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Keith Law's top prospects


CIMO.

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With LaPorta ineligible, it's pretty thin at the top for us. But even after killing Shapiro and co. for the Lee/Martinez deals, KLaw is still pretty kind to the Tribe.

 

Organizational rankings...

 

4. Cleveland Indians

They continue to build depth without a ton of impact prospects, although Carlos Santana and Lonnie Chisenhall are exceptions to that rule, and they have a handful of low-A/short-season guys who could break away from the pack. There's still value in a system that can keep pumping out average or fringe-average big leaguers, simply because it keeps you away from the Jason Kendalls of the free-agent market.

Top 10 by organization...

 

Cleveland Indians

1. Carlos Santana, C

2. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B

3. Hector Rondon, RHP

4. Michael Brantley, CF

5. Nick Hagadone, LHP

6. Abner Abreu, RF

7. Alex White, RHP

8. Nick Weglarz, LF

9. Jason Knapp, RHP

10. T.J. House, LHP

Top 100 overall

 

3. Carlos Santana

Santana could be the Victor Martinez who can actually catch -- a switch-hitter with legitimate plate discipline and power with good receiving skills and an above-average arm. Cleveland swiped Santana from the Dodgers in the Casey Blake deal because they were willing to send L.A. the $2 million required to pay Blake's salary the rest of the way; in other words, they paid roughly what the ninth or 10th pick in a typical Rule 4 draft gets and ended up with the third-best prospect in baseball, a return on investment that Indians GM Mark Shapiro probably would take eight days a week. At the plate, Santana does start his hands a little deep, but he uses that to create great leverage in his swing as he explodes from his loaded position to the ball, with both hard contact and good loft when he squares a pitch up -- something he does quite often with an approach one Cleveland executive called "selective-aggressive," meaning Santana works the count but is more than happy to jump on a pitch he can hit early in an at-bat. He's a good athlete and runs well for a backstop. Santana has good hands behind the plate and arm strength, and he has shown progress in the one deficiency in his catching, his ability to handle a staff and work with pitchers. Lou Marson might be the starting catcher this April in Cleveland, but the job should be Santana's by September.

 

26. Lonnie Chisenhall

Chisenhall has one of the best swings in the minors, a classic left-hander's swing with good hip rotation and raw power to right and right-center, which was already on display in the 22 home runs he hit between high-A and Double-A in 2009. He played the entire year at the age of 20 and showed the ability to make contact and control the bat in and around the zone, while his walk rate, through not great, was adequate and also reflected the ease with which he makes contact. A miscast shortstop in college, Chisenhall has settled in at third base and made his body leaner, giving him a good chance to stay at the position and even end up a little above-average there. Chisenhall's history, for those who don't know it, includes expulsion from South Carolina for his involvement in a burglary, for which he pleaded guilty and received probation, but he's kept his nose clean since signing with Cleveland and looks like he'll move up the ladder quickly.

 

51. Hector Rondon

Rondon arrived on the scene at the 2008 Futures Game and followed up that strong season with an even better one despite two promotions that brought him to the cusp of the big leagues. He won't turn 22 for another month, but he has already shown an unusual ability (for someone so young) to pitch with his fastball, commanding it in and around the zone; it's 91-94 mph with great life. His best off-speed pitch is his changeup, above-average at times at 83-84 with good action and arm speed. He's still working on his slider, which remains inconsistent and often has an early break. His control is superb -- he's walked 101 in 480 pro innings, and just 29 in a full minor league season in 2009. He's shown that even on nights when he doesn't have the consistent slider or his best changeup, he can pitch with his fastball. Pitchers without great breaking balls often have lower ceilings as starters, but Rondon's ability to throw strikes, soak up innings and command the fastball give him a chance to exceed that limitation.

 

71. Michael Brantley

Brantley has some of the best bat control of anyone on this list, with an improving eye at the plate and above-average speed that all plays up because of his feel for the game. He keeps his hands back incredibly well, letting the ball travel and then ripping the bat through the zone and showing the ability to shoot an outside pitch down the left field line. He can run but, more importantly, is a very high-percentage base stealer who reads pitchers well, stealing on over 81 percent of attempts in his minor league career. He's a good center fielder who could probably play center every day for a number of teams, but won't get that chance in Cleveland unless Grady Sizemore gets hurt again. Brantley's main liability is lack of power, which may limit his ability to play in an outfield corner unless he hits and reaches base at the top end of his abilities -- which he might very well do given his instincts and ability to square up so many pitches.

