Bob806 Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/index.ssf/2014/02/picking_a_quarterback_in_the_t.html#incart_river_default Man we beat this QB stuff to death on here, but this is interesting reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clevfan4life Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 It's a sobering stat that the guys winning SB's are often late round picks but land on teams with a solid foundation on both sides of the ball. I don't want a qb with that 1st pick....not when we can't protect him for dick. Not when we can't put a "halfway' respectable running game behind him. Putting a kid out there on day one and basically saying the offense is all on you as his pocket predictably collapses in less than 2.5 seconds on almost every down....disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miktoxic Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 It's a sobering stat that the guys winning SB's are often late round picks but land on teams with a solid foundation on both sides of the ball. I don't want a qb with that 1st pick....not when we can't protect him for dick. Not when we can't put a "halfway' respectable running game behind him. Putting a kid out there on day one and basically saying the offense is all on you as his pocket predictably collapses in less than 2.5 seconds on almost every down....disaster. agree 1000%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westside Steve Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Can I get a fuckin' aye? WSS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Browns149 Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Kinda like Tim Couch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soju Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 this made me think a little different about how teams should be built for success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwardc4 Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 I like Pluto but that was a hack job. A lot of cherry picking going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHardBrownsFan Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 I don't know, I think that hoyer proved that a qood QB made the whole Offense look better. And we are 1000 percent better then when Couch was playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 I like Pluto but that was a hack job. A lot of cherry picking going on. I don't think it was a hack job. It was pure fact. Though, I will say this: I would like to go back a little further to analyze the situation. Lets go back and see who has gone to the SB in a longer period. In fact, here it is. These are the ONLY QBs taken in the First round of the draft since 1999 to take their team to a Super Bowl, win or lose: 1999 #2 Donovan McNabb 2003 #22 Rex Grossman 2004 #1 Eli Manning 2004 #11 Ben Roethlisberger 2005 #24 Aaron Rodgers 2008 #18 Joe Flacco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 OK, here are the Super Matchups of QBs in terms of where they were taken in the draft: 2013 Russell/ 3rd round vs. Peyton Manning/1st round 2012 Flacco/1st round vs. Kaepernick/2d round 2011 Eli Manning/1st round vs. Brady/6th round 2010 Rodgers/1st round vs. Roethlisberger/1st round 2009 Brees/2d round vs. Peyton Manning/1st round 2008 Roethlisberger/1st round vs. Warner UFA 2007 Eli Manning/1st round vs. Brady/6th round 2006 Peyton Manning/1st round vs. Grossman/1st round 2005 Roethlisbeger/1st round vs. Hasselbeck/6th round 2004 Brady/6th round vs. McNabb/1st round 2003 Brady/6th round vs. Delhomme UFA 2002 Brad Johnson/9th round vs. Gannon/4th round 2001 Brady/6th round vs. Warner UFA 2000 Dilfer/1st round vs. Collins/1st round Note: those in bold are QBs who were taken in the Top Ten picks of the draft Of the 28 starting SB QBs, 14, or exactly one-half have been 1st round picks. Of course, that means one-half have not been first round picks. Three were UFAs(counting Warner twice, Delhomme once) One was a 9th rounder....and they don't have 9 rounds any more. Six were 6th rounders (Brady 5 times, Hasselback once). One third rounder...Russell. Two second rounders....Brees/Kaepernick. Flacco at the 18th pick, Rodgers at the 24th, and Ben R. (3 times) at #11 are the only 1st round picks taken below #10 overall. One fourth rounder....Gannon. The games in italics are the only ones that match a 1st rounder vs. another first rounder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwardc4 Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Of course he uses facts. I did not argue otherwise. I said he was cherry picking. Do you understand what that means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbedward Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 If you went back in time you probably wouldn't take Collins/Dilfer/McNabb in the top 10 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwardc4 Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 If you went back in time you probably wouldn't take Collins/Dilfer/McNabb in the top 10 either. uhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Of course he uses facts. I did not argue otherwise. I said he was cherry picking. Do you understand what that means? Yes. It means you are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 If you went back in time you probably wouldn't take Collins/Dilfer/McNabb in the top 10 either. Given what was otherwise available in the years they came out I would likely disagree. At least about McNabb and Collins. McNabb had a near HOF career. And Collins had a very long and productive career and won a ton of games. Even Dilfer got a Super Bowl win. If you would