DA to Lions Gaining Speed as well

[WPB Dawg Fan]

I had mentioned before the UNDERCLASSMAN QB thing...so here is an article from John Clayton talking all about it:

 

NFL teams wary of undergrad QBs

The top four-rated QBs this spring are skipping their senior collegiate seasons. History tells NFL teams to be wary of early-entry QB draft candidates, John Clayton writes.

 

INDIANAPOLIS -- The fascinating part of the 2009 NFL draft isn't just that the four top-rated quarterbacks are underclassmen. The fascinating part will be how quickly the NFL can accept four quarterbacks who skipped their senior seasons.

 

Judging college quarterbacks is harder than ever. The spread offense totally has changed the college game. Thanks to the spread, quarterbacks operate out of shotgun formation. They complete higher percentage passes to a more diverse group of receivers. Completion percentage is as much a byproduct of the scheme as it is the quarterback, because there aren't enough good corners to line up on the pass-catchers.

 

Most scouts agree there isn't a Matt Ryan in the 2009 draft, but many of those scouts downgraded him in the 2008 selection because his completion percentage dropped from 61.6 to 59.3 during his senior year. They failed to recognize the Boston College receiving crew simply wasn't good enough.

 

Ryan ended up winning 11 games as the Atlanta Falcons' rookie starter. He seems like the best quarterback prospect to come into the league since Peyton Manning in 1998.

 

Matthew Stafford of Georgia, Mark Sanchez of USC, Josh Freeman of Kansas State and Nate Davis of Ball State are the top quarterbacks being evaluated at the scouting combine that started this week in Indianapolis. The list of draft failures of quarterbacks who skipped their senior seasons is long and expensive.

 

Ryan Leaf heads the list. He was all-world coming out of Washington State, appearing to be another John Elway. His immaturity and unwillingness to adapt cost the San Diego Chargers millions, and sent fear into every franchise considering drafting a quarterback who didn't stay to play a senior season.

 

Tim Couch, Heath Shuler, Tommy Maddox and Andre Ware are just a few more of the names that send chills down scouts' spines as they contemplate Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman and Davis.

Davis, Freeman, SanchezIcon SMIBall State's Nate Davis (left), Kansas State's Josh Freeman (center) and USC's Mark Sanchez (right) hope to show NFL teams they have nothing to fear when investing in early-entry QBs.

 

The league was spoiled for a few years because there once was a trend among quarterbacks to play four collegiate seasons. Peyton Manning did it. His brother, Eli Manning, stayed. So did Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer and so many others.

 

Their loyalty and maturity made decision-making a little easier. Those quarterbacks who stay for a senior year polish their games. Their completion percentage improves dramatically, and NFL franchises aren't rushed into judgment. General managers set their scouts' agendas during the summer, and if they need quarterbacks they have a full fall to evaluate games, do proper interviewing and psychological testing. The NFL teams can watch the best quarterback prospects play against future pros in the East-West Shrine Game or the Senior Bowl.

 

Evaluating underclassmen is like cramming for a final in college. Underclassmen don't declare for the draft until mid-January. Then the clock starts. Scouts who were focused on seniors have to go back and study the tape on underclassmen entering the draft.

 

Teams have three months to make the most difficult decision a franchise must make. The ultimate success of a team is dependent on the play of its quarterback.

 

Thanks to the spread offense and the success of Ryan and Baltimore Ravens starter Joe Flacco as rookies, conventional wisdom is thrown out the window. The easiest transition was having the first-round quarterback sit during his rookie season. Carson Palmer and Steve McNair were success stories from franchises that resisted the temptation to rush prospects who entered the league as the highest-paid players on their team. Try talking an owner into investing a $60 million contract on a rookie who's going to carry a clipboard. It isn't easy.

 

Ryan and Flacco's successes threw organizational patience out the window. They led their teams to the playoffs as rookies, and under first-year head coaches, at that. Once again, the pressure will be on to rush quarterbacks into service.

 

The college success of the spread offense also made an easy evaluating tool less relevant. For years, teams looked back at the success and failures of college quarterbacks and found completion percentage a big factor. Teams broke down the final two college seasons of the quarterback and found that a combined 59 percent completion figure was a good guideline for study. The final two years were critical, because quarterbacks who play as freshmen and sophomores have skewed stats.

 

For a while, the combined 59 percent completion figure during the final two college seasons was like a Mendoza line. Those above that mark were successes. Those who were below were failures. Peyton and Tom Brady, McNabb, Palmer, Chad Pennington, Rivers and so many other success stories completed at least 59 percent of their passes in the span of their final two seasons.

 

Leaf, Alex Smith, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, J.P. Losman, Kyle Boller and so many others were among the many collegians who did not exceed the 59 percent combined mark in their final two seasons. They have been NFL failures.

 

Now, even the Theory of 59 is outdated. Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman and Davis all completed 59 percent of their passes or better during the final two seasons. Had they stayed in school for a senior year, their stats would be even better heading into the pros. If you use the Theory of 59, every quarterback in the draft except Rhett Bomar would be projected success, because Bomar is the only draft quarterback with less than a 59 percent completion rate. Still, this theory is a good evaluating tool, because accuracy is often more important than strong arms when looking at quarterbacks.

 

Teams will have to break down every pass and determine the completion percentages of throws longer than 10 yards to project the success of these quarterbacks. Of course, the NFL game has changed in many ways to give all of these underclassmen hope. With officials calling fewer than 1.7 holding penalties per game on average, quarterbacks can complete 65 percent of their passes working out of three- and five-step drops. They even have enough time to get to their third and maybe fourth reads on some throws.

