beefjerky Posted September 17, 2011 Report Share Posted September 17, 2011 Well, I usually bet every 2-3 weeks(sometimes just doing it twice in a row if there's a game I'm very confident about) and have came out winning more than losing every single year I've done it, although in the first year I was just above break even, and with enough variance, that can happen any year in theory. I normally make my picks Monday or Tuesday, after seeing an injury report, because the initial lines are almost always better than the ones you get later in the week. This year I'm not doing it because I'm strict on not betting if I feel there's even a chance I can't afford to lose(which everyone should do the same, just for fun, excitement and supplemental unreliable income at worst), and I also don't bet below $80-$100(unless its just a friendly bet), because there's no point. I will update the thread on which picks I got right and which picks I got wrong. I decided to write this out because I'm stuck at the airport right now and am pretty bored. anyway I like the following picks for this Sunday*disclaimer I'm not responsible if you're bad at managing your money, nor do I expect anyone to go off of my word, the NFL is very unpredictable a lot of the times, never bet more than you can afford to lose*: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bucs +3 Bucs to cover(loss by less than 3 or win outright, PUSH if within a FG) @Min -3 Donovan McNabb looks totally out of sync, just had a game reminiscent of Derek Anderson @ Buffalo a few years ago, except McNabb played on a clear sunny day in San Diego and Anderson was in a snowstorm in Buffalo(which the Browns won). Bucs are a young solid competitive team which lost to a team quite similar to them last week(Lions, who I picked over the Bucs), they also have a great CB in Aqib Talib, so that makes it even less likely for Donovan to get any rhythm going. If not for Adrian Peterson, the line would be +8 Min, but keep in mind lines are designed in a way where betting on either side looks attractive(so sportsbooks and bookies can get close to 50-50 on each bet, collecting vig, profitting), not necessarily how many points it'll be apart. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Raiders +3 @BUF -3 Bills to cover(win by more than 3, PUSH if within a FG) Bills are an underrated team who have been held back by Trent Edwards and instability at coaching, Ryan Fitzpatrick is actually a solid QB and they have weapons all over. They have a pro bowl safety Jairus Byrd(made all-pro in 2009), and an average/slightly below average defense. The Raiders are also not as bad as everyone thinks(McFadden is a beast, average defense, best kicker in the world, lacking WRs), but I don't expect them to be able to win on the road at Buffalo, they also make too many mistakes, and are too inconsistent(sound familiar?). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Browns -2 Browns to cover(win by more than 2, PUSH if within 2 somehow) @IND +2 I very reluctantly would make this bet because the Browns lost in a very weird fashion(they just love to find ways to lose games don't they?), they have a new punter which we'll assume won't be shanking punts (25 yards average by McGee , gave the Bengals free points), and we'll assume a Colts snap doesn't happen during a defensive huddle. The Browns D actually played rather well besides that huge blunder(they were shutting down Benson and Haden was playing at an all-pro level against AJ Green until that happened). As a side note, I think Bruce Gradkowski(who played once for the Browns at one point) is an underrated QB who is better than Dalton at this point, so that just makes you what if? What if Dalton didn't get injured would have they have still won? would have he enough awareness to quick snap? Doesn't matter, Browns blew it, and deserved to lose for that reason. The Colts have probably the worst offensive line in football, very likely will finish bottom 3 in overall defense, don't have Peyton Manning(although Collins deserves more credit, he was at the helm for a 13-3 and 11-5 Titans team recently, not even Peyton could play under the Oline he played last Sunday, but he's just not comparable obviously). They might possibly be the worst team in football by the end of the year. All of this just indicates it becoming a solid bet, and well, if you lost this bet, then at least you'd know to avoid betting Browns games like the plague for the rest of the year, there was more to judge the Colts being a bad team than there was to judge the Browns being a bad team in week 1(The Colts were bad in every phase of the game and didn't just make 1 or 2 big mistakes, nearly every snap they were dominated). I normally did, they are very unpredictable, they beat Super bowl champs and lose to chumps(I actually bet on them the year after the Giants won the superbowl, the MNF game had a very favorable spread, that was my last time betting on a Browns game, quit while ahead you know? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MNF Rams +6 @NYG -6 Giants to cover (win by more than 6, PUSH if within 2 FGs) Giants just lost away to an underrated Redskins team(who I picked over the Giants last week, although I broke even on the pick em league 7-7, most of those games I wouldn't have bet on anyway heh), they might be on a down year due to all the starters they lost on offense(steve smith, nyg, boss, a few others), but maybe the players in their place might step up. Justin Tuck and Osi out as well. But they're still solid enough to score points and their defense is still above average, Rams just lost pretty handily to the Eagles at home after Steven Jackson got injured, their defense is below average, Steven Jackson will be limited or may not even play at all. Giants shouldn't have much of a problem. I'd be a bit wary if Hakeem Nicks doesn't play though. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jags -10.5 Jags to cover(lose by less than 10 or win by any) @NYJ +10.5 This just seems like a great value bet, unless the Jets completely blow out the Jags, I find it hard to believe the Jags won't be within by at least 10. Say what you want about Luke McCown(who was also with the Browns at one point), but the Jags play as much mistake-free football as possible, and have an above average defense. Not to mention they have MJD. Offensively the Jets were very overrated last week when playing the Cowboys, they looked very lackluster up until the Cowboys somehow managed to lose both their starting CBs to injury; a situation which almost every QB in the league would flourish in. *note the Vegas line has been reduced to -9 Jets 9 Jags -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Over/Under Yes/No : These are just side bets to add more interest, I do them sometimes(not now as I mentioned in the first lines of the thread) if I find a good situation I'm confident on, I bet on them less than point spreads always. for this week I like the following: Ray Rice total rushing + receiving yards O 119.5 (-130) I'll take the over, rushing+receiving just makes it a good value for someone like Rice, vs the Titans(very solid to great defenses in years past, I don't know enough about them this year though). U 119.5 (even) Colt McCoy (Browns) total passing yards - must play O216.5 (-115) I'll take the over. U216.5 (-115) I like this one a lot because Mccoy got more than that many yards against much better defenses, I expect him to have at least 230-250 passing yards if not more, if the O/U was set at 230 this would be a much tougher bet. The only way it could be under is if Hillis runs all over them blowing them out to the point where the Browns stop passing, but Shurmur seems to be about 60/40 pass/run oriented, and Colt throws to Hillis quite a bit anyway, so a screen pass would still count as passing yards for him. Seems like an easy good bet, the sidebet I'm most confident about. Peyton Hillis Will he score a touch down? Yes -115 I'll take yes, because he's Peyton Hillis, vs a weak run defense no less. No -115 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Picks to avoid of the week: Cowboys -3 @SF +3 This line just makes me sick, the Cowboys are without both of their starting CBs(that alone almost makes me want to pick the 49ers, but I just can't), the 49ers are bad, it's at SF. SF has Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and the Cowboys nickel and dime backs playing as starters. If the line was Cowboys -6, then it'd make me a little less sick, taking the 49ers and have them lose by less than 6, push within 6, or win outright, but I wouldn't want to bet on this game regardless, seems way too unpredictable. If the Cowboys had their starting CBs, the line would likely be set at -6 or -7 for the Cowboys and that would possibly be a decent bet, but that's not the case here. SNF Eagles -2.5 @ATL +2.5 Pretty much flipping a coin with vig on it, makes it no good. Not much needs to be said, I expect it to be a high scoring close game that can go either way. As a sidenote this is Vick's first time playing at Atlanta since he went to prison, there will be a lot of drama for that alone. Add your insight, agree or disagree all for the point of discussion, and hopefully it's kept civil enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WRREBEL Posted September 17, 2011 Report Share Posted September 17, 2011 I'm tellin you the seahawks beat pitt this week. The steelers lose big ben to a knee injury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gips Posted September 18, 2011 Report Share Posted September 18, 2011 Honestly