Richardson & YPC

[BadNewsBrowns]

A while back I posted that I heard a stat that Richardson was ranked #2 in the league facing 7+ man fronts on rushing attempts. Well it seems I was wrong, at least according to Pro Football Focus.

 

Richardson actually ranked 5% lower than the league average of attempts with 8 or more defenders in the box with 48 and ranked 11th in the league with a total of 267 carries.

 

For comparison, Frank Gore ranked 12th with 248 carries and ranked #1 with 109 attempts coming with 8 or more defenders in the box.

 

In Richardson's defense he did play injured last year in Shurmur's inept offense. Richardson only averaged 3.6 ypc in 2012, 2nd to last among running backs with at least 200 carries.

 

Maybe attributing Richardson's lack of success in ypc due to defenses stacking the line could be a misconception.

 

It's believed that the true measure of a Quarterback's success is his YPA, not passing yards,so I would assume this translates to running backs as well. Is Richardson going to be a franchise back a la Adrian Peterson(5.0 career ypc)? Or is he just a bruiser like Eddie George (3.6 career ypc)?

 

Putting the over/under at 4.5 this year for T-Rich, what's your bet?

 

 

 

 

www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/05/08/facing-eight-in-the-box/

[Erie Dawg]

Hundred yards/ per game and I'm happy.

[Zombo]

I think he will have a career similar to Emmitt Smith, who averaged 4.2 yards per carry for his career.

 

They are both short guys with big legs and burst who can fire through a hole, and good receivers too.

 

In fact they are eerily similar.

 

Emmit's rookie year: 937 yards 3.9 ypc 11 Tds

T-rich rookie year: 950 yards 3.6 ypc 11 TDs

 

Guess what happened in Emmitt's second year? The Cowboys hired some dude named Norv Turner as Offensive Coordinator.

 

Emmitt during Norv's three years as Cowboys OC:

 

1,563, 4.3 and 12td

1,713, 4.6 and 18td

1,486, 5.3 and 9td

 

So Trent gets 1500, yards, 12 TDs and 4.3 ypc this year ... I think we can live with that.

 

Richardson is a little heavier, but he may be a little shiftier too.

 

Zombo

-- by the way, Aikman jumped from a 66 rating to an 86 rating his third year ... Norv's first year as OC

[Browns149]

I hope Turner is here for 3 years.

[D Bone]

Emmitt was bullet proof, and our guy is injury prone. To say that TR "will have a career similar to Emmitt Smith" is a pretty big leap..........Think Grand Canyon.

[EmporerGhoolie]

I think he will have a career similar to Emmitt Smith, who averaged 4.2 yards per carry for his career.

 

They are both short guys with big legs and burst who can fire through a hole, and good receivers too.

 

In fact they are eerily similar.

 

Emmit's rookie year: 937 yards 3.9 ypc 11 Tds

T-rich rookie year: 950 yards 3.6 ypc 11 TDs

 

Guess what happened in Emmitt's second year? The Cowboys hired some dude named Norv Turner as Offensive Coordinator.

 

Emmitt during Norv's three years as Cowboys OC:

 

1,563, 4.3 and 12td

1,713, 4.6 and 18td

1,486, 5.3 and 9td

 

So Trent gets 1500, yards, 12 TDs and 4.3 ypc this year ... I think we can live with that.

 

Richardson is a little heavier, but he may be a little shiftier too.

 

Zombo

-- by the way, Aikman jumped from a 66 rating to an 86 rating his third year ... Norv's first year as OC

Richardson is nothing like Emmit Smith. Richardson is not durable and never in his career was he known for being successful as a plow horse with 7 ad 8 men stacked at the line. He is indeed a talented runner, albeit one on a short career path due to being fragile. His strength is in getting yards once he is past the LOS.

 

If things go the way I see it, that is to say, the lack of skilled players on offense will allow teams to continue putting all their focus near the LOS, Turner's oddense, by mid season will look no different than Shurmurs and Richardson will have less success than he did in 2012. I see Richardson missing 4-5 games, posting 3.5 ypc, 700 yards and maybe 8-9 TDs.

