The Gipper Posted November 12, 2009 Report Share Posted November 12, 2009 Where IS the best place to find a true Hall of Famer at the QB position? Well, let's look at where those who ARE HOF QBs have been found. Here is the list of those who are considered "modern" QBs and where the were drafted or how they were obtained: George Blanda Bears #2 round pick 1949. Played numerous years with Bears before going to AFL Raiders. Len Dawson Steelers #1 round pick 1957. Cut or traded after 3 years. Signed with AFL Chiefs Bob Griese Dolphins #1 round pick 1967 Johnny Unitas Steelers #9 round pick 1955. Cut, then picked up by Colts Joe Montana 49ers #3 round pick 1979 Roger Staubach Cowboys #10 round pick 1964 (also picked in AFL 12th round by Chiefs) Would have been much higher pick except for 5 year military commitment. Bart Starr Packers #17th round pick 1956 (5 NFL titles later might make this the best value pick in history) Y.A. Tittle Lions #1 round pick 1948, never played for Lions, opted to go to AAFC 49ers instead. Bob Waterfield Rams #5 round pick 1944 Dan Marino Dolphins #1 round pick 1983 Sonny Jurgenson Eagles #4 round pick 1957 Terry Bradshaw Steelers #1 overall pick of 1970 draft John Elway Colts #1 overall pick of 1983 draft. Never played for Colts, traded to Denver Otto Graham Lions #1 round pick of 1944. Never played for Lions. Chose military and AAFC Browns to play Steve Young Buccaneers #1 round pick 1984. But played in USFL initially before coming back to Bucs, then traded to 49ers Joe Namath Jets #1 round pick AFL 1964 draft. Also selected in NFL first round by Cardinals. Chose Jets. Warren Moon Undrafted. Played 5 years in CFL before coming as Free Agent to NFL Oilers Fran Tarkenton Vikings #3 round pick 1961 Troy Aikman Cowboys #1 overall pick of 1989 draft Jim Kelly Bills #1 round pick 1983. But played USFL initially before coming back to Bills Norm Van Brocklin #4 round pick of Rams in 1949 draft So, note that of these 21 HOFers 11 were first round picks. Five came between rounds 2 to 5. Only 3 were drafted below the 5th round, and one of those has to have an asterisk because if Staubach had been available right away, it is almost certain he would have been a very high first round pick. Only Unitas and Starr were amazing surprises. And Moon was completely ignored for a long time. Other factors (perhaps racial issues?) may have been at play there. Of future certain HOFers, Brady and Kurt Warner could fall into the the "major surprise" category. A few for sures, like Peyton Manning, Favre, were fairly high round picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballpeen Posted November 12, 2009 Report Share Posted November 12, 2009 So, only 21 HOFers out of the thousands who were going to be HOF qb,s... I think luck plays as big a part as any other factor...that or just keep drafting QBs and allow odds to work in your favor.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted November 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2009 So, only 21 HOFers out of the thousands who were going to be HOF qb,s... I think luck plays as big a part as any other factor...that or just keep drafting QBs and allow odds to work in your favor.. Well, as noted, over 52.4% were first round picks, and that would have been higher but for Staubach's military thing. So, maybe going QB in the first round IS the way to go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkandstoopid Posted November 12, 2009 Report Share Posted November 12, 2009 Well, as noted, over 52.4% were first round picks, and that would have been higher but for Staubach's military thing. So, maybe going QB in the first round IS the way to go? What it all boils down to is..since 1944 the first round has only produced 11 HOFs, with maybe a couple more in the pipe. Hardly a sure thing. 52% is little better than a coin flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zombo Posted November 12, 2009 Report Share Posted November 12, 2009 What it all boils down to is..since 1944 the first round has only produced 11 HOFs, with maybe a couple more in the pipe. Hardly a sure thing. 52% is little better than a coin flip. Yeah, you need to get lucky. We've drafted two QBs in the first round in the past ten years and, while Quinn's book is still open, they look like two big misses. We've also drafted Two Centers, Faine and Mack DE Brown DT Warren RB Green C Faine TE Winslow WR Edwards LB Wimbley T Joe Thomas I'd say the only one with possible HOF aspirations is Thomas, but he is a long, long way away. Winslow and Edwards made the Pro Bowl. Faine has had a seviceable career, Warren has disappointed but stayed in the league, Wimbley has disappointed, Couch disappointed, Brown and Green were out of the league relatively quickly. I guess if you draft poorly it doesn't matter what position you draft. But if you draft well ... and you hit on a QB ... it could mean Super Bowls if you surround with with the right team. I think you keep looking in the first round until/unless you have a solid starter. Steelers, Ravens and Bengals all found theirs in the first round ... and if you get damn lucky, the guy stays healthy, and the rest of the team plays very very well ... you can get a HOFer. Zombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted November 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2009 What it all boils down to is..since 1944 the first round has only produced 11 HOFs, with maybe a couple more in the pipe. Hardly a sure thing. 