Feb 2 McShay mock

[calfoxwc]

It's only the top 16 that I'm posting...

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http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft09/ins...%26id%3d3878507

 

Plenty of shuffling in latest mock

 

By Todd McShay

Scouts Inc.

 

The college all-star games have come and gone, and NFL prospects and teams are looking toward the upcoming combine. Individual workouts and combine showings certainly will affect the stock of many top prospects over the next few weeks, but enough questions have been answered for Scouts Inc. to present its first two-round mock draft of 2009. Here's how we see things shaking down at this point:

 

Note: * denotes junior; ** denotes draft-eligible third-year sophomore

 

 

1. Detroit Lions (Record: 0-16): Matthew Stafford*, QB, Georgia

Yes, his inconsistency can be frustrating, his footwork needs polishing and he must learn to take some heat off his fastball when throwing underneath. But after studying the game tape of the entire 2009 quarterback class, it's clear to us that Stafford is the top dog. His combination of accuracy, arm strength, surprising mobility and experience in a pro-style offense (in the SEC) is second to none.

 

Here's the catch-22 for the Lions, though: Although they need a franchise quarterback and there isn't enough depth in this year's class to feel good about the chances of finding one 19 picks later, Stafford does not grade out as highly as Matt Ryan did a year ago, and eight of the past 11 underclassman quarterbacks drafted in the first round have either failed to meet expectations or been outright busts. This is the type of franchise-defining decision that could make or break the career of new general manager Martin Mayhew.

 

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2. St. Louis Rams (2-14): Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

The Rams desperately need to upgrade their offensive front, and Jason Smith, Andre Smith and Eugene Monroe will be in the discussion. Don't be surprised if the senior from Baylor wins out on potential. He is a converted tight end and has the best feet of the group.

 

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3. Kansas City Chiefs (2-14): Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest

Tyler Thigpen might not be the long-term answer at quarterback for the Chiefs, but it's hard to imagine new GM Scott Pioli veering from the "Patriot way" he learned during his time in New England. Drafting a defensive lineman such as DE Everette Brown or DT B.J. Raji is a possibility, and beefing up the offensive line isn't out of the question, either. But the Chiefs spent a pair of first-round picks on those spots last year, and Pioli hit a home run with the first-round pick of linebacker Jerod Mayo in New England last season. Plus, Curry has the versatility Pioli looks for, and he fits an area of need.

 

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4. Seattle Seahawks (4-12): B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College

Michael Crabtree appears to be the obvious selection for a Seahawks team in desperate need of a playmaker at wide receiver, but Raji's stock is soaring after his dominant showing at the Senior Bowl, and a top priority for the Seahawks this offseason is to find a difference-maker at defensive tackle.

 

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5. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Everette Brown*, DE, Florida State

Brown's pass-rushing skills would be a welcome addition to a Cleveland defense that notched only 17 sacks in 2008.

 

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6. Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1): Andre Smith*, OT, Alabama

The Bengals need to solidify their offensive line. RT Stacy Andrews took a step backward before his knee injury, and Smith is a good fit to step in immediately as a starter on the right side.

 

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7. Oakland Raiders (5-11): Michael Crabtree**, WR, Texas Tech

Crabtree has Larry Fitzgerald-type potential. Although his 40-yard dash time might not excite owner Al Davis, even Davis is capable of recognizing the opportunity to select the best athlete in the draft at No. 7.

 

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8. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

WR/RS Jeremy Maclin's speed and game-breaking skills would be enticing here. However, the Jags need to find an upgrade over Khalif Barnes at left tackle, and Monroe has the feet and pass-blocking skills to eventually provide that.

 

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9. Green Bay Packers (6-10): Malcolm Jenkins, DB, Ohio State

The Packers' secondary is aging. Jenkins isn't an ideal fit from a man-to-man cover corner perspective, but his versatility and playmaking skills make him the most complete defensive back in the 2009 class.

 

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10. San Francisco 49ers (7-9): Jeremy Maclin**, WR/RS, Missouri

QB Mark Sanchez will be in the discussion, but can the 49ers afford to spend another high first-round pick on a quarterback who has only 16 collegiate starts under his belt? That's just not good business. Assuming they go in a different direction, Maclin would be high on the list because he's one of only a few individuals in this year's draft capable of providing the home-run-hitting ability the Niners lack on the perimeter.

