Ryan....have numbers....but are numbers enough?  Eli has numbers as well. Ryan should have had a SB win....gotta blame that on the ATL defense for giving up a 25 pt. lead.  Rivers has one single AFC conf. championship game appearance to his record. ...for what that is worth. 

On Eli's numbers, he kinda has those too:

Completions #6 all time  (will pass Marino assuming he plays much)

Yards  #7 all time

TDs #8

Rating #42

YPG  #15

Game winning drives  #9

Comeback #11

 

[The Gipper]

Note this on numbers:   Eli pretty much has the edge there as well:

Rivers

Completions   #8      Eli #6

Yards  #8   Eli  #7

TDs  Rivers  374    Eli 360

YPG  Rivers  #12  Eli #15

Rating   Rivers #8   Eli  much lower  Eli's Ints an issue

Game winning drives   #17  Eli  #9

Comebacks #13   Eli  #11

Honestly.....aside from the 2 SB wins....I think Eli has the numbers edge all around as well.

[hoorta]

4 hours ago, Zombo said:

Eli is not in my Hall of Fame, nor is Ryan.

Rodgers, Rivers, Ben, Brees, Brady are in.

Wilson is on the path.

Zombo

I agree with Gipper Eli's two Super Bowl wins will be the ticket that gets him in.  He's not getting in on the first ballot though. 

Of non quarterbacks I thought Chris Carter got stiffed far too long.  

[The Gipper]

17 minutes ago, hoorta said:

I agree with Gipper Eli's two Super Bowl wins will be the ticket that gets him in.  He's not getting in on the first ballot though. 

Of non quarterbacks I thought Chris Carter got stiffed far too long.  

A. Like I said...he even has the numbers mostly over Rivers. 

I am of the opinion that  Eli/Rivers/BR will now be engaging in a dick swinging contest...to see who blinks first and retires from the league. 

B. It took Carter like 12 or 13 years to make it.  It took Swann 14.  Based on comparative numbers....a guy like Gary Collins should have been chosen over him....however, he played on 4 title teams and make some spectacular catches in the SB.  Collins overall was better, imo.

[Zombo]

3 hours ago, The Gipper said:

Note this on numbers:   Eli pretty much has the edge there as well:

Rivers

Compl %   #8      Eli #6

Yards  #8   Eli  #7

TDs  Rivers  374    Eli 360

YPG  Rivers  #12  Eli #15

Rating   Rivers #8   Eli  much lower  Eli's Ints an issue

Game winning drives   #17  Eli  #9

Comebacks #13   Eli  #11

Honestly.....aside from the 2 SB wins....I think Eli has the numbers edge all around as well.

Well, if you just are compiling numbers, than Eli should have the edge because he had a year and a half head start ... Let's remember River backed up Brees for two years while Eli became the starter halfway through his rookie year.

But Rivers will more than make that up because Eli is most likely in his final year and Rivers is coming off three straight Pro Bowl Seasons, is getting a new contract, and they haven't even bothered drafting his heir yet.

But if you want to know who has been the more effective QB, then these are the numbers to look at:

Rivers 64.5 Comp%,  7.7 y/a, 5.3 TD %, 2.5% Int, 95.6 Rating

Eli 60.3 Comp%, 7.0 y/a, 4.5 TD %, 3.0% Int 84.1 Rating

Yards per Game, Rivers 257-241.

So Rivers is more accurate, for more average yards, with a higher percentage of TDs and a lower percentage of INTs

What is Eli better at again?

8 Pro Bowls to 4 Pro Bowls ... I could go on.

Rivers is 5th among Active QBs in QB rating, and Eli is 22nd.

Yes, Eli will eventually get in the HOF because of the two Super Bowls, but Rivers is the better QB, which is why he makes MY HOF and Eli doesn't.

Zombo

[The Gipper]

30 minutes ago, Zombo said:

Well, if you just are compiling numbers, than Eli should have the edge because he had a year and a half head start ... Let's remember River backed up Brees for two years while Eli became the starter halfway through his rookie year.

But Rivers will more than make that up because Eli is most likely in his final year and Rivers is coming off three straight Pro Bowl Seasons, is getting a new contract, and they haven't even bothered drafting his heir yet.

But if you want to know who has been the more effective QB, then these are the numbers to look at:

Rivers 64.5 Comp%,  7.7 y/a, 5.3 TD %, 2.5% Int, 95.6 Rating

Eli 60.3 Comp%, 7.0 y/a, 4.5 TD %, 3.0% Int 84.1 Rating

Yards per Game, Rivers 257-241.

So Rivers is more accurate, for more average yards, with a higher percentage of TDs and a lower percentage of INTs

What is Eli better at again?

Winning Championships....playing for Championships.  

8 Pro Bowls to 4 Pro Bowls ... I could go on.

Rivers is 5th among Active QBs in QB rating, and Eli is 22nd.

