Yet another mock

[Riceloft]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings...9-fo-mock-draft

 

1. Detroit Lions: Jason Smith, T, Baylor. This will be a very interesting sign of how much power Jim Schwartz has in Detroit as opposed to general manager Martin Mayhew. You might suspect that we're not proffering support for Matthew Stafford as the first overall pick, thanks to the Lewin Career Forecast. We suspect that the analytics-appreciating Schwartz is well aware of Stafford's comparable quarterbacks, and would much prefer taking one of the draft's tackles.

 

We figure Smith over Eugene Monroe because of their nature; Monroe's more of a finished product, but he's a pass blocker first. The Lions are going to be building around an ability to run the football, for better or worse, and Smith's the better run blocker. Worth noting is that Detroit hasn't even brought Monroe in for a one-on-one interview yet. The Lions could choose to take Aaron Curry and just focus all their resources on building a Tennessee-esque set of linebackers, but with Ernie Sims and Julian Peterson already in place, Smith makes the most sense.

 

2. St. Louis Rams: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest. Let's be honest: The Rams are riddled with holes. After cutting Orlando Pace and Torry Holt, mock drafts have made a case for either (Jason) Smith, Monroe, or Curry.

 

But their head coach is Steve Spagnuolo. And while Spagnuolo doesn't have the final say on player personnel, he certainly has a lot of say in that room. And we suspect that Spagnuolo will want to take the best pass rusher he can find for his defense and move Alex Barron over to left tackle. Curry is an excellent nine-technique player and is superb enough in coverage that Spagnuolo can build his blitz packages around disguising what Curry is going to do on every play, just like he did with Justin Tuck in New York last year.

 

3. Kansas City Chiefs: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College. Raji before Monroe? Absolutely. Monroe's probably the better player, but look at the history of Scott Pioli when he ran the Patriots front office. When Pioli and Bill Belichick were building the Patriots, before anything else, they went for defensive linemen with their first-round picks. Three of Pioli's four first-round picks after taking over player personnel were defensive linemen, and they were all hits.

 

Whither Glenn Dorsey, you ask? Dorsey's not a 3-4 nose tackle. Maybe he has the skillset to do it, but at 295 or 300 pounds, he doesn't have the size. Consider that Richard Seymour, who plays end for the Patriots, weighs 310 pounds. Dorsey is moving to end as soon as the Chiefs find a nose tackle who fits, while Tamba Hali's going to be an outside linebacker. Raji is 337 pounds and comes from a school and a system that Pioli's familiar with, and he's an ideal fit as a 3-4 nose tackle. While some have complained that Raji's too small to play the nose at 6-foot-2, Vince Wilfork -- who Pioli drafted to play the nose in New England -- is, in fact, 6-2.

 

4. Seattle Seahawks: Eugene Monroe, T, Virginia. This is a tricky spot to project. Tim Ruskell loves selecting defensive players from big schools with big pedigrees in the first round, and a couple are on the board in Brian Orakpo and Aaron Maybin; the trade of Julian Peterson could have theoretically opened a spot for the Seahawks to draft one of those two outside linebackers.

 

In the long run, though, the Seahawks need a tackle more than they need a linebacker to play alongside Leroy Hill and Lofa Tatupu. Even if Walter Jones returns from microfracture surgery at 100 percent, Seattle's patience with Sean Locklear has worn thin at right tackle, and Monroe's abilities in pass protection are a great fit for Seattle's strengths offensively.

 

5. Cleveland Browns: Brian Orakpo, LB, Texas. Assuming that Eric Mangini wasn't totally soured on drafting edge rushers after the Vernon Gholston disaster last year, it seems logical that he and personnel wizard George Kokinis -- the duo known simply as "ManKok" -- will go after one of the draft's many linebackers to improve their defense. While D'Qwell Jackson has some promise on one side of the line, David Bowens is strictly a placeholder who's familiar with Mangini's scheme.

 

Orakpo played end at Texas, but his size and skillset profiles better as a Sam linebacker in the 3-4 at the pro level. He's also the exact opposite of Gholston: While the Ohio State star was well-known for taking plays off and delivering in bursts, Orakpo's an all-effort player who is renowned for his motor. Mangini won't pick him solely because of that fact, but for a coach who's already been burned once, it's hard to imagine that the past won't come into consideration.