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11. Buffalo Bills (7-9): Aaron Maybin**, DE/OLB, Penn State

TE Brandon Pettigrew is an obvious possibility, but the Bills are looking to improve the edges of their defensive front, and Maybin's upside as a pass-rusher is huge. In the Bills' 4-3 defense, Maybin would fit best at SAM linebacker but also could serve as a situational edge rusher, help that DEs Chris Kelsay and Aaron Schobel need.

 

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12. Denver Broncos (8-8): Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC

The Broncos need to beef up their run defense after finishing 30th in the NFL in 2007 and 27th in 2008. Maualuga plays out of control at times, but there isn't a linebacker in the 2009 class with a better size-speed combo, and he loves setting the tone physically.

 

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13. Washington Redskins (8-8): Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas

The Redskins could use this pick on an offensive lineman if the right one falls this far, but in this scenario Orakpo makes the most sense because he can provide some youth at defensive end or outside linebacker. Most importantly, he has the burst and athleticism to make an immediate impact rushing the passer, which is critical in the NFC East.

 

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14. New Orleans Saints (8-8): Vontae Davis*, CB, Illinois

The Saints should continue to focus on defense this year. Davis is a bit of a risk, considering he comes with a reputation for inconsistency and questionable work habits. However, there isn't a cornerback in this year's class with better pure man-to-man cover skills. That's a gamble New Orleans might be willing to make at No. 14, especially after watching its defense surrender 53 plays of 20-plus yards last season.

 

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15. Houston Texans (8-8): Brian Cushing, OLB, USC

Cushing is a gifted athlete with a reckless approach. He flies around looking to make the big hit, and he also provides a lot of versatility in the passing game. He eventually could develop into an upgrade over Zac Diles at SAM linebacker, and initially he could help boost a pass rush that ranked 27th in the league last season with 25 sacks.

 

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16. San Diego Chargers (8-8): Chris Wells*, RB, Ohio State

Let's preface this by saying we would take Knowshon Moreno (Georgia) over Wells if presented with the choice. However, we understand that's a minority opinion. Plus, in San Diego's situation, Wells appears to be a better complement to pint-size scatback Darren Sproles. Remember, though, that the team has some tough de

[calfoxwc]

I read where Curry "may" have trouble with one on one blocking in the NFL.

 

And Orakpo is a muscle bound, quick monster...

 

But Everette Brown has the agility and tremendous burst AND power and balance...

 

he's nearly unstoppable. It's hard to even slow him down.

 

Once and for all, the Browns need a pass rush. And his character is outstanding.

 

but Raji is said to be very well able to play any postion on a 3-4 front.

 

That would also make a huge difference.

[Mr. T]

Drafting Everette Brown makes since. I would like to see our first 2 picks on defense, and then address a WR or RB

 

We need another pick somewhere in the first 2 rounds to be able to shore up the team needs.

[Guest Aloysius]

Not sure about Brown...just watched him get mostly handled by GTech's Andrew Gardner, a late round OT prospect. And here's a statistical representation of the inconsistent/disappears at times meme that Heck & JD have brought up:

 

Date         Opponent            Result      Sacks
09/06/08     Western Caro.       W 69-0      0.0
09/13/08     Chattanooga         W 46-7      2.0
09/20/08     Wake Forest         L 3-12      0.0
09/27/08     + Colorado          W 39-21     1.0
10/04/08     @ Miami (Fla.)      W 41-39     0.0
10/16/08     @ North Carolina St.W 26-17     0.0
10/25/08     15 Virginia Tech    W 30-20     3.0
11/01/08     @ 22 Georgia Tech   L 28-31     0.0
11/08/08     Clemson             W 41-27     3.0
11/15/08     Boston College      L 17-27     0.0
11/22/08     @ Maryland          W 37-3      3.5
11/29/08     1 Florida           L 15-45     0.0
12/27/08     + Wisconsin         W 42-13     1.0

And if Brown measures in at 6'1 3/4", 252 lbs., he may not fit Mangini's physical profile of what a 3-4 OLB should look like. Here are the heights/weights of Mangini's big OLB acquisitions:

• 2006:
  • signed Bryan Thomas: 6'4", 266 lbs.
  2007:
  • signed David Bowens: 6'3", 265 lbs.
  2008:
  • signed Calvin Pace: 6'4", 270 lbs.
  • drafted Vernon Gholston: 6'3", 264 lbs.

