Interesting QB Draft Information

[thenew23]

First off, I have too much time on my hands currently...

 

Second,

Of the 30 QBs who have won Super Bowls, only 28 of them were drafted.

(Steve Young was taken in the 1st round of the supplemental draft, and Kurt Warner was undrafted).

Using the various measures of central tendency, here is their average draft position (overall)

Mean - 52.68

Median - 17.5

Mode - 1 (7)

Also, 17 of 28 (>60%) were drafted in the top 32, and

13 of 28 (>45%) were drafted in the top 12

 

Third,

Of the Top 25 QBs in All-time Win Percentage, only 24 of them were drafted,

(agan Steve Young was taken in the supp. draft)

Again using the various measures, here is their average draft position (overall)

Mean - 47.875

Median - 20.5

Mode - 1 (4)

Also, 12 out of 24 (50%) were drafted in the top 14

 

and Lastly,

There were 18 QBs drafted #1 overall between 1970 and 2010

(I won't include 2011-2013 b/c I'll give a 4 year cushion to the newer QBs)

Of those, 7 (39%) were Super Bowl Champions, and they combined for 14 Super Bowls total.

They combined for a .461 Win Pct.

9 out of 18 (50%) had career win percentages over .500

[Newest additions - C.Newton (.500) and A.Luck (.655)]

Of the names, you could easily consider 6 out of 18 complete busts, and

there are 3 others on the bubble (Palmer, Stafford, Bradford), but

overall 50% were solid draft picks, and again 7 won Super Bowls

 

[The Gipper]

Ah, I would say that a player taken in the supplemental draft is still a drafted player....like Bernie Kosar and Josh Gordon. The Browns did have to give up corresponding picks in the regular draft in order to take these guys in the Supp draft...as was the same with Steve Young. So I don't agree with your premise there.

That is unlike Warner who was a UFA. (like Tony Romo too).

[Tour2ma]

First off, I have too much time on my hands currently...

 

Well at least you're staying out of trouble...

 

When will we see the histograms?

[thenew23]

 

Well at least you're staying out of trouble...

 

When will we see the histograms?

working on them... lol

[thenew23]

Ah, I would say that a player taken in the supplemental draft is still a drafted player....like Bernie Kosar and Josh Gordon. The Browns did have to give up corresponding picks in the regular draft in order to take these guys in the Supp draft...as was the same with Steve Young. So I don't agree with your premise there.

That is unlike Warner who was a UFA. (like Tony Romo too).

I agree. Hard to quantify his "overall" draft position though...

[DieHardBrownsFan]

 

Well at least you're staying out of trouble...

 

When will we see the histograms?

Histograms? You should be fishing or whatever them gay Texans do.

[thenew23]

I'd say, if we were willing to trade up to #1 to draft Bridgewater, history says we'd have about a 50-50 chance of getting a good-to-great QB...

Do you like those odds??

 

P.S. There are only 2 better bets in a casino (trivia question)... not sure how big of gamblers you all are...

[Suomi]

I'd say, if we were willing to trade up to #1 to draft Bridgewater, history says we'd have about a 50-50 chance of getting a good-to-great QB...

Do you like those odds??

 

P.S. There are only 2 better bets in a casino (trivia question)... not sure how big of gamblers you all are...

 

Craps: 1. Don't Pass Line; 2. Pass Line

[miktoxic]

always bet on black.

[The Gipper]

I'd say, if we were willing to trade up to #1 to draft Bridgewater, history says we'd have about a 50-50 chance of getting a good-to-great QB...

Do you like those odds??

 

P.S. There are only 2 better bets in a casino (trivia question)... not sure how big of gamblers you all are...

The best bet in a casino is that the buffet will be loaded with MSG.

[alwardc4]

 

Craps: 1. Don't Pass Line; 2. Pass Line

No. Behind the pass line

[alwardc4]

I'd say, if we were willing to trade up to #1 to draft Bridgewater, history says we'd have about a 50-50 chance of getting a good-to-great QB...

Do you like those odds??

