calfoxwc Posted October 22, 2019 Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 I'm determined to win five of my bucks back from our close friend's daughter - a huge Patriots fan - who thinks Brady is so pretty. yeek. My Wife said that they were talking about how the Patriots study the referees - that some refs call some things, some don't. So, they act accordingly in a game. Very interesting..... if the (some are dishonest) refs are doing that, making themselves relevant...to the outcome of a game to a point.... then that is information to be used by the team. Maybe he learned that from being a disastrous hc with the Browns back in the day.... it will be a tough game - what was it? the defense has only given up a couple of rushiing TD's and only one passing TD ? Danny Shelton was still collapsing the pocket for the patriots. My five bucks says the Browns will beat em. (Gregg Williams...33-0. egad) Not enough defense there lol) But the Patriots will have to know they won't run much vs the Browns. I just hope Ward and Greedy are back... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted October 22, 2019 Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 oh, and about the Patriots offensive line - it's actually rated #8 here https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff/2019 Browns are #27 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasAg1969 Posted October 22, 2019 Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 19 minutes ago, calfoxwc said: I'm determined to win five of my bucks back from our close friend's daughter..... My five bucks says the Browns will beat em. So double or nothing on the $10 week nine?🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjp28 Posted October 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 Tuesday 9 am. Hey the Jets just scored !! And I thought this was going to be a 40-10 game, silly me. VegasInsider.com@TwitVI The #Patriots (-9.5) killed the #Jets 33-0, and the 'under' connected for the 17th time in 22 primetime games in 2019. And we get #Dolphins-#Steelers next Monday! Woo-hoo. #NFL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted October 22, 2019 Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, mjp28 said: Tuesday 9 am. Hey the Jets just scored !! And I thought this was going to be a 40-10 game, silly me. VegasInsider.com@TwitVI The #Patriots (-9.5) killed the #Jets 33-0, and the 'under' connected for the 17th time in 22 primetime games in 2019. And we get #Dolphins-#Steelers next Monday! Woo-hoo. #NFL I'll tell ya this much-as a gamblin man, the rule of thumb is high double digit favorites were always the "easy bet" to give the points on the underdog. I'd be curious the percentage of double digit favorites covering, it's gotta be 75% or more. The good vs the bad teams in the NFL is the most polar I've witnessed in a good while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SdBacker80 Posted October 22, 2019 Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 38 minutes ago, calfoxwc said: oh, and about the Patriots offensive line - it's actually rated #8 here https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff/2019 Browns are #27 How much of that is credited to pass blocking for 2 seconds. Josh McDaniels on record saying after the injuries and they’ve had many they need to get the ball out quickly. Scheme and QB can make or break and offensive line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SdBacker80 Posted October 22, 2019 Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 2 hours ago, jiggins7919 said: I would like to immediately alter my former prediction of the upcoming Patriots game, and now I predict we will lose approximately 137-2. Ummm...that game last night was exactly the OPPOSITE of what I wanted to see. All the buzz is currently around the Patriots' defense, and rightfully so. They've allowed the second fewest points in the Super Bowl era. I can rattle off many more terrifying statistics, but you guys get the point. They play this "Cover Zero" style blitzing defense and several analysts predict it will influence how other teams play defense, similar to the Tampa Two (Cover 2) defenses from the old Bucs that so many coaches emulated. It had Darnold "seeing ghosts" and hopefully Baker will fare better. Can we win? We CAN, but it will have to be our best game of the year, better than Baltimore. Believe it or not, the Jets had multiple chances to score. They had two red zone INTs before the 4th quarter started, so it could have easily been a relatively close game if the Jets converted their opportunities. Unfortunately, converting red zone opportunities hasn't been our strong suit, but perhaps it's time to change that. Jets also had some very untimely penalties that extended drives, and Patriots WILL make you pay if you do that. The smart money would be on Baker struggling, just like everyone else, but you never know. Darnold also missed two deep shots that were there, and missed a 4th down pass in the red zone that was open. Translation? You MUST convert the opportunities given to you because they aren't going to come often. Let's freaking GO Browns. Darnold was throwing floaters off his back foot. I’m sure the Pats D is good and they certainly capitalized which makes them good. But the Pats D has some help last night I’d actually prefer they go cover zero - play man and blitz