Buyer beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

[calfoxwc]

Sat Apr 17, 2010 2:07 am EDT

 

Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks</H2>By Doug Farrar

 

When we talk about "risk" in the draft, what do we mean? If a team takes a flyer on a guy in the middle-to-late rounds - a spread-offense quarterback with little chance to make the pro transition, a receiver with demon speed and little else, a tackle on either side of the ball with great athleticism and iffy fundamentals, or a player at any position who's already been coached to his ceiling - well, the risk is negligible. Teams are playing dice with the universe after the first couple of rounds, and they know it. It's the picks early on that can come back and haunt a franchise for years if they're made without the proper scouting and background work. Here are 10 players with first- and second-round grades who also possess major risk factors that could make them either bargains or busts.

 

QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame: Of course, the big positive with Clausen is that he's pro-ready; his work with Charlie Weis presented him with the ability to get a head start on the intricacies of the pro game. He won't have to adjust too heavily when it comes to the verbiage of NFL play calls, and he's far more comfortable under center than any other highly-regarded quarterback in this class. However, the increase in the number of spread offenses over the last five years sometimes has NFL personnel men overrating the effects of pro-readiness, and not looking closely enough at the pure physical tools that certain coaching tactics may inflate beyond actual potential. Clausen still has many questions to answer at the next level, especially if a team overdrafts him hoping for a quick solution.

 

QB Tim Tebow, Florida: It's not the mechanics we're talking about here - it's common knowledge that Tebow will require at least a year of development before he's ready to remotely resemble an NFL quarterback. But that's the problem. If Tebow doesn't go to an NFL team with an established starting quarterback, every mistake made by the QBs in front of him will be amplified by a super-fawning media beyond anxious for him to get on the field so more quick stories can be written. Through no fault of his own, Tebow has the potential to rip a team apart.

 

RB Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech: On the surface, Dwyer seems like a dream for any team looking to add a power back to its roster - he accounted for identical 1,395-yard rushing seasons in 2008 and 2009, bulling his way through opposing lines at 5-foot-11 and 230 pounds. But when you look closer, there are concerns about Dwyer's ability to gain consistent yardage away from Paul Johnson's triple-option, not to mention his slow 40 times. Dwyer might be able to transcend schematic concerns, but those concerns are legitimate.

 

TE Jimmy Graham, Miami: From Tony Gonzalez(notes) to Antonio Gates(notes), NFL teams have looked to the basketball court to find tight ends. Gates has been San Diego's main playmaker for years despite the fact that he played no college football - his ridiculous athleticism and great potential for the pro game had teams falling all over him in private workouts. Graham shares a similar set of skills - he played mostly basketball for the Hurricanes, with just one season of football at the collegiate level. Still, his 4.5 speed at 6-foot-6 and 260 pounds will have teams looking to take him early in the second day. Living up to Gates and Gonzalez with minimal experience will be a challenge.

 

WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State: It's not about the 10-game suspension in 2009 - Bryant was unwise to lie about his friendship with Deion Sanders, but the hypocrisy of an organization that keeps its players under ridiculous financial constraints while raking in ungodly cash is a larger issue. Still, with all his talent, Bryant has been taken off several draft boards altogether because of maturity and work ethic questions. Risky stuff for a kid who could still go in the top 15.

 

OT Bruce Campbell, Maryland: Campbell might be the biggest workout warrior in this year's draft class; he's gone to the Raiders with the eighth overall pick in so many mock drafts, the joke isn't even funny anymore. As chiseled as any defensive end, Campbell has only 17 starts to fall back on at the college level, and the raw technique bleeds all over his game tape. He's got a lot of work to do before he's NFL-ready; the question is whether he'll put in the work and move past being just another big, fast guy.

 

DE Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida: Pierre-Paul's high draft stock is based entirely on the amazing speed off the snap that allows him to flash great potential as a pass-rusher. But with only one season out of the junior college ranks, Pierre-Paul's weak points are still glaringly obvious. He's a straight-ahead dasher only, still confused on most stunts, and he can be easily washed out against the run. Pierre-Paul may be the next <A href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/4664/" ywaOnclickOverride="true">Jevon Kearse(notes), but he's probably got more work to do to get there than most people think.

 

DE Carlos Dunlap, Florida: At 6-foot-6 and 280 pounds, and able to run a legit sub-4.7 40, Dunlap has the physical tools to dominate at any level. However, his tendency to rely too much on that size and not enough on technique may leave him ill-qualified to deal with NFL tackles who will be far less impressed with Dunlap's ability to lunge around a bad block. His DUI arrest four days before the SEC title game begs additional pause, and a harder look at the entire package.

 

DB Patrick Robinson, Florida State: Robinson's game tape can be maddening. One play will show him running with any receiver, utilizing his man-on-man speed to shut things down. Then, another will see him bail out of a zone, or slip a tackle. If he can develop consistency, Robinson can become a Pro Bowl defender. As it stands right now, he'll give his coaches an equal amount of agita for every bit of praise.