 

100. Nick Hagadone

Hagadone had an eventful year in 2009, coming back from Tommy John surgery only to find himself traded 25 innings into his return in the Victor Martinez deal. He has an electric arm, sitting in the mid-90s and touching the upper 90s with good life, and his slider is above-average to plus. Left-handed hitters are just 12-for-71 off Hagadone in pro ball, with no extra-base hits, and he's been a strong ground-ball pitcher across his three partial seasons in the minors. He drops in the rankings from last year because the probability of him holding up as a starter seems a lot lower now than it did last year, when he was still recovering from the surgery and we could talk about best-case scenarios for the recovery. In relief, however, a lefty with two plus pitches and a usable changeup is a potentially dominant weapon in any inning because of his ability to miss left-handed bats without a major platoon split.

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With LaPorta ineligible, it's pretty thin at the top for us. But even after killing Shapiro and co. for the Lee/Martinez deals, KLaw is still pretty kind to the Tribe.

 

Organizational rankings...

 

 

Top 10 by organization...

 

 

Top 100 overall

 

 

I hope to god we can compete this year.

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Thanks for starting this CIMO. I had bookmarked a bunch of stuff over the last few weeks and just never got the chance get over here.

 

Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com put together his top 50 list a a couple of days back. Two guys made the cut, Santana at 11 and Brantley at 46:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20...sp&c_id=mlb

 

Good chance this isn't new, but BA came out with their organizational top 10/tools list a few weeks ago. Scott Leo, Clippers broadcaster, posted it on his MLB page:

 

Baseball America has released its' 2010 Indians top prospects and awards lists. Enjoy!

 

Top Ten Prospects

1. Carlos Santana, C

2. Lonnie Chisenhall, SS

3. Nick Hagadone, LHP

4. Jason Knapp, RHP

5. Michael Brantley, OF

6. Nick Weglarz, OF

7. Hector Rondon, RHP

8. Carlos Carrasco, RHP

9. Alex White, RHP

10. Jason Kipnis 2B/OF

 

Best Tools

Best Hitter for Average: Michael Brantley

Best Power Hitter: Nick Weglarz

Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Carlos Santana

Fastest Baserunner: Delvi Cid

Best Athlete: Michael Brantley

Best Fastball: Nick Hagadone

Best Curveball: Alexander Perez

Best Slider: Nick Hagadone

Best Changeup: Carlos Carrasco

Best Control: Hector Rondon

Best Defensive Catcher: Carlos Santana

Best Defensive Infielder: Jason Donald

Best Infield Arm: Carlos Rivero

Best Defensive Outfielder: Jordan Henry

Best Outfield Arm: Matt Brown

 

http://clippers.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/...p_prospect.html

 

Beanpot

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BA also had an all-day chat today to go along with the release of their Prospect Handbook.

 

Haven't really dug in yet, but there was at least one Tribe-related question:

 

CJ (Chicago): What is your opinion of Conor Graham of the Indians?

 

John Manuel: Big body, big arm, fastball has at times sat 96-97 in shorter stints. He's intriguing as a starter as he'll lose velo but still can be pretty tough to hit on a downhill plane. He's at the back of a very deep Indians list. His slider can be pretty good when it's on. I don't know if he's athletic enough to hold up long-term as a starter but he has a chance to be an important reliever, as opposed to just an up-and-down sixth- or seventh-inning guy.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1264606592

 

Beanpot

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Just to go with the whole projection theme, a couple of respected sources have released their 2010 projected standings.

 

Baseball Prospectus has the Indians finishing 2010 with...77 wins. Good enough for 4th in the Central. Broken down, their projection system has the team finishing with a slash line of 262/344/414. Compared to the league, the BA is good for second to last, the OBP right about in the middle of the league and the slugging in a dog-fight with the Mariners for last. Obviously, given a suspect rotation, this is worst case kind of stuff. Frankly, winning 77 games with these projections and our current staff would be a welcome surprise.

 

Over at RLYW.com, the well respected SG (fukc I hate the Internet - the blog is good, the guy is really well respected in the community and I'm sure his bio is somewhere but I only know him as SG) has the Indians finishing third. Take that BP, you soulless bastards. He has us closer to 5th than 1st, but it's at least something.

