My First 10 Pick Mock Draft

[WPB Dawg Fan]

OK, so I am nowhere near the draft guru some of you are on this board. In fact, I learn more every day that I didn't even know I didn't know. However, I think we have enough info to make some educated guesses based on the things teams have done in FA...and what is rumored out there. I am only willing to go the first 10 because even hitting close on that is still near impossible..and the later in the round you go the more it is likely to change due to seemingly inconsequential moves and earlier picks.

 

So, without further ado:

 

#1 Detroit Lions: Much has been made about the QB situation and the need to take Stafford at #1. I get it. Teams win and lose at the QB position. But I also see how teams destroy talented QB's by not protecting them. The Lions themselves are a prime example in the way they destroyed Joey Harrington. I truly believe it wasn't that Harrington was a bust...but that almost any QB would have failed behind that OL. The new regime in Detroit seems to have a little more inside the old skull than they have had there in recent history. That, combined with the recent success of drafting a starting LT high in the draft (Cleveland/Miami)...AND the availability of several similar options at QB via their later rd 1 pick...and I come to the conclusion that the Lions will draft

LT Jason Smith

 

#2 St. Louis Rams: The Rams are slated to take Smith in almost every mock draft I have seen. In truth, they very well could if he is there. The thing is there is a 1A option at LT and that is Eugene Monroe. The other option could very well be WR Michael Crabtree. The Rams have absolutely NOBODY at the WR position. However I think there are several problems with the Rams taking Crabtree here. He is coming off of surgery on his foot, Bulger is on the downside of his career, the running game has to be overhauled. All that says that WR will not be the top of the list. I think teams are going to be playing it safe at the top of the draft this year...so the Rams will draft

LT Eugene Monroe

 

#3 Kansas City Chiefs: The UNANIMOUS pick for the Chiefs is LB Aaron Curry. He is the best of a fantastic group of LB's this year. He is considered one of the safest picks in the draft. He is versatile and a hard worker. Everything in the world points to Curry going #3 in the draft. EVERYTHING!!! But then again...the Chiefs are moving to the 3-4...and NT is the KEY to the 3-4 defense. Without a stud NT the 3-4 defense will turn into a leaky sieve in the running game...and that will translate into the LB's getting owned no matter how good they are. The biggest guy on the Chiefs DL right now is 9yr vet Ron Edwards at 6'3" 315. Nobody else goes for more than 306. A NT has to be at least 330 in the 3-4 or he is going to get blown off the ball. PERIOD. This may fly in the face of the 'experts'....but the Chiefs will draft

DT B.J. Raji

 

#4 Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are the start of the question marks for the experts. I have seen them taking everyone from one of the LT's to Crabtree to one of the QB's and even Brian Orakpo. This will actually be a key position for the remainder of the draft. If one of the top 2 LT's make it to this slot, I think it will be a no brainer. However, I think Oher isn't quite a #4 pick. The Seahawks may be willing to deal down a few to get him and let somebody else take Crabtree or Stafford. The Jets (if they haven't made a move by then) would make a lot of sense (SF will get one at #11 if they want one) to move up...but the price may be too much. Barring a trade, I think the Seahawks will draft

WR Michael Crabtree

 

#5 Cleveland Browns: The Browns are really in a great position at this point. Barring any trades before draft day, the Browns will now have control of the top 3 QB's available (assuming Seattle hasn't traded their pick to a QB needy team, but even then it would leave Crabtree on the board). They will also have a player that is considered to be the #1 player on their draft board sitting there for the taking in LB Aaron Curry. I believe with the overhaul going on in Cleveland that the Browns would likely trade first, ask questions later. They will take whatever they can get for whatever gives them the best return. With so many trade options available, something will likely get done here. Still, I am basing this off of no trades, so the Browns will draft

LB Aaron Curry

 