 

6. Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Oher, T, Mississippi. This spot had Michael Crabtree in it until the Bengals signed Laveranues Coles; with Crabtree probably off the board, the Bengals could go a few different ways. They were last in the league in Adjusted Line Yards on offense a year ago, when they were beset by injury. Also, Levi Brown's a right tackle playing left tackle. They could also choose to upgrade their group of linebackers, but all the other 4-3 linebackers have a grade in the middle of the first round at best, and the Bengals aren't likely to find a trade partner at this point of the draft unless someone really wants Crabtree.

 

Andre Smith has consistently graded out as superior to Oher on film; the problem, of course, is that he has been perceived as absolutely nuts since he got kicked off of his team before their bowl game. It's unconscionable to think that a team that has placed such focus on character since the antics of the early-aughts Bengals would take such a public pariah, regardless of his ability; Oher's the safer pick at the moment.

 

7. Oakland Raiders: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech. Yes, it's cliché to do this. But it actually does make sense. The Raiders, for all their failings and faults, do need a wide receiver pretty badly. The fact that they gave Javon Walker silly money to be one is unfortunate, but does not change this fact. Bringing in Crabtree makes much more sense than, say, a move for Darren McFadden, and that still happened. Although Tom Cable might fight for the team to take Andre Smith, Crabtree's going to be the pick if he falls here.

 

8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State. For all the talk that Jenkins isn't fast enough to play corner in the NFL, plenty of NFL players with a similar mix of Jenkins' size and timed speed have made it as successful NFL cornerbacks.

 

   Player        Height   Weight    40 Time 
Malcolm Jenkins    6-0      204      4.51 
Antonio Cromartie  6-2      208      4.47 
Marlin Jackson     6-1      198      4.52 
Corey Webster      6-0      199      4.51 
Charles Tillman    6-1      207      4.49 
Quentin Jammer     6-0      204      4.49

 

While the Jaguars have shown a propensity for taking Combine heroes in the past, that's not necessarily going to be the case under new general manager Gene Smith. While mock drafts have linked the Jaguars to Mark Sanchez because David Garrard's contract is free of roster bonuses through 2009, there's no real evidence that the Jags are unhappy with Garrard's performance, and they have a gaping hole at cornerback after Drayton Florence failed.

 

9. Green Bay Packers: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU. It all depends on what the Packers think is a bigger hole in their new 3-4. If it's at outside linebacker, they'd likely choose Everette Brown. We suspect they'll think the bigger hole is at defensive end, where the Packers don't have an obvious starter across from Cullen Jenkins. Jackson's strictly a 3-4 end without the ability to be an elite pass rusher, but at 296 pounds, he's exactly what the Packers need to occupy space in front of Aaron Kampman. Expecting Dom Capers to go to bat for an LSU guy shouldn't surprise anyone, either.

 

10. San Francisco 49ers: Everette Brown, LB, Florida State. Would the 49ers think long and hard about taking Stafford here? Absolutely. Getting burnt on Alex Smith has undoubtedly scared them, though, and the organization has been desperately trying to foster a pass rush for four years now. Despite spending boatloads of money on Justin Smith and drafting Kentwan Balmer and Manny Lawson with first-round picks, they haven't been able to do anything yet. Enter Brown, who profiles perfectly as an outside linebacker in the 3-4 with the potential to be an elite nine-technique rusher. His presence would create space for everyone else on the defense to do their jobs more effectively while giving Mike Singletary another linebacker to play with. This front office, to be honest, doesn't have the life meter left to take a chance on another quarterback. Brown is the smarter guess.

 

It's a team that actually would take a chance on a rookie quarterback that we forecast to acquire the 11th overall pick from the Bills in a trade. That would be the New York Jets, who would deal the 17th overall pick, the 76th overall pick, and a 2010 third-round pick to the Bills for the 11th pick in the draft. That's a roughly fair swap depending on what draft value chart you use, and with a multitude of tackles and defensive end-types still left on the board, the Bills can afford to trade down and see what's left six picks from now while acquiring a midround pick to make up for the one they lost in the Peters trade. As you might suspect, the Jets select...