 

Here are the links, just so we can go all Truman over 'em when we're tipping over cars in the Fall:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/01/extremely...-projected.html

 

Beanpot

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Not projections so much, but TSN polled GM's and asked them to rank current players in several categories. Fun stuff:

 

Baseball superlatives: GMs rank the best in the game

By Unknown

Created 01/23/2010 - 13:13

Sporting News

Sporting News asked ... and 22 of baseball's general managers and assistant general managers answered. The latest issue of Sporting News magazine [1] -- on newsstands now -- features their answers to 19 questions that will keep you busy until spring training.

 

A sampling of the surveys:

 

Player I'd want on my team if I could swing it

 

The choice: ALBERT PUJOLS, 1B, Cardinals

 

SN turned to three Hall of Fame sluggers for an assessment of Pujols' greatness as a hitter.

 

RALPH KINER

"He is a Joe DiMaggio type in that he puts the ball in play. For example, compare him to the first baseman for the Phillies (Ryan Howard) -- he strikes out 200 times, and that doesn't help the ballclub any at all. In this case, he puts the ball in play, he hits the ball, and he can hit the ball to right field, to center field. He's a throwback to the old-fashioned kind of baseball player that everyone would like and should like."

 

AL KALINE

"He doesn't have any real weakness. He uses the whole field. He has a very good strike zone. When you combine all those things plus having the great bat speed and the strength that he has, it makes him a complete hitter. It's amazing that he hits as well as he does, not being what you would call a great speed runner."

 

GARY CARTER

"With his swing, there's not much movement with his body, no stride, and he's just very strong. The kind of numbers he's put up are just unbelievable -- as far as I'm concerned, Hall of Fame numbers. If he just continues at the pace he's on, he's probably going to be one of the greatest, if not the greatest, of all time at his position."

 

-- By Ken Bradley

 

THE BALLOT BOX

Who the 22 GMs and assistant GMs selected

Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals: 9 1/2 votes

Joe Mauer, C, Twins: 8 1/2

Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins: 2

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies: 1

Justin Upton RF, Diamondbacks: 1

 

Best leader

 

The choice: DEREK JETER, SS, Yankees

 

SN asked three former Yankees managers: Did you have a Derek Jeter-like leader on your Yankees teams, and how much easier does that make a manager's job when you do?

 

BILL VIRDON (1974-75)

YES -- Thurman Munson

"He was just a strong individual, knew what was going on. He was a fine catcher and a fine hitter and a good leader, always tough and ready to go. Thurman wasn't real vocal, but if he needed to be he was. That can make things easier for a manager. It depends on how much common sense (leaders) have, picking the right times and right guys."

 

BUCKY DENT (1989-90)

YES -- Don Mattingly

"I played with Thurman, and he was a different kind of a captain than Mattingly was. Thurman was a fiery-type guy. Donnie was a little more quiet, kind of like Jeter. Those three guys, as far as playing the game, are all the same. There are certain things they command in a clubhouse about the way you go about your business, and it takes a lot of pressure off the manager. How are you going to say anything about the way Jeter plays? He plays hard, he plays hurt, he conducts himself in a professional manner all the time. Same thing with Mattingly; he was the same kind of guy."

 

BUCK SHOWALTER (1992-95)

YES -- Don Mattingly

"We brought Derek up in September (1995) and kept him with us during the playoffs. Through that time, Derek watched Mattingly, how he handled himself. You know, Donnie was not a good quote, but, I tell you what, when the doors closed and ... he did speak, everybody stopped and said, 'Hold on, Donnie's got something he wants to talk about here.' Leaders realize the weight their words carry, and they're careful about it. Just because he's not out there publicly doesn't mean he's not saying things behind the scenes that are very important to the success of that club. If it gets to your plate as a manager and you have to assume that role, you've got a problem in your clubhouse."

 

-- By Bob Hille

 

THE BALLOT BOX

Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees: 13 votes

Torii Hunter, CF, Angels: 3

Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals: 3

Chase Utley, 2B Phillies: 1 1/2

Victor Martinez, C, Red Sox: 1

Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies: 1/2

 

Best stuff

 

The choice: FELIX HERNANDEZ, SP, Mariners

 

Mariners closer David Aardsma enjoys watching teammate Felix Hernandez baffle hitters with a repertoire that includes a four-seam and two-seam fastball, a curve, a slider and a changeup. The only catch? "You can't copy anything he does because you have nothing like he has," Aardsma says.