#6 Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals have almost as many needs as the Browns. They have lost a WR and may be willing to go up to #4 to get Crabtree (I doubt it), but if Crabtree is available at #5 they may make a move to get him there. They have also lost a number of OL players and that was not exactly a strength last year. They could also be looking at any of the defensive positions here as they have no defense. With the next OL guy in Oher still being a bit of a stretch, and barring a trade that gives them Crabtree...defense becomes the only position of value. Cincinnati was tied with Cleveland with only 17 sacks last year...so the Bengals will draft

DE Brian Orakpo

 

#7 Oakland Raiders: Oakland is anybodies guess. Nothing Al Davis does makes any sense...so trying to predict the unpredictable is an exercise in futility. However, one thing we know about Davis is that he LOVES raw speed and athleticism. Two guys that fit that bill at this slot are DE Michael Johnson and WR Jeremy Maclin (don't be surprised if the Raiders try to jump up and get Crabtree at #4 or #5). FA has watched the Raiders lose 3 WR's and not bring in any...and Davis has to give his QB weapons. He got him his RB last year, so this year the Raiders draft

WR Jeremy Maclin

 

#8 Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags biggest issue is the defense. Once a strong point, the Jags passing defense became porous last year. They were ranked near the bottom in every defensive passing category. They also let go Fred Taylor. Sure, they still have Drew....but I doubt he will be a single back type player. They also have a need at WR. Basically, they could go any number of ways. But the best fit and value here may be a surprise for some...as the Jaguars draft

RB Chris "Beanie" Wells

 

#9 Green Bay Packers: Green Bay is another team making the switch from the 4-3 to the 3-4...and the draft has played into their hands nicely in this respect. Two of the better OLB/DE prospects are sitting here waiting for the Packers to decide between them...Aaron Maybin and Everette Brown. When it all comes down to it, Maybin has the better burst...and room to put on some more size on his frame. This is probably one of the easiest picks in the draft

DE/OLB Aaron Maybin

 

#10 San Francisco 49ers: Wow...we are down to #10 and BOTH QB's are still on the board??? Really??? No, it isn't going to happen. SOMEBODY is going to trade up and take Stafford, probably between #4 and #6. Either way, the 49ers are likely to take a QB at this position. Barring trades it will be Stafford...but for this one pick I am going to assume that SOMEBODY moved up and grabbed him. So, with the 10th overall pick, the 49ers draft

QB Mark Sanchez

 

 

I really think that there will be at least one trade in the top 5 slots...but I think that it will occur at either #4 or #5 (maybe both).

 

Likely trade scenarios are:

#4 goes to NY Jets and they select Stafford

#5 goes to NY Jets and they select Stafford

#5 goes to Cincinnati and they select Crabtree

#4 or #5 to Oakland and they select Crabtree

 

Those two players are the only ones in this draft that I can see someone trade up to get. There are other elite playes...but not the kind you make a huge trade up for (no LT is worth that, nor a DT).

 

Anyway, I am sure this will get nitpicked and chastised by many...and I am sure that before draft day I will have to revise this a number of times due to trades and or FA signings...but there is my top 10 mock draft picks as of March 27th...remember, less than 30 shopping days left to Christmas...I mean the draft.

[Guest AdaM]

If the bengals get orakpo they will instantly have a LB corp on par with the Steelers....

 

 

Keith Rivers and Brian Orakpo would wreak havoc.

[hammertime]

OK, so I am nowhere near the draft guru some of you are on this board. In fact, I learn more every day that I didn't even know I didn't know. However, I think we have enough info to make some educated guesses based on the things teams have done in FA...and what is rumored out there. I am only willing to go the first 10 because even hitting close on that is still near impossible..and the later in the round you go the more it is likely to change due to seemingly inconsequential moves and earlier picks.