Baker. As long as we don’t see 5 WR empty back sets and go routes down the field. We do that so hold your breath. Baker has problems with zone and layered coverages. I’m sure we see it this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjp28 Posted October 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 16 minutes ago, jrb12711 said: I'll tell ya this much-as a gamblin man, the rule of thumb is high double digit favorites were always the "easy bet" to give the points on the underdog. I'd be curious the percentage of double digit favorites covering, it's gotta be 75% or more. The good vs the bad teams in the NFL is the most polar I've witnessed in a good while. I'm looking for some up to date information on the double digit favorites ATS historically they've done well but not near 75% more like almost 60%. So far underdogs and unders have done well this year. From covers.... AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS (ATS) Category Record Percent Away Teams 65-39-2 62.50% Home Teams 39-65-2 37.50% Favorites 43-61-2 41.35% Dogs 61-43-2 58.65% Away Favorites 20-16-0 55.56% Away Dogs 45-23-2 66.18% <------ ! Home Favorites 23-45-2 33.82% Home Dogs 16-20-0 44.44% OVER VS. UNDER TRENDS Category Overs Percent Unders Percent Overtime Games 3 100.00% 0 0.00% Non-Overtime Games 46 44.66% 57 55.34% All Games 49 46.23% 57 53.77% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hx214 Posted October 22, 2019 Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 Man.... Steelers Fins Jets Bills Redskins Giants Jets Outside of the Bills..... have the Pats had to do anything but show up to the game for the W? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjp28 Posted October 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 The Patriots have covered every game but the home vs JETS and at Buffalo. Could they go undefeated probably not but they have a few tests ahead and probably will be favored in most all. CLEVELAND.....upset time? at Baltimore at Philadelphia DALLAS at Houston KANSAS CITY at Cincinnati BUFFALO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoorta Posted October 22, 2019 Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 36 minutes ago, mjp28 said: The Patriots have covered every game but the home vs JETS and at Buffalo. Could they go undefeated probably not but they have a few tests ahead and probably will be favored in most all. CLEVELAND.....upset time? at Baltimore at Philadelphia DALLAS at Houston KANSAS CITY at Cincinnati BUFFALO Early line Browns +10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjp28 Posted October 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 1 hour ago, hoorta said: Early line Browns +10. Opened at 11 was off at some places after the NE game, this morning at +12.5 to +13. People must be jumping on the Patriots. https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Bone Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 On 10/21/2019 at 6:24 PM, hx214 said: Is the defense really that good or.... Jets offense... Guessing the Browns are finding out first hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hx214 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 1 hour ago, D Bone said: Guessing the Browns are finding out first hand. Really though? Nick Chubb basically doing whatever he wants. He is Averaging 9.2 yards a carry with 92 yards at HALF. And yep he fumbled inside the 10 and they are still only down 10 after spotting them 17. Offensive linemen kicks the ball out of his own running backs hands, to the defense the runs it back untouched.. how many times has that ever happened. Or the Browns OLmen forgets to block a guy and Baker tosses it to him.... If this is the NFL’s number one defense, I’m not impressed. Doesn’t look anything like those Ravens or Steelers defenses all those years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Bone Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 1 hour ago, hx214 said: Really though? Nick Chubb basically doing whatever he wants. He is Averaging 9.2 yards a carry with 92 yards at HALF. And yep he fumbled inside the 10 and they are still only down 10 after spotting them 17. Offensive linemen kicks the ball out of his own running backs hands, to the defense the runs it back untouched.. how many times has that ever happened. Or the Browns OLmen forgets to block a guy and Baker tosses it to him.... If this is the NFL’s number one defense, I’m not impressed. Doesn’t look anything like those Ravens or Steelers defenses all those years. OK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hx214 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, D Bone said: OK After watching that defense I’m worried they wont be able to stop the run on Baltimore next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Bone Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 1 minute ago, hx214 said: After watching that defense I’m worried they would be able to stop the run on Baltimore next week. OK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Bone Posted November 4, 2019 Report Share Posted November 4, 2019 On 10/27/2019 at 4:41 PM, hx214 said: After watching that defense I’m worried they wont be able to stop the run on Baltimore next week. Damn..... you called that one! Good job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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