2011: A hiring boom, even at 9% unemployment

[Kosar_For_President]

After three years of economic pain, a growing number of economists think 2011 will finally bring what everyone's been hoping for: More jobs and a self-sustaining recovery.

 

"We're looking at some leading indicators on employment, and they're all flashing green lights," said Bernard Baumohl of the Economic Outlook Group, a Princeton, N.J. research firm.

 

Though most economists still expect a painfully high unemployment rate of about 9% at the end of this year, some think that stat masks more important signs of strength.

 

Economists surveyed by CNNMoney are forecasting an average of 2.5 million jobs added to the U.S. economy this year, which would be the best one-year gain in hiring since the white-hot labor market of 1999.

 

Of the dozen economists who responded, several of the more bullish are predicting more than 3 million jobs added -- about 250,000 jobs a month. Even the most pessimistic of those surveyed, David Wyss of Standard & Poor's, expects 1.8 million jobs to be added this year, roughly double the pace of hiring in 2010.

 

That wouldn't be enough to climb out of the 8-million job crater created by the Great Recession and won't bring down the unemployment rate by a significant amount. An improved job market could even bring a short-term rise in the jobless rate, as those discouraged from job hunting resume looking for work and are once again counted as unemployed.

 

But the forecasted hiring boom could get the economy back into gear and provide real relief for many Americans.

 

Those projecting better hiring in 2011 point to a number of factors. Among them, job openings by employers rose 17% from June to October of last year, the most recent reading available from the Labor Department, and are up by about a third compared to a year earlier.

 

And there has been a downward trend in newly laid-off workers filing for initial jobless claims, which fell below 400,000 in the most recent reading for the first time since the summer of 2008. That might have been distorted by the holiday season and bad weather, but the four-week average is also at a two-plus year low.

 

On the business front, capital expenditures -- typically followed by expansion and hiring -- have been on the rise.

 

"Forecasters generally underestimate the strength of a recovery once it is underway," said Bill Cheney, chief economist for Manulife Asset Management. He's forecasting 2.5 million to 3 million new jobs this year.

 

"Once things get moving, they feed on themselves," he said. "There is so much pent-up demand. People have been frugal for three years. There will be a lot of new cars, a lot of new furniture, a lot of people moving out of their parents' basement."

 

A rebound in the creation of new jobs has the potential to help both the still struggling housing market and the economy as a whole. Many recent college grads or those who lost their homes or jobs have been stuck living with friends or family members. As they find work and move back out on their own, they'll have to spend.

 

About 3 million fewer jobs were added over the course of the past three years compared to the annual average of first eight years of the last decade.

 

"Jobs feed income and income feeds more consumer spending. Consumer spending hasn't come back in a meaningful way compared to other recoveries," said Brett Ryan, economist with Deutsche Bank. His firm forecasts consumer spending will finish 2010 up between 1.4% to 1.7% when the final numbers are in, but that will jump to more than 3% growth next year.

 

Baumohl says another non-traditional employment indicator, the number of day-care workers, has been edging up for four months and is now about 2% higher than a year ago. "People need more day care when they've got jobs to go to," he said.

[Westside Steve]

No shit.

 

It takes five guys to do the work it'd take 25 to do before and more stuff is produced.

Do the math.

WSS

[calfoxwc]

My belief is, it's the fact that Republicans forced the continuation of the Bush tax cuts for businesses.

 

But it's for two years. Companies will gear up for a year or two, but then they will worry those tax cuts will go away...

 

and we're back in trouble again. For now, it's good news.

 

I have to design a chicken coop today. @@ Chicken coops seem to be in demand now, too.

[heckofajobbrownie]

Let's hope they're right. Still a long way to go. Lots of possible setbacks, too. I wouldn't get too excited.

 

And Cal, I mean, come on.

[Kosar_For_President]

Companies will gear up for a year or two, but then they will worry those tax cuts will go away...

 

Cal that is not what created this in the first place, had nothing to do with tax cuts. Dude...

