Risky business

[Guest Aloysius]

I recommend checking out this NFL Network clip of Mike Mayock & Mike Lombardi talking about some risky prospects in this year's draft. It's very interesting, both because of the names mentioned and the sense you get that Mayock doesn't think Lombardi knows what the hell he's talking about.

[ballpeen]

Thanks.

 

I didn't get the sense you did about Mayock and Lombardi, but it does show how guys at the top of the food chain in picking/evaluating NFL players are just like message board members...their opinions vary, which leads me to my final conclusion.

 

No matter how much time you put in to it to watch guys and raise you knowledge level, plain old good luck plays a big part.....especially for some of the positions they were discussing.

 

One of the things Mayock said has more importance that many realize, and might be the better way to evaluate players.....try to get a feeling for where the floor might be.

 

You can look at lots of guys and see unlimited potential but maybe you need to try to figure out how bad a guy might become assuming he gives reasonable effort....anybody can just quit, so we will leave that out of it.

[heckofajobbrownie]

I agree with all of Mayock's picks there. I think William Moore slips to round three or four.

[JewDago]

interesting that lombardi brought up orakpo as a guy who doesn't give consistent effort. he's the first person i've heard say that. it's also weird that he mentioned cushing as a two-down linebacker and then said he'd only be on the field 40% of the time. correct me if i'm wrong, but don't you have to go through first and second down to get to third down? that's some shitty math right there.

[heckofajobbrownie]

Yeah, I was thinking the Browns would go Orapko, but now I'm not so sure. You've got to think that Mangini has been humbled by his Vernon Gholston experience.

 

Crabtree is the safer pick. Raji is a safer pick.

[JewDago]

the more i learn about everyone, the more it seems that crabtree is the best option available. let's just hope he really is a larry fitzgerald clone.

 

if we could trade rogers without decimating the salary cap, i'd consider raji, but the cap implications combined with not being sure if raji will be an über-dominant NT like rogers makes it damn near impossible to consider a trade. i'd be interested to see, however, what kind of return we could get on phil's 3rd and bodden investment.

 

personally, i think lombardi's dead wrong about orakpo's effort, but that he's also not in crabtree's class as a player, though he's close. orakpo's the best of the three major pass-rushing prospects, though.

 

and i completely agree with heck's estimation of william moore, though i think he goes in the third no matter what. some team will talk themselves into it because he was injured last year and they'll rely on his junior tape more so than what he did more recently.

[We need Tom Tupa]

Maybe I'm wrong, but didn't we read somewhere that Mangini never really wanted Gholston?

[heckofajobbrownie]

Was that before or after he turned out to be a bust?

 

Did he not have final say on personnel? I don't know.

[YtownBrownsBacker]

Yeah, I was thinking the Browns would go Orapko, but now I'm not so sure. You've got to think that Mangini has been humbled by his Vernon Gholston experience.

 

Crabtree is the safer pick. Raji is a safer pick.

 

I they were really interested in Crabtree, Philly has inquired about Edwards and Philly has two first round picks. I would love to see them trade Edwards and pick Crabtree and also get a low 1st round pick. There would be a multitude of options taht could really put this team in the right direction with Crabtree and 3 more picks in the top 50.

 

Philly is desparate for a big time receiver and have even talked about packaging some picks and moving up to get Maclin, who they seem to like over Crabtree.

 

 

[Oldcrow1945]

the more i learn about everyone, the more it seems that crabtree is the best option available. let's just hope he really is a larry fitzgerald clone.

 

Because of his height and weight he reminds me much more of an Antonio Bryant Clone....And I don't mean that as slam because Bryant is finally turning into a great WR. I sure wish he was still in a Brown's uniform.

 

I still worry abou the fact that Crabtree has never had to play against a good defense. Not one of the Big 12 defenses ended up in the TOP 50 in yards given up per game. Texas was 51st at 343 yards given up per game.

He did nothing in his bowl game against Ole Miss. But supposedly he was hurt.

 

[JewDago]

crabtree's level of competition is definitely a concern, as is the pass-happy system he played in. however, he's got soft, soft hands and also stepped up his game in clutch situations. he can catch the ball and knows how to own the moment, two qualities that belie his competitiveness and composure.

 

though people normally only talk about QBs when they're talking intangibles, each position has things that you can't quantify, and with WRs, it's things like whether a player will fight for the ball, whether he gets rattled after getting lit up going over the middle, whether he rebounds after dropping a ball, how naturally he catches. crabtree has and does all that - it's why he's a top prospect and why he'll be successful in the NFL.

[Oldcrow1945]

crabtree's level of competition is definitely a concern, as is the pass-happy system he played in. however, he's got soft, soft hands and also stepped up his game in clutch situations. he can catch the ball and knows how to own the moment, two qualities that belie his competitiveness and composure.

 

though people normally only talk about QBs when they're talking intangibles, each position has things that you can't quantify, and with WRs, it's things like whether a player will fight for the ball, whether he gets rattled after getting lit up going over the middle, whether he rebounds after dropping a ball, how naturally he catches. crabtree has and does all that - it's why he's a top prospect and why he'll be successful in the NFL.

 

I also like that he seems to be a quality human being. For me, that is big plus.

 

[Guest Aloysius]

and i completely agree with heck's estimation of william moore, though i think he goes in the third no matter what. some team will talk themselves into it because he was injured last year and they'll rely on his junior tape more so than what he did more recently.

Chris Steuber of Scout.com says the Eagles are really high on him; he thinks they could take him in the late 2nd. But that may have changed now that they've signed Sean Jones.

 

Like Heck, I agree with Mayock's points. It was good to hear a draft guru confirm that Moore played like a 5th rounder last year: in the few games that I watched, he either was a non-factor or stood out mostly for getting burned.

[Guest Aloysius]

After watching some more film, I think the reason Ytown and I had such widely divergent opinions on Moore was that we watched different games.

 

If you watched him against Oklahoma State, you'd think he was an late 1st/early 2nd round guy:

 

Full size clip here

 

Yes, a little tight-hipped, but strong against the run and effective in coverage.

 

But if you watched the Texas game, you'd think, like Mayock, that you were watching a 5th round pick:

 

Full size clip here

 

Obviously, the question is which William Moore will you get if you draft him? At this point, my answer would be both.

 

The conventional explanation for Moore's poor play last year is that a series of nagging injuries affected his play. But the two performances displayed above occurred in back to back weeks. And from what I can tell, he didn't suffer any injuries in the Oklahoma State game that would explain his poor performance against Texas.

 

Because of that, I'm thinking that Moore may just be an inconsistent player. Maybe a good DB coach can get him to play at his best for 16 straight games, but I think it's more likely that he'll oscillate between being a playmaker and giving up big plays. And much like Sean Jones, that inconsistency will be blamed on injuries when mental lapses may be the real problem.

[Guest Aloysius]

William Moore went through position drills at Mizzou's second pro day and reportedly “looked like the old William Moore.” The injury explanation for his poor '08 season seems to be gaining steam.

 

Personally, I think he's too risky to take in the 2nd Round, but I can get why people would want to take a gamble on him with the hopes of getting the '07 Willy Mo.

[heckofajobbrownie]

I'm trying to gather a list of other players on the "Do Not Draft" list because of character concerns.

 

Here's one: Vontae Davis.

 

Here's another: Vontae Davis.