 

11. New York Jets (from Buffalo): Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia. We've spoken about Stafford at length already, and don't think much of him as a potential star quarterback at the next level. That's already well known. Although the Lewin Career Forecast is high on Kellen Clemens, for one reason or another, the Jets don't seem to be.

 

The Jets, on the other hand, have personal seat licenses to sell. Stafford is the second-biggest name in the draft after Crabtree, and after the success the Ravens had with Joe Flacco a year ago, it's unlikely that Rex Ryan would be opposed to green-lighting the selection of a rookie quarterback in the first round. We're not saying it's going to work. We're just saying it makes sense.

 

As for the idea of Stafford falling this far? It's certainly plausible. After the Lions, every team except for perhaps the 49ers are committed to a quarterback (or two) at a hefty salary, and we don't think it's likely that the 49ers would go after Stafford. The draft-day falls of Aaron Rodgers and Brady Quinn in recent years are evidence that a quarterback's presence at the top of many a mock draft means little on draft day.

 

12. Denver Broncos: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC. We're not projecting a Jay Cutler trade, but the distinct possibility exists that Cutler could move on at some point during the offseason. That would require the Broncos to have a new quarterback, and Sanchez makes perfect sense as that player. He's a USC product, just like Matt Cassel, who head coach Josh McDaniels just molded into (a mirage of a) very good quarterback. He's also enough of a team player and moldable enough that McDaniels could see him as the player he can develop into his team's centerpiece.

 

Even if the Broncos don't trade Cutler, Sanchez gives the Broncos leverage over the offseason with regards to tolerating Cutler's foibles, and allows them to examine whether he can repair his relationship with McDaniels over the upcoming season. McDaniels and new statistically-oriented general manager Brian Xanders may also think that Sanchez and his 64.3% completion percentage will end up being the better player.

 

It's a controversial pick, sure, but it might be what McDaniels feels he needs to do to regain control of his team.

 

13. Washington Redskins: Andre Smith, T, Alabama. Why yes, Washington desperately needs a pass rusher who can work alongside Albert Haynesworth. The problem is that the Redskins don't take defensive linemen in the draft. Vinny Cerrato has never selected a defensive lineman before the fifth round of the draft as a member of the Redskins organization; the last defensive linemen he was responsible for selecting with a Day One pick was Israel Ifeanyi with the 49ers in 1996, and Ifeanyi played three NFL games. He's not picking a defensive end here, and the team's next biggest hole is at right tackle.

 

Stephon Heyer has been wildly inconsistent there when he has been healthy, while Jon Jansen's talents have been ravaged away by age and injury. Heyer could serve as the utility lineman and back up all four tackle and guard spots, and Smith could move in at right tackle before eventually replacing Chris Samuels at left tackle.

 

Our third trade of the day comes here, with the Saints trading down to acquire extra picks. New Orleans is without a second- or third-round pick thanks to the acquisitions of Jeremy Shockey and Jonathan Vilma. The perhaps-unlikely buyer? The New England Patriots, who have three second-round picks to burn and a player who we feel is their obvious choice. He won't make it to the 23rd pick, though, so we're guessing (and that's the proper word here) that New England gives up the 23rd, 58th, and 186th overall picks in exchange for...

 

14. New England Patriots (from New Orleans): Brian Cushing, LB, USC. If there's one thing the Patriots value from their linebackers and members of the secondary, it's versatility. They spent big money in free agency on Adalius Thomas, who can play anywhere. They spent a first-round pick on Brandon Meriweather, who can play nowhere anywhere. They spent their 2008 first-round pick on Jerod Mayo, who played both inside and outside in college.

 

Cushing is the player in this year's draft who has that same sort of versatility. He played defensive end, Sam linebacker, and some middle linebacker for USC after originally showing up on campus as a strong safety. He has durability issues, but he has the football IQ and instincts that Bill Belichick looks for in his defensive players. We can say without hesitation that Cushing to the Patriots makes more sense than virtually any other pick in this mock draft. The Patriots will just need to be willing to pull the trigger on a trade direction they don't normally take to make that happen.