[heckofajobbrownie]

(Reuters) - The number of U.S. private-sector jobs surged in December at a rate three times stronger than forecast, a hiring report showed, the most bullish signal in months that a recovery in the world's biggest economy is shifting up a gear.

 

The ADP Employer Services private-sector jobs report logged its biggest-ever rise on Wednesday. It comes two days ahead of the U.S. government's closely watched and more comprehensive payrolls report for December, spurring many economists to raise their forecasts for that data.

 

...Private employers added a surprising 297,000 jobs last month, ADP said, up from a gain of 92,000 in November. It was the largest jump recorded by ADP, whose data goes back to 2000.

 

 

...This would be nice if it continues. Not going to lower the unemployment rate too much, though.

[Mr. T]

If politicians really wanted to solve this problem they should do the following;

 

First round up all of the illegal aliens and send them home.

 

Second repeal this hidious Obama Commi Care Mandate that is unconstitutional.

 

Third make the Bush Tax Cuts Permanent.

 

And we could go on, but this would be a good start.

 

Maybe after the top 3 are taken care of we could round up all progressive dems and export them to Cuba so everything will stay in tact.

[calfoxwc]

the affect of extending the tax cuts for ONLY two years, is a temporary boon to businesses. But after that, about 2012,

 

those businesses will scale back again. That means less employment, no more tax credit for R&D spending (including salaries

 

of employees).... The simple matter is, NOT EXTENDING the Bush tax cuts, AT THIS TIME, will be a bad thing for employment

 

by businesses.

 

Here:

*************************************

http://dailycaller.com/2010/09/22/over-300...erious-effects/

 

“Furthermore,” the letter reads, “businesses directly impacted by upper-bracket tax increases would slow their activities, thereby diminishing economic opportunities for their subcontractors in lower brackets.”

 

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2010/09/22/over-300.../#ixzz1AET7HBAu

 

 

[Westside Steve]

Ironically just as the rug is pulled out from under the 99ers....

WSS

[Westside Steve]

Welcme back Heck.

Vacation?

WSS

[calfoxwc]

This doesn't sound like "green lights" to me....

 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/145478/Gallup-F...t-December.aspx

[heckofajobbrownie]

Mostly work. Lots of travel. Lack of interest over the holidays.

 

And you're not suggesting that businesses hire employees because they're no longer on unemployment, are you? Or that they're now hiring people because those people are now looking for employment, whereas before they weren't?

 

Those aren't very likely scenarios. (It's also not an example of irony.) Businesses hire when it makes sense for them to hire - when they feel that they can benefit from the additional work because their product/service will sell more units and create more customers. Whether or not there are people on unemployment insurance does not affect that decision. Things like the overall economic climate and the purchasing power of consumers do. And those are slowly improving. It's got nothing to do with the fact that some people's unemployment insurance is running out.

 

After all of the stuff we talked about, you should be able to see the difference between making your argument - that unemployment insurance extensions causes more unemployment - in a time of full or near-full employment versus a time of 10% unemployment, and 16% underemployment, when there are far more job-seekers than jobs. And that doesn't even get into the macro arguments for UI extensions, which have to do with it being one of the most effective stimulus measures, as well as an automatic stablizer during the economic downturn.

 

Yes?

[Westside Steve]

Actually what I'm still saying is that no one in their right mind takes a shitty job until they have to.

 

Not me not you not Cal not T not anyone I know.

 

And (because of reasons I've listed before) there are less good jobs than job seekers.

 

Neither factor accounts for 100%.

 

But you guys pulled the plug on tier 5 anyway so don't get mad at me.

WSS

[Kosar_For_President]

Actually what I'm still saying is that no one in their right mind takes a shitty job until they have to.

 

Not me not you not Cal not T not anyone I know.

 

And (because of reasons I've listed before) there are less good jobs than job seekers.

 

Neither factor accounts for 100%.