 

P.S. There are only 2 better bets in a casino (trivia question)... not sure how big of gamblers you all are...

Love those odds.

 

I wonder what it will take to move up to 1. Both first rounders + what else?

[Flyin J]

Mel Kiper said on Mike and Mike that he thinks 4 QB's could go 1st round but he wouldn't pick any top 5. He said there are no surefire can't miss franchise QB's. And that includes Bridgewater.

[The Gipper]

Mel Kiper said on Mike and Mike that he thinks 4 QB's could go 1st round but he wouldn't pick any top 5. He said there are no surefire can't miss franchise QB's. And that includes Bridgewater.

And I think that is why it may be appropriate to just stand pat. Take a QB sure....but get other help for other areas with our plethora of picks.

[thenew23]

Mel Kiper said on Mike and Mike that he thinks 4 QB's could go 1st round but he wouldn't pick any top 5. He said there are no surefire can't miss franchise QB's. And that includes Bridgewater.

Just because they may not be worth a top 5 pick, doesn't mean they won't get drafted in the top 5. I'd hate to be the team left in the cold without any of those 4 QBs...

[thenew23]

And I think that is why it may be appropriate to just stand pat. Take a QB sure....but get other help for other areas with our plethora of picks.

 

Quarterback IS the area of help needed... that is it!! Every year after about week 6, it's the same story "If the Browns could find their QB..." or "Once they figure out this QB situation..."

 

With quality QB play, this team is already a playoff team... and as history has shown, all you have to do is get into the playoffs...

 

"Stand pat"... sure. But, like I said above, if we get stuck with the 1 out of 4 we don't like, or we don't get any of those 4... we have the egg on our face AGAIN...

 

There will be no better year to improve that position, unless we take a serious nose dive (on purpose) to get the #1 pick. QBs just don't "show up" and if I'm wrong I'll eat it, but we NEED to be aggressive and get OUR guy...

 

Look at the figures above... Where are great QBs drafted???? Pretty simple to me...

[alwardc4]

 

Quarterback IS the area of help needed... that is it!! Every year after about week 6, it's the same story "If the Browns could find their QB..." or "Once they figure out this QB situation..."

 

With quality QB play, this team is already a playoff team... and as history has shown, all you have to do is get into the playoffs...

 

"Stand pat"... sure. But, like I said above, if we get stuck with the 1 out of 4 we don't like, or we don't get any of those 4... we have the egg on our face AGAIN...

 

There will be no better year to improve that position, unless we take a serious nose dive (on purpose) to get the #1 pick. QBs just don't "show up" and if I'm wrong I'll eat it, but we NEED to be aggressive and get OUR guy...

 

Look at the figures above... Where are great QBs drafted???? Pretty simple to me...

 

Completely agree.

[thenew23]

The 2 best bets...

 

1 - Craps - "The Odds" bet on a 6 or 8. Player advantage .5%

 

2 - Blackjack - When counting cards, if the "true count" reaches 4 or higher, player can gain up to a 1% advantage.

[The Gipper]

 

Quarterback IS the area of help needed... that is it!! Every year after about week 6, it's the same story "If the Browns could find their QB..." or "Once they figure out this QB situation..."

 

With quality QB play, this team is already a playoff team... and as history has shown, all you have to do is get into the playoffs...

 

"Stand pat"... sure. But, like I said above, if we get stuck with the 1 out of 4 we don't like, or we don't get any of those 4... we have the egg on our face AGAIN...

 

There will be no better year to improve that position, unless we take a serious nose dive (on purpose) to get the #1 pick. QBs just don't "show up" and if I'm wrong I'll eat it, but we NEED to be aggressive and get OUR guy...

 

Look at the figures above... Where are great QBs drafted???? Pretty simple to me...

I agree that the QB position is the priority.....what is clearly not obvious is whether or not the guy taken #1 overall in this draft may be clearly better than the guy taken at #15 or #21. It is that kind of jumbled up situation with these QBs coming out.