 

So, without further ado:

 

#1 Detroit Lions: Much has been made about the QB situation and the need to take Stafford at #1. I get it. Teams win and lose at the QB position. But I also see how teams destroy talented QB's by not protecting them. The Lions themselves are a prime example in the way they destroyed Joey Harrington. I truly believe it wasn't that Harrington was a bust...but that almost any QB would have failed behind that OL. The new regime in Detroit seems to have a little more inside the old skull than they have had there in recent history. That, combined with the recent success of drafting a starting LT high in the draft (Cleveland/Miami)...AND the availability of several similar options at QB via their later rd 1 pick...and I come to the conclusion that the Lions will draft

LT Jason Smith

 

#2 St. Louis Rams: The Rams are slated to take Smith in almost every mock draft I have seen. In truth, they very well could if he is there. The thing is there is a 1A option at LT and that is Eugene Monroe. The other option could very well be WR Michael Crabtree. The Rams have absolutely NOBODY at the WR position. However I think there are several problems with the Rams taking Crabtree here. He is coming off of surgery on his foot, Bulger is on the downside of his career, the running game has to be overhauled. All that says that WR will not be the top of the list. I think teams are going to be playing it safe at the top of the draft this year...so the Rams will draft

LT Eugene Monroe

 

#3 Kansas City Chiefs: The UNANIMOUS pick for the Chiefs is LB Aaron Curry. He is the best of a fantastic group of LB's this year. He is considered one of the safest picks in the draft. He is versatile and a hard worker. Everything in the world points to Curry going #3 in the draft. EVERYTHING!!! But then again...the Chiefs are moving to the 3-4...and NT is the KEY to the 3-4 defense. Without a stud NT the 3-4 defense will turn into a leaky sieve in the running game...and that will translate into the LB's getting owned no matter how good they are. The biggest guy on the Chiefs DL right now is 9yr vet Ron Edwards at 6'3" 315. Nobody else goes for more than 306. A NT has to be at least 330 in the 3-4 or he is going to get blown off the ball. PERIOD. This may fly in the face of the 'experts'....but the Chiefs will draft

DT B.J. Raji

 

#4 Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are the start of the question marks for the experts. I have seen them taking everyone from one of the LT's to Crabtree to one of the QB's and even Brian Orakpo. This will actually be a key position for the remainder of the draft. If one of the top 2 LT's make it to this slot, I think it will be a no brainer. However, I think Oher isn't quite a #4 pick. The Seahawks may be willing to deal down a few to get him and let somebody else take Crabtree or Stafford. The Jets (if they haven't made a move by then) would make a lot of sense (SF will get one at #11 if they want one) to move up...but the price may be too much. Barring a trade, I think the Seahawks will draft

WR Michael Crabtree

 

#5 Cleveland Browns: The Browns are really in a great position at this point. Barring any trades before draft day, the Browns will now have control of the top 3 QB's available (assuming Seattle hasn't traded their pick to a QB needy team, but even then it would leave Crabtree on the board). They will also have a player that is considered to be the #1 player on their draft board sitting there for the taking in LB Aaron Curry. I believe with the overhaul going on in Cleveland that the Browns would likely trade first, ask questions later. They will take whatever they can get for whatever gives them the best return. With so many trade options available, something will likely get done here. Still, I am basing this off of no trades, so the Browns will draft

LB Aaron Curry

 

#6 Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals have almost as many needs as the Browns. They have lost a WR and may be willing to go up to #4 to get Crabtree (I doubt it), but if Crabtree is available at #5 they may make a move to get him there. They have also lost a number of OL players and that was not exactly a strength last year. They could also be looking at any of the defensive positions here as they have no defense. With the next OL guy in Oher still being a bit of a stretch, and barring a trade that gives them Crabtree...defense becomes the only position of value. Cincinnati was tied with Cleveland with only 17 sacks last year...so the Bengals will draft

DE Brian Orakpo

 