i wouldnt bet more than 10 dollars either way on this one, the browns are rookie heavy and unproven at coach and player and the colts dont have the gear that makes them turn flawlessly.. I think its a winnable game but the browns have some really strange ways of losing and not winning dating from the philly game through the bungal game that show they are not at a primetime stage yet, but it could start to come together at any given time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted September 19, 2011 Report Share Posted September 19, 2011 I'm tellin you the seahawks beat pitt this week. The steelers lose big ben to a knee injury I understand it almost happened. He got whacked in the knee, but I think a brace he was wearing prevented a serious injury. Not that it matters. BR has never been the real key to that team's success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beefjerky Posted September 20, 2011 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2011 Well, I usually bet every 2-3 weeks(sometimes just doing it twice in a row if there's a game I'm very confident about) and have came out winning more than losing every single year I've done it, although in the first year I was just above break even, and with enough variance, that can happen any year in theory. I normally make my picks Monday or Tuesday, after seeing an injury report, because the initial lines are almost always better than the ones you get later in the week. This year I'm not doing it because I'm strict on not betting if I feel there's even a chance I can't afford to lose(which everyone should do the same, just for fun, excitement and supplemental unreliable income at worst), and I also don't bet below $80-$100(unless its just a friendly bet), because there's no point. I will update the thread on which picks I got right and which picks I got wrong. I decided to write this out because I'm stuck at the airport right now and am pretty bored. anyway I like the following picks for this Sunday*disclaimer I'm not responsible if you're bad at managing your money, nor do I expect anyone to go off of my word, the NFL is very unpredictable a lot of the times, never bet more than you can afford to lose*: ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bucs +3 Bucs to cover(loss by less than 3 or win outright, PUSH if within a FG) @Min -3 Covered. Bucs were down 0-17 at half, came back to win 24-20. Mcnabb played much better, Peterson had a big game, but they folded and the Bucs were clutch. Donovan McNabb looks totally out of sync, just had a game reminiscent of Derek Anderson @ Buffalo a few years ago, except McNabb played on a clear sunny day in San Diego and Anderson was in a snowstorm in Buffalo(which the Browns won). Bucs are a young solid competitive team which lost to a team quite similar to them last week(Lions, who I picked over the Bucs), they also have a great CB in Aqib Talib, so that makes it even less likely for Donovan to get any rhythm going. If not for Adrian Peterson, the line would be +8 Min, but keep in mind lines are designed in a way where betting on either side looks attractive(so sportsbooks and bookies can get close to 50-50 on each bet, collecting vig, profitting), not necessarily how many points it'll be apart. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- @BUF -3 Bills to cover(win by more than 3, PUSH if within a FG) Push at 38-35 Bills. Although the Bills were down 3-21 at half, the Raiders lost pretty much how I thought they would, making too many mistakes and being too inconsistent. Fitzpatrick was clutch in the 4th with dwindling time converting a 4th and 3(or 2, I don't remember), and a 4th and 1 to pass a game winning TD. Bills are an underrated team who have been held back by Trent Edwards and instability at coaching, Ryan Fitzpatrick is actually a solid QB and they have weapons all over. They have a pro bowl safety Jairus Byrd(made all-pro in 2009), and an average/slightly below average defense. The Raiders are also not as bad as everyone thinks(McFadden is a beast, average defense, best kicker in the world, lacking WRs), but I don't expect them to be able to win on the road at Buffalo, they also make too many mistakes, and are too inconsistent(sound familiar?). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Browns -2 Browns to cover(win by more than 2, PUSH if within 2 somehow) @IND +2 Covered 27-19 Browns. Pretty much by the reasoning I put. Although the Bears are probably the team with the worst Oline at this point. I very reluctantly would make this bet because the Browns lost in a very weird fashion(they just love to find ways to lose games don't they?), they have a new punter which we'll assume won't be shanking punts (25 yards average by McGee , gave the Bengals free points), and we'll assume a Colts snap doesn't happen during a defensive huddle. The Browns D actually played rather well besides that huge blunder(they were shutting down Benson and Haden was playing at an all-pro level against AJ Green until that happened). As a side note, I think Bruce Gradkowski(who played once for the Browns at one point) is an underrated QB who is better than Dalton at this point, so that just makes you what if? What if Dalton didn't get injured would have they have still won? would have he enough awareness to quick snap? Doesn't matter, Browns blew it, and deserved to lose for that reason. The Colts have probably the worst offensive line in football, very likely will finish bottom 3 in overall defense, don't have Peyton Manning(although Collins deserves more credit, he was at the helm for a 13-3 and 11-5 Titans team recently, not even Peyton could play under the Oline he played last Sunday, but he's just not comparable obviously). They might possibly be the worst team in football by the end of the year. All of this just indicates it becoming a solid bet, and well, if you lost this bet, then at least you'd know to avoid betting Browns games like the plague for the rest of the year, there was more to judge the Colts being a bad team than there was to judge the Browns being a bad team in week 1(The Colts were bad in every phase of the game and didn't just make 1 or 2 big mistakes, nearly every snap they were dominated). I normally did, they are very unpredictable, they beat Super bowl champs and lose to chumps(I actually bet on them the year after the Giants won the superbowl, the MNF game had a very favorable spread, that was my last time betting on a Browns game, quit while ahead you know? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MNF Rams +6 @NYG -6 Giants to cover (win by more than 6, PUSH if within 2 FGs) Covered 28-16 Giants. Pretty much by the reasoning I put, although the Rams would have possibly been closer if not for two blunders, but then the Giants offense would have been different later on in the game. Easy pick. Giants just lost away to an underrated Redskins team(who I picked over the Giants last week, although I broke even on the pick em league 7-7, most of those games I wouldn't have bet on anyway heh), they might be on a down year due to all the starters they lost on offense(steve smith, nyg, boss, a few others), but maybe the players in their place might step up. Justin Tuck and Osi out as well. But they're still solid enough to score points and their defense is still above average, Rams just lost pretty handily to the Eagles at home after Steven Jackson got injured, their defense is below average, Steven Jackson will be limited or may not even play at all. Giants shouldn't have much of a problem. I'd be a bit wary if Hakeem Nicks doesn't play though. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jags -10.5 Jags to cover(lose by less than 10 or win by any) @NYJ +10.5 Wrong. Jets 32-3. Jags were no where near losing by less than 10. "unless the Jets completely blow out the Jags", well, they did. Got this one quite wrong, and in hindsight there wasn't enough to judge the Jags yet to involve betting yet(hypothetical or not), but it was on my judgment of the Jets. This just seems like a great value bet, unless the Jets completely blow out the Jags, I find it hard to believe the Jags won't be within by at least 10. Say what you want about Luke McCown(who was also with the Browns at one point), but the Jags play as much mistake-free football as possible, and have an above average defense. Not to mention they have MJD. Offensively the Jets were very overrated last week when playing the Cowboys, they looked very lackluster up until the Cowboys somehow managed to lose both their starting CBs to injury; a situation which almost every QB in the league would flourish in. *note the Vegas line has been reduced to -9 Jets 9 Jags 3-1 with picks with 1 push(3-1-1 if you wanna list the push), lost on the side bets 1-2 but those were just on the side anyway. Colt had 211 yards surprisingly, o/u was 216.5, Ray rice was under as I underestimated the Titans D, Peyton did indeed score a TD which was an easy pick. Picks to avoid were correct to avoid as well since both of them pretty much ended on coinflips(push on DAl/SF). I understand it almost happened. He got whacked in the knee, but I think a brace he was wearing prevented a serious injury. Not that it matters. BR has never been the real key to that team's success. Yeah when he came down I thought he was going to be out for at least half the year, I've never been a fan of Roflsberger for numerous reasons, but he's a tough big guy who seems like he'll almost never be down due to injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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