Performanced Based Value

[BadNewsBrowns]

Interesting article about the Browns pbv,kinda like the football version of moneyball. Doesn't and can't really take into account the impact one player can have on an offense/defense and their presence letting others succeed. But to sum it up Browns were 2.5M in the red and 49ers were 59.4M in the black.

 

www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/02/26/performance-based-value-cleveland-browns/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Performance Based Value: Cleveland Browns

Khaled Elsayed | 2013/02/26

 

 

In this series of pieces, Pro Football Focus is hammering into the value of players. To us it’s a “Performance Based Value” number, telling you what players were worth (by our grading) in 2012. You can read about the work we’ve done to create it here, but in short:

 

• It’s solely about what a player did on the field in 2012

• Players are grouped by positions so their play essentially earns them a portion of the positional salary pool

• It’s all about cap hits (these values are approximate)

 

Who the most undervalued and overvalued Cleveland Browns in 2012? Here they are:

 

(* Denotes player missed significant portion of time through injury)

 

Undervalued

 

1. T.J. Ward, Safety

 

Since the Browns snagged Ward in the second round of the 2010 NFL draft, the strong safety has represented excellent value. An impressive rookie year put him on the radar of everyone, but missing time in 2011 and playing in Cleveland saw him fall just as quickly off it. Even his 2012 season — where he would finish the year our third-ranked strong safety — didn’t garner much attention. The Browns won’t care, though, because it helps keep his value down when the man who made the fourth-most defensive stops in the run game (22) comes to renegotiate his contract.

 

2012 Cap Hit: $1.1m

2012 Performance Based Value: $6.1m

Value Differential: +$4.9m

 

2. Mitchell Schwartz, Offensive Tackle

 

With the implementation of a rookie wage cap, those making the leap from the college game have never been more valuable. Literally. With team-friendly deals that ensure players must prove themselves first, if you can find a starter and he proves competent, you’re guaranteed to get value. That’s where Schwartz comes in, with the young right tackle having a great debut season after a slow start. He finished seventh overall in our right tackle rankings.

 

2012 Cap Hit: 940k

2012 Performance Based Value: $4.8m

Value Differential: +$3.9m

 

3. Kaluka Maiava, Linebacker

 

After years of really doing nothing for the Browns, injury meant Cleveland didn’t have anywhere to turn at linebacker. Rather than this being a bad thing, Maiava took his chance with both hands in the Browns’ base 4-3 defense (coming off the field in nickel) and made a case for an every-down role wherever he plays football next year. He was responsible for just 0.5 Yards Per Cover Snap, lowest of all 4-3 outside linebackers.

 

2012 Cap Hit: $700k

2012 Performance Based Value: $4m

Value Differential: +$3.3m

 

4. John Greco, OG – Cap: $800k, PBV: $3.7m, Value Differential: $2.6m

 

5. Josh Gordon, WR– Cap: $970k, PBV: $3.1m, Value Differential: $2.1m

 

6. Trent Richardson, RB – Cap: $3.7m, PBV: $5.8m, Value Differential: $2.1m

 

7. Usama Young, S – Cap: $1.8m, PBV: $2.9m, Value Differential: $1.1m

 

8. Juqua Parker, DE – Cap: $2.5m, PBV: $3.6m, Value Differential: $1.1m

 

9. Billy Winn, DT – Cap: $400k, PBV: $1.5m, Value Differential: $1m

 

10. Alex Mack, OC – Cap: $3.2m, PBV: $4.2m, Value Differential: $960k

 

 

 

Overvalued

 

1. Ahtyba Rubin, Defensive Tackle

 

Far from Rubin having a terrible year, he’s just the owner of a contract not reflective of his talents. He finished 2012 with a positive grade, particularly for his work in the run game where he finished 15th of all defensive tackles, with 20 defensive stops. But for a player who rushed the passer as much as he did (388 times), 18 combined sacks, hits, and hurries (he had 28 in 2011) isn’t enough.

 

2012 Cap Hit: $9.4m

2012 Performance Based Value: $2.8m

Value Differential: -$6.6m

 

2. Scott Fujita*, Linebacker

 

What do you expect when Fujita, who made more of an impact off the field with his battle with the Commissioner, and played only 126 snaps all year. He actually played pretty well in those, picking up eight defensive stops, but you’re never going to represent good value missing this much time.

 

2012 Cap Hit: $4.9m

2012 Performance Based Value: $950k

Value Differential: -$3.9m

 

3. D’Qwell Jackson, Linebacker

 

There are certain things Jackson does very well — he flows to the ball and is good at working through traffic to find the ballcarrier — but if an offensive linemen gets their hands on him? Well, he can be made to look very average. After a genuinely impressive comeback year in 2011, he couldn’t match his performance, as the Browns didn’t do a great job of keeping bodies off him.

