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Love Qb Talk- Stats Do Not Lie


tampadawgs

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Observations from the last 12 NFL Drafts in Regards to QBs:

 

In 9 of the last 12 years a QB has been taken 1st overall. The years where they weren't were 2000, 2006 and 2008. 75% of the time a QB goes #1.

 

FIRST QB OFF THE BOARD

When considering the 1st QB taken off the board: 8 of the last 12 have "worked out" (subjective yes, but in my view) - (67%).

The one's that didn't: David Carr 2002, Alex Smith 2005, Vince Young 2006 and JaMarcus Russell 2007. I haven't given up on Vince Young- so it could be 9 of 12 (75%).

 

There is nothing 100% in this business. 67-75% is the closest you will ever get to a sure thing.

 

SECOND QB OFF THE BOARD

When considering the 2nd QB taken off the board: 6 of 12 have worked out and if we give Locker the benefit of the doubt- that is 7 of 12 or 58%. Not bad.

The one's that didn't pan were: Giovanni Carmazzi 2000, Joey Harrington 2002, Matt Leinart 2006, Brady Quinn 2007 and Tim Tebow 2010.

 

THIRD QB OFF THE BOARD

Getting uglier here. Can you really say Jason Campbell panned? I would say no. I will give Blaine Gabbert the benefit of the doubt and say Kevin Kolb panned out even though it's still early. 5 of 12 QBs were good picks from the 3rd QB off the board slot.

 

The winners? Big Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, Josh Freeman and Blaine Gabbert. Success rate of 42%.

 

The rest? Chris Redman, Quinton Quarter, Patrick Ramsey, Kyle Boller, Jason Campbell, Brian Brohm, Jimmy Clausen. Then again, Campbell is a starter- so maybe the success rate is 50%.

 

FOURTH QB OFF THE BOARD

Yes to Rex Grossman? Uh...ok. Yes to Colt McCoy? Chad Henne? There is not a definite "good" NFL starter that was the 4th QB off the board in the last 12 years!

 

The for sure No group? Tee Martin, Matt Tuiasosopo, Josh Mccown, JP Losman, Charlie Frye, Kellen Clemens, John Beck, Pat White.

 

Let's just be nice and say that Henne, Grossman, Mccoy and Ponder are not busts. 4 of 12 here. 33%. Eeks.

 

FIFTH QB OFF THE BOARD

I say yes to Marc Bulger, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, and that's it. 3 of 12. 25%.

 

The no group: Chris Weinke, Dave Ragone, Andrew Walter, Tarvaris Jackson, Drew Stanton, Kevin O'Connell, Steven McGee, Mike Kafka and Andy Dalton. I know its still early on Dalton.

 

 

 

So in review- here are the rough numbers depending on how you classify the draft picks working out in terms of being a quality NFL Starting QB:

 

1st QB off the board: 67-75% success rate

 

2nd QB off the board: 50-58% success rate

 

3rd QB off the board: 42-50% success rate

 

4th QB off the board: 16-33% success rate

 

5th QB off the board: 25-33% success rate

 

See a pattern here?

 

If the Seahawks would have drafted a QB in 2011, he would have been the 5th QB off the board barring a trade up. I know every year is different and you can't go make calls based on history, but it is interesting to note.

 

OTHER TIDBITS

--Of the 15 second round QBs drafted in the last 12 years, only one is a legit star: Drew Brees, and only 4 more are starters in the NFL (Tarvaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Chad Henne, Andy Dalton). Pretty low success rate in the 2nd round.

 

--If the Draft were held today, Brees would have been drafted in Round 1. In 2001 there were only 31 picks in the 1st Round and he was pick 32.

 

--There are nine Starting Quarterbacks (28%) in the NFL that were not drafted in Rounds 1 or 2:

 

Matt Hasselbeck - Rd 6

Tom Brady - Rd 6

Tony Romo- Undrafted

Matt Schaub - Rd 3

Luke Mccown - Rd 4

Kyle Orton - Rd 4

Matt Cassel - Rd 7

Ryan Fitzpatrick - Rd 7

Colt Mccoy - Rd 3

 

-- There are five NFL Starters that were drafted in 2004 (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, Luke Mccown).

 

-- There are six NFL Starters that were drafted in 2005- most of any year (Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick)

 

-- Tarvaris Jackson was the 5th QB off the board in 2006 and Charlie Whitehurst was the 6th QB off the board.

 

-- In three of the last twelve years, four QBs have been drafted in Round 1: 2003, 2004 and 2011.

 

-- In four of the last twelve years, three QBs have been drafted in Round 1: 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2009.

 

-- 18 of 32 NFL Starters were 1st rd Draft Picks- or 56%.

 

-- There have been 32 QBs drafted in Round 1 in the last 12 years for an average of 2.67 per year

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i stoppped reading at this sentence. "The one's that didn't: David Carr 2002, Alex Smith 2005, Vince Young 2006 and JaMarcus Russell 2007. I haven't given up on Vince Young- so it could be 9 of 12 (75%)."

 

Alex Smith is currently a starter for 4-1 ball club and is playing well 65.9% completions, 7 td to 1 int witha qb rating of 104.1 (third best in the league!)

 

Vince Young is a backup (maybe even third string) While I agree that until this year smith has been a bust, how ever i think that Harbaugh is helping him turn the corner. So you should be holding out hope for him, not vince young

 

 

 

edit: I forgot to add that i liked the rest of it =P

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Observations from the last 12 NFL Drafts in Regards to QBs:

 

In 9 of the last 12 years a QB has been taken 1st overall. The years where they weren't were 2000, 2006 and 2008. 75% of the time a QB goes #1.

 

FIRST QB OFF THE BOARD

When considering the 1st QB taken off the board: 8 of the last 12 have "worked out" (subjective yes, but in my view) - (67%).

The one's that didn't: David Carr 2002, Alex Smith 2005, Vince Young 2006 and JaMarcus Russell 2007. I haven't given up on Vince Young- so it could be 9 of 12 (75%).

 

There is nothing 100% in this business. 67-75% is the closest you will ever get to a sure thing.

 

SECOND QB OFF THE BOARD

When considering the 2nd QB taken off the board: 6 of 12 have worked out and if we give Locker the benefit of the doubt- that is 7 of 12 or 58%. Not bad.

The one's that didn't pan were: Giovanni Carmazzi 2000, Joey Harrington 2002, Matt Leinart 2006, Brady Quinn 2007 and Tim Tebow 2010.

 

THIRD QB OFF THE BOARD

Getting uglier here. Can you really say Jason Campbell panned? I would say no. I will give Blaine Gabbert the benefit of the doubt and say Kevin Kolb panned out even though it's still early. 5 of 12 QBs were good picks from the 3rd QB off the board slot.

 

The winners? Big Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, Josh Freeman and Blaine Gabbert. Success rate of 42%.

 

The rest? Chris Redman, Quinton Quarter, Patrick Ramsey, Kyle Boller, Jason Campbell, Brian Brohm, Jimmy Clausen. Then again, Campbell is a starter- so maybe the success rate is 50%.

 

FOURTH QB OFF THE BOARD

Yes to Rex Grossman? Uh...ok. Yes to Colt McCoy? Chad Henne? There is not a definite "good" NFL starter that was the 4th QB off the board in the last 12 years!

 

The for sure No group? Tee Martin, Matt Tuiasosopo, Josh Mccown, JP Losman, Charlie Frye, Kellen Clemens, John Beck, Pat White.

 

Let's just be nice and say that Henne, Grossman, Mccoy and Ponder are not busts. 4 of 12 here. 33%. Eeks.

 

FIFTH QB OFF THE BOARD

I say yes to Marc Bulger, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, and that's it. 3 of 12. 25%.

 

The no group: Chris Weinke, Dave Ragone, Andrew Walter, Tarvaris Jackson, Drew Stanton, Kevin O'Connell, Steven McGee, Mike Kafka and Andy Dalton. I know its still early on Dalton.

 

 

 

So in review- here are the rough numbers depending on how you classify the draft picks working out in terms of being a quality NFL Starting QB:

 

1st QB off the board: 67-75% success rate

 

2nd QB off the board: 50-58% success rate

 

3rd QB off the board: 42-50% success rate

 

4th QB off the board: 16-33% success rate

 

5th QB off the board: 25-33% success rate

 

See a pattern here?

 

If the Seahawks would have drafted a QB in 2011, he would have been the 5th QB off the board barring a trade up. I know every year is different and you can't go make calls based on history, but it is interesting to note.

 

OTHER TIDBITS

--Of the 15 second round QBs drafted in the last 12 years, only one is a legit star: Drew Brees, and only 4 more are starters in the NFL (Tarvaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Chad Henne, Andy Dalton). Pretty low success rate in the 2nd round.

 

--If the Draft were held today, Brees would have been drafted in Round 1. In 2001 there were only 31 picks in the 1st Round and he was pick 32.

 

--There are nine Starting Quarterbacks (28%) in the NFL that were not drafted in Rounds 1 or 2:

 

Matt Hasselbeck - Rd 6

Tom Brady - Rd 6

Tony Romo- Undrafted

Matt Schaub - Rd 3

Luke Mccown - Rd 4

Kyle Orton - Rd 4

Matt Cassel - Rd 7

Ryan Fitzpatrick - Rd 7

Colt Mccoy - Rd 3

 

-- There are five NFL Starters that were drafted in 2004 (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, Luke Mccown).

 

-- There are six NFL Starters that were drafted in 2005- most of any year (Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick)

 

-- Tarvaris Jackson was the 5th QB off the board in 2006 and Charlie Whitehurst was the 6th QB off the board.

 

-- In three of the last twelve years, four QBs have been drafted in Round 1: 2003, 2004 and 2011.

 

-- In four of the last twelve years, three QBs have been drafted in Round 1: 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2009.

 

-- 18 of 32 NFL Starters were 1st rd Draft Picks- or 56%.

 

-- There have been 32 QBs drafted in Round 1 in the last 12 years for an average of 2.67 per year

 

Interesting stuff. Orton and McCown are no longer starters ... both replaced by 1st rounders.

 

Z

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I liked your post and I will be the first person who will say I don'believe in McCoy but he could still improve. But I too was bothered with your classification of Alex Smith. He has been through many changes and he keep battling. Alex Smith might just pan out. It would help if he had a legit star receiver.

 

And given up on Tebow already? Really? Tebow will be starting and he will be bringing the Broncos some wins. I wouldn't count him out yet.

 

You don't think Henne is good? or McCoy? good to passible I would say. And both have a chance to improve still.

 

And how do you classify Blaine Gabbert and Kevin Kolb as successes. I not seeing much yet there.

 

And I would definately say that Jason Campbell has made it. If Orten and Cutler made it than so did Campbell.

 

But with all of that being said the Browns are Crazy if they don't take a QB in the first round. Unless they feel thsat a couple weapons will make all the difference for McCoy.

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This was a post just to show that 1st round picks of QBs have a greater success rate than a third round pick...

 

Smith has had 4 good games...I am not believing the hype yet. He is off to a good year...

 

As for Teabow, you are crazy to think he will succeed. He caught the Defense off gaurd last weak. Remember DA, once defenses get tape on Him he is done!!!! Sorry I cannot stand Teabow at all!!!

 

For us to run a QB out there every weak like a Colt Mccoy, Charlie Frye, Brady Quinn ( first round pic :( ) we need to have a Balt. Raven type Defense. That is what I think our front office is doing with out early draft picks. Haden, Ward, Taylor, Sheard..It would not suprise me at all if we take 2 more stud defensive players in this years draft.

 

Say the Browns take Quinton Coples from North Carlina and Manti Te’o from Notre Dame. The Browns Defense than could maybe carry the Browns like the Ravens D does until we can get a QB that could take us to the Promise land. Imagine the Ravens with a Stafford, Bradford, Freeman thats not even talking about the big boy QBs....

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Jason Campbell and Alex Smith are busts but Vince Young isn't? I think Smith's problems are more to the fact that he has had a new system every year and minimal protection.

 

 

not only has he had a new system year, im not sure all of them fit his style. The year (singular) that norv turner was the offensive cordinator he was starting to show improvement.....then he took the chargers job.

 

I think harbaugh is playing to his qb's strengths.

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You're sounding exactly like our departed pal Shepwrite. Of course, your odds of getting a starting qb in the first round are better, as are your odds of getting a starter at damn near any other position on your team. Want to list the humongous first round qb busts, starting with Ryan Leaf? Joey Harrington?

 

Problem is, busting on a qb in the first round sets you back farther than virtually any other position- just ask the Bengals about David Kingler and Akilli Smith.

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This was a post just to show that 1st round picks of QBs have a greater success rate than a third round pick...

 

Smith has had 4 good games...I am not believing the hype yet. He is off to a good year...

 

As for Teabow, you are crazy to think he will succeed. He caught the Defense off gaurd last weak. Remember DA, once defenses get tape on Him he is done!!!! Sorry I cannot stand Teabow at all!!!

 

For us to run a QB out there every weak like a Colt Mccoy, Charlie Frye, Brady Quinn ( first round pic :( ) we need to have a Balt. Raven type Defense. That is what I think our front office is doing with out early draft picks. Haden, Ward, Taylor, Sheard..It would not suprise me at all if we take 2 more stud defensive players in this years draft.

 

Say the Browns take Quinton Coples from North Carlina and Manti Te’o from Notre Dame. The Browns Defense than could maybe carry the Browns like the Ravens D does until we can get a QB that could take us to the Promise land. Imagine the Ravens with a Stafford, Bradford, Freeman thats not even talking about the big boy QBs....

 

 

But these statistics would be the same for every position drafted. Earlier rounds = greater probability of success than later rounds. 1st off the board in any position will have a greater probability of success than the n+1 player. That's why teams spend so much time and effort measuring and reviewing tape before the draft - so that they take the better player available. And that's why when a stud is found in the 4th to 6th rounds, the team is really credited because the probabilities start getting pretty low down there.

 

And yes, the way things are going for Colt, we could end up picking a QB with our first pick of the draft next year. But I hope not.

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I remember when Sheppie insisted that super duper Matt Leinart was the star qb the Browns needed, you know...

 

he would "raise the level of play of his offense to the super bowl"....

 

at least that is one disaster the Browns never made. Stats just are an indicator of

 

what people want to prove, sometimes, two people can use the same stats, but tweaked and presented differently,

 

to prove two different viewpoints.

 

Stats "said" that Jamarcus Russel, Matt Leinart, Alex Smith, etc etc..... would be stars.... etc. etc. etc.

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This is the sort of analysis that I frequently do...so thanks for saving me the time to do it.

 

As someone said, this sort of demonstration, showing the success rate of each position by draft rank, can be applied to any position. It would be interesting to see how it applies to running backs who at one time were the stars of the draft process, but now have seemingly been relegated to role players.

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Baby Colt threw for over 350 yards in his last game and we still sucked and couldn't pull out a win.

 

I believe you need to have a top notch QB coach and a top notch OC to have a effective QB. If the man has the tools and is teachable you have a winning combination.

 

But we are talking about the New and Improved Browns that the NFL gave us and we still cannot get the laundry to come out right. Maybe we should sell it to the Chinese, they are great at pressing shirts and ties.

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And before Tom Brady there were little to no successful late-round QB's.

 

The past is not always an indicator of the future.

 

Bart Starr was a 17th round pick. Brian Sipe a 13th round pick. Actually there were more late round successes in th past than in more recent years when scouting systems have become more sophisticated and those diamonds in the rough are now easier to discern.

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