 

15. Houston Texans: Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State. It just so happens that the best player available is exactly the piece that the Texans would want. We'll never understand how the success of Steve Slaton -- a midround pick -- would encourage the Texans to draft a halfback in the first round as opposed to just attempting to find another halfback in the third or fourth round to back up Slaton, but maybe that's too logical of a thought.

 

Maybin would play outside linebacker for the Texans after playing end for Penn State last year; he's very raw after playing only a single year in college, but as they showed with their selection of Amobi Okoye, Houston isn't afraid to take a player with elite talent and attempt to mold him into a successful part of their defense.

 

The next trade we project would involve the champions of the NFC; the Cardinals would trade up to the 16th overall pick, giving the Chargers a chance to move down and acquire some additional picks. In return, the Cardinals would give up the 31st overall pick, the 63rd overall pick, and the 159th overall pick. They'd select a fast-rising player to replace the departed Antonio Smith...

 

16. Arizona Cardinals (from San Diego): Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech. Johnson is an elite athlete who has become a bit of a cause celebre during the scouting process. At 6-7 and 266 pounds, Johnson is the sort of freakish force of nature who would be the first overall pick if he was consistent; instead, he struggles with his technique and is too easily blocked on run plays.

 

The Cardinals need a player to replace the departed Smith, who was somewhat similar in stature at 6-4, 285. Johnson would likely be a pass-rush specialist at first, but with a confident coaching staff in Arizona, there's reason to think that they could coach him up to be a dynamic 4-3 defensive end or a 3-4 outside linebacker if they went in that direction more frequently. Johnson could still be there at 31, but there's every reason to think that a team like Buffalo, Detroit, Philadelphia, Atlanta, or Baltimore might take a chance on him before they pick at the end of the round.

 

17. Buffalo Bills (from New York Jets): Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State. In lieu of adding another defensive end or reaching for Eben Britton, the Bills fill their most obvious hole and add a blocking tight end to create holes on the ground for Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson, or whoever's getting the ball out of the backfield in Buffalo. Doug Farrar already wrote at length about Pettigrew's ability in the Washington Post. Pettigrew would give Trent Edwards another option to go along with the deeper threats of Lee Evans and Terrell Owens.

 

Another trade? You bet. The Giants have two second-round picks, but depth isn't their problem -- after some excellent drafts, they need to add talented, impact players to supplement that depth. That leads to a trade with the Bears, with the Giants giving up the 29th overall pick and the 60th overall pick to Chicago (who needs to add depth at several different positions) to select...

 

18. New York Giants: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland. The Giants love freakish athletes. See: Jacobs, Brandon; Kiwanuka, Mathias; Tuck, Justin. They've spent a good amount of currency on wide receivers over the past few drafts, picking up Sinorice Moss, Steve Smith, and Mario Manningham in the process. The problem is that only Smith has made any sort of impact so far. While Manningham is only in his second season, Moss is likely to be cut during training camp.

 

Heyward-Bey showed off his impressive athletic ability at the Combine, running a 40 that was timed as fast as 4.25 (by the excellent nfldraftscout.com) despite weighing 210 pounds. At 6-2, he lacks Plaxico Burress' size, but he's got nearly 30 pounds on Domenik Hixon and profiles as a better downfield threat than does Hixon. He's also got great body control to adapt to off-target throws, something he'd see a fair amount of as a Giants wide receiver.

 

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State. Obviously, the Buccaneers' front office has a bit of a blank slate at the moment; Both Raheem Morris and Mark Dominik are new to their jobs, and their modus operandi appeared to be clearing out as many veterans as possible. There are holes at wide receiver and linebacker, but there's no real obvious drop linebacker for the Buccaneers to take and put into the Tampa-2, and they don't have a great situation at quarterback.

 

The buzz of people putting two and two together is Freeman's presence at Kansas State while Morris was defensive coordinator there in 2006. That could be a positive or a negative, but to be honest, we don't really think anyone knows. It could be a smokescreen to try and keep teams from grabbing the player the Bucs really want; in lieu of any definitive information one way or another, we'll hesitantly agree with the draft logic and go with Freeman.