 

Aardsma shares with SN what makes the 19-game-winning righthander so superior:

 

Fastball. "When he's really feeling good, you see him hitting 97 mph. He's consistently in the mid-90s. He also uses his two-seamer well, and he throws that 94. Hitters can know it's coming and still not hit it."

 

Location. "One thing that sets him apart from power pitchers is he throws strikes. He throws at the knees so much that even when watching his bullpen (sessions), it becomes a running joke that he can't throw a ball high even if he tries."

 

Maturation. "(Manager) Don Wakamatsu and (pitching coach) Rick Adair put the pressure on him last spring training, telling him that we were going nowhere without him. He stepped up. He's been in the league so long you assume he's 28, 29. But he's 23. He's going to have six years in by the time he's 25."

 

-- By Stan McNeal

 

THE BALLOT BOX

Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners: 9 1/2 votes

Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants: 6

Zack Greinke, SP, Royals: 4

Chris Carpenter, SP, Cardinals: 1

Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies: 1

Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers: 1/2

 

Best swing

 

The choice: JOE MAUER, C, Twins

 

What's it like to be the hitting coach for Joe Mauer, owner of the majors' sweetest swing and best batting average (.336) over the past four seasons? No one knows better than Joe Vavra, whose first season in that role with the Twins was 2006, the year Mauer won his first of three A.L. batting titles. Vavra explains to SN how Mauer makes his job simple:

 

We don't talk much about mechanics because there's no need to. Mostly, we talk about plan of attack. His swing is pretty natural. Since I've been around him, he hasn't changed anything other than a little about his routine before walking up to the plate. He keeps everything simple.

 

As for last season's increase in home runs (from nine in 2008 to 28 in '09), first of all, he was healthy. There was a little more shortness to his swing, a more direct path to the ball. He eliminated some of the extra at the top of his approach.

 

He has the complete package: mind, body, hand-eye coordination. The rest is confidence. Catchingwise, he's setting a new bar offensively, but he's not satisfied. He wants to move beyond his goals. Would he say that? Probably not. He doesn't say much about goals. That's the humble, professional approach he has. In this day and age, it's an honor and kind of a privilege to be around an incredible talent who doesn't have to self-indulge himself.

 

-- As told to Stan McNeal

 

THE BALLOT BOX

Joe Mauer, C, Twins: 12 1/2 votes

Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals: 5 1/2

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Padres: 1

Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves: 1

Manny Ramirez, LF, Dodgers: 1

Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies: 1

 

Best outfield arm AND best leadoff hitter

 

The choice: ICHIRO SUZUKI, RF, Mariners

 

Nine 200-hit seasons. Nine Gold Gloves. Nine All-Star selections.

 

If Ichiro played in pinstripes, chances are he'd have a borough named after him by now.

 

His .333 average in nine seasons atop Seattle's lineup ranks 28th all-time -- better than Joe DiMaggio and Stan Musial. His 262 hits in 2004 are a single-season MLB record. Only six outfielders have bagged more Gold Gloves.

 

For more on the 36-year-old speedster, SN turned to Mike Hargrove, Ichiro's Mariners manager in 2005, '06 and half of '07.

 

SN: What makes him such a great leadoff hitter?

HARGROVE: He's not a prototypical leadoff hitter. He swings at a lot of pitches, and sometimes they're not strikes. He swings at pitches he thinks he can handle. He's fast, and he puts the ball in play. That makes up for the fact that he doesn't draw a lot of walks. He still has a good on-base percentage and scores a lot of runs. In that regard, he's as good as there is.

 

SN: What's so special about his throwing?

HARGROVE: At one time, his arm was probably as good as anybody who ever played the game. He still has as good an arm in right field as anybody in the game; he's just not 21 years old anymore. On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being a perfect cannon, he had a 9, and now he has an 8-plus so there's not much difference. It's just a natural progression of age. He has above-average accuracy and is very fundamentally sound when he throws.

 

SN: What's his No. 1 strength as a player?

HARGROVE: He has incredible hand-eye coordination. That's what allows him to hit pitches as he's heading toward first. He usually does that on pitches down and away. Rod Carew could do that, too, not necessarily the same way.

 

SN: What about speed?