 

S Taylor Mays, USC: Another athletic wonder. It's not often you see a guy who can run 40s before 4-3 at 6-foot-3 and 230 pounds. The problem with Mays is those skills are often used in disorganized fashion. For all his straight-line speed, Mays struggles with coverage concepts. He's good in center field or close to the line, but the fifteen yards in between will decide his effectiveness at the next level.

 

Related: Antonio Gates, Jevon Kearse, Tony Gonzalez

 

[ballpeen]

Thanks, but I disagree on Tebow.....his teammates will love him.

 

 

 

 

He might flop, but he won't rip a locker room apart.

 

 

Tebow doesn't just talk the talk.....he walks the walk.

 

 

They may disagree with his religious slant, but in the end, he is as great a warrior any team can have.....and players respond to that.

[daddybull1]

I like Tebow a lot... First & foremost he's a winner and finds a way to get the job done.... Some players can be coached-up depending on the situation but the two things that can't be taught are speed and that ability to make the play when it counts the most.... Tebow's a playmaker..............

 

Peace

 

T.Dawg

[choco]

did you miss the part that said...."by no fault of his own"?

 

its eluding to another quinn/DA insanity debate where no one wins. put another way, the grass is always greener (till they actually get on teh field).

[Dawgstucknpa]

Thanks, but I disagree on Tebow.....his teammates will love him.

 

 

 

 

He might flop, but he won't rip a locker room apart.

 

 

Tebow doesn't just talk the talk.....he walks the walk.

 

 

They may disagree with his religious slant, but in the end, he is as great a warrior any team can have.....and players respond to that.

Totally agree.

 

If the only way I could take him was in the first round, then I would.

 

There is no replacement for character, drive, toughness and smarts.

[Mr. T]

Even if we dont draft a QB everyone will want to see what the guy on the bench can do. But this list may have sopmething to do with players character, I dont want us to draft a BR type of guy who will cotinually make the news for stupid shit.

[CLEVELandMILIDH]

here's a really interesting take on a few guys from Josh Mcdaniels. Im really liking what he says about McClain, even Bryant doesnt sound like that bad of an option

 

On Alabama LB Rolando McClain:

"I'm not sure I've met a young man as intelligent relative to the game of football than Rolando McClain. He's obviously been well coached but even if you're coached well, it takes another side to get to where he's at. He's obviously done a lot of listening, studying and understands the game at a level where most kids that come in as rookies will never be at. That's a credit to the work he's done at Alabama and the way he's been coached. He has a very bright future ahead of him."

 

On Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant:

"I think you need to be careful confusing character issues with some people who have made some mistakes. This guy has never been arrested, never had a drinking issue, never done anything to put himself in that position. I think he's made a few mistakes that he wishes he hadn't made but I think there's a difference. You can say, well, this guy has made a couple mistakes that have been really glorified, and make a big deal of it and all of a sudden turn him into a really bad kid. That's the farthest thing from the truth relative to (Bryant). We enjoyed our visit with him. He did everything we asked him to do. He had a smile on his face and he did everything well. I'll tell you this, he's on our board. There's no question. I know there are other teams that may have taken him off their board, but he is not one of the players who is off our board."

 

On Tennessee DL Dan Williams:

"The thing we think about Dan is that he's got what we would call a play radius that's a little different than some (nose tackles), meaning he can make tackles over there on the sideline. We've kind of gone back and forth on it -- (he) could even play (defensive) end because he's that athletic. We've done our work and our research on him, and he's a player that I think is going to go probably somewhere right around where we pick, there's no question about it. But we do have an interest in Dan Williams. He is a good player, he is a good kid and we think that that would be a possibility."

 

On Missouri LB Sean Weatherspoon:

"Sean Weatherspoon, the linebacker from Missouri, was very impressive. He's a bright kid. Every way -- name it and he was impressive. His knowledge of his system, his ability to retain our system, his interaction with our coaches. That was great."

 

On Florida QB Tim Tebow:

"Tebow, he's everything that you guys have ever read or written about a player like that. He was extremely impressive. You look at the tape, and the only thing that you can say about the tape that isn't flattering or very impressive is that he dips the ball a hair. He has already fixed that. I think that's something that you can fix through repetition. He's already done it, he proved that at his pro day. Everything else that you're watching on film is accurate, tough, smart, good leader, versatile, can move out of the pocket, can move in the pocket, can run with the ball. This guy scored. What is he, the third-leading passer all-time and the leading scorer in rushing touchdowns over Herschel (Walker). There are so many things that you can say about the kid. Then, to top that all off, he's every bit the person that you read about before you got the chance to meet him. He's very enthusiastic, wants to work hard, smart, bright, one of the smarter players I've ever been around in terms of coming out of college."

[calfoxwc]

I would draft Tebow in the late twenties and after... I think the kid could be great.

 

He keeps reminding me of Charlie Frye - Tebow has a stronger arm.

 

I don't diss a player for NOT being religious, etc, so it's hard to say that Tebow is a pain because

 

he is.

 

Seems like he was very popular with his teammates, and never held it against anybody if they believed differently.