 

20. Detroit Lions: Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi. The trade of Cory Redding opened up an opportunity for the Lions to find a lineman or two in this year's draft. Schwartz's plan for developing linemen is to find five or six and figure out who fits; that would seem to lend itself to taking linemen later in the draft, but Jerry is an excellent athlete on the interior with a great burst off the line. He'd play the three-technique in Schwartz's defense and -- dare we say -- could end up being a poor man's Albert Haynesworth.

 

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, HB, Georgia. Moreno has a low Speed Score, sure, but so does Brian Westbrook, who has a similar sort of profile and makeup to the former Georgia star. The Eagles do need a backup halfback, and although they could go for a linebacker or a safety here, it's more likely they try and go for depth in the later rounds to fill those spots. Moreno provides leverage against injuries to Westbrook and his eventual departure from the team, which will likely come before Moreno's rookie contract expires.

 

22. Minnesota Vikings: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri. A receiver who struggles with his routes but can get open deep? Going to the Vikings? Come again, you say! The difference between Maclin and Troy Williamson -- or even, perhaps, Bernard Berrian -- is that Maclin has great hands. He might be best as a rookie coming out of the slot with Sidney Rice serving as the split end, but either way, Maclin would give the Vikings' quarterbacks one less excuse while creating another reason for safeties to stay out of the box. Britton is another option here.

 

23. New Orleans Saints (from New England): Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois. Sean Payton raved about Davis at the Combine, and although he could have been talking Davis up, the Saints just cut Mike McKenzie and only really have one corner of potential relevance in Tracy Porter. Davis will not fall past the Saints.

 

24. Atlanta Falcons: Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan. The talk here is linebacker, but the Falcons should be able to get by with Mike Peterson and Coy Wire for a year with that excellent defensive line in front of them. Delmas is undersized, but is capable of playing either spot in the secondary and has more than a bit of Bob Sanders in him. For a team that was starting Erik Coleman and Lawyer Milloy last year, safety is going to be a concern sooner rather than later. Third-round pick Thomas DeCoud will take one spot, but Delmas should take the other eventually.

 

25. Miami Dolphins: Ron Brace, DT, Boston College. Brace isn't one of the "Planet Theory" Parcells picks, but instead, he's simply the best 3-4 nose tackle left in the draft for a team that's going to need one; Jason Ferguson, contrary to popular belief, cannot play forever. Although the team might opt for a middle linebacker or reach for a cornerback, adding Brace secures the defensive line for the next few years after Ferguson leaves, adds a potential impact nose tackle to the lineup when Ferguson comes off the field, and fits the organizational philosophy of Parcells and Tony Sparano.

 

26. Baltimore Ravens: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest. What does the team that doesn't bust on first-round picks who aren't Kyle Boller get? A corner with an attitude that would make even Ray Lewis blush. Smith is essentially Cortland Finnegan, although even Finnegan has an inch on Smith's 5-9 frame. Smith has great ball skills, gets intelligent position on taller receivers, can jump, and is an excellent tackler in the running game. The Ravens are down to Fabian Washington and Dominique Foxworth in the secondary, but Smith would step in immediately as a nickel corner and end up being part of the next great Ravens defense sometime in 2010.

 

27. Indianapolis Colts: Evander Hood, DT, Missouri. This would be a dream for the Colts, who need a two-gap tackle more than anything else. Hood isn't an elite athlete at defensive tackle, but he's very quick and does great work in the phone booth. Although the Colts haven't drafted a defensive tackle this high in the past, unlike outside linebacker, they have committed significant cash or assets to players like Corey Simon and Anthony McFarland. That leads me to believe that Bill Polian values defensive tackles more than he does outside linebackers in their system.

 

 

28. Buffalo Bills (from Philadelphia Eagles): Eben Britton, T, Arizona. The fifth tackle of the first round would be the Bills' replacement for Peters; he's not the astounding athlete that Peters is, but at 6-6, he has the length to one day be a left tackle in the NFL. 2009 would not be that day, so the Bills would likely have to move Langston Walker over to left tackle while teaching Britton the finer points of pass blocking. Britton played right tackle until his final year at Arizona, so it wouldn't be a brand new experience.

