Mel Kiper NFL Mock 1.0

[Spectralcow]

But the second try was just a waste of time if the RB picked there doesn't produce. In fact, if the RB picked there doesn't break some Browns rookie rushing records, it's a downgrade.

 

People often mistake this. I'm not saying that Richardson was good or that this trade can't or won't work out in the Browns' favor. The only thing I ever try to point out in this discussion is that there is the possibility that whatever/whomever is picked with that pick MAY not prove to be more helpful to the Browns than Richardson was. So, before we declare it a "good trade" or "genius move", let's wait and see how it turns out. We know what we had, now let's wait and see what we get.

[jcam222]

I think Bortles v Bridgewater could come down to testing and combines. I would want to get into their heads and compare that.

I agree. In addition that decision will be influenced by the coach / OC they bring in and the type of offense they run.

Hyde in the first round is insane. There are a couple at least I would take over him but most of them should be abvailable in the 2nd and even 3rd round.

[TopDawg31]

Still too early for mocks.

 

I disagree with him about manziel but whatev.

 

I'd like to get Dennard from msu somehow tho.

we would have to take dennard with the 4 pick or forget about getting him. He will be gone before 26.

[Tour2ma]

I'm not saying that Richardson was good or that this trade can't or won't work out in the Browns' favor. The only thing I ever try to point out in this discussion is that there is the possibility that whatever/whomever is picked with that pick MAY not prove to be more helpful to the Browns than Richardson was. So, before we declare it a "good trade" or "genius move", let's wait and see how it turns out. We know what we had, now let's wait and see what we get.

 

OK... but you have to admit the odds are in our favor...

[PoeticG]

I've figured it out. Take Watkins at 4. Get Derek Carr, even if you have to slightly trade up to do it. Take Seastrunk in the second round, he's an explosive runner. Take Dixon, S in the third and then take Hyde to play FB/HB. Golden.

[Spectralcow]

Depends on how you look at it, I guess. If we're going by "all first round picks ever picked", then yeah, a lot of guys end up contributing. If we're going by recent Browns first round picks... now the odds are a little slimmer.

[bbedward]

Depends on how you look at it, I guess. If we're going by "all first round picks ever picked", then yeah, a lot of guys end up contributing. If we're going by recent Browns first round picks... now the odds are a little slimmer.

I mean, I'm sure the colts would happily take the 26 pick back for TR. They'd probably include their 2nd too.

 

TR is one of those recent browns picks you describe. My bet is we go for a WR at 26, maybe a guard anyway. Mel Kipper is crazy for thinking we go rb at 26 anyway.

[Spectralcow]

Right, and that was my original point. Taking a RB at #26 is kind of inviting disaster now. No one would happier than me if the Browns took some player that ended up contributing at literally ANY position. I completely hope that they do. I just think that people tend to look at the words "[future] first round pick" and think "we're going to get a great player with that!" And that is entirely possible. Maybe it is even probable. But it is not guaranteed. A future first round pick has just as much chance of ending in a bust as a past first round pick did.

[Westside Steve]

I would love it if Carlos Hyde turned out to be Adrian Peterson and we got him at the bottom of the first round.

But I don't think anyone is comparing him to a second coming of jim brown. I wouldn't mind having Johnny Manziel at 4 since I believe is upside could be spectacular. But more often than not Heisman quarterbacks fail.

WSS

WSS

[Zombo]

I would love it if Carlos Hyde turned out to be Adrian Peterson and we got him at the bottom of the first round.

But I don't think anyone is comparing him to a second coming of jim brown. I wouldn't mind having Johnny Manziel at 4 since I believe is upside could be spectacular. But more often than not Heisman quarterbacks fail.

WSS

WSS

 

Manziel and Hyde with a tough defensive coach sounds great.

 

I can see Johnny scrambling for time and finding Gordon running deep with 5 yards on his man.

 

I'm ready for football season! What's that ... it's not over? Well hurry up and get it over so we start all over with new hope again!

 

Zombo

[BigGayKev]

Question, if the Steelers are "fags" as posted with our pick, what does that make the Browns? .