HARGROVE: I've seen him hit two-hoppers to the shortstop playing back and beat them out. Defenses usually come up on the corners and the shortstop shallows up to try to neutralize his speed, but that ends up opening a lot of spots on the field for him.

 

SN: Would he be better suited for the three-hole?

HARGROVE: He has the kind of ability to hit anywhere in the lineup. I toyed with the idea of hitting him third because he's such a productive hitter. But to move him out of the leadoff spot, you have to have someone who can do as well or better than him. I think the two most important spots are the one-hitter and the four-hitter, so Ichiro is hitting where he should -- in the leadoff spot.

 

SN: Could he hit for power?

HARGROVE: You watch him take batting practice and he hits them as far as you'll ever want to see a ball hit. He tries to hit everything out of the park when he's taking batting practice.

 

SN: How does he do that at 5-9, 160?

HARGROVE: Leverage. Hitting isn't all about strength. When he wants to pull the ball, he gets into good position where he can leverage the ball and get really good bat speed. You look at Ichiro with his shirt off and he doesn't look imposing, but look closer. He's toned, he's strong, he's very, very fit.

 

SN: Is he the best you've managed?

HARGROVE: If he's not, he's as good as any. You take some of the others -- Eddie Murray, Kenny Lofton, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez -- and they all have the things that make them great. ... Ichiro knows himself really well. He's so strong mentally that I don't think he even considers the fact that there's something he doesn't do well in the game. That's a great strength to have. The game will beat you down, and he doesn't allow that to happen.

 

-- By Stan McNeal

 

THE BALLOT BOX (outfield arm)

Ichiro Suzuki, RF, Mariners: 13 votes

Jeff Francoeur, RF, Mets: 4 1/2

Carlos Gonzalez, LF, Rockies: 1 1/2

Jose Guillen, RF, Royals: 1

Josh Hamilton, CF, Rangers: 1

Hunter Pence, RF, Astros: 1

 

THE BALLOT BOX (leadoff hitter)

Ichiro Suzuki, RF, Mariners: 11 votes

Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees: 4

Chone Figgins, 3B, Mariners: 3

Grady Sizemore, CF, Indians: 3

Brian Roberts, 2B, Orioles: 1

 

Best strategist

 

The choice: Tony La Russa, Cardinals

 

Tony La Russa studies the numbers as much as any manager, but his strategy is based on much more than the "book." Three men who've managed against him share what makes him the game's best strategist:

 

BUD BLACK

Padres manager

"Tony was very instrumental in the development of the bullpen and how it's used today. The media might overstate how many pitching changes he makes because we all do it now. But he was about the first to do that, and he's been doing it the longest. With the way he built his staff in Oakland, you could say he laid the initial groundwork for the modern-day bullpen."

 

PHIL GARNER

Former Astros, Brewers and Tigers manager

"He's consistent in whatever he does, and that includes the times when he doesn't go by the numbers. When I was with Milwaukee (in the A.L.) and he was in Oakland, we had Fernando Vina. For the years I had him, Vina (a lefthanded hitter) hit lefthanders better -- much better -- than he hit righthanders. But every situation when there was a move late, Tony still would bring in a lefthander to face Vina. Now, is bringing in a lefty to face a guy who hits a lot better against lefthanded pitchers going by the book? If you're playing the numbers, the book is supposed to be statistical numbers. The thing I would give Tony is he stayed with it. Maybe that's the beauty of Tony. By playing it the same way every time, his player knew in that situation he would be coming in. Tony was being consistent in how he used his players, and there's something to be said for that."

 

JIM RIGGLEMAN

Nationals manager

"He's thoroughly prepared. He has all of his information, but he's also not afraid to manage by his gut or by emotion, either his or the emotion of the player he's making a decision about. If that guy isn't the best matchup (statwise), Tony might feel he's the most driven to succeed in that situation. He is unpredictable to manage against. How many managers would hit the pitcher eighth, or how many would have Albert Pujols at the plate and use him in a hit-and-run? Tony has been very successful at both of those many times."

 

-- By Stan McNeal

 

THE BALLOT BOX

Tony La Russa, Cardinals 14 votes

Mike Scioscia, Angels 5

Bruce Bochy, Padres 1

Bobby Cox, Braves 1

Joe Maddon, Rays 1

 

Most overrated player

 

The choices: Alfonso Soriano, LF, Cubs; Jason Varitek, C, Red Sox

 

Who's more overrated of the top two vote-getters? SN went to three major league scouts to break the tie.