guarantee me that the QB we take in the top ten of this next draft would get this team a Super Bowl win, I would take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Browns616 Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Okay this is kind of off topic but he was a former #1 pick. I was reading Evan Silva's (Rotoworld) tweets about Sam Bradford and the Browns. He was asking for Browns fan input on whether or not as a fan you would be happy if Cleveland traded a 3rd round pick for Sam Bradford and his $14.15mil contract. If you were to pick a QB in the draft with your #4 pick you could get (Carr or Manziel or Bortles or Bridgewater) + $7mil in future cap space (compared to Bradfords salary). What do you do? I just want to get some input from everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Okay this is kind of off topic but he was a former #1 pick. I was reading Evan Silva's (Rotoworld) tweets about Sam Bradford and the Browns. He was asking for Browns fan input on whether or not as a fan you would be happy if Cleveland traded a 3rd round pick for Sam Bradford and his $14.15mil contract. If you were to pick a QB in the draft with your #4 pick you could get (Carr or Manziel or Bortles or Bridgewater) + $7mil in future cap space (compared to Bradfords salary). What do you do? I just want to get some input from everyone I would rather take my chances with fresh blood than to go with Bradford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim Couch Pulls Out Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Fair point, Grossi. What he's forgetting to mention is the fact that the Seahawks, Ravens and 49ers built top defenses all the while having capable QB's handling the reigns in the meantime. The 49ers had 1st overall pick Alex Smith, who hasn't finished the season with a rating lower than 81 since 2007. They took Kaep as a project QB, tailored the offense to him and eased him in. He wasn't thrown to the wolves immediately. The Ravens had 3rd overall pick Steve McNair for two years, who's worst season rating of 73.9 is better than any rating Weeden has ever had. The Seahawks had a decently solid, established veteran in Hasselbeck when Carroll took over. Carroll then tried the Tarvaris Jackson experiment for a season, which yielded better results than anything the Browns have tried in the past 5 years. Then they shelled out big bucks for Flynn before striking gold on Wilson. It's not as if they just sat on their hands and waited for Wilson. The plan was for Flynn all along, Wilson was just a good value pick. What I'm trying to say is that the Seahawks and 49ers were able to field serviceable talent while building a solid team, and then either got lucky or eased in their QB's. The Ravens are the only applicable team in this situation, as Flacco was picked to be their guy from the get-go and was handed the reigns immediately. And he was still a mid-1st round pick. The Browns aren't and haven't been in that position. We've had garbage quarterbacking for the past decade. Our situation isn't like theirs. There's correlation, I guess. But no causation. Poor reporting, Grossi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 The bottom line is taking a QB in any draft position you plan to start is a risky proposition. If said QB fails it sets a franchise back 2-3 years if not more depending on the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Fair point, Grossi. What he's forgetting to mention is the fact that the Seahawks, Ravens and 49ers built top defenses all the while having capable QB's handling the reigns in the meantime. The 49ers had 1st overall pick Alex Smith, who hasn't finished the season with a rating lower than 81 since 2007. They took Kaep as a project QB, tailored the offense to him and eased him in. He wasn't thrown to the wolves immediately. The Ravens had 3rd overall pick Steve McNair for two years, who's worst season rating of 73.9 is better than any rating Weeden has ever had. The Seahawks had a decently solid, established veteran in Hasselbeck when Carroll took over. Carroll then tried the Tarvaris Jackson experiment for a season, which yielded better results than anything the Browns have tried in the past 5 years. Then they shelled out big bucks for Flynn before striking gold on Wilson. It's not as if they just sat on their hands and waited for Wilson. The plan was for Flynn all along, Wilson was just a good value pick. What I'm trying to say is that the Seahawks and 49ers were able to field serviceable talent while building a solid team, and then either got lucky or eased in their QB's. The Ravens are the only applicable team in this situation, as Flacco was picked to be their guy from the get-go and was handed the reigns immediately. And he was still a mid-1st round pick. The Browns aren't and haven't been in that position. We've had garbage quarterbacking for the past decade. Our situation isn't like theirs. There's correlation, I guess. But no causation. Poor reporting, Grossi. Absolutely. I have often said that we should build a very, very solid defense, offensive line/wr/rb set.....then have the QB be the cherry on top to complete the entire team. The prime example of this was the Steelers of the mid 2000s. They had their defense, offensive line and running game in prime condition when they took BR as their QB......who, though he really was NOT that good of a QB those first 2 years, was still capable enough not to lose games for them....and they went to finish 15-1 his rookie season and won the SB his 2d season. I mean, this team tried the opposite with Tim Couch......got the cherry, but then the sundae bowl was just filled with mud