 

But you guys pulled the plug on tier 5 anyway so......

WSS

 

It depends on your definition of a shitty job.

[Westside Steve]

It depends on your definition of a shitty job.

 

 

Uh one that you would find shitty and for less dough than the dole..

You're unemployed right?

If you have a choice of say 400 bucks a week on the dole or 200 a week in Popeye's kitchen...

 

If it's Popeyes or nothing it's a different choice.

 

 

WSS

[Kosar_For_President]

Uh one that you would find shitty and for less dough than the dole..

You're unemployed right?

If you have a choice of say 400 bucks a week on the dole or 200 a week in Popeye's kitchen...

 

If it's Popeyes or nothing it's a different choice.

 

 

WSS

 

Nope I found a good job when I moved from the shit hole called Cleveland. Sorry love the people, hate the town. If I had to work at Popeye's then so be it. Pull up your big boy pants and get to work. I was on the verge of taking a job at Mr. Hero until I found a semi-decent job in Cleveland.

 

Now on the Outer Banks, and loving it.

[Westside Steve]

Nope I found a good job when I moved from the shit hole called Cleveland. Sorry love the people, hate the town. If I had to work at Popeye's then so be it. Pull up your big boy pants and get to work. I was on the verge of taking a job at Mr. Hero until I found a semi-decent job in Cleveland.

 

Now on the Outer Banks, and loving it.

 

Were you self employed before? The web thing? If not had you spent any time on unemployment?

WSS

[heckofajobbrownie]

And we're back to where we started. Geez.

[Westside Steve]

And we're back to where we started. Geez.

 

 

That's right Heck.

Back to the facts at hand.

Sorry.

WSS

[heckofajobbrownie]

You think it's a really outstanding point that's worth repeating over and over. That's the problem. It isn't. You really shouldn't be so self-satisfied. It's just more goldfish.

 

BTW, the official job numbers were well below the private forecast, and more in line with what was originally expected. On with the slog.

 

Must be those Bush tax cuts.

[Kosar_For_President]

Were you self employed before? The web thing? If not had you spent any time on unemployment?

WSS

 

Nope, I did web work on my own time. Did web work as a job. People in Cleveland all want something for nothing. I was on unemployment exactly 6 months.

 

 

[Westside Steve]

You think it's a really outstanding point that's worth repeating over and over. That's the problem. It isn't. You really shouldn't be so self-satisfied. It's just more goldfish.

 

 

Actually Heck it's so obvious I'm surprised you waste so much time trying to deny it.

 

 

WSS

 

[heckofajobbrownie]

You keep bringing it up, I address it and move on, then you keep bringing it up, then I address it again and try to talk about something more relevant, and then you keep bringing it up. Honestly, you must have posted the same point at least ten times. Then you accuse me of wasting time by not admitting how brilliant it is. Which is kind of hard. Since it's not.

 

I don't know what to say to you anymore. You have one point on each topic, and once that's exhausted all you can do is repeat it, whether it's germane to the topic, or like in this case, barely germane. Goldfish. And when called out, you try to keep it alive any way you can.

 

Yes, congratulations, Steve. You've said that people will often take more money and leisure time over less money and work. (No shit?) Which I stipulated weeks ago, while telling you it's not really the point, and then moving on. Clearly, you're just returning to it because you have nothing else to add. I'm trying to get you to see that it's not the entirety of an discussion about unemployment insurance. It's not even a big part. It's not even a small part. It's just something you keep saying because you don't know anything else about the subject, and so we get the goldfish.

 

Move on. Show us you know something other than this, because the self-satisfaction is a little telling at this point.

 

Don't be Cal with 20 more IQ points.

 

You lost the argument about why unemployment insurance causes more unemployment. You couldn't back that up. Your one point doesn't make sense right now. What else do you have?

[Westside Steve]

You keep bringing it up, I address it and move on, then you keep bringing it up, then I address it again and try to talk about something more relevant, and then you keep bringing it up. Honestly, you must have posted the same point at least ten times. Then you accuse me of wasting time by not admitting how brilliant it is. Which is kind of hard. Since it's not.

