Teams in "Championship status"

[The Gipper]

In another thread the question came up as to when a team is ready for "Championship status". My contention was that the trend lately is that any team essentially approaching a .500 record could be considered ready for "championship status".

Here is the history however. Here are the Super Bowl winners for the last 20 years, and their records the prior year:

 

2009 Saints 2008 record: 8-8

2008 Steelers 2007 record: 10-6

2007 Giants 2006 record: 8-8

2006 Colts 2005 record: 14-2

2005 Steelers 2004 record: 15-1

2004 Pats 2003 record: 14-2

2003 Pats 2002 record: 9-7

2002 Bucs 2001 record: 9-7

2001 Pats 2000 record: 5-11

2000 Ravens 1999 record: 8-8

1999 Rams 1998 record: 4-12

1998 Broncos 1997 record: 12-4

1997 Broncos 1996 record: 13-3

1996 Packers 1995 record: 11-5

1995 Cowboys 1994 record: 12-4

1994 49ers 1993 record: 10-6

1993 Cowboys 1992 record: 13-3

1992 Cowboys 1991 record: 11-5

1991 Redskins 1990 record: 10-6

1990 Giants 1989 record: 12-4

 

I think the trend shows that in the 90s you really had to have had some sustained success with a good record the prior year to be considered to be "Championship ready". However, since 1999 that requirement is by no means the same.

Now, perhaps due to relaxed free agency, a team can apparently come from mediocrity, or worse, to a Championship.

Of the last 11 champions, 7 of them had records of 9-7 or worse the prior year.

Do you think that trend can continue?

I think at minimal you have to say that the teams that were 8-8 or 9-7 last year have almost as good a chance at becoming SB Champ in 2010 as the teams with better records. Thus the Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Titans, Broncos, 49ers Panthers, Falcons, and Giants, all 8-8 or 9-7 teams cannot be discounted as potential titlists, along with these teams that had a 106 or better record: Pats, Bengals, Colts, Charger, Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings, Packers, Saints, and Cardinals.

For the Browns sake, you have to hope that the miracle of the 1998 Rams or 2000 Pats is also a trend that remains possible. Teams with 4-12 and 5-11 records taking the title the next year. One can always hope.

[Erie Dawg]

Maybe it's safe to say that there are 3 or 4 really bad teams a year.

20 or so average teams.

And 6 or 8 above avg teams every year.

I'm not going to take the time and look into it too much but that sounds pretty logical to me as to why the stats read that way, its more or less better odds.

[The Gipper]

Maybe it's safe to say that there are 3 or 4 really bad teams a year.

20 or so average teams.

And 6 or 8 above avg teams every year.

I'm not going to take the time and look into it too much but that sounds pretty logical to me as to why the stats read that way, its more or less better odds.

 

 

Well, if it is the NFL's goal to achieve parity, I think the stats show that they have been pretty successful, if a team can go from 4-12 to SB Champ. That might have been a bit of an aberration, but it does not appear to be an aberration now to go from 8-8 to the title. Any fan of a team that was about .500 basically should keep hope alive that their team could win next year.

[next2nothing]

Well, if it is the NFL's goal to achieve parity, I think the stats show that they have been pretty successful, if a team can go from 4-12 to SB Champ. That might have been a bit of an aberration, but it does not appear to be an aberration now to go from 8-8 to the title. Any fan of a team that was about .500 basically should keep hope alive that their team could win next year.

Also add in the fact that most teams that go 8-8 were a few plays away from 9-7 or 10-6, it happens almost every year.

[Erie Dawg]

Gipp's

 

I went back through the last two years final standing and this is what I came up with

 

Teams with 11 or more wins per season. 16

 

Teams with 7-10 wins per season. 28

 

Teams with 6 wins or less per season. 20

 

And as you can see I even gave the avg teams a smaller sampling and if you want to give a win or a loss each way it would blow it that much more out of proportion.

So it’s just better odds none the less.

 

 

[mopaji]

I think this shows just how quickly your championship window closes. It takes a few years to build the team up, and then you have 2 or 3 years to cash it in before its done. The exception would be the team with Peyton Manning. Or *gulp* the Steelers who haven't had to rebuild for almost a decade. Good news is, now they have to. Its gonna be fun to watch!