[Guest Aloysius]

Love you, Al, but I don't think that added up to much. He spread his sacks out over the year and never went "cold" for long stretches... much like any pass rusher. Size wise, he's a taller James Harrison... and who's gonna slam that? Finally, those guys didn't do shit for Mangini.

James Harrison had sacks in 2/3 of his regular season games, DeMarcus Ware had sacks in all but 2 games.

 

By contrast, Brown had sacks in less than half of his games.

 

And you have to factor in the unevenness of college competition. He beat up on Chattanooga and Maryland, but he also got shut down by some decent/average teams. That's a bit disconcerting.

[WPB Dawg Fan]

I agree that we need a pass rusher...but let's not put the cart before the horse.

 

What I mean is...who cares if you can get a pass rush if you can't stop the run. If they can average 4.5/c running the ball...eventually your pass rushers have to start giving support to the run game...which takes them out of their pass rush schemes...which then allows the opponent to pass.

 

Conversely...if your ILB's are handling the run...then the OLB's are free to rush on every play...or drop back into coverage...without worrying about run support so much. And a DE will free up the OLB's from having to deal with the OT's...and allow them to go against TE's and/or RB's...which will improve their effectiveness greatly.

 

You need to stop the run first...which is why I think we need an ILB (or a run stopping DE) more than an OLB....at least TOP FLIGHT wise.

 

I really think Wimbley and Hall (Peek if he is around) will get a HUGE boost in their numbers and effectiveness if we can address the ILB/DE positions.

[ClevelandFanForLife]

i think that brown is a much better pick than maybin. remember the last time we took a penn state de in the first round? courtney brown was a great choice

[YtownBrownsBacker]

I certainly think Brown is the best pass rusher available for the defense we want to run. As far as bookends with Wimbley, who would be the SOLB and who would be the WOLB? I am one person that thinks Wimbley can still be a productive OLB in our 3-4 defense and definately feel he was vastly misused last year. I saw him drop into coverage more then I ever saw him rush the passer. So, I do think Wimbley has a lot of upside and it is the challenge of the new staff to get him on the right track. This kid hasn't forgot how to play football.

 

Him and Brown would be awesome and it would prevent the normal chips that kept Wimbley from getting to the QB and be devastating with Rogers coming up the middle.

 

I am 100% in agreement that we need to improve our pass rush which will vastly improve our secondary because the QB won't have all day to wait for a receiver to shake free.

 

I do have two concerns. Mangini stated that he believes the #1 priority of the defense is to stop the run. That means we certainly have a "must" fill/upgrade position in SILB. So if Curry is there do you take Brown or Curry? Second, if Curry isn't there, what is plan B for SOLB? Third, if Crabtree or one of the QBs is there and we have an opportunity to trade down and get another second round pick, do you do it and how far do you trade down?

 

My son who knows and works with some of the OBR guys in the media gave me a great rumor. At least 6 teams have contacted the Browns concerning their #5 pick and availability of Andeson. Best rumor is Philly, who has two first round picks, offering a first and a few others to move up to get Crabtree if they can't get Housyourmama in FA. Next SF wanting to trade up from 10 if Sanchez is still there, also what is the price for Anderson before his bonus of March 15th and after. Leinhart is the guy they want though.

 

Also inquiring are Minn, TB and the Bears. Chicago has multiple interests @ #5 and also some interest in Anderson. I'm sure a lot of this is just a feeling out process and other teams will be calling also, but the question remains; if your guy is there do you still trade down knowing we have multiple holes and needs?

 

Since it is real early and FA may change a lot, there are still a lot of questions and I'm sure many different opinions.

[Guest Aloysius]

He had his best games against Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Maryland, Alo. Huge games.

Clemson's o-line was a mess this year. 2 of his sacks in the Maryland came when he used his spin move against an unathletic LG. Haven't watched the VTech game, so I can't comment on it.

 

Just haven't seen him dominate an athletic, NFL-style LT. He was good against Wisconsin, but IIRC his sack came against Eric Vanden Heuvel, a slow OT who'd been battling a lower leg injury.

[Guest Aloysius]

I think you've fallen into mind-screw scouting, Alo. He's big, he's fast, he's quick, he has a motor, and he gets to the quarterback.

lol. I admire your ability to turn negatives into positives: he's short, so he's James Harrison; he wasn't consistently productive, but that's because he spreads out his sacks like a great pass-rusher. You must have been a pretty good ad guy.