 

2012 Cap Hit: $6.2m

2012 Performance Based Value: $2.4m

Value Differential: -$3.8m

 

4. Joe Haden, CB – Cap: $8.7m, PBV: $5m, Value Differential: -$3.7m

 

5. Phil Dawson, K – Cap: $3.8m, PBV: $1.3m, Value Differential: -$2.5m

 

6. Joe Thomas, OT – Cap: $11.9m, PBV: $9.6m, Value Differential: -$2.3m

 

7. Dimitri Patterson, CB – Cap: $3.7m, PBV: $1.5m, Value Differential: -$2.2m

 

8. Joshua Cribbs, WR – Cap: $2.7m, PBV: $825k, Value Differential: -$1.9m

 

9. Brandon Jackson, RB – Cap: $2.3m, PBV: $700k, Value Differential: -$1.6m

 

10. Frostee Rucker, DE – Cap: $2.1m, PBV: $825k, Value Differential: -$1.3m

 

 

 

Summary – Team Value Differential: -$2.5m

 

Relatively speaking, the Browns got decent value out of a lot of their players. Part of the problem is guys like Joe Thomas being paid amounts that are nigh on impossible to live up to, while few players really blew away what they should be earning. In total, 31 put the team in credit, 32 put them in the red.

[The Gipper]

My attitude is: who gives a flying fuck about the money except the owner paying and the players getting paid.

 

Give me an analysis that tells me how productive a player is on the field compared to all other talent in the league. Leave the money out of it....unless they want to give me some.

[Browns57]

Unlike The Gipper (who is likely just upset he didn't come up this analysis, or find the article) I found this a very interesting read. Thanks for posting. Every good manager knows how important having value on your team is. If you can get $100,000 worth of work for $50,000 you are going to take it every day! The Browns lack of value in these terms has been a huge problem throughout the years. We get a good player and then we overpay hoping to keep them because we know how tough it is to get another good player to come to Cleveland.

 

It seems however that the new regime is taking steps to correct this problem already. Dawson is gone, and Cribbs too (I think, lol), Fujita, Brandon Jackson. We have brought in some new talent and we haven't broken the bank so I am all smiles thus far. Again, thanks for the informative post.

[Joeb]

With the new cap in place Analytics Has become the new text mining . Meaningful patterns of data. This is really important when looking at guys like T.J. Ward, Safety The first 4 games 2012, Without Haden he Looked bad . Then ended as third most valuable player on the team . I seen this article a few weeks back . It cleared up some argument we where having on a Yahoo board . Nice find .

Off coarse It take some critical thinking And leaps of Logic have to be applied .

[The Gipper]

Unlike The Gipper (who is likely just upset he didn't come up this analysis, or find the article) I found this a very interesting read. Thanks for posting. Every good manager knows how important having value on your team is. If you can get $100,000 worth of work for $50,000 you are going to take it every day! The Browns lack of value in these terms has been a huge problem throughout the years. We get a good player and then we overpay hoping to keep them because we know how tough it is to get another good player to come to Cleveland.

 

It seems however that the new regime is taking steps to correct this problem already. Dawson is gone, and Cribbs too (I think, lol), Fujita, Brandon Jackson. We have brought in some new talent and we haven't broken the bank so I am all smiles thus far. Again, thanks for the informative post.

 

Oh, I understand the importance of the money and analytics to the participants of the sport and to the management of the sport I just don't want to hear bullshit these guys and their money.

I want the Browns to put good players on the team, and to win. I know they have to live inside a salary cap....but what I really want to know is if a guy can play football.

When I was young the highest played player was probably Jim Brown who made about 100K a year.

I don't care if all the players still made that kind of money.

I want to know if they can block, tackle, throw, catch, run, cover. I don't care if they make 100K a year to do that or 10M a year. It is all the same to me.

[Joeb]

We can see players like Haden and Thomas get overvalued but, There effect on the teams overall strength can't be measured .Most writers don't watch games like Cleveland VS KC . They can not see Haden and Thomas As positive influences on Guys like Ward and Mack .

If we look at two players .

1. Paul Kruger, Outside Linebacker

 

The contract year of Kruger saw him take his game to another level, consistently producing pressure, especially from the Ravens’ nickel packages. He finished 2012 with the highest Pass Rushing Productivity score of all 3-4 outside linebackers after registering 55 quarterback disruptions on 359 pass rushing snaps.

 

2012 Cap Hit: $870k

2012 Performance Based Value: $7.5m

Value Differential: +$6.6m

 

4. Desmond Bryant, DT – Cap: $1.9m, PBV: $6.8m, Value Differential: +$4.9m

 

We get a good idea or measurable pattern . The way Jimmy H may think . A strategic advantage can be had next year if the pattern continues .

[BadNewsBrowns]

Unlike The Gipper (who is likely just upset he didn't come up this analysis, or find the article) I found this a very interesting read. Thanks for posting. Every good manager knows how important having value on your team is. If you can get $100,000 worth of work for $50,000 you are going to take it every day! The Browns lack of value in these terms has been a huge problem throughout the years. We get a good player and then we overpay hoping to keep them because we know how tough it is to get another good player to come to Cleveland.

 

It seems however that the new regime is taking steps to correct this problem already. Dawson is gone, and Cribbs too (I think, lol), Fujita, Brandon Jackson. We have brought in some new talent and we haven't broken the bank so I am all smiles thus far. Again, thanks for the informative post.

 

No problem, I liked it myself thought it was pretty interesting.

 

This is really important when looking at guys like T.J. Ward, Safety The first 4 games 2012, Without Haden he Looked bad .

 

Nothing too bad stands out to me, in week 4 against the Ravens he broke his hand and played poorly against the Giants in week 5.

 

2013 is his contract year so I expect a big year from Ward, if he can stay healthy.