 

29. Chicago Bears (from New York Giants): Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State. Percy Harvin has the higher grade at the moment, but taking an SEC wide receiver who didn't play in a pro-style offense (or at least wasn't used in a particularly pro-style way) is a move any experienced GM should be able to sniff out by now. Besides, with Devin Hester across the field, Robiskie makes much more sense for the Bears offense. He gives them a possession receiver with the size and hands to pick up first downs while Hester operates deep and Greg Olsen occupies the safeties. He might be available ten picks from now, but the Bears probably won't have the luxury of trading down again to find out.

 

30. Tennessee Titans: Rey Maualaga, LB, USC. You want to believe that the Titans are going to take a wide receiver? Keep holding your breath. Tennessee has attempted to get by on defense without an excellent middle linebacker for a while now, but Maualaga would take over as the starting middle linebacker immediately for Stephen Tulloch while helping to cushion the blow from the loss of Albert Haynesworth. Although he has had behavioral issues in college, well, the Titans are an organization that doesn't mind taking players of that nature if they can perform. In the Titans' defense, Maualaga would be a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate.

 

31. San Diego Chargers: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee. Ayers is a little undersized at 272 pounds to be a 3-4 defensive end, but he was versatile enough to play tackle or end at Tennessee, and has the height at 6-3 to add another 15 or 20 pounds to his frame. Another possible overdraft, but there's not really another player who fits the Chargers' needs here; they'd have to consider Maualaga if he falls here, although they have been loathe to commit serious effort to finding middle linebackers.

 

32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Alex Mack, C, California. The final pick of the first round is an attempt to solve the riddle that formed after Jeff Hartings retired. Neither Sean Mahan nor Justin Hartwig have been anything close to the solution, and Mack has the sort of reputation and consistent college performance that the Steelers look for. He could also play guard if the Steelers elected to keep Hartwig at center for the time being.

[TheClevelandSound]

There is absolutely no way we are passing up Michael Crabtree. Period.

[mole644]

There is absolutely no way we are passing up Michael Crabtree. Period.

ManKok just doesn't strike me as the types to take a WR in the first round, let alone top 5. I could be wrong tho, but my money is on Crabtree not being the pick.

[Oldcrow1945]

ManKok just doesn't strike me as the types to take a WR in the first round, let alone top 5. I could be wrong tho, but my money is on Crabtree not being the pick.

 

I would agree completely if not for the news that they have been talking to the Giants about Edwards. If they'd move Edwards, Would mangini feel comfortable replacing him with Givens and a later pick in this draft?

 

But when I look at the past Patriot WR's and Mangini's WR's in New York, the Wide receiver position just didn't seem to be of great importance to these places where Mangini coached. So you may be right Mole.

 

 

I actually like this draft because I still think Schwartz goes OL. It does surprise me that he has Robiskie in the first round. I thought Robiskie may go higher in the second than most people are saying....Like the Rams or Jags.

But I'd be shocked to see him move into the first round.

[YtownBrownsBacker]

Every mock seems to be very different, not just at the bottom, but guys ranked in the top ten in one are at the bottom of another or not even in it. This is going to be a strange year.

 

Heywood-Bey taken ahead of Maclin, Robiskie in the first round, Crabtree lasting until 7th, Denver taking a QB (are they projecting Cutler being gone), San Fran passing on Sanchez, Jacksonville not taking a WR, Rams not taking a LT, Wells falling out of the first round................................................WOW

 

This is some out of the box stuff.

[hammertime]

IF Braylon is traded, and the Browns feel they can use one of the picks aquired to draft a late 1st round back such as Brown only then does picking Crabtree seem like a smart pick at #5.

 

Not to sound oldschool but we need some touchdowns to win games along with a sound defense, which can then be focused on after the first 2 picks.

 

Our FO will be tested on their game plan as the draft unfoils, adjusting but maintaining the goal of scoring points this year.