 

N.L. scout: "It's Soriano because Varitek isn't overrated. Varitek is strictly on a steep decline in his career because of physical reasons. Soriano's skills, well, he should not have declined as quickly as he did. Varitek has declined because of injuries; Soriano has declined for other reasons."

 

A.L. scout: "Varitek plays a premium position, so he's going to always have a little more value to his club because of Soriano's defensive liabilities. There's a shortage of talent at the catcher's position, which you see with the older players out there getting jobs. Soriano is offensive and a middle-of-the-order bat, but really is a defensive liability out in the field. Of those two, Soriano would be my choice."

 

N.L. scout: "Overrated? I wouldn't say either one of them is. Soriano has just had chronic hamstring and other injury issues, but you talk about unbelievable bat speed and tools. His defensive ability has been lacking the past few years. Varitek knows how to call a game, but he's just lost a little bat speed. He's caught a lot of games."

 

-- By Ryan Fagan

 

THE BALLOT BOX

Alfonso Soriano, LF, Cubs: 3 votes

Jason Varitek, C, Red Sox: 3

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox: 2

Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Mets: 2

Erik Bedard, SP, free agent: 1

Milton Bradley, LF, Mariners: 1

A.J. Burnett, SP, Yankees: 1

Jacoby Ellsbury, LF, Red Sox: 1

Vladimir Guerrero, DH, Rangers: 1

Cristian Guzman, SS/2B, Nationals: 1

Matt Holliday, LF, Cardinals: 1

Manny Ramirez, LF, Dodgers: 1

Freddy Sanchez, 2B, Giants: 1

Miguel Tejada, SS, Orioles: 1

Vernon Wells, CF, Blue Jays: 1

Carlos Zambrano, SP, Cubs: 1

 

This story first appeared in the January 18 edition of Sporting News magazine. If you are not receiving the magazine, subscribe today [2], or pick up a copy, available at most Barnes & Noble, Borders and Hudson Retail outlets.

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/article/20...-rank-best-game

 

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What do you mean by "Laporta is ineligible"?

 

I think he means that since LaPorta has exceeded 130 MLB at-bats, he's no longer viewed as a rookie or a prospect. It's a rough qualifier that shouldn't at all take away from his potential, it's just a cut-off used by MLB that's also commonly used by people who take the time to put together prospect lists.

 

Beanpot

 

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I really could have worded that better. He's still a prospect - a damn promising one - but many people who put together these lists only consider qualified rookies. LaPorta is no longer that, according to the qualifications. Doesn't make him any less of a prospect or a part of the future.

 

Beanpot

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Great stuff Bean.

 

CJ (Chicago): What is your opinion of Conor Graham of the Indians?

 

John Manuel: Big body, big arm, fastball has at times sat 96-97 in shorter stints. He's intriguing as a starter as he'll lose velo but still can be pretty tough to hit on a downhill plane. He's at the back of a very deep Indians list. His slider can be pretty good when it's on. I don't know if he's athletic enough to hold up long-term as a starter but he has a chance to be an important reliever, as opposed to just an up-and-down sixth- or seventh-inning guy.

Love it. I doubt most people will ever be satisfied with the Lee/Martinez/CC trades, but these deals Shapiro gets for average, "we don't need him anyway" guys is what makes him one of the better GMs. I already developed a serious man-crush for Chris Perez, I can't wait to see how these guys we got for Betancourt and Garko and such (plus Jess Todd) pan out.

 

Baseball Prospectus has the Indians finishing 2010 with...77 wins. Good enough for 4th in the Central. Broken down, their projection system has the team finishing with a slash line of 262/344/414. Compared to the league, the BA is good for second to last, the OBP right about in the middle of the league and the slugging in a dog-fight with the Mariners for last. Obviously, given a suspect rotation, this is worst case kind of stuff. Frankly, winning 77 games with these projections and our current staff would be a welcome surprise.

That I'm not buying. I can see that Victor leaving is gonna hurt and Asdrubal will probably regress some, but with Choo, a healthy(er) Hafner, a full year of Grady, and hopefully a full year of LaPorta, I can't see us being that much WORSE than last year, where we were still 11th in all of MLB in wOBA.

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