and gravel underneath. So what good was a cherry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwardc4 Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yes. It means you are wrong. This looks like a textbook example of cherry picking. Consider this list of names: • Andrew Luck (#1, 2012, Indianapolis). • Robert Griffin III (# 2, 2012, Washington). • Ryan Tannehill (# 8, 2012, Miami). • Cam Newton (#1, 2011, Carolina). • Jake Locker (#8, 2011, Tennessee). • Blaine Gabbert (#10, 2011, Jacksonville). • Sam Bradford (#1, 2010, St. Louis). • Matt Stafford (#1, 2009, Detroit). • Mark Sanchez (#5, 2009, Jets). • Matt Ryan (#3, 2008, Atlanta). This is a list of the the quarterbacks among the top 10 picks in the last six drafts. I made the list covering six years, because no quarterback was in the top 10 in 2013. What's the point? OK, answer this question: How many of those quarterbacks have played in a Super Bowl? That's right -- None. Here are 10 quarterbacks -- all top 10 draft picks since 2008 -- and not one has reached a Super Bowl. Granted, some have just entered the league in the last few years. But it's still revealing that none instantly turned around a franchise. He is pointing to a specific stat - 0 SB appearances from top 10 picks in the last six drafts. Then comes to that idiotic conclusion in the bold. Per wiki - I helped by adding the stuff in () and italics. Cherry picking, suppressing evidence, or the fallacy of incomplete evidence is the act of pointing to individual cases or data (SB appearances) that seem to confirm a particular position (watch out taking those risky top 10 QBs!!!), while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data (like other measures to indicate the franchise instantly turned around, e.i. wins, playoff appearances etc) that may contradict that position. It is a kind of fallacy of selective attention, the most common example of which is the confirmation bias. [1] Cherry picking may be committed intentionally or unintentionally. If you still think I am wrong, its cool. Figured I owed an explanation after those short posts. You are getting the last word if you want. I wont reply again. Peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwardc4 Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 I mean, this team tried the opposite with Tim Couch......got the cherry, but then the sundae bowl was just filled with mud and gravel underneath. So what good was a cherry. I hear ya there. Like the one stinking year I DIDNT want the Browns to take a QB top 10 is the year they did! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runyon27 Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 I don't think it was a hack job. It was pure fact. Though, I will say this: I would like to go back a little further to analyze the situation. Lets go back and see who has gone to the SB in a longer period. In fact, here it is. These are the ONLY QBs taken in the First round of the draft since 1999 to take their team to a Super Bowl, win or lose: 1999 #2 Donovan McNabb 2003 #22 Rex Grossman 2004 #1 Eli Manning 2004 #11 Ben Roethlisberger 2005 #24 Aaron Rodgers 2008 #18 Joe Flacco Well look at Super Bowls and almost every SB has a first round QB and most have 2 first round QBs playing. You are far more likely to find a SB caliber QB in the first round than any other round. Also the article states none of the recent QBs changed any of the franchises, which is incorrect I would say that Matt Ryan certainly helped changed the direction of that team. And the argument that our line is bad is overblown. Its middle of the pack and it has two Pro Bowlers on it. RG is a definite need, RT and LG are serviceable right now. Its not as bad as some make it out to be. I am not advocating for us to pick a QB with 4th pick. But I am arguing that you cannot pass up a QB who can get you to win games becuase maybe he is just the 8th player on your board or you have more holes to fill. If you believe there is a guy who can be a franchise guy you get him, period. Who the hell cares about the RG spot then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaak Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Of course he uses facts. I did not argue otherwise. I said he was cherry picking. Do you understand what that means? I'm sure he does, but I'm not sure you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 This looks like a textbook example of cherry picking. Consider this list of names: • Andrew Luck (#1, 2012, Indianapolis). • Robert Griffin III (# 2, 2012, Washington). • Ryan Tannehill (# 8, 2012, Miami). • Cam Newton (#1, 2011, Carolina). • Jake Locker (#8, 2011, Tennessee). • Blaine Gabbert (#10, 2011, Jacksonville). • Sam Bradford (#1, 2010, St. Louis). • Matt Stafford (#1, 2009, Detroit). • Mark Sanchez (#5, 2009, Jets). • Matt Ryan (#3, 2008, Atlanta). This is a list of the the quarterbacks among the top 10 picks in the last six drafts. I made the list covering six years, because no quarterback was in the top 10 in 2013. What's the point? OK, answer this question: How many of those quarterbacks have played in a Super Bowl? That's right -- None. Here are 10 quarterbacks -- all top 10 draft picks since 2008 -- and not one has reached a Super Bowl. Granted, some have just entered the league in the last few years. But it's still revealing that none instantly turned around a franchise. He is pointing to a specific stat - 0 SB appearances from top 10 picks in the last six drafts. Then comes to that idiotic conclusion in the bold. Per wiki - I helped by adding the stuff in () and italics. Cherry picking, suppressing evidence, or the fallacy of incomplete evidence