 

Stafford, by the way, plans to run but not throw this weekend at Indianapolis. The Detroit Lions are seriously considering him for the first pick in the draft, so Stafford doesn't want to scare them by having a bad throwing day to receivers he just met. He'll do his throwing on the Georgia campus under his terms.

 

Maybe it's fitting that the class of 2009 is one in which teams have to use a hurry-up strategy to get to know the quarterbacks of the future. The NFL is going to more no-huddle, hurry-up offense. This weekend at the combine is the first real chance teams can get to know the 2009 quarterbacks of the future. The draft is a little more than two months away.

 

It's a hurry-up pace for a no-huddle league. Fitting.

 

The high rate of failure for underclassman QB's, combined with the HUGE contracts, is just another reason I think the Lions are going to seriously consider DA.

[WPB Dawg Fan]

Here is an interesting take by a Lions fan/blogger:

 

Trade for DA if the price is right!

 

The blurb about DA is here:

 

Trade for Derek Anderson if the price is right: This very well could wait to happen till draft day, but if the Lions aren't sold on Matt Stafford, swinging a deal for Anderson would be their next best option, as long as they don't overpay. The benefits of trading for Anderson have been laid out by Killer Kowalski, so check that out if you want a more in-depth look at what Derek can offer. But if you want the cliff notes, it basically boils down to the fact that Anderson is a cheaper and possibly safer alternative to drafting Matthew Stafford. The problem now lies, what would the Lions be willing to give up to the Browns for Anderson? Detroit might have a bit of a bad taste still in their mouths because of the Shaun Rogers trade, but the real issue is what Cleveland thinks Anderson's value is around draft day. The New York Jets are supposedly interested as well, and that could drive up the price.

 

When you look at different scenarios, it might be possible for Cleveland to include Anderson in a #5 for #1 swap of draft picks, which would be a dream scenario for Lions fans. Detroit would get a quarterback with NFL experience, and have a shot at drafting about 4-6 different instant impact players who they would've considered taking at #1. Problem is, what motivation would the Browns have to make that deal? Typical Lions luck, they score the #1 pick in a draft with no bonafide superstar.

 

A more realistic option would be to package Anderson and some lower-level picks for the #20. Lions fans would probably squeal about that, considering the glut of defensive prospects that would be available in that slot. The best-case scenario that could possibly happen that I can think of would be sending Detroit's 2nd and a 3rd round pick plus a conditional down the road to the Browns. I wish the price would drop, but with the presence of the Favre-less Jets, Cleveland is in a good position to field offers. Stupid Brett Favre, he's still screwing us over even when he's not playing!

 

Wow!!!

 

If we could get their 2nd (#33) AND one of their 3rds PLUS a conditional....I would just about...well...BOING!!!

[Oldcrow1945]

Here is an interesting take by a Lions fan/blogger:

 

Trade for DA if the price is right!

 

The blurb about DA is here:

 

 

 

Wow!!!

 

If we could get their 2nd (#33) AND one of their 3rds PLUS a conditional....I would just about...well...BOING!!!

 

YOU AND ME BOTH!

 

I still say the Lions are not drafting a Qb. Not high anyways. Linehand wants to run the ball. He turned the Dophins from one of the worst run teams to one that was in the middle of the pack and he ran the ball more at St.Louis than the previous coaches. They'll draft Moore or Smith with that first pick.

 

The more I think of it, and the more we see articles about underclass QB's, the more I think both Sanchez and Stafford drops farther than anyone expected. Just as Quinn did when he came out.

Maybe Stafford to the Niners and Sanchez to the Jets

[WPB Dawg Fan]

Another possible indication that LT is the way the Lions will go in the draft:

 

• Mayhew said he was considering moving left tackle Jeff Backus to guard.

 

“I had one conversation with him at practice last year,” Mayhew said. “He told me he thought he could do it.”

 

Backus has started every game -- 128 straight -- at left tackle since the Lions drafted him in the first round in 2001. He would need a lot of reps at guard.

 

“I think it’s easier, though, to go from outside to inside than it is to go from inside to outside,” Mayhew said. “Jeff’s a talented guy. He’s a hardworker. He’s a smart guy. He takes coaching. So I think if we did that and we did it relatively soon, I think he could adapt to the position.

 

You don't move your starting LT to G if you don't have somebody there to fill in...and there are no major prospects out there in FA...and the top LT's will be gone by #20.

[Oldcrow1945]

Another possible indication that LT is the way the Lions will go in the draft:

 

 

 

You don't move your starting LT to G if you don't have somebody there to fill in...and there are no major prospects out there in FA...and the top LT's will be gone by #20.

 

 

Exactly!

 

I see Walterfootball has the Lions reaching for OT Beatty with their #20 pick, but why would they do that when they could have a sure thing with Smith or Moore at #1?

That would also allow the Lions to get something on defense with that 20th overall. Like a Jackson, or Maybin or Cushing.

I can't help but think that Jim Schwartz is a defensive guy and Linehan is a guy that likes to run the ball..... An underclassmen QB with the #1 pick makes less sense every day.

 

I think it's Smith their #1 and defense with #20.

 

Then lets hope they send us a draft pick for Anderson. Everyone is happy. The Lions got their big time left tackle and a Qb and also got a big time defensive player all at the end of the first round.

[Guest Aloysius]

Yeah, it seems like Jason Smith is moving into the lead for Detroit's top pick.

 

Some people are also talking about Aaron Curry, who measured in at 6'1", 254 lbs. today and, according to one report, comes off as having all the makings of a future face of the franchise.