[Flyin J]

Question, if the Steelers are "fags" as posted with our pick, what does that make the Browns? .

Not Fags.

[Clevfan4life]

Anyone associated with ESPN has no meaning to me at all. They have their own agenda and these draft gurus are paid to bring interest to certain players.

 

THIS^^^

 

 

I fucking hate Mel Kiper...god that guy is such dbag. All these mock draft fgts have me wanting to punch them in the face. Months and months of "guru's" literally blowing it out their asses. It's like kibble they dole out every other week to the drooling mass of fans from irrelevant teams who are perpetually picking high. They usually don't have their 1.0's out before the SB so expect there to be a Kiper 14.0 by draft time.

[jrb12711]

 

THIS^^^

 

 

I fucking hate Mel Kiper...god that guy is such dbag. All these mock draft fgts have me wanting to punch them in the face. Months and months of "guru's" literally blowing it out their asses. It's like kibble they dole out every other week to the drooling mass of fans from irrelevant teams who are perpetually picking high. They usually don't have their 1.0's out before the SB so expect there to be a Kiper 14.0 by draft time.

Eh, I don't really like or dislike the guy as much as any other draft 'guru'. People want mock drafts as early as possible and that's what he tries to do. He just gets the most visibility so he takes the most heat for his bad predictions and player ratings. I think what a lot of people don't fully get is how protected NFL team's draft boards are and how hard it is to get information from a team about them. I watched a documentary where they interviewed formers GM's, evaluators etc and I recall one guy saying that it's the most safely guarded secret a team has. Sure occasional stuff leaks but I think it's a lot harder to truly know how teams rank players, positions etc. For example, take Geno Smith from last year. I'd say most reputable draft guys had him as the 1st/2nd rated QB and almost a sure thing to go in the 1st round and look what happened.

 

I think the biggest thing is just to take drafts up until a few weeks before with a grain of salt. All these guys are basically doing the same thing we are except they get paid to do it all day instead of a hobby.

[Spectralcow]

And that's kind of my problem with it. If it is so well guarded and there is no way for ANYONE to speak about it with any level of certainty, then why are these guys being paid? Well, because people want to hear what they have to say. Why do people want to hear what they have to say? Because they give people the impression that they have some sort of insight the rest of us don't have. Basically, it is dishonest to have it both ways. Either Mel Kiper and the rest of the experts know enough to formulate an educated guess, in which case we should listen to them, or they don't have any more clue than the rest of us and there's no point in listening to them. It doesn't make any sense to say, "Hey! Listen to me! I know what I'm talking about here!" and then, when you're proven utterly wrong, to say, "Well, there was no way I could have known. No one could."

[jrb12711]

And that's kind of my problem with it. If it is so well guarded and there is no way for ANYONE to speak about it with any level of certainty, then why are these guys being paid? Well, because people want to hear what they have to say. Why do people want to hear what they have to say? Because they give people the impression that they have some sort of insight the rest of us don't have. Basically, it is dishonest to have it both ways. Either Mel Kiper and the rest of the experts know enough to formulate an educated guess, in which case we should listen to them, or they don't have any more clue than the rest of us and there's no point in listening to them. It doesn't make any sense to say, "Hey! Listen to me! I know what I'm talking about here!" and then, when you're proven utterly wrong, to say, "Well, there was no way I could have known. No one could."

 

I do think they have much more of an educated guess because I'd hope they take the time to evaluate players based on film, interviews etc. Most people here including myself take our opinions from what others say and a few games we may have watched on TV of a guy. The only thing I'd say again is mock drafts are what people want and so naturally people are going to get paid to do them. It's the same reason Tebow is going to eventually be a lead person on ESPN like Ray Lewis (I'd bet my car on that). If it wasn't Kiper it'd be someone else and it will be once he retires.

[MasterDog]

So now we have a HC with a focus on defense, do we trade up for Downey? Or stay put and grab Barr?

[PoeticG]

We will take the best QB from the bunch and leave the bruised and stunted ones on the shelf.

 

Which means we will take Derek Carr, who will take us to the playoffs.