 

If Tebow was there for the Browns in the second round, I'd do a happy dance when they draft him.

[miktoxic]

Even if we dont draft a QB everyone will want to see what the guy on the bench can do. But this list may have sopmething to do with players character.

 

right, but we don't want to draft someone above their projected value just because he has great 'character'. i've hated on tebow and mccoy in this whole pre-draft schmooz. i'm starting to take a shining to both. but pleeeeez enough with the love fest. didn't we have a quinn/andersen meltdown for the last couple of years? we know tebow is a great humanitarian and mccoy is a texan (nuff said) but these guys are just one of many that we need to fill the gaps in 'our' squad. don't break out your stuff and call in the measuring stick when you haven't had your ridilin yet..........those days are yet to come. IN HOLMGREN I TRUST!!!

 

[cdl15]

here's a really interesting take on a few guys from Josh Mcdaniels. Im really liking what he says about McClain, even Bryant doesnt sound like that bad of an option

 

On Alabama LB Rolando McClain:

"I'm not sure I've met a young man as intelligent relative to the game of football than Rolando McClain. He's obviously been well coached but even if you're coached well, it takes another side to get to where he's at. He's obviously done a lot of listening, studying and understands the game at a level where most kids that come in as rookies will never be at. That's a credit to the work he's done at Alabama and the way he's been coached. He has a very bright future ahead of him."

 

On Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant:

"I think you need to be careful confusing character issues with some people who have made some mistakes. This guy has never been arrested, never had a drinking issue, never done anything to put himself in that position. I think he's made a few mistakes that he wishes he hadn't made but I think there's a difference. You can say, well, this guy has made a couple mistakes that have been really glorified, and make a big deal of it and all of a sudden turn him into a really bad kid. That's the farthest thing from the truth relative to (Bryant). We enjoyed our visit with him. He did everything we asked him to do. He had a smile on his face and he did everything well. I'll tell you this, he's on our board. There's no question. I know there are other teams that may have taken him off their board, but he is not one of the players who is off our board."

 

On Tennessee DL Dan Williams:

"The thing we think about Dan is that he's got what we would call a play radius that's a little different than some (nose tackles), meaning he can make tackles over there on the sideline. We've kind of gone back and forth on it -- (he) could even play (defensive) end because he's that athletic. We've done our work and our research on him, and he's a player that I think is going to go probably somewhere right around where we pick, there's no question about it. But we do have an interest in Dan Williams. He is a good player, he is a good kid and we think that that would be a possibility."

 

On Missouri LB Sean Weatherspoon:

"Sean Weatherspoon, the linebacker from Missouri, was very impressive. He's a bright kid. Every way -- name it and he was impressive. His knowledge of his system, his ability to retain our system, his interaction with our coaches. That was great."

 

On Florida QB Tim Tebow:

"Tebow, he's everything that you guys have ever read or written about a player like that. He was extremely impressive. You look at the tape, and the only thing that you can say about the tape that isn't flattering or very impressive is that he dips the ball a hair. He has already fixed that. I think that's something that you can fix through repetition. He's already done it, he proved that at his pro day. Everything else that you're watching on film is accurate, tough, smart, good leader, versatile, can move out of the pocket, can move in the pocket, can run with the ball. This guy scored. What is he, the third-leading passer all-time and the leading scorer in rushing touchdowns over Herschel (Walker). There are so many things that you can say about the kid. Then, to top that all off, he's every bit the person that you read about before you got the chance to meet him. He's very enthusiastic, wants to work hard, smart, bright, one of the smarter players I've ever been around in terms of coming out of college."

Who the hell is Josh Daniels and what has he done in the Nfl that makes his word gold these are a few of the players that might be a little overhyped and worth to stay away from. in my opinion

[cribbs is the man]

Who the hell is Josh Daniels and what has he done in the Nfl that makes his word gold these are a few of the players that might be a little overhyped and worth to stay away from. in my opinion

Umm i think this is referring to Josh McDaniels, the head coach of the Broncos..

[CLEVELandMILIDH]

Who the hell is Josh Daniels and what has he done in the Nfl that makes his word gold these are a few of the players that might be a little overhyped and worth to stay away from. in my opinion

 

I didnt say his word was gold I said he had an interesting opinion. He's not the only one to say McClain is one of the smatest football players he's ever seen. And he had an interesting take on Bryant about never being arrested, no alcohol or drugs problems etc.

 

Oh yea who the hell is cdl15 and what has he done in the NFL for anybody to care about his opinion...........you aint gotta be a dick about it

[CLEVELandMILIDH]

Staying on the topic of risky players, im really warming up to Perrish Cox in the 3rd. He ran a slow 40 and was suspended in the Bowl game for violating curfew but watcing him play he looks like a 1st rd. talent.

 

Watch him againt A.J Green, one of the best WR's in college football, and he can contribute on ST. If he ran a better 40 and had no character concerns we might be talking about him being the 2nd corner taken in the draft. Going againt Dez Bryant in practice everyday isnt a bad thing either.

 

Also he has good size so he looks like he could be a good safety prospect if it dont work out at corner