[gftChris]

I think we'll see richardson not being forced to play every single down, not being ridden in to the ground like he was under shurmur last year. With Dion Lewis looking as good as he is, I can see him getting maybe 25% or more of the carries, especially when richardson does have a slight knock. Those little injuries that can be exacerbated by continuing to play every down on every series, won't be as troublesome hopefully.

[DieHardBrownsFan]

Zombo is attempting to stir up the enthusiasm as the beginning of the season approaches, and in typical Cleveland fashion, everyone is already shitting on some players. At least wait until something happens before you start your bitching.

[USFBrown]

It would be great if he turned out anything close to like emmit. Unfortunately hes seems to be injury prone. Hopefully he can heal up and stay healthy. If he's healthy I believe he can be a top 5 back. But he's got to stay healthy.

[Zombo]

Trent Richardson has missed one regular season football game due to injury.

 

I own the Emmitt comparison.

 

Let's play ball.

 

Zombo

[The Gipper]

Richardson is nothing like Emmit Smith. Richardson is not durable and never in his career was he known for being successful as a plow horse with 7 ad 8 men stacked at the line. He is indeed a talented runner, albeit one on a short career path due to being fragile. His strength is in getting yards once he is past the LOS.

 

If things go the way I see it, that is to say, the lack of skilled players on offense will allow teams to continue putting all their focus near the LOS, Turner's oddense, by mid season will look no different than Shurmurs and Richardson will have less success than he did in 2012. I see Richardson missing 4-5 games, posting 3.5 ypc, 700 yards and maybe 8-9 TDs.

Whether or not TR will be durable during his career remains totally to be seen. Any number of the greatest RBs in history overcame early injury bugs to become great runners, or overcame slow starts, including OJ Simpson and Emmit Smith.

To predict injuries like you have is a foolish gesture. It certainly could happen..but then he could end up gaining 2K yards for all we know.

[Tour2ma]

Z's Emmitt comparison is fair for what it is... a comparison of circumstances. Agree or disagree with his conclusion, but it is thoughtful...

 

Also, "injury prone" does not mean injured every year. Is AP injury prone? He's missed games in 3 of his 6 seasons. But "Oh Lordy" when he does play a full season...

 

On the 4.5 YPC question.... I gotta take the under... 4.5 YPC is a pretty tall order for a featured RB.

 

 

A couple thoughts on the OP's article on 7/8 man fronts:

• Simply based upon my memory of the frequency (and intensity) of my screaming at the TV for Wheezy to audible, I was shocked that TR's % of 8-man fronts was not higher.
• RB's that run out of read offenses (e.g., SF's Gore) are going to face more 8-man looks.
• RB's that play behind bad QB's (e.g., AP and the 2 NYJ RB's) are going to face more 8-man looks.
• RB's that are 1st/2nd down backs are going to face more 8-man looks.

Reading my own bullet points in total, I am even more amazed that TR is not near the top. Only thing I could think of was that playing from behind reduced the number of 8-man fronts he saw. Here are the 2012 stats for playing with the lead:

http://www.footballperspective.com/time-spent-leading-tied-or-trailing/

 

Sure enough only 6 teams played from behind more than us in 2012: KC, OAK, JAX, PHI, DET and NYJ. With the exception of the dismal Jets, the correlation of trailing and running on a lower percentage of 8-man's looks pretty strong. To have 2 RB's rank so high in the OP's list, yet trail such a high percentage of the time is testimony to just how bad they are...

 

I wonder how much Dallas' "playing-while-trailing" percentage dropped in Norv's first year there???

[thenew23]

Trent Richardson has missed one regular season football game due to injury.

 

I own the Emmitt comparison.

 

Let's play ball.

 

Zombo

 

Thank you!! Injury-prone my A$$... He gets a little ding here, a little lump there... who doesn't?? The problem is that his get BLOWN OUT OF PROPORTION b/c he is the most talented player on our team. "Oh no he missed a preseason game... boo hoo hoo... " This guy needs 2 quarters max in all of preseason to be in game shape and ready to play week 1...

 

He played EVERY GAME last year except ONE. And, you could say he sat that one out b/c the new owner didn't want his workhorse wasting his talents and risking injury in a meaningless game...