 

By the way, Brown may have a great motor, but he was on the field for about 65% of defensive snaps (my guesstimation). Markus White subbed in for him a lot, which was frustrating because it made telling who was playing DE difficult - White's about the same size (6'4", 245 lbs.) and wears #98 (Brown's #99).

[JewDago]

surprise, surprise, i agree with alo. brown's maddeningly inconsistent and beats up on subpar competition but gets handled by guys who are good. orakpo, even with his health issues, will be the better pro, and would be my choice if we went OLB at five.

 

orakpo missed two and a half games with a knee injury this year, and he still did all this:

 

vs FAU: three tackles, a TFL and three pressures

UTEP: five tackles, two sacks and three pressures

rice: five tackes, two sacks, two pressures, two PBD and a forced fumble

arkansas: four tackles, two sacks, three TFL, a pressure and a forced fumble

colorado: two tackles and five pressures

oklahoma (#1 at the time): seven tackles, two sacks, four TFL, two pressures and a forced fumble

missouri (#11 at the time): a tackle and three pressures, one of which forced an INT

oklahoma state (#7 at the time): six tackles, a sack, two TFL and two pressures

texas tech (#6 at the time): two tackles, a TFL and two pressures, injured knee, DNP 2nd half

baylor: DNP

kansas: played very little

texas A&M: five tackles, 1.5 sacks, three TFL, four pressures and a forced fumble

ohio state (#10 at the time): two tackles, three pressures and a sack

 

that's 11.5 sacks spread out pretty evenly over 11 games to go with 14 TFL and 4 forced fumbles. orakpo is the far more consistent player, and that counts for a lot. it means he can take it to the competition no matter who he's facing and can win at least once a game, which is pretty much what great pass rushers can do.

 

the only concern i have is that texas players traditionally struggle once they leave austin. though it's not always true (guys like shaun rogers, casey hampton, aaron ross and roy williams (WR) have been just fine), there's a long list of notable texas busts: cedric benson, leonard davis, michael huff, bryant westbrook, mike williams (the OT, not the WR), ricky williams (who's good but nuts), and vince young have all failed to make the transition to the NFL. you could argue that young would always have failed. i would. but williams, to me, best sums up the problem: the guys can play but aren't mentally ready.

 

however, that shouldn't be a problem for a mean SOB with a motor like orakpo's. my main concern would be that some of his production was a product of the players around him, but teams seemed pretty focused on stopping him and not everyone else, but he still found ways to get to the QB.

 

for me, orakpo is the clear choice over brown.

[Guest Aloysius]

I'm really pissed he wasn't able to play in the Baylor game: Orakpo vs. Jason Smith would have been an epic matchup.

[Guest mz.]

I'm even more full of shit now than I was as an ad guy.

 

With the state of advertising as it is, I guess it makes sense that I'm trying to branch into your biz.

 

[calfoxwc]

Wait. Al, you talking about Everette Brown being too short? He's 6'4"... from most reports I have seen.

 

He has been streaky, but when your team is winning 69-0, the opposition qb isn't going to be taking

5 step drops... he's going to be throwing the ball some freakin where, FAST.

 

Plays going away from Brown, how many pressures?

 

Orakpo is a monster, he would be scary. And he is bigger weight wise... Everette looks trim at his interview.

 

I don't see Orakpo changing directions on cut backs and moves by the qb very easily.

 

He is a weight room freakin monster, but I wonder about his agility.

[Guest Aloysius]

Wait. Al, you talking about Everette Brown being too short? He's 6'4"... from most reports I have seen.

Todd McShay said that he's seen Brown standing next to 6'4" guys & Brown looks much shorter than them. His guess is that Brown will measure in at a little under 6'2".

[KardiacKid26]

If the Chiefs get Curry then i'd like to see the Browns get Brown or trade that pick and Derek Anderson and get a package of 3 or 4 picks.

[Snatch98]

Thanks for the post. Can you post the 2nd half of the mock or at least tell me who they have the Steelers drafting? Thanks.

[calfoxwc]

Sorry, I'm not a member of the insider to see the second half....

 

I'm not desperate enough for info this early to pay for it...

 

Odds are, he has the squeelers drafting an olineman...

[Guest Aloysius]

Here's a clip in which Kiper projects Brown to the Texans at #15, says he can play 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB.