shepwrite Posted January 6, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2011 Good post Shep, just to add to the stat fest, in the last 10 years post Palmer, the Browns have thrown more TD passes than INT's only twice and you can all guess the years, 2002 and 2007. This team is much closer to being a competitive team in the playoff hunt than most think, we need a QB and the sorry fact is we haven't had one since Bernie. There is more to it than just the QB, but imo the selection of the next QB is as if not more important than the HC, especially since we need to match up with Flacco and Roethlisberger 4 times a year. Talk about reducing it to the cold, hard truth. There was a terrific article that quoted a lot of GMs and Gruden quite a bit, pointing out the simple fact that high-level play and stability at QB is the common thread of the winningest teams of the past decade. Almost all of the sources felt the QB affected the team around him more than vice-versa, citing Manning, Brady, Brees, and Favre/Rodgers being able to win with a revolving door at WR and RB. Not very often do the top teams feature the highest-paid and most decorated OL, either. The best LT of the last 30 years is probably Munoz... and he never won a Super Bowl. Best TE? Gonzales. No rings. CB? Revis. Nothing yet. You really want your best player to be your QB. It's tough to machinate that... but it's the ideal. You want your money on the position with the most influence on the bottom line and nothing else comes close. Generally, you go to left tackle and pass rusher next. Then #1 WR and lockdown corner, although the latter has been hamstrung by rules quite a bit. Oakland's had the second best in the league for five years now... and it hasn't won them anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shepwrite Posted January 6, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2011 Interestingly, pass yardage teams have mostly been playoff teams the last few years. I went over that last year as well. Here are where the playoff teams rank in run yardage: 1 - KC 4 - Jets 5 - Phil 11 - Pitt 12 - Atl 14 - Balt 22 - Chicago 24 - Green Bay 28 - New Orleans 29 - Indy 31 - Seattle Each of the last two years, the team ranked 32nd in rushing made the Super Bowl. You've got some pretty serious contenders ranked 24, 28, and 29 this year. On the whole, that list tells you running for a lot of yards has absolutely no correlation with making the playoffs. It's all over the board. QBR, on the other hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shepwrite Posted January 6, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2011 As far as raw passing yardage: Five teams rank in the bottom half of pass yardage: Seattle, Baltimore, NYJ, Chicago, and Kansas City. I personally expect to see Seattle, the Jets, and KC out after round one. Baltimore will beat KC... not sure who Chicago plays. Indy, New Orleans, and Green Bay rank 1-3-5. They were three of the worst rushing teams. Interesting to watch how that plays out. Otherwise, you have these "top half" teams... 9 - Phil 11 - NE 14 - Pitt 15 - ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted January 12, 2011 Report Share Posted January 12, 2011 12 playoff teams and their ranking in QBR: NE1 GB 3 PHI 4 PIT 5 BAL 7 KC 8 IND 9 ATL 11 NO 12 CHI 16 JETS 27 SEA 28 12 Playoffs teams and their ranking in Scoring DEF: Pitt 1 GB 2 BAL 3 CHI 4 ATL 5 JETS 6 NO 7 NE 8 KC 11 PHI 21 IND 23 SEA 25 I see more of the bottom feeders in QBR still alive, and more of the bottom feeders in Scoring DEF home right now. 3 of the top 10 teams in QBR are out now and they happen to have lower DEF rankings. Just keeping a running tally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted January 12, 2011 Report Share Posted January 12, 2011 As far as raw passing yardage: Five teams rank in the bottom half of pass yardage: Seattle, Baltimore, NYJ, Chicago, and Kansas City. I personally expect to see Seattle, the Jets, and KC out after round one. Baltimore will beat KC... not sure who Chicago plays. Indy, New Orleans, and Green Bay rank 1-3-5. They were three of the worst rushing teams. Interesting to watch how that plays out. Otherwise, you have these "top half" teams... 9 - Phil 11 - NE 14 - Pitt 15 - ATL DEFENSE baby. DEFENSE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shepwrite Posted January 12, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2011 On the macro level, I'm buying your take on defense in the playoffs. BUT... I see scoring defense as the result of statistical factors while QBR IS a statistical factor. If a team scores a lot and doesn't let the other team score much... that's just called winning. 12 playoff teams and their ranking in QBR: NE1 GB 3 PHI 4 PIT 5 BAL 7 KC 8 IND 9 ATL 11 NO 12 CHI 16 JETS 27 SEA 28 12 Playoffs teams and their ranking in Scoring DEF: Pitt 1 GB 2 BAL 3 CHI 4 ATL 5 JETS 6 NO 7 NE 8 KC 11 PHI 21 IND 23 SEA 25 I see more of the bottom feeders in QBR still alive, and more of the bottom feeders in Scoring DEF home right now. 3 of the top 10 teams in QBR are out now and they happen to have lower DEF rankings. Just keeping a running tally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted January 12, 2011 Report Share Posted January 12, 2011 A result of statistical factors? You mean POINTS ALLOWED? Because that is how those teams are ranked. That is not a result of anything BUT one ranking - how many points did your team give up? It is about as pure a ranking regarding making the playoffs as we can find. It is not a result of anything but stopping the team from scoring. Now QBR on the other hand is just the opposite. It is a complicated compilation of a bunch of different statistics, including YPA, Sacks, INTS, and if the guy got laid the night before. I know what you tried to do right there, but no dude. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bringbackbrownie2 Posted January 12, 2011 Report Share Posted January 12, 2011 bottom line, the teams with the better defenses won. Jets have a better D than the colts, Packers have a better D than the Eagles, Ravens have a better D than the chiefs, Seattle doesn't have a better D than the Saints- but they did last Saturday. The saints D gave up over 40 pts to a team that averaged 19 a game all season.. Drew Brees has got to be pissed with his defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted January 18, 2011 Report Share Posted January 18, 2011 Scoring Defense: PIT (1) GB (2) CHI (4) NYJ (6) QBR: GB (3) PIT (5) CHI (16) NYJ (27) The top 2 scoring defenses are still alive, every team in the playoffs is a top 10 Scoring Defense, and as you can see we have some bottom feeding QBR teams still alive and well. QBR is the most important factor for success? Doesn't seem logical, does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted January 18, 2011 Report Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well the point to note in the cart and horse analogy with the QB and good teams is the fact that both the comparables have two entities. We dont have a cart or a horse. Right, well, in New Orleans they have all three, a QB, a cart, and a horse: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted January 18, 2011 Report Share Posted January 18, 2011 Cal, you take away Dallas Clark or just about anyone else and the Colts just keep on winning. You take away Manning and they're the Browns, or close. Don't fool yourself into thinking otherwise. Same for Brees, Brady, and the rest. Nobody influences the bottom line half as much as the quarterback, for better or worse. Shep *************************** But the Saints, Colts and Patriots are out of the playoffs. Those are THE three top tier qbs.. And they have decent defenses, too. I know they can keep winning if you take away a piece, because they still have most of the pieces in place. And the Browns really beat the Pats (Brady) earlier in the year, and the Saints (Brees). You take Wallace and Ward away from Bun rothlicksboogers, and the squeelers would have lost to the ratbirds. Well, maybe, if the ratbirds hadn't given away those two big turnovers... Seriously, look at the first four games that over-rated bun was suspended for: 1 ATL W 15-9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2 Sep 19 @ TEN W 19-11 - - - - - - - - 3 Sep 26 @ TAM W 38-13 - - - - - - - - 4 Oct 3 BAL L 14-17 The squeelers won with their BACKUP qb early on, at the beginning of the season. No bun, still won. GGG It's a team game. With the pieces in place, another piece, even another qb, can step in and win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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