#7 Oakland Raiders: Oakland is anybodies guess. Nothing Al Davis does makes any sense...so trying to predict the unpredictable is an exercise in futility. However, one thing we know about Davis is that he LOVES raw speed and athleticism. Two guys that fit that bill at this slot are DE Michael Johnson and WR Jeremy Maclin (don't be surprised if the Raiders try to jump up and get Crabtree at #4 or #5). FA has watched the Raiders lose 3 WR's and not bring in any...and Davis has to give his QB weapons. He got him his RB last year, so this year the Raiders draft

WR Jeremy Maclin

 

#8 Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags biggest issue is the defense. Once a strong point, the Jags passing defense became porous last year. They were ranked near the bottom in every defensive passing category. They also let go Fred Taylor. Sure, they still have Drew....but I doubt he will be a single back type player. They also have a need at WR. Basically, they could go any number of ways. But the best fit and value here may be a surprise for some...as the Jaguars draft

RB Chris "Beanie" Wells

 

#9 Green Bay Packers: Green Bay is another team making the switch from the 4-3 to the 3-4...and the draft has played into their hands nicely in this respect. Two of the better OLB/DE prospects are sitting here waiting for the Packers to decide between them...Aaron Maybin and Everette Brown. When it all comes down to it, Maybin has the better burst...and room to put on some more size on his frame. This is probably one of the easiest picks in the draft

DE/OLB Aaron Maybin

 

#10 San Francisco 49ers: Wow...we are down to #10 and BOTH QB's are still on the board??? Really??? No, it isn't going to happen. SOMEBODY is going to trade up and take Stafford, probably between #4 and #6. Either way, the 49ers are likely to take a QB at this position. Barring trades it will be Stafford...but for this one pick I am going to assume that SOMEBODY moved up and grabbed him. So, with the 10th overall pick, the 49ers draft

QB Mark Sanchez

 

 

I really think that there will be at least one trade in the top 5 slots...but I think that it will occur at either #4 or #5 (maybe both).

 

Likely trade scenarios are:

#4 goes to NY Jets and they select Stafford

#5 goes to NY Jets and they select Stafford

#5 goes to Cincinnati and they select Crabtree

#4 or #5 to Oakland and they select Crabtree

 

Those two players are the only ones in this draft that I can see someone trade up to get. There are other elite playes...but not the kind you make a huge trade up for (no LT is worth that, nor a DT).

 

Anyway, I am sure this will get nitpicked and chastised by many...and I am sure that before draft day I will have to revise this a number of times due to trades and or FA signings...but there is my top 10 mock draft picks as of March 27th...remember, less than 30 shopping days left to Christmas...I mean the draft.

 

Browns won't give cincy anything.

[WPB Dawg Fan]

Browns won't give cincy anything.

I think you missed the point...we would get the #6 plus an additional pick in that case...and STILL get the player we want...so what exactly are we GIVING Cincinnati?

[hammertime]

I think you missed the point...we would get the #6 plus an additional pick in that case...and STILL get the player we want...so what exactly are we GIVING Cincinnati?

I don't think that the Browns will do business with cincy- i'm not saying it wouldn't be good for us.

[JewDago]

if cinci wants to offer us something for a player we're not even going to take, mangini would be foolish to not pull the trigger on a trade, especially considering that moving up even a single spot high in the first round should be worth at least a fifth, considering we got a sixth for moving from twelve to thirteen.

 

and, though it was a different regime, trading with division foes isn't completely unprecedented. if a deal helps the team, you make it, regardless of who it's with.

[WPB Dawg Fan]

I don't think that the Browns will do business with cincy- i'm not saying it wouldn't be good for us.

I seem to remember doing business with the Ravens a few years back.....trading down to 13 from 12 and taking Wimbley and getting a 6th rounder. Why not deal with Cincinnati and possible get a 3rd rounder? (they are likely to get a compensatory pick at #98)

[Snatch98]

If the bengals get orakpo they will instantly have a LB corp on par with the Steelers....

 

 

Keith Rivers and Brian Orakpo would wreak havoc.

