Oldcrow1945 Posted March 18, 2009 Report Share Posted March 18, 2009 I sure hope this is just a spring training thing. He's been awful. His ERA is over 18. He gave up ten runs in his last Start in Arizona. Grady is still hitting over .400 and had a homerun today. Mike Aubrey went 2-4...AGAIN! He's hitting .476. This kid is a keeper! Laporta had 2 more hits, including his 3rd double in just 27 AB's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalBrownsFan Posted March 18, 2009 Report Share Posted March 18, 2009 I sure hope this is just a spring training thing. He's been awful. His ERA is over 18. He gave up ten runs in his last Start in Arizona. Grady is still hitting over .400 and had a homerun today. Mike Aubrey went 2-4...AGAIN! He's hitting .476. This kid is a keeper! Laporta had 2 more hits, including his 3rd double in just 27 AB's. Meh, it's preseason, and pitchers usually take longer to get into the groove in the spring than batters do. Let's see how Cliff performs in his first few real starts. Until then, I say let's wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beanpot Posted March 21, 2009 Report Share Posted March 21, 2009 I sure hope this is just a spring training thing. He's been awful. His ERA is over 18. He gave up ten runs in his last Start in Arizona. Grady is still hitting over .400 and had a homerun today. Mike Aubrey went 2-4...AGAIN! He's hitting .476. This kid is a keeper! Laporta had 2 more hits, including his 3rd double in just 27 AB's. Normally, I'd scoff at ST numbers and suggest that those who take them seriously to lighten the hell up. But I'm with Oldcow, it's something to watch when it comes to Lee. I'm not sold on the guy in general and it's going to be way interesting to see if RH hitters pick up his two-seamer this year. As for Aubrey, he's no longer a kid and he has tons to prove when it comes to remaining healthy. Wish for the best, expect the worst kinda guy. Beanpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Masters Posted March 21, 2009 Report Share Posted March 21, 2009 How can anyone not be sold on Lee. Guy just won 22 games and the CY young. Before that he has been a 15 and 18 game winner. 2007 was the fluke, not 2008. Not that I expect Lee to win 22 and the Cy young every year. I saw in person Lee get shelled in one of his spring outings. He looked fine. He just wasn't showing a lot of pitches and mostly just throwing fastballs. It's ST, good pitchers work on pitches and location. They aren't worried about W's and L's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beanpot Posted March 21, 2009 Report Share Posted March 21, 2009 How can anyone not be sold on Lee. Guy just won 22 games and the CY young. Before that he has been a 15 and 18 game winner. 2007 was the fluke, not 2008. Not that I expect Lee to win 22 and the Cy young every year. I saw in person Lee get shelled in one of his spring outings. He looked fine. He just wasn't showing a lot of pitches and mostly just throwing fastballs. It's ST, good pitchers work on pitches and location. They aren't worried about W's and L's. Perhaps I could have worded it better. I’m not sold on the idea that he’s an elite pitcher that’s to be counted on to perform as he did last year. I will say that it’s a giant leap of faith to suggest 2007 was a “fluke” and 2008 was the real Cliff Lee. Hope you’re right, of course, but I’m not sold on that at all…yet. For example, the “non-fluke” Cliff Lee of 2008 posted career highs in ERA, ERA+, complete games, shutouts, strikeouts, BB/9, K/BB, HR/9, WHIP, FIP, GB/FB, GB%, FB%, HR/FB and strikes thrown. Better than 2007, 2006, 2005 and every other season in his career. Mike Fast wrote a terrific article about Lee in the 2009 Hardball Times Annual. He broke down Lee using PITCHf/x data and compared his 2008 season to seasons past. The conclusion was that the Cliff Lee of 2008 was far, FAR different from any other version of Cliff Lee…ever. Improved command, added ~ 1 MPH to his fastball, didn’t allow a home run while throwing a breaking ball and did a wonderful job of repeating his delivery and throwing his fastball for strikes. Plus, as I’ve mentioned several times, he added a two-seam fastball to his repertoire. Now you’re obviously sold on the idea that all of that is going to continue. And you use his previous win totals to amplify your point – btw, he’s never finished a season with 15 wins – without even mentioning his peripherals. The Cliff Lee that won 18 games in 2005 isn’t the same Cliff Lee that pitched last year. Not even close. Cliff Lee of 2008 was historic. I’m not at all sold on the idea that he’s going to be that guy ever again. FWIW, Chone, Marcel, ZIPS and Bill James all have him with an ERA over 3.60 and a win total in the low teens for 2009. I’ll take the over on those projections but not by much. Beanpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldcrow1945 Posted March 22, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2009 How can anyone not be sold on Lee. Guy just won 22 games and the CY young. Before that he has been a 15 and 18 game winner. 