52% is little better than a coin flip. OK, but rounds 1-100 or however many there may have been have only produced 9 HOF QBs. And one guy was never drafted at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballpeen Posted November 12, 2009 Report Share Posted November 12, 2009 Well, as noted, over 52.4% were first round picks, and that would have been higher but for Staubach's military thing. So, maybe going QB in the first round IS the way to go? Sure...I agree with that....it's total luck after round 1. I don't see it this year...I don't think any are all that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaak Posted November 12, 2009 Report Share Posted November 12, 2009 Sure...I agree with that....it's total luck after round 1. I don't see it this year...I don't think any are all that good. Its also total luck in Round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DawgTracker Posted November 12, 2009 Report Share Posted November 12, 2009 I don't think it is all luck. Arm strength, accuracy, personality type, mental toughness, previous experience, how did a player perform in their biggest and toughest games of the season. All of these factor into the odds of a QB succeeding. There are some people with a history of picking good QBs If you have done your homework and believe that a future all pro QB is in your sights you take him unless you already have a young all pro QB. Let's hope Brady makes us forget all of this conversation in the next two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sez.EJ Posted November 13, 2009 Report Share Posted November 13, 2009 Where IS the best place to find a true Hall of Famer at the QB position? Canton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flipflop Posted November 13, 2009 Report Share Posted November 13, 2009 What if you draft a potential HOFer in Cleveland but he leaves after his rookie contract is up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkandstoopid Posted November 13, 2009 Report Share Posted November 13, 2009 OK, but rounds 1-100 or however many there may have been have only produced 9 HOF QBs. And one guy was never drafted at all! So you want to put all your money on a QB in round one based on some small percentage of a percent chance that he'll eventually become a Hall of Famer? This team has lots of needs. If for some reason there is a QB out there that is more superior at that position than any player available at another position we need help at, then pick him... but if you need another position and there's a clearly outstanding individual at that position you've got to go for it. You need a good team to make a QB look great. A great QB playing on a crap team isn't going to look so hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoorta Posted November 13, 2009 Report Share Posted November 13, 2009 I don't think it is all luck. Arm strength, accuracy, personality type, mental toughness, previous experience, how did a player perform in their biggest and toughest games of the season. All of these factor into the odds of a QB succeeding. There are some people with a history of picking good QBs If you have done your homework and believe that a future all pro QB is in your sights you take him unless you already have a young all pro QB. Let's hope Brady makes us forget all of this conversation in the next two months. Well, you can have a future HOFer right under your nose, and not recognize it. Dawson and Unitas got cut- think Atlanta is kicking themselves in the a** for trading Farve? Let's lower our sights for a minute- I'll settle for a real franchise qb- and the current crop has a disproportionate share of first rounders. Yeah, it is luck to an extent- Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf? '99 Couch, McNabb, or Akilli Smith? The Eagles got lucky- I thought Couch was the safe pick, and I still remember the Eagles fans booing McNabb off the stage when his name got called. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballpeen Posted November 13, 2009 Report Share Posted November 13, 2009 Its also total luck in Round 1 I almost said that as well. But...every once in a while it isn't so much luck to pick a great player...I do suppose the luck comes in that you are the team in position to draft the guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted November 13, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2009 Sure...I agree with that....it's total luck after round 1. I don't see it this year...I don't think any are all that good. And I completely agree with you. (and we have our round 1 QB on the roster: Quinn. Ergo, the odds say that as a #1 round pick, he has a higher chance to become a Hall of Famer than the other QBs on the roster!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted November 13, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2009 So you want to put all your money on a QB in round one based on some small percentage of a percent chance that he'll eventually become a Hall of Famer? This team has lots of needs. If for some reason there is a QB out there that is more superior at that position than any player available at another position we need help at, then pick him... but if you need another position and there's a clearly outstanding individual at that position you've got to go for it. You need a good team to make a QB look great. A great QB playing on a crap team isn't going to look so hot. Again, I don't disagree with you at all. I was merely pointing out that more HOF QBs were obtained via a first round pick than in any other round. And there have only been 11 of those, so even the chances of drafting a QB in the first round that will make the HOF is still miniscule. Of the sure fire future HOF QBs, you have Manning 1st round, Favre 2d rounder, Brady 6th