 

 

No. First and foremost Dick Lebeau and the schemes that are drawn up elevate the Steelers LB corp into the stratosphere. Secondly the Bengals would only have two solid LB's where as the Steelers have Harrison, Timmons, Farrior, Woodley and Foote coming in as a rotational back up. Their LB corp would no doubt be better but not on par with the Steelers and I don't think it takes a homer to say that....

 

<--- Homer.

 

 

AND to talk about the mock. Why would the chiefs draft BJ Raji when they just drafted Glenn Dorsey last year? Are they playing Dorsey at DE?

[WPB Dawg Fan]

AND to talk about the mock. Why would the chiefs draft BJ Raji when they just drafted Glenn Dorsey last year? Are they playing Dorsey at DE?

 

Dorsey is 297 lbs....a typical NT for the 3-4 is around 340-350. Dorsey would get killed inside in a 3-4. My guess is he will be a DE in the new system.

 

[Guest AdaM]

Dorsey is 297 lbs....a typical NT for the 3-4 is around 340-350. Dorsey would get killed inside in a 3-4. My guess is he will be a DE in the new system.

 

 

Yeah dorsey will be a DE or traded.

[ClevelandFanForLife]

Yeah dorsey will be a DE or traded.

i think that the biggest thing for dorsey to overcome would be to convert from a terrible qb to a dominant defensive lineman.

[Snatch98]

Yeah dorsey will be a DE or traded.

 

 

They sure as hell aren't going to trade their first round pick from last year. No way, no how. I could see him being moved but not traded. It's also not unreasonable to assume he may bulk up a little bit if he hasn't already. The chiefs don't have a stand out LB. I'll be shocked if Curry doesn't go off the board to KC or higher.

[hammertime]

I seem to remember doing business with the Ravens a few years back.....trading down to 13 from 12 and taking Wimbley and getting a 6th rounder. Why not deal with Cincinnati and possible get a 3rd rounder? (they are likely to get a compensatory pick at #98)

 

Bet they would like to rethink now.

[Snatch98]

i think that the biggest thing for dorsey to overcome would be to convert from a terrible qb to a dominant defensive lineman.

 

 

 

 

[WPB Dawg Fan]

Apparently McShay and Kiper decided to see what they thought would happen if the Lions didn't take Stafford. Here are their comments:

 

Big changes without Stafford at No. 1

If Detroit doesn't take Matthew Stafford, the Seahawks will be waiting

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Insider

McShay By Todd McShay

ESPN.com

Archive

 

The SportsCenter producers posed this question to Mel Kiper and me earlier this week: How much of a shake-up would it be to the top 10 picks of 2009 draft if Detroit opted not to take Georgia QB Matthew Stafford with the No. 1 overall pick?

 

It took only a few minutes of shuffling players around to realize how significant the difference would be. Here's how the top 10 unfolded on SportsCenter:

 

1. Detroit Lions -- Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

2. St. Louis Rams -- Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

3. Kansas City Chiefs -- Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest

4. Seattle Seahawks -- Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia

5. Cleveland Browns -- Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas

6. Cincinnati Bengals -- Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

7. Oakland Raiders -- B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College

8. Jacksonville Jaguars -- Mark Sanchez, QB, USC

9. Green Bay Packers -- Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State

10. San Francisco 49ers -- Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

 

But why stop at the top 10? Below is Scouts Inc.'s projection of how things will unfold over the first two rounds in such a scenario, but before we get to the rest of the picks here are a few quick notes explaining some of the key differences:

 

NFL.com Video

 

Watch OL Jason Smith work out during the 2009 NFL Combine.

• With Jason Smith going No. 1 overall in this scenario Crabtree becomes the better value pick at No. 2 for St. Louis, which needs a wide receiver as badly as it needs an offensive tackle.

 

• Seattle has greater needs, such as outside linebacker, safety and offensive tackle, but using the fourth overall pick on Stafford makes sense considering Matt Hasselbeck's age (33) and durability concerns.