2007 was the fluke, not 2008. Not that I expect Lee to win 22 and the Cy young every year. I saw in person Lee get shelled in one of his spring outings. He looked fine. He just wasn't showing a lot of pitches and mostly just throwing fastballs. It's ST, good pitchers work on pitches and location. They aren't worried about W's and L's. Actually, Lee won 14, 18 and 14 before the horrible 2007 Season. But don't be sold on these win totals alone. In his first 14 win season his ERA was 5.43! He was the recipient of an offesne that scored a lot of runs each time he went to the mound. In 5 seasons his career ERA is an unspectacular 4.15. Beanpot's post was right on. Cliff Lee being a 15 to 16 game winner is what can be expected. While 2007 was a fluke, I'm sure 2008 may have been just as much as a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Masters Posted March 22, 2009 Report Share Posted March 22, 2009 Perhaps I could have worded it better. I’m not sold on the idea that he’s an elite pitcher that’s to be counted on to perform as he did last year. I will say that it’s a giant leap of faith to suggest 2007 was a “fluke” and 2008 was the real Cliff Lee. Hope you’re right, of course, but I’m not sold on that at all…yet. For example, the “non-fluke” Cliff Lee of 2008 posted career highs in ERA, ERA+, complete games, shutouts, strikeouts, BB/9, K/BB, HR/9, WHIP, FIP, GB/FB, GB%, FB%, HR/FB and strikes thrown. Better than 2007, 2006, 2005 and every other season in his career. Mike Fast wrote a terrific article about Lee in the 2009 Hardball Times Annual. He broke down Lee using PITCHf/x data and compared his 2008 season to seasons past. The conclusion was that the Cliff Lee of 2008 was far, FAR different from any other version of Cliff Lee…ever. Improved command, added ~ 1 MPH to his fastball, didn’t allow a home run while throwing a breaking ball and did a wonderful job of repeating his delivery and throwing his fastball for strikes. Plus, as I’ve mentioned several times, he added a two-seam fastball to his repertoire. Now you’re obviously sold on the idea that all of that is going to continue. And you use his previous win totals to amplify your point – btw, he’s never finished a season with 15 wins – without even mentioning his peripherals. The Cliff Lee that won 18 games in 2005 isn’t the same Cliff Lee that pitched last year. Not even close. Cliff Lee of 2008 was historic. I’m not at all sold on the idea that he’s going to be that guy ever again. FWIW, Chone, Marcel, ZIPS and Bill James all have him with an ERA over 3.60 and a win total in the low teens for 2009. I’ll take the over on those projections but not by much. Beanpot Now of course Cliff had a career year. Most pitchers get better when they are his age and experience. We are talking about a 30 year old pitcher who is going into his 6th full big league season. His command on all his pitches should be getting better. When looking straight at his stats from 2004 to 2008, 2007 is a fluke, while 2008 looks like the Cliff that won 18 in 2005 (in both 2005 and 2007 hitters were batting .250 against him). I see break downs like that, and those same ones could have made a case that CC's Cy Young year were a fluke, if looked at right after 2007. Do I expect Cliff to to perform the same as last year? Of course not. Most good pitchers do not post exact same seasons over and over again. It's tough to do. Lee in 2005 and 2008 are different. Cliff in 2008 is who he should have been by 2007, if not for the injuries (probably not 22 wins, but a consistent pitcher giving you quality starts and 15+ wins, w/ an ERA in the low 3's). Guys that win 14, 18, 14, and 22 in 4 out of the last 5 years are trends. An injury plagued season mixed in there is a fluke to me. It doesn't fit the trend. If 2008 was Cliffs only good season, then I'd have concerns. I have no worries about Cliff at the front of the rotation. I have far greater concerns with the rotation after Cliff Lee and Fausto. I project both to win 15 or more games win ERA's in the low 3's. I do realize it was only 14 wins n 2004 and 2006. Was trying to quickly go off of memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Masters Posted March 22, 2009 Report Share Posted March 22, 2009 Actually, Lee won 14, 18 and 14 before the horrible 2007 Season. But don't be sold on these win totals alone. In his first 14 win season his ERA was 5.43! He was the recipient of an offesne that scored a lot of runs each time he went to the mound. In 5 seasons his career ERA is an unspectacular 4.15. Beanpot's post was right on. Cliff Lee being a 15 to 16 game winner is what can be expected. While 2007 was a fluke, I'm sure 2008 may have been just as much as a fluke. And his first 14 win season with that ballooned ERA was his first full season in the big leagues. He then followed up by winning 18 with an ERA of 3.79 and holding opponents to a .251 BA (that was a top 20 ERA for all of MLB that year). Then teams figured him out again and his ERA and OBA went up as hitters adjusted. Then a bad injury season, then numbers back down. That's 18 and 22 win seasons in 4 years. A fluke is something that is completely out of line with everything else a guy has done. 22 is a career year, but hardly a fluke (again, see 2005). In 8 seasons CC had a career ERA of 3.66. W/O 2007 and 2008, his would be 4+. In 5 full seasons in the bigs (I am counting 2007), we are talking about a record of 73-35, an average of 200+ innings, 0.267 OBA, and an ERA at 4.50. Of course that ERA average is skewed by 2007 when Cliff's ERA was 6.29. Throw out 2007 and you have a guy that is 68-27 and an ERA of 4.