 

He has all the tools from which to draw from; he is mentally strong, has intelligence, a strong arm(a cannon), can make plays with his feet when needed but will give the pocket respect, he is accurate with his throws(gives the WR, and usually only the receiver a chance to make the play, throws it to where the receiver can make a play after the catch, puts good touch on his short throws and a zip on the quick ones) pretty much can flat out make all the throws, he doesn't come with all the hype of being the next R2D2 or Mike Vick, his brother was the number one overall draft pick at a relatively young age so he's grown up around the NFL and understands the business- he's not a young kid from the gutter with stars in his eyes.

 

I see the younger Carr, Derek doing great things in the future. Not saying that the other QB's will not have success, that would be foolish to pretend to know that, but in Derek Carr you have a young man that wants to be the best to ever play the position, a guy that will do the work needed- both in the classroom and on the field, both in practice and in games. He is our best chance, I believe, at QB.

 

He would also be a great understudy to a guy like Hoyer. Perfect match made in QB heaven IMO.

[MasterDog]

Derek Carr in early 2nd round?

6'3" with a rocket arm and learn from Hoyer who sat behind Tom Brady for 2 seasons.. Ya, i can dig that.

[miktoxic]

uh oh. derek carr is PoG's new TR.

 

RUN FOR THE HILLS!!

 

btw. mel kiper couldn't pick his ass from a hole in the ground.

[The Gipper]

uh oh. derek carr is PoG's new TR.

 

RUN FOR THE HILLS!!

 

btw. mel kiper couldn't pick his ass from a hole in the ground.

Mel is no better or worse than anyone else out there now doing the job that he essentially invented.

[MasterDog]

Mel Kiper Jr?

The same guy that called Manziel a 2nd round pick at BEST in October.

The same guy that rated Geno Smith a top 3 pick in last year's draft.

The same guy that rated B. Gabbert a top 5 pick in 2011 draft.

 

Take a look at this article and you'll see guys like McShady and Kiper might be no better than your cleaning lady.

 

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/05/25/equally-inaccurate-an-analysis-of-mel-kiper-jr-and-todd-mcshays-draft-rankings/

[The Gipper]

Mel Kiper Jr?

The same guy that called Manziel a 2nd round pick at BEST in October.

The same guy that rated Geno Smith a top 3 pick in last year's draft.

The same guy that rated B. Gabbert a top 5 pick in 2011 draft.

 

Take a look at this article and you'll see guys like McShady and Kiper might be no better than your cleaning lady.

 

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/05/25/equally-inaccurate-an-analysis-of-mel-kiper-jr-and-todd-mcshays-draft-rankings/

And if any single one of us tried doing their job our efforts would be absolutely no better than your cleaning lady either.

[Spectralcow]

Lol, I love (sarcastically) this argument. "You can't do a good job at the professional's job, so you shouldn't criticize him for being bad at it." WHAT?! That's insane. I can't do surgery better than my surgeon, but you best believe I'm going to sue if the guy maims and/or mangles me. The professional has an obligation to be good at his profession. Random people who work in other professions do not have an obligation to be good at the first guy's profession. The "you can't do any better" argument is completely bogus.

[jrb12711]

Lol, I love (sarcastically) this argument. "You can't do a good job at the professional's job, so you shouldn't criticize him for being bad at it." WHAT?! That's insane. I can't do surgery better than my surgeon, but you best believe I'm going to sue if the guy maims and/or mangles me. The professional has an obligation to be good at his profession. Random people who work in other professions do not have an obligation to be good at the first guy's profession. The "you can't do any better" argument is completely bogus.

 

That's really an apples to oranges argument. Surgeons have very precise, medical training that is factual in nature. Weather people are wrong half the time too, it doesn't mean they are bad at their job. Doing any sort of mock draft is extremely unpredictable, as well as scouting players. I'm not trying to say I have a love affair with the guy but you don't stay in the business as long as Kiper has by being bad at what you do. He's also in a crappy position where people only like to point out when he's wrong, when he's right a lot of the time too.