 

• Raji is falling a bit right now because of some off-the-field concerns (weight issues, discipline, 2007 academic suspension) but a few teams will still be willing to take a chance on him in the top 15, including the Raiders at No. 7.

 

• I'm still not convinced the Jaguars will draft Sanchez at No. 8, but it would be much easier to pull the trigger if Crabtree is off the board.

 

• Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin is a victim of circumstance in this scenario, falling all the way to the Chargers at pick No. 16. San Diego has several bigger needs to fill, but Maclin is too good a value to pass up, and he could add a vertical element to that offense from the slot position. The run on wide receivers clearly will occur in the middle of the first round.

 

With all of this in mind, here's a look at how the first day of the draft could unfold if Stafford is not the Lions' choice at No. 1:

 

Wow...not much agreement with me...but then again I wouldn't expect it.

 

St.Louis taking Crabtree over Monroe at #2 just doesn't make sense to me. Their QB is getting mauled (45 sacks) so a WR isn't really going to help that much.

KC taking Curry is still possible as I mentioned...but it all starts up front in the 3-4...and they have NOBODY to play the NT position (and NT doesn't need to be brainy).

Seattle taking Stafford may be a good idea. I had him as an option...but I give Hasselback a few more years if he has an OL and weapons.

 

Anyway...it is interesting that they are actually considering the possibility of Stafford NOT going to the Lions.

[FloridaBrownsFan]

Pretty good mock. Only pick that really struck me as odd was Beanie to the Jags. If Crabtree, Maclin, Stafford, or Sanchez are still on the board at #8, I'm willing to bet they would be picked over Beanie. While MoJo could use a nice compliment, its definitely not a need for this team. And when ur picking that high, u got to draft an impact player that will contribute sometime in the near future. With Mojo still being quite young, I don't see him being replaced anytime soon.

[Snatch98]

Pretty good mock. Only pick that really struck me as odd was Beanie to the Jags. If Crabtree, Maclin, Stafford, or Sanchez are still on the board at #8, I'm willing to bet they would be picked over Beanie. While MoJo could use a nice compliment, its definitely not a need for this team. And when ur picking that high, u got to draft an impact player that will contribute sometime in the near future. With Mojo still being quite young, I don't see him being replaced anytime soon.

 

 

And since when is Beanie being projected as a top 10 pick? He'll be going towards the bottom of round one or the top of round 2.

[WPB Dawg Fan]

And since when is Beanie being projected as a top 10 pick? He'll be going towards the bottom of round one or the top of round 2.

 

Lot of reactionary stuff going on with Beanie...but here are a few things to consider:

 

His BLAZING FAST 40 at his pro day

Scott Wright of Draft Countdown has him listed as the #10 player

 

I think a lot of the bad press on him stems more from disenchantment with the OSU program as a whole.

 

As for MoJo...he has never had to carry the load....I think he needs somebody to run WITH him...and Wells is a perfect match. Like I said, this was my 'out on a limb' pick.

 

 

 

 

[Guest Aloysius]

Wow...not much agreement with me...but then again I wouldn't expect it.

 

St.Louis taking Crabtree over Monroe at #2 just doesn't make sense to me. Their QB is getting mauled (45 sacks) so a WR isn't really going to help that much.

That's why they'd love to have Jason Smith, but he's already off the board. Not everyone's high on Eugene Monroe - he has a reputation for being lazy, struggled against wimpish Michael Johnson, and had a knee issue pop up during his med eval at the Combine. And there have been reports that some Rams scouts are really pushing for Crabtree.

 

KC taking Curry is still possible as I mentioned...but it all starts up front in the 3-4...and they have NOBODY to play the NT position (and NT doesn't need to be brainy).

It's not about intelligence; it's about commitment. When a guy fails five drug tests in college, gets suspended because of academic issues (though perhaps not entirely his fault), and was only able to keep his weight down during the year he had draft money as a motivator, you have to at least wonder whether giving him top 5 money is a bad idea.