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beanpot Posted March 22, 2009 Report Share Posted March 22, 2009 I have no worries about Cliff at the front of the rotation. I have far greater concerns with the rotation after Cliff Lee and Fausto. I project both to win 15 or more games win ERA's in the low 3's. I think we're in agreement. I'm not "worried" about Lee either. I think we're going to be reading far too many stories about his early 09 numbers compared to last year and all that when he comes back down to earth a bit, but he's the least of our concerns. BTW, how was spring training? Beanpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Masters Posted March 23, 2009 Report Share Posted March 23, 2009 I think we're in agreement. I'm not "worried" about Lee either. I think we're going to be reading far too many stories about his early 09 numbers compared to last year and all that when he comes back down to earth a bit, but he's the least of our concerns. BTW, how was spring training? Beanpot Oh, I am all kinds of expecting those stories. Kind of like last year with CC when he didn't start off well. Lee will come back down to earth for sure. But like you, I find him to be the least of CLE's concerns. Spring training was great. The ballpark is a great setup. Got to meet Feller (had him autograph my 1951 throw back hat). Had Fausto sign my glove. My brother got Wedge to talk about growing the mustache back (Wedge won't do it because so many people start websites about it and how they hate it. Well, that was his joking response). Brantley, Santana, and Mills look like guys we will be seeing a lot of in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beanpot Posted March 23, 2009 Report Share Posted March 23, 2009 Spring training was great. The ballpark is a great setup. Got to meet Feller (had him autograph my 1951 throw back hat). Had Fausto sign my glove. My brother got Wedge to talk about growing the mustache back (Wedge won't do it because so many people start websites about it and how they hate it. Well, that was his joking response). Brantley, Santana, and Mills look like guys we will be seeing a lot of in the future. Great stuff! Beanpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClevelandFanForLife Posted March 23, 2009 Report Share Posted March 23, 2009 here's the thing about the preseason of any sport; it only exists to get back into the swing of things. the 72 dolphins went like 0-6 or 1-5 in the preseason. it doesn't matter. pitchers work on one thing a game during the preseason. this past game lee worked on his fastball. hitters know this. he threw fastball after fastball trying to locate it. those hitters picked up on it right away and when a major league hitter knows when a fastball is coming it doesn't matter where it is located; they are going to crush it. i ma not worries at all but i am also not cocky. i know that lee will never have another 22 win season. i do however expect him to have 15 wins this year however. he is a good pitcher who had fantastic numbers last year. he isn't sandy koufax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Masters Posted March 23, 2009 Report Share Posted March 23, 2009 Well, as we talk about this, Lee goes out and pitches a very good outing against COL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIMO. Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 I'm definitely in the "easily frightened" camp. Cliff had a historic season for a forgettable team last year. Now with Vic, Fausto, Wood, LaPorta, etc joining the cavalry, we expect to be a contender again. Our only true contending team of the decade so far was 2007 where Lee was....well, there's not even an adjective for how Cliff was in '07. Now we're supposed to rely on that guy and call him our ace as we go for a division title and World Series run. I admit I'm about as superstitious as they come (as far as baseball goes) and I don't let go of grudges...so even after last year I don't think I'll ever forget about '07 Lee. Any bump in the road will scare me but that's part of the reason I love being a baseball fan. That said, If he can find the median between 2008 HOF Lee and pre-2007 good 2nd or 3rd starter Lee, I'll be very happy....and I think he can do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Masters Posted March 24, 2009 Report Share Posted March 24, 2009 I would hardly call last seasons team forgettable, seeing as how they had one of the best records in baseball after the allstar break. Despite trading CC, having Hafner injured, along with Victor. I am not sold on Leporta contributing any time this season after seeing him up close. He still looks like a college player to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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