There are plenty of incidents where perhaps the lower selected QB is the superior QB:

 

Is RGIII #2 going to be better than Tannehill #8? too soon to tell

 

Is Ryan #3 better than Flacco #18? I would now say no apparently

 

Were Vince Young #3 and Matt Leinert #10 better than Cutler #11. Clearly not

 

Was Alex Smith #1 better than Aaron Rodgers #24. Clearly not

 

Were Eli or Rivers better than Roethlisberger? Arguably not

 

Was Couch better than McNabb? No

 

Was Shuler better than Dilfer? NO

 

So, getting what may be perceived as only the second/third best QB of the bunch may in fact turn out to be a good thing.

[Osiris]

Love those odds.

 

I wonder what it will take to move up to 1. Both first rounders + what else?

 

I would give up both first rounders and a 3rd round pick to move up to #1.

[USFBrown]

I agree that the QB position is the priority.....what is clearly not obvious is whether or not the guy taken #1 overall in this draft may be clearly better than the guy taken at #15 or #21. It is that kind of jumbled up situation with these QBs coming out.

There are plenty of incidents where perhaps the lower selected QB is the superior QB:

 

Is RGIII #2 going to be better than Tannehill #8? too soon to tell

 

Is Ryan #3 better than Flacco #18? I would now say no apparently

 

Were Vince Young #3 and Matt Leinert #10 better than Cutler #11. Clearly not

 

Was Alex Smith #1 better than Aaron Rodgers #24. Clearly not

 

Were Eli or Rivers better than Roethlisberger? Arguably not

 

Was Couch better than McNabb? No

 

Was Shuler better than Dilfer? NO

 

So, getting what may be perceived as only the second/third best QB of the bunch may in fact turn out to be a good thing.

 

Correctomundo. It's best to have more picks in order to have a higher chance of picking a play maker. The draft is a crap shoot. I'd prefer to be loaded with picks on the shoot instead of slimming them down for a hopeful savior.

[alwardc4]

Of course there are years where the first QB taken isnt the best one.

 

I dont think its all that jumbled. Bridgewater rates #1 QB on just about anything I have seen. He is clearly the most likely QB to be a stud.

[alwardc4]

Lets take a look at the 10 best QBs in the game: Manning, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Luck, Wilson, Newton, Romo, Stafford, and Big Rape

 

You may disagree with a few on the list but whatever.

 

Now think about how good their teams are without them. Its easy for Green Bay because we have this season as proof. They are contenders with Rodgers and dog crap without him. Each QB on the list is worth roughly 5 wins above the back up. So Denver goes from something like 13-3 with Manning to 8-8 without him.

 

You dont a five win increase by adding a WR or an ILB.

 

I will take an offense of Peyton Manning + 10 average players over an offense of Hoyer + 5 All pros + 5 average players.

[alwardc4]

Taking it further lets look at Bridgewater.

 

Lets say he is 40% to be a top ten QB and we'll say its worth 4-5 wins

 

40% to be in the 11-20 range and worth 1-3 wins.

 

20% bust.

 

Seems like its easily worth 3-4 picks to trade up for that value.

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

Taking it further lets look at Bridgewater.

 

Lets say he is 40% to be a top ten QB and we'll say its worth 4-5 wins

 

40% to be in the 11-20 range and worth 1-3 wins.

 

20% bust.

 

Seems like its easily worth 3-4 picks to trade up for that value.

 

Except those are just figures you have pulled out of your ass.

 

If we're rashly generalizing then, statistically speaking, there is an equal percentage for all outcomes. His draft position, past accomplishments, measureables have nothing to do with his future success.

 

There is an equal 33.3% chance of him being a great NFL player, a 33.3% chance of him being a mediocre player, and a 33.3% chance of him being a bust.

 

Bridgewater is the consensus #1 in this draft. In last year's draft, he's the third or even fourth best QB. In next year's draft, he may be the second best or the twelfth best. It's all relative.

 

Here's a list of all first round QB's to start this season, along with their draft position and whether or not they were part of a trade up.

 

http://factoryofsadness.sportsblog.com/posts/217092/mortgaging_your_future_is_it.html

 

Looking back at the data, you tell me whether or not it's worth it to trade up and take a QB, especially in this year's draft class.

[The Gipper]

1 2012 1 1 Andrew Luck QB IND 2012 2013 0 0 2 13 28 28 19-9-0 582 1045 7167 38 26 110 559 9 Stanford

 

2011 1 1 Cam Newton QB CAR 2011 2013 0 0 3 34 44 44 22-22-0 816 1368 10536 59 40 335 1894 28 Auburn 3

 

2010 1 1 Sam Bradford QB STL 2010 2013 0 0 4 20 49 49 18-30-1 1032 1760 11065 59 38 97 247 2 Oklahoma 4

 

2009 1 1 Matthew Stafford QB DET 2009 2013 0 0 4 33 57 56 24-33-0 1410 2363 16632 107 68 109 385 9 Georgia 5

 

2007 1 1 JaMarcus Russell QB OAK 2007 2009 0 0 2 6 31 25 7-18-0 354 680 4083 18 23 40 175 1 LSU 6

 

2005 1 1 Alex Smith QB SFO 2005 2013 0 0 9 36 92 87 47-39-1 1551 2617 17016 97 69 276 1121 5 Utah 7

 

2004 1 1 Eli Manning QB SDG 2004 2013 0 2 9 85 149 147 83-64-0 2858 4879 34522 226 162 229 433 4 Mississippi 8

 

2003 1 1 Carson Palmer QB CIN 2004 2013 0 2 9 81 134 133 61-72-0 2842 4546 32654 208 147 231 381 7 USC 9

 

2002 1 1 David Carr QB HOU 2002 2012 0 0 5 44 94 79 23-56-0 1353 2267 14452 65 71 305 1328 9 Fresno St. 10

 

2001 1 1 Michael Vick QB ATL 2001 2013 0 4 8 88 127 108 58-48-1 1703 3030 21489 128 85 825 5859 36 Virginia Tech 11

 

1999 1 1 Tim Couch QB CLE 1999 2003 0 0 3 30 62 59 22-37-0 1025 1714 11131 64 67 124 556 2 Kentucky 12

 

1998 1 1 Peyton Manning QB IND 1998 2013 5 11 15 165 236 236 164-72-0 5409 8273 63612 477 218 398 698 18 Tennessee 13

 

1993 1 1 Drew Bledsoe QB NWE 1993 2006 0 4 12 103 194 193 98-95-0 3839 6717 44611 251 206 385 764 10 Washington St. 14

 

1990 1 1 Jeff George QB IND 1990 2001 0 0 9 65 131 124 46-78-0 2298 3967 27602 154 113 168 307 2 Illinois 15

 

1989 1 1 Troy Aikman HOF QB DAL 1989 2000 0 6 12 97 165 165 94-71-0 2898 4715 32942 165 141 327 1016 9 UCLA 16

 

1987 1 1 Vinny Testaverde QB TAM 1987 2007 0 2 15 97 233 214 90-123-1 3787 6701 46233 275 267 430 1661 15 Miami (FL) 17

 

1983 1 1 John Elway HOF QB BAL 1983 1998 0 9 16 138 234 231 148-82-1 4123 7250 51475 300 226 774 3407 33 Stanford 18

 

1975 1 1 Steve Bartkowski QB ATL 1975 1986 0 2 10 70 129 127 59-68-0 1932 3456 24124 156 144 178 239 11 California 19

 

1971 1 1 Jim Plunkett QB NWE 1971 1986 0 0 10 85 157 144 72-72-0 1943 3701 25882 164 198 323 1337 14 Stanford 20

 

1970 1 1 Terry Bradshaw HOF QB PIT 1970 1983 1 3 13 106 168 158 107-51-0 2025 3901 27989 212 210 444 2257 32 Louisiana Tech 21

 

1965 1 1 Joe Namath HOF QB NYJ 1965 1977 1 5 9 94 140 130 62-63-4 1886 3762 27663 173 220 71 140 7 Alabama 22

 

1964 1 1 Jack Concannon QB BOS 1964 1975 0 0 3 26 90 46 20-24-1 560 1110 6270 36 63 217 1026 12 Boston Col. 23

 

1963 1 1 Terry Baker QB RAM 1963 1965 0 0 0 6 18 1 0-1-0 12 21 154 0 4 58 210 1 Oregon St. 24

 

1962 1 1 Roman Gabriel QB OAK 1962 1977 1 4 12 98 183 157 86-64-7 2366 4498 29444 201 149 358 1304 30 North Carolina St. 25

 

1959 1 1 Randy Duncan QB GNB 1961 1961 0 0 0 2 14 2 1-1-0 25 67 361 1 3 5 42 0 Iowa 26

 

1958 1 1 King Hill QB CRD 1958 1969 0 0 6 27 123 29 7-22-1 429 881 5553 37 71 88 308 9 Rice 27

 

1955 1 1 George Shaw QB BAL 1955 1962 0 0 1 28 71 29 11-16-2 405 802 5829 41 63 130 431 6 Oregon 28

 

1954 1 1 Bobby Garrett QB CLE 1954 1954 0 0 0 1 9 0 15 30 143 0 1 1 -3 0 Stanford 29

 

1952 1 1 Billy Wade QB RAM 1954 1966 0 2 8 74 128 85 40-43-2 1370 2523 18530 124 134 318 1334 24 Vanderbilt 30

 

1948 1 1 Harry Gilmer QB WAS 1948 1956 0 2 1 22 76 13 0-10-0 263 579 3786 23 45 201 923 1 Alabama

 

Misc Games Passing Rushing Rk Year Rnd Pick Player Pos Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV G GS QBrec Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD College/Univ 31

 

1946 1 1 Boley Dancewicz QB BOS 1946 1948 0 0 1 0 23 2 96 238 1551 12 29 65 229 2 Notre Dame 32

 

1944 1 1 Angelo Bertelli QB BOS 1946 1948 0 0 0 0 16 5 76 166 972 8 19 14 -15 1

[The Gipper]

To boil down a bit what you see above, these are the #1 overall QB picks in histoy.

A. The very least productive QB ever taken #1 over all was Bobby Garrett by the Cleveland Browns in 1954

B. Since 1964 when the injury plagued Jack Concannon was taken by the AFL Patriots, the least productive #1 pick taken has been Jamarcus Russell by the Raiders. #2 on that list is Tim Couch taken by the Browns.

[jcam222]

 

I would give up both first rounders and a 3rd round pick to move up to #1.

Not in a million years would I do that in this draft. If Luck was there you bet your ass I would. Thus far there is no candidate that is clearly head and shoulders above the rest and guaranteed NFL ready. As it stands now we are far better off to take someone with our 2nd 1st rounder or our 2nd round pick. There should be a very good prospect available there. Our first round pick will be high enough that if someone we love drops in our lap we can take him. I do not want to see us take another high pick, rush him in because management feels obligated to play a high pick and ruin another kid.

[miktoxic]

ugh. another one of these threads.

 

can't we just all bunch them together with the title desperate gay QB fans new draft possibilities.

 

or just open the tavern on thursday nites, the nite of the .05 cent moustache rides?

[Osiris]

Not in a million years would I do that in this draft. If Luck was there you bet your ass I would. Thus far there is no candidate that is clearly head and shoulders above the rest and guaranteed NFL ready. As it stands now we are far better off to take someone with our 2nd 1st rounder or our 2nd round pick. There should be a very good prospect available there. Our first round pick will be high enough that if someone we love drops in our lap we can take him. I do not want to see us take another high pick, rush him in because management feels obligated to play a high pick and ruin another kid.

 

I've seen plenty of people compare Bridgewater to Luck. Whether the comparison is legit or not, I don't know, but the reason I like him so much has nothing to do with his arm and everything to do with his brain. In my opinion the team more than enough resources between salary cap and picks to be able to afford to move up to try and snag Bridgewater. If it didn't happen, though, I'd be perfectly find with picking Carr with our first pick if available, and if not, picking Watkins and then using the second 1st rounder, a second round pick, or third for the QB and let him sit behind Hoyer.