[EmporerGhoolie]

I think we'll see richardson not being forced to play every single down, not being ridden in to the ground like he was under shurmur last year. With Dion Lewis looking as good as he is, I can see him getting maybe 25% or more of the carries, especially when richardson does have a slight knock. Those little injuries that can be exacerbated by continuing to play every down on every series, won't be as troublesome hopefully.

This is the same logic as not playing guys in the preseason to keep them from getting injured.Total nonsense. Wear and tear due to many plays is only one way players get injured. The NFL is viscious and a guy can get hurt on ANY play. Richardson's past ijuries have not been caused because of his carrying the ballso many, many times, He get's hurt randomly and he does so because he is on the fragile side.

 

I had this same argument a few years ago when I wanted to get rid of Hardesty, and also back in the Day with Courtney Brown.

When guys get injured early on, and they get injured a second time, the handwriting is on the wall. Now, I am not talking about a QB who gets lambasted, but instead about a player whose position involves regular contact.

 

If his body gives in early and repeatedly, you have to be a fucking buffoon not to understand that it is going to keep happening.

This is why I advocated drafting the RB the Steelers did. I like TR, but he is a short-term player, and if as I believe teams stack the box against the 2013 Browns, he is likely to get hurt again. I cringe thinking about him running every time he carries the ball.

 

To predict Browns success based on this guy gaining 1200 yards and making 15 TDs is a real stretch.

 

People that don't understand football somehow believe that by popping a guy in and out he will magically avoid those plays that can injure him. This is like sinning a slot machine only every 90 seconds thinking that you are going to avoid all the losing spins.

Football players get paid millions to play football. If there is worry about him geting reinjured or having yet another new injury, it is because the gur is fragile. And finally, I will say it again, as I did with RG3, once a guy is hurt, in a league of sharks, his probability of future injuries goes way up.

[USFBrown]

Being injured and playing all games but one is two different things. If he's not playing with cracked ribs, he's a beast. Not taking anything away from him, just saying if he can keep from playing injured most the season he will dominate.

[EmporerGhoolie]

if he can keep from playing injured most the season he will dominate.

If I can hit my target ever time tomorrow night, keep my head down through my shot and adjust before the lanes transition too much, I should shoot a perfect 900 series and my team will win the summer league championship.

 

Richardson gets hurt. Understand and accept that he will never domnate. He is never going to be a HOF back nor will he eer be a league-leadin star.

 

He is a good athlete but getting hurt is part of his net worth. He's gonna miss games and that's all there is to it.

[gftChris]

So just run the guy in to the ground, then when he's done run the next guy in to the ground? That's just plain stupid. You rotate guys not just to keep them injury free, but to keep them fresh as well, it helps them recover faster. Yes, any player can get injured on any given play, so you can't mitigate for that, you have to manage the injuries, strains and general fitness issues you *can* control.

[The Gipper]

If I can hit my target ever time tomorrow night, keep my head down through my shot and adjust before the lanes transition too much, I should shoot a perfect 900 series and my team will win the summer league championship.

 

Richardson gets hurt. Understand and accept that he will never domnate. He is never going to be a HOF back nor will he eer be a league-leadin star.

 

He is a good athlete but getting hurt is part of his net worth. He's gonna miss games and that's all there is to it.

There may be some truth to what you say. Jim Brown missed zero games in his career, Walter Payton missed one...but, that is obviously NOT always the case. Guys can and do get hurt randomly...but that does not necessarily mean they will always be prone to being hurt.

i mean, Adrian Peterson had ACL surgery, and the next year runs for over 2K yards. Quite an exception perhaps, but I am sure there are less notorius examples of a RB getting hurt early in his career, but the flourishing.

[Flyin J]

Really? This guy gets a hangnail and we know about it. He played through a lot of dings last year in a one dimensional offense. If we can pass the ball efficiently so we can get the safeties out of the box Trent will go over 4.0 ypc blindfolded with his feet tied together. All these Trent haters are gonna be changing their tune by week 3.

[Tour2ma]

If I can hit my target ever time tomorrow night, keep my head down through my shot and adjust before the lanes transition too much, I should shoot a perfect 900 series and my team will win the summer league championship.

 

Perfect analogy... not...

 

This is the same logic as not playing guys in the preseason to keep them from getting injured.Total nonsense. Wear and tear due to many plays is only one way players get injured. The NFL is viscious and a guy can get hurt on ANY play. Richardson's past ijuries have not been caused because of his carrying the ballso many, many times, He get's hurt randomly and he does so because he is on the fragile side.

 

I had this same argument a few years ago when I wanted to get rid of Hardesty, and also back in the Day with Courtney Brown.

When guys get injured early on, and they get injured a second time, the handwriting is on the wall. Now, I am not talking about a QB who gets lambasted, but instead about a player whose position involves regular contact.

 

If his body gives in early and repeatedly, you have to be a fucking buffoon not to understand that it is going to keep happening.

This is why I advocated drafting the RB the Steelers did. I like TR, but he is a short-term player, and if as I believe teams stack the box against the 2013 Browns, he is likely to get hurt again. I cringe thinking about him running every time he carries the ball.

 

To predict Browns success based on this guy gaining 1200 yards and making 15 TDs is a real stretch.

 

People that don't understand football somehow believe that by popping a guy in and out he will magically avoid those plays that can injure him. This is like sinning a slot machine only every 90 seconds thinking that you are going to avoid all the losing spins.

Football players get paid millions to play football. If there is worry about him geting reinjured or having yet another new injury, it is because the gur is fragile. And finally, I will say it again, as I did with RG3, once a guy is hurt, in a league of sharks, his probability of future injuries goes way up.

 

Folks are disputing your insistence that overuse does not lead to injury. So naturally you spend most of the above on repeat injuries?

 

Your pretending there is not correlation between carries and likelihood of injury is just being willfully ignorant. It's been studied and "The Curse of the 370" was the result.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2007/370-carries-revisited

"From 1978 through 2004, 60 running backs had seasons of at least 340 carries. Comparing the number of carries for each running back with the number of yards he gained the following year gives us a correlation coefficient of -.24. In other words, as players carry the ball more, they are less likely to run for as many yards the following year, due to a mixture of lost effectiveness and injury."

 

And as far as injury goes... whether it is or is not a predictor of future durability has a lot to do with the nature of the injury, e.g., a broken hand vs. a blown knee vs. a concussion. Breaks mend stronger than they were originally. Ligaments can be restored such that any residual change is psychological. Only concussions are accumulative both in susceptibility and effect.

 

I am worried about TR's knees. I am worried about him pulling muscle(s). I am not worried about his ribs. And so far, despite his running style, I am not concerned about his head. And if we run TR (or any back) against 8-man fronts in 2013 any time excepting short yardage, I'll blame Wheezy and the staff... just as I did last year.

 

So just run the guy in to the ground, then when he's done run the next guy in to the ground? That's just plain stupid. You rotate guys not just to keep them injury free, but to keep them fresh as well, it helps them recover faster. Yes, any player can get injured on any given play, so you can't mitigate for that, you have to manage the injuries, strains and general fitness issues you *can* control.

 

Exactly... keep RB's fresh and healthy and they can better react and protect themselves from hits. Fatigue and physical limitations reduce the ability to react.

 

But those who "don't know football" (or think it is comparable to bowling) just can't understand this...

[SkyComesFirst]

Here is what I think. When the discussion around any player is based around how do we not use him and keep him healthy? Ah, he's fragile.

 

I don't think anyone here is suggesting he run the ball 40 times per game, and surely every time a play is run, there is risk of injury. I don't see TR being a a player for very long. AP, he is not.

[gftChris]

Here is what I think. When the discussion around any player is based around how do we not use him and keep him healthy? Ah, he's fragile.

 

I don't think anyone here is suggesting he run the ball 40 times per game, and surely every time a play is run, there is risk of injury. I don't see TR being a a player for very long. AP, he is not.

Possibly, but he is a player we have, and if we manage him, he can be a very good, if not elite, RB for us for at least 5 years. Who knows, in that time we might see Lewis, or even Maysonnet if he lives up to the hype take over as no.1 back. But if wee get another 5 years of 12 TDs + 1k yards, I don't think too many people will be upset.