[The Gipper]

Lol, I love (sarcastically) this argument. "You can't do a good job at the professional's job, so you shouldn't criticize him for being bad at it." WHAT?! That's insane. I can't do surgery better than my surgeon, but you best believe I'm going to sue if the guy maims and/or mangles me. The professional has an obligation to be good at his profession. Random people who work in other professions do not have an obligation to be good at the first guy's profession. The "you can't do any better" argument is completely bogus.

OK, so: As far as I am concerned Mel Kiper is better at his job than anyone in America. So, does that satisfy your criteria?

[Spectralcow]

You're both missing my point. You didn't like the surgeon analogy? Okay, let's use one that is more equivalent, then, like the meteorologist one.

 

I work in field that deals with research and theory. In my field, when you're wrong, people point it out publicly and at great length. Even though it is a theoretical field, and there may be no way of knowing that one is wrong at the time a particular theory is offered, the people in that field are still held accountable and are subject to criticism when they are wrong. We accept this as one of the many expected aspects of our field. We all knew it coming in, and we chose to enter the field anyway, knowing that we would all probably someday be called out for theorizing something that later turned out to be wrong.

 

That's my point with guys in positions like Kiper's. Obviously, no one is going to always be right in his position. Obviously, he's right more often than your average lay person. However, that does not entitle him to be wrong about his predictions without fear of criticism. Being the target of and accepting criticism when your theories/predictions are proven wrong is a known part of the position he accepted. If anything, this makes it MORE acceptable to criticize him, not less.

 

When you work in a field that calls for you to make predictions or formulate theories, your predictions and theories are expected to be correct, even though there's a reasonable chance you could be mistaken. When those theories/predictions are not correct, you and/or your work may become the target of criticism. That is an inherent peril of those types of jobs. If you accept a position like that, it does indeed become "fair" for people who do not accept positions like that to criticize you for being incorrect.

[Flyin J]

Its not Kaylies

[jrb12711]

You're both missing my point. You didn't like the surgeon analogy? Okay, let's use one that is more equivalent, then, like the meteorologist one.

 

I work in field that deals with research and theory. In my field, when you're wrong, people point it out publicly and at great length. Even though it is a theoretical field, and there may be no way of knowing that one is wrong at the time a particular theory is offered, the people in that field are still held accountable and are subject to criticism when they are wrong. We accept this as one of the many expected aspects of our field. We all knew it coming in, and we chose to enter the field anyway, knowing that we would all probably someday be called out for theorizing something that later turned out to be wrong.

 

That's my point with guys in positions like Kiper's. Obviously, no one is going to always be right in his position. Obviously, he's right more often than your average lay person. However, that does not entitle him to be wrong about his predictions without fear of criticism. Being the target of and accepting criticism when your theories/predictions are proven wrong is a known part of the position he accepted. If anything, this makes it MORE acceptable to criticize him, not less.

 

When you work in a field that calls for you to make predictions or formulate theories, your predictions and theories are expected to be correct, even though there's a reasonable chance you could be mistaken. When those theories/predictions are not correct, you and/or your work may become the target of criticism. That is an inherent peril of those types of jobs. If you accept a position like that, it does indeed become "fair" for people who do not accept positions like that to criticize you for being incorrect.

 

I don't disagree but I never said that he didn't deserve criticism to begin with, of course he does. But what you're missing is that Kiper's real job is to provide entertainment value to fans. I guarantee no NFL team listens to Kiper's draft and base their draft strategy around it. His real value to ESPN is to get on TV and make the viewers happy, which he's done well for 20+ years.

 

My personal favorite memory of Kiper is the year Clausen was drafted. He had such a boner for the guy and when it was obvious he was terrible Kiper looked like someone killed his dog.

[Spectralcow]

What? I don't follow. I didn't say anything (one way or the other) about NFL teams listening to Kiper or Kiper providing entertainment to fans. I said it was silly to say that you can't criticize someone who makes predictions for a living for being wrong, and I said that it was silly to support that argument by saying, "Well, YOU can't do better!" to someone who is not a professional forecaster on that topic.

 

I'm not missing Kiper's entertainment value; it just wasn't what we were discussing.