That, I believe is strictly based on Eli throwing more Ints.   Of course, that is a factor, but that didn't hurt Brett Favre....all time Int. leader or Fouts, or Marino or Unitas or Tarkenton...or Peyton...who have all thrown for more career Ints for Eli.

Yes, Eli will eventually get in the HOF because of the two Super Bowls, but Rivers is the better QB, which is why he makes MY HOF and Eli doesn't.

I would put them both in...but I would put Eli in first. 

 

 

 

[Nero]

If I was asked by the HOF commitee (spellcheck?), I would vote for Rivers and leave Eli behind. The only thing Eli is the best at is at staying on the field. Almost never misses a game due to injury and that's remarkable. 

He is lucky to have had good defenses for both SB runs and to play for a NY team that gets way more media attention than it deserves.

[Zombo]

41 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

That, I believe is strictly based on Eli throwing more Ints. 

As I pointed out it was all four ingredients that go into the passer rating: Comp%, y/a, TD% and INT%

And they are from the same draft class, so need to bring up the guys from the 70's and 80's with higher interception percentages. Peyton has a lower intereception % than Eli as well, Rivers is closer statistically to Peyton than Eli is.

Zombo

[The Gipper]

2 minutes ago, Nero said:

If I was asked by the HOF commitee (spellcheck?), I would vote for Rivers and leave Eli behind. The only thing Eli is the best at is at staying on the field. Almost never misses a game due to injury and that's remarkable. 

There are a lot of people in the HOF for just that reason.  Not everyone who lasts gets in (see:  Vinny)....but a lot are in for that reason.

He is lucky to have had good defenses for both SB runs and to play for a NY team that gets way more media attention than it deserves.

Every winning SB team has good defenses.  And winning championships gets you media attention, be you in NYC or Cleveland. (LeBron had no trouble getting media attention when he was here.)

[The Gipper]

1 minute ago, Zombo said:

As I pointed out it was all four ingredients that go into the passer rating: Comp%, y/a, TD% and INT%

And they are from the same draft class, so need to bring up the guys from the 70's and 80's with higher interception percentages. Peyton has a lower intereception % than Eli as well, Rivers is closer statistically to Peyton than Eli is.

Zombo

Other than that Int. %....I saw the statistical differences as minimal.  

But I disagree somewhat with the 80s guys not being able to be compared.   The BIG change in QB stats  came about in 1978 as a result of the bump and run rule changes.  And the not hitting QB changes that came in then too. (plus many later).  So, I think you can compare him to Favre and Marino....but no, not  Bradshaw/Unitas.   Good QBs back then could have a 1:1  TD to Int. ratio.  And lower pass completions pct. yes.  Also note that interceptions were more frequent.  Paul Krause leading all in Ints....he played in the 60s.  Thom Darden, Browns leader, in the 70s. 

[Zombo]

30 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Other than that Int. %....I saw the statistical differences as minimal.  

But I disagree somewhat with the 80s guys not being able to be compared.   The BIG change in QB stats  came about in 1978 as a result of the bump and run rule changes.  And the not hitting QB changes that came in then too. (plus many later).  So, I think you can compare him to Favre and Marino....but no, not  Bradshaw/Unitas.   Good QBs back then could have a 1:1  TD to Int. ratio.  And lower pass completions pct. yes.  Also note that interceptions were more frequent.  Paul Krause leading all in Ints....he played in the 60s.  Thom Darden, Browns leader, in the 70s. 

I dont know why you are hung up on interceptions, Rivers advantage is significant, but it is probably the least of their statistical differences. 

Again ...

Rivers 64.5 Comp%,  7.7 y/a, 5.3 TD %, 2.5% Int, 95.6 Rating

Eli 60.3 Comp%, 7.0 y/a, 4.5 TD %, 3.0% Int 84.1 Rating

Yards per Game, Rivers 257-241.

[The Gipper]

57 minutes ago, Zombo said:

I dont know why you are hung up on interceptions, Rivers advantage is significant, but it is probably the least of their statistical differences. 

Again ...

Rivers 64.5 Comp%,  7.7 y/a, 5.3 TD %, 2.5% Int, 95.6 Rating

Eli 60.3 Comp%, 7.0 y/a, 4.5 TD %, 3.0% Int 84.1 Rating

Yards per Game, Rivers 257-241.

Eli’s advantage is significant two championships to zero. More than makes up for the minor statistical differences. And is it his fault Rivers wasn’t considered good enough to start for his team as a rookie

[Zombo]

52 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Eli’s advantage is significant two championships to zero. More than makes up for the minor statistical differences. And is it his fault Rivers wasn’t considered good enough to start for his team as a rookie

It's a team sport.

And the differences aren't minor.

Joe Flacco won a Super Bowl, but it doesn't make him as good as Phillip Rivers, it just doesn't. 