 

So I agree with McShay; in my tentative mock, I have Raji going to the Raiders, who'll be willing to overlook all of that stuff. He'll also get to play in a 4-3 defense in Oakland, which may be a better fit for him.

[WPB Dawg Fan]

That's why they'd love to have Jason Smith, but he's already off the board. Not everyone's high on Eugene Monroe - he has a reputation for being lazy, struggled against wimpish Michael Johnson, and had a knee issue pop up during his med eval at the Combine. And there have been reports that some Rams scouts are really pushing for Crabtree.

 

 

It's not about intelligence; it's about commitment. When a guy fails five drug tests in college, gets suspended because of academic issues (though perhaps not entirely his fault), and was only able to keep his weight down during the year he had draft money as a motivator, you have to at least wonder whether giving him top 5 money is a bad idea.

 

So I agree with McShay; in my tentative mock, I have Raji going to the Raiders, who'll be willing to overlook all of that stuff. He'll also get to play in a 4-3 defense in Oakland, which may be a better fit for him.

 

that's cool...but who do you have playing NT for the Chiefs. They certainly don't have one on the roster right now...and there are only 2 DT's above 320 remaining in FA and they are Brandon McKinney and Kendrick Allen...both backup quality guys.

 

As for Crabtree to the Rams...I heard about the push for him too...but considering this is the 'silly season' I was chalking it up to misdirection. Still, these are called mocks for good reason...they are not the real thing and everyone has and is entitled to their opinion. This was my first stab at it this year and will likely change several times...

 

but I still can't see KC passing on Raji, as he has the potential to anchor that defense for the next 10 years...and there are NO alternatives (unless you see a 3-4 team willing to trade a NT they just have lying around somewhere...sarcasm, sorry)...Curry is definitely a real possibility there and I can understand why everyone is sold on that pick.

 

[Guest Aloysius]

that's cool...but who do you have playing NT for the Chiefs. They certainly don't have one on the roster right now...and there are only 2 DT's above 320 remaining in FA and they are Brandon McKinney and Kendrick Allen...both backup quality guys.

Tank Tyler would play NT. He's a fairly strong dude (put up 42 rep of 225 at the Combine) and has the frame to get bigger. IIRC, he weighed 317 lbs. at the '07 Senior Bowl, though the added weight was more flab than muscle.

 

but I still can't see KC passing on Raji, as he has the potential to anchor that defense for the next 10 years...and there are NO alternatives (unless you see a 3-4 team willing to trade a NT they just have lying around somewhere...sarcasm, sorry).

Raji's college teammate, Ron Brace, could be an effective 3-4 nose. Texas's Roy Miller may be able to play it, though he's kind of a NT/DE tweener. Some teams reportedly like Louisville's Adrian Grady as a Day 2 developmental option.

 

It's definitely a weak year for 3-4 linemen, but I don't think that'll make Scott Pioli commit over $25M in guaranteed money to a guy with character concerns. That's not the kind of move you make when you're rebuilding a team.

[Guest Aloysius]

I guess the one hope for getting Curry is if Kansas City somehow trades down. Given the Pioli-McDaniels connection, it's possible that Denver could trade up to #3 to get Sanchez - a pretty big jump, but perhaps a necessary one if the rumors of the Seahawks being interested in Sanchez are credible.

 

And this report makes a Chiefs trade-down look like a distinct possibility:

 

Because of the trade that brought quarterback Matt Cassel and linebacker Mike Vrabel from New England, the Chiefs have no selection in between the first and third rounds of the upcoming draft.

 

They are proceeding as if they’ll pick later in the first round, sometime in the second or perhaps both. They entertained three highly regarded defensive prospects Thursday at their Truman Sports Complex headquarters — defensive end Brian Orakpo of Texas and linebackers Connor Barwin of Cincinnati and James Laurinaitis of Ohio State.