is the act of pointing to individual cases or data (SB appearances) that seem to confirm a particular position (watch out taking those risky top 10 QBs!!!), while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data (like other measures to indicate the franchise instantly turned around, e.i. wins, playoff appearances etc) that may contradict that position. It is a kind of fallacy of selective attention, the most common example of which is the confirmation bias. [1] Cherry picking may be committed intentionally or unintentionally. If you still think I am wrong, its cool. Figured I owed an explanation after those short posts. You are getting the last word if you want. I wont reply again. Peace You are saying he is cherry picking by suppressing evidence or providing incomplete evidence. His premise was that NONE of these QBs took their teams to a SB...yet. That is a fact. That evidence is complete. That is what I am going on. Now, you may say that he is wrong about none of these QBs instantly turning a franchise around. Then I would say that you are right and he is wrong. Some of these QBs have definitely helped turn losing franchises into winning ones. Andrew Luck is the best example, but also Stafford, Ryan, and Cam Newton are turning losers into winners. But, his basic point is still accurate and complete.....none have taken their team to a Super Bowl. I think his ultimate point is this: Browns fans should not panic. If we don't get a QB at #4, or somewhere in the top 10, it is not the end of our potential Super Bowl hopes....as SB QBs have come from lower in the draft besides the Top 10. Flacco 18, Rodgers 24, BR at 11. And the point of my follow up is to confirm this. In this century, only 3 QBs who have been taken in the Top 10 of the draft who were not named Manning have taken a team to a Super Bowl. So, all I am saying is that it would not be the end of the world IMO to not take a QB in the top 10. We have about a 50/50 chance of getting a SB QB at some point later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Well look at Super Bowls and almost every SB has a first round QB and most have 2 first round QBs playing. NO, did you read my post? In ONLY 3 out of 14 SBs in this century have the SBs matched 2 first round QBs. I don't know your definition of most...but in my world 3 out of 14 is not most. You are far more likely to find a SB caliber QB in the first round than any other round. Again, no, you are not. Again, my post shows that. Of 28 starting QBs in the SB, only one-half were first round picks. That is 50%....and NOT "far more likely"....it is exactly even....but yes, it is more likely to get one in the first round than any other particular round...but not in all other rounds altogether. Also the article states none of the recent QBs changed any of the franchises, which is incorrect I would say that Matt Ryan certainly helped changed the direction of that team. I would agree with you here. See above, Luck, Ryan, Newton and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Let me make a certain matter clear....I am by NO means opposed to trying to get a franchise QB with our #4 pick. The Browns have tried the way of the lower first round to take QBs.....and that has fizzled badly.....see Quinn/Weeden. We have tried the 3rd round method. No soap. See Frye/McCoy. We have tried the "old winning veteran" approach. Dilfer/Garcia/Delhomme/Campbell....crapola. We have tried the trade route or pick up a young free agent: Anderson/Holcomb.....a few flashes at most there. So, OK, lets go back to the thing we only tried once in 30 years (Couch, since Kosar)......get a QB very high in the draft and hope he is the Coca Cola of QBs, i.e. The Real Thing. It is worth another shot. It may be 50/50 at best.....but we are batting about .000 since Kosar, so it is about time that the odds turned in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darren15 Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 When I seen this post I thought Mickey's dog was evaluating QB's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob806 Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Let me make a certain matter clear....I am by NO means opposed to trying to get a franchise QB with our #4 pick. The Browns have tried the way of the lower first round to take QBs.....and that has fizzled badly.....see Quinn/Weeden. We have tried the 3rd round method. No soap. See Frye/McCoy. We have tried the "old winning veteran" approach. Dilfer/Garcia/Delhomme/Campbell....crapola. We have tried the trade route or pick up a young free agent: Anderson/Holcomb.....a few flashes at most there. So, OK, lets go back to the thing we only tried once in 30 years (Couch, since Kosar)......get a QB very high in the draft and hope he is the Coca Cola of QBs, i.e. The Real Thing. It is worth another shot. It may be 50/50 at best.....but we are batting about .000 since Kosar, so it is about time that the odds turned in our favor. Yep, nothing has worked. our top 2 QBs in my (and most Browns fans') generation were Sipe (13th round), Kosar (supplemental pick). With our combination of stupid decisions, bad luck, etc., I would just stand pat and pick the top players the staff has rated on draft day(s). I'd take Watkins at 4, a MLB at 26, and Garrappolo at 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballpeen Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Of the 10 guys he points out, I'd take 7 of them. Pluto is an idiot if he is saying only guys to win a SB are good QBs. I'd take Andrew Luck in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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