Making the BEST 1st round pick...

[WPB Dawg Fan]

The biggest mistake most people make when trying to create mock drafts is that they forget that the guys ACTUALLY DRAFTING have several months to consider whom they want to draft...and base it not only on who is available at the pick they are taking...but on the subsequent picks they INTEND to make.

 

It is for that reason the Browns EASY choice last year was LT Joe Thomas. The Browns new that they would be able to pick up a key RB (or with a little luck have a shot at trading up and get a QB...OK, that was blind luck). So they were able to pass on Adrian Peterson...and get their franchise LT for the next 10+ years.

 

The Browns this year have to look at a number of things. They primarily need defense. The draft this year is STOCKED with LB's (arguably our biggest need). However, there are other considerations we need to look at.

 

DB's

1. Sean Jones: He is a UFA. He is likely to command a pretty big payroll...and the Browns are in the bottom half of the league in available cap room.

2. Daven Holley: He is also a UFA, and is coming off of a pretty serious knee injury.

3. Mike Adams: UFA. He did double duty for us playing S and CB in the slot.

4. Travis Daniels: UFA

 

That is 4 DB's going into UFA. That could make the choice of a DB very critical. The guy rated closest to the top of the draft here is CB/S Jenkins out of OSU. He would make a lot of sense as he is projected to be able to play both positions.

 

Looking at the 2nd round...Patrick Chung seems to stand out at S...he is a heavy hitter and showed excellent coverage skills in the Senior Bowl...but it is still a pretty big drop from the top of the draft.

 

OL

1. Seth McKinney: UFA...he was good depth..but not very impressive to me

2. Rex Hadnot: another guy who showed he was good depth...but not a solid starter

3. Lennie Friedman: is this experiment over yet?

4. Kevin Shaffer: he got our QB's killed on any number of occasions

5. Ryan Tucker: he is great when in...but hasn't been IN!

 

That is 5 question marks on the OL. There are a couple top notch OL at the top of the draft...but I really don't see the Browns going that high 2x in 3yrs.

 

As for the 2nd round...again...too many needs. I think the Browns stay pat unless they can get an extra 2nd/3rd round pick to throw this way.

 

DL

This is my pet pieve on the defense. We have 3 DT's playing right now...and ZERO DE's. That is why the Browns can't stop the run OR the pass. The DE's (DT's I mean) have no side to side mobility. That allows teams to attack our OLB's with their OT's and get outside. When the DE's actually start playing wide to take on the OT's...the other team simply turns it inside and sweeps past them up the middle. We have a couple of young guys (Purcell/Pittman) who MAY be able to play DE...but on the whole it is a very poor area on this team. C.Williams has yet to show (I know, he was injured) he can make it as a 3-4 DE...so we have ZERO depth...and not even a complete starting group.

 

The problem is, there are no elite DE's for the 3-4 in this draft. The highest rated is probably Tyler Jackson...and he is a mid to late 1st round guy. Paul Kruger may very well be the next guy who could carry the weight necessary...so I doubt we go this route. Although Ayers is an interesting option...I am not sure where he will go.

 

LB's

We have hashed this and rehashed it...so I won't get into it.

 

WR's

To be honest....I doubt we do anything here. We have a #1 in Edwards...and I think he just needs some time to get his head on. Stallworth is most likely staying around and will get every opportunity to play at #2...then we have JJ trying to come back and Steptoe/Hubbard/Cribbs all vying for playing time.

 

RB's

Wright is all but gone...unless he signs a real team friendly contract. Lewis is going to be the real question. Do we go with him or cut him (no trade is likely). If we cut him...then RB comes on the table in rounds 2-4. Do we go with a bigger name or go for Marlon Lucky (can be gotten in 4 or 5). Either way...we need somebody with POWER. B.Jacobs has been brought up...but he hasn't faired well against AFC North teams...and is going to be too expensive for our cap.

 

With all that considered, I would say that our pick comes down to a combination of the following players:

 

1st: Curry/Jenkins/Raji (move to a 4-3 base)/Maualuga (I think this is too high)

2nd: Chung/Mathews/Greene/Brown/a center/

 

(as a side, I was looking at Detroit...and I thought it might make a lot of sense for both teams for them to draft a LT and then send their 2nd to us for DA)