Eli is basically Joe Flacco with two rings instead of one. His longevity, durability and two amazing postseason runs will get him in the Hall. But he's not as good a QB as Rivers.

Z

[The Gipper]

2 hours ago, Zombo said:

It's a team sport.

And the differences aren't minor.

Joe Flacco won a Super Bowl, but it doesn't make him as good as Phillip Rivers, it just doesn't. 

Eli is basically Joe Flacco with two rings instead of one. His longevity, durability and two amazing postseason runs will get him in the Hall. But he's not as good a QB as Rivers.

Z

Winning still counts. Someone here claimed that Bart Starr wasn’t all that good of a quarterback because his numbers weren’t quite as good. Does anyone want to contend that Bart Starr was not as good a quarterback is Philip Rivers?

[Zombo]

15 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Winning still counts. Someone here claimed that Bart Starr wasn’t all that good of a quarterback because his numbers weren’t quite as good. Does anyone want to contend that Bart Starr was not as good a quarterback is Philip Rivers?

I have great respect for Bart Starr, my point is simply that Philip Rivers is a better QB than Eli Manning, and you don't have to go back in history to prove it, their careers are right in front of us.

Rivers also has a higher winning % than Manning, who is two games over .500 and will probably be a .500 career qb by week three.

He had two great postseason runs. With the help of some circus catches and a relentless pass rush.

Good, durable, reliable Qb that made some history. Not a great QB, and not as good as Rivers. Or Ben. He was easily the third best QB in that draft.

Z

[TexasAg1969]

1. Russell Wilson--------------------------------yes

2. Jimmy Garrapolo---------------------------no

3. Derek Carr-------------------------------------no

4. Phillip Rivers--------------------------------yes

5. Jared Goff-----------------------------------yes

6. Kyler Murray--------------------------------total bust

7. Joe Flacco----------------------------------no

8. Dak Prescott------------------------------definite maybe

9. DeShaun Watson----------------------no

10. Kirk Cousins---------------------------no

11. Patick Mahomes--------------------yes

12. Drew Brees-----------------------------tie for first yes with Brady

13. Aaron Rodgers-----------------------yes

14. Mitch Trubisky-----------------------no

15. Matt Stafford-------------------------no

16. Andrew Luck/Jacoby Brissquet-no

17. Baker Mayfield----------------------turn the Browns into yearly playoff contenders would do the trick

18. Andy Dalton---------------------------LOLOLOLOL

19. Marcus Mariota----------------------ditto

20. Matt Ryan-------------------------------only a SB win would do it

21. Nick Foles--------------------------------no

22. Jameis Winston-----------------------nope

23. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen--ditto

24. Cam Newton-----------------------------no

25. Case Keenum---------------------------lol

26. Lamar Jackson-------------------------no

27. Ben Roethlisberger--------------------yes

28. Carson Wentz----------------------------no

29. Josh Allen---------------------------------tied for LOLOLOLOL with Dalton

30. Sam Darnold------------------------------just maybe-see Baker Mayfield

31. Eli Manning--------------------------------big brother wins the lobby effect

32. Tom Brady---------------------------------see Brees

[The Gipper]

9 hours ago, Zombo said:

I have great respect for Bart Starr, my point is simply that Philip Rivers is a better QB than Eli Manning, and you don't have to go back in history to prove it, their careers are right in front of us.

Rivers also has a higher winning % than Manning, who is two games over .500 and will probably be a .500 career qb by week three.

He had two great postseason runs. With the help of some circus catches and a relentless pass rush.

Good, durable, reliable Qb that made some history. Not a great QB, and not as good as Rivers. Or Ben. He was easily the third best QB in that draft.

Z

OK, well, you are entitled to be wrong once in a while. 

[Zombo]

12 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

OK, well, you are entitled to be wrong once in a while. 

There's nothing I have said that is wrong.

I can sit here all day and point out QBs that won less less Super Bowls that are better than QBs that won more Super Bowls.

Rivers is more accurate, much higher rated, more decorated than Eli.

65.3 comp% 7.7 y/a, 5.7 TD % 2.7% Int, 96.5 Rating  270.5 yd/g 14 Pro Bowls

64.5 Comp%,  7.7 y/a, 5.3 TD %, 2.5% Int, 95.6 Rating 257.8 yd/g 8 Pro Bowls

 

61.7 Comp% , 6.7 y/a, 3.7 TD% , 2.4 Int %, 84.1 Rating 234.6 yd/g 0 Pro Bowls

60.3 Comp%, 7.0 y/a, 4.5 TD %, 3.0% Int 84.1 Rating 241.3 yd/g 4 Pro Bowls

 

The Top Two are Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers with 22 Pro Bowls, similar numbers, but only 2 Super Bowl wins

The Bottom Two are Joe Flacco and Eli manning, similar numbers, but 3 Super Bowl wins ... They must be better.

Zombo

--Phillip Rivers 28 games above .500, Eli 2 games above .500