 

I don't know what to say to you anymore. You have one point on each topic, and once that's exhausted all you can do is repeat it, whether it's germane to the topic, or like in this case, barely germane. Goldfish. And when called out, you try to keep it alive any way you can.

 

Yes, congratulations, Steve. You've said that people will often take more money and leisure time over less money and work. (No shit?) Which I stipulated weeks ago, while telling you it's not really the point, and then moving on. Clearly, you're just returning to it because you have nothing else to add. I'm trying to get you to see that it's not the entirety of an discussion about unemployment insurance. It's not even a big part. It's not even a small part. It's just something you keep saying because you don't know anything else about the subject, and so we get the goldfish.

 

Move on. Show us you know something other than this, because the self-satisfaction is a little telling at this point.

 

Don't be Cal with 20 more IQ points.

 

You lost the argument about why unemployment insurance causes more unemployment. You couldn't back that up. Your one point doesn't make sense right now. What else do you have?

 

 

You realize you've just added to the thread and said nothing of use right?

WSS

[calfoxwc]

Heck, do you realize (probably not), that it is always YOU who thinks he gets to decide

 

on what is "relevant" and what isn't?

 

Odd how that works, eh? And, anyone who disagrees with you, is lower in IQ...

 

You be the judge, you be the judge. You think. What a whining, ignorant, boring, little lib you are.

 

I don't even remember the last time you added something of interest to this forum. Oh yeah,

 

you never have, because you are frightened to start your own thread.

 

Safer to just attack others' threads, eh ?

[heckofajobbrownie]

If it got you to understand the limits of your point and you stopped repeating it (and then doing your touchdown dance) it would be plenty useful.

 

I'll even try one more time: what you're doing is saying something similar to "Government revenues are so low because lots of wait staff and cab drivers and other tip workers don't declare all of their earnings, so we shouldn't encourage them with laws that allow them to continue doing this."

 

It's undeniably true that most tip workers don't declare all of their earnings, but that doesn't begin to explain why government revenues are have dropped.

 

Just like it's true that some people will choose to take the unemployment check over a job that pays less than the check isn't really the focus of a discussion of extending unemployment benefits in a time of massive unemployment and low GDP growth.

[Mr. T]

Heck, wouldn't it be nice to do away with all income taxes?

 

That would be a real stimulus.

[Westside Steve]

If it got you to understand the limits of your point and you stopped repeating it (and then doing your touchdown dance) it would be plenty useful.

 

I'll even try one more time: what you're doing is saying something similar to "Government revenues are so low because lots of wait staff and cab drivers and other tip workers don't declare all of their earnings, so we shouldn't encourage them with laws that allow them to continue doing this."

 

It's undeniably true that most tip workers don't declare all of their earnings, but that doesn't begin to explain why government revenues are have dropped.

 

Just like it's true that some people will choose to take the unemployment check over a job that pays less than the check isn't really the focus of a discussion of extending unemployment benefits in a time of massive unemployment and low GDP growth.

 

 

Actually heck you've stumbled upon a good example.

 

Lets say the underground economy, including un and underreported tips, under the table payments and "cash only" trades siphon off revenue that the IRS would like to have.

Matter of fact they're tightening scrutiny on all that as we type.

I'd say that's true.

 

Saying those factors are the only reason for lost revenue is as wrong as saying there's no effect.

 

But you insist on pretending there's been a black or white response so you can bicker.

 

Then you're argument will fall along the lines of "well you hate cab drivers!!!!!"

 

WSS

[Westside Steve]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/27/t...o_n_592121.html

 

Anyway it looks like you need to get your team on the same page.....

WSS

[heckofajobbrownie]

Oh, Jesus. You like to envision that I'm "pretending" something, Steve. It makes it easier for you.

 

Never mind, man. You're hopelessly antagonistic.