rounder. If Kurt Warner makes it he will be of the Warren Moon variety: never even drafted. Who else is a possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted November 13, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2009 Well, you can have a future HOFer right under your nose, and not recognize it. Dawson and Unitas got cut- think Atlanta is kicking themselves in the a** for trading Farve? Let's lower our sights for a minute- I'll settle for a real franchise qb- and the current crop has a disproportionate share of first rounders. Yeah, it is luck to an extent- Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf? '99 Couch, McNabb, or Akilli Smith? The Eagles got lucky- I thought Couch was the safe pick, and I still remember the Eagles fans booing McNabb off the stage when his name got called. And I have always contended that if Couch had been picked by the Eagles, and McNabb by the Browns, it would have been McNabb who would have struggled and Couch who would have thrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted November 13, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2009 By the way: Does anyone think Vinny Testaverde could one day be placed in the HOF? His career numbers are surprising: 7th all time in total yards and completions. 6th all time in attempts. 8th all time in TD passes. Vote, yea, or nay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosar_For_President Posted November 13, 2009 Report Share Posted November 13, 2009 By the way: Does anyone think Vinny Testaverde could one day be placed in the HOF? His career numbers are surprising: 7th all time in total yards and completions. 6th all time in attempts. 8th all time in TD passes. Vote, yea, or nay. And 267 INT's no way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Earl34 Posted November 13, 2009 Report Share Posted November 13, 2009 And 267 INT's no way Unless we use the "Joe Namath Scoring System" (I mean for HOF, not Suzi Kolber). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted November 13, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2009 To answer your question...."Where do you get a HOF QB"? Miami of Ohio Well, you certainly get a HOF coach from there: Woody Hayes, Bo Schembechler, Paul Brown, Ara Parseghian., Weeb Ewbank. Also FYI, Walter Alston, HOF baseball manager Don't know about QBs. None are in there from that school. It is way too premature to speculate on that respecting any current player. In regard to those 21 "modern" QBs that are in, here are their schools: Alabama: Namath, Starr BYU: Young Duke: Jurgenson Georgia: Tarkenton Kentucky: Blanda LSU: Tittle La. Tech: Bradshaw Louisville: Unitas Miami, Fla: Kelly Navy: Staubach Northwestern: Graham Notre Dame: Montana Oregon: Fouts, Van Brocklin Pitt: Marino Purdue: Griese, Dawson Stanford: Elway Texas: Layne UCLA: Waterfield, Aikman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoot Posted November 13, 2009 Report Share Posted November 13, 2009 By the way: Does anyone think Vinny Testaverde could one day be placed in the HOF? His career numbers are surprising: 7th all time in total yards and completions. 6th all time in attempts. 8th all time in TD passes. Vote, yea, or nay. This is mostly because he played for 21 years.... he had a couple good seasons but for the most part he was either mediocre or an interception factory. I vote nay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sez.EJ Posted November 14, 2009 Report Share Posted November 14, 2009 So you want to put all your money on a QB in round one based on some small percentage of a percent chance that he'll eventually become a Hall of Famer? This team has lots of needs. If for some reason there is a QB out there that is more superior at that position than any player available at another position we need help at, then pick him... but if you need another position and there's a clearly outstanding individual at that position you've got to go for it. You need a good team to make a QB look great. A great QB playing on a crap team isn't going to look so hot. RIght on the money..Poster boy for this.. Archie Manning.. great qb..crap team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReginaBrownsFan Posted November 14, 2009 Report Share Posted November 14, 2009 I think you have to pick the best player available at your pick regardless of position. To me that is the safest way to get a HOFer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoorta Posted November 14, 2009 Report Share Posted November 14, 2009 By the way: Does anyone think Vinny Testaverde could one day be placed in the HOF? His career numbers are surprising: 7th all time in total yards and completions. 6th all time in attempts. 8th all time in TD passes. Vote, yea, or nay. Vinny? Not as much of a slam dunk nope when I looked at the records, but nope, don't belong. the Seniors committee may get him in way in the future. 8th all time in TD passes, and about 4th all time in interceptions- that's what's going to kill him in HOF voting, that, and no Super Bowl appearances or wins. His suckatonic resume from Tampa will also seriously detract. Interceptions are a funny thing- Farve ( a lead pipe lock first ballot HOFer) leads the parade in that regard, but he has a career passer rating of 85- to Vinny's 75- 75 screams M-E-D-I-O-C-R-E. FWIW, George Blanda and Fran Tarkenton are way up there in career ints, . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest berniesipe Posted November 14, 2009 Report Share Posted November 14, 2009 Miami of Ohio , 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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