 

Orakpo, who had 11 sacks for the Longhorns last season, is one of the draft’s most coveted players, and the Chiefs could choose him with their top pick, third overall.

 

Barwin and Laurinaitis will probably be selected later in the first round or possibly the second. That is no-man’s land for the Chiefs currently but maybe not by the time the draft rolls around.

 

“We kind of touched on that a little bit,” Barwin said. “The Chiefs asked me how high I thought I would be drafted. I said I expected to be drafted in the first round, but I didn’t think I would go as high as the third pick overall.

 

“They said they had the third pick right now but that things could change. They never told me I’d be a Chief, but they did say they didn’t know what draft picks they might have April 25.”

It's also interesting that they're looking at Laurinaitis. He doesn't project well to a 3-4 defense, but I guess he could play WILB (DQ's spot).

[Guest Aloysius]

Scout.com's Chris Steuber has a similar scenario to mine going down in his latest mock:

1. Detroit - Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
2. St. Louis - Eugene Monroe, LT, Virginia
3. Denver (from KC) - Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia
4. Seattle - Jason Smith, LT, Baylor
5. Cleveland - Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest

More here.

[WPB Dawg Fan]

I would say Raji has effectively made my mock a mess with his positive drug test. KC should be pretty much locked in on Curry at this point...unless like you said, they make a trade down.

 

Add into the fact that it now looks like Detroit won't likely be able to get a QB with their 20th pick and it starts to look a lot more like Stafford at #1....unless of course Detroit makes a trade with Cleveland for one of ours.

 

Still a long way to go...and tons more changes to occur...which is why I said at the beginning that this was just a first draft.

 

We shall see....

[WPB Dawg Fan]

Scout.com's Chris Steuber has a similar scenario to mine going down in his latest mock:

1. Detroit - Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
2. St. Louis - Eugene Monroe, LT, Virginia
3. Denver (from KC) - Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia
4. Seattle - Jason Smith, LT, Baylor
5. Cleveland - Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest

More here.

 

VERY interesting! Should be a great 3 weeks leading up to this.

 

[Guest Aloysius]

Here's Todd McShay talking about the draft implications of the Cutler trade & Raji's failed drug test:

 

[BrownIndian]

I cannot picture Detroit taking Sanchez, while a franchise QB is their biggest need, Sanchez will not be ready to play for another 2,3 years easily. So will Cuelpepper start again this year ? I feel them taking a proven LT

[WPB Dawg Fan]

Here's Todd McShay talking about the draft implications of the Cutler trade & Raji's failed drug test:

Yeah....I tend to agree with what he is saying. Somehow Denver has managed to significantly INCREASE the value of the QB's...both in the draft itself and the remaining FA's/Trades.

 

As for Raji....he probably is still a top 10...but I think top 5 is a stretch at this point.

 

Orakpo is really starting to look like a likely pick for the Browns...I am just not sure that he is the best fit.

[WPB Dawg Fan]

It is the day before the draft...so I guess it is time to make my updates on my original draft:

 

#1 Detroit Lions: Much has been made about the QB situation and the need to take Stafford at #1. I get it. Teams win and lose at the QB position. But I also see how teams destroy talented QB's by not protecting them. The Lions themselves are a prime example in the way they destroyed Joey Harrington. I truly believe it wasn't that Harrington was a bust...but that almost any QB would have failed behind that OL. The new regime in Detroit seems to have a little more inside the old skull than they have had there in recent history. That, combined with the recent success of drafting a starting LT high in the draft (Cleveland/Miami)...AND the availability of several similar options at QB via their later rd 1 pick...and I come to the conclusion that the Lions will draft

LT Jason Smith

I believe that the Lions have convinced themselves that they need a fact to the franchise. I still think that they are making a mistake, as their OL is still a mess. However, I just can't imagine them taking Curry at #1...and Stafford just may be too big of a PR move NOT to make.

Uptated Pick: QB Matthew Stafford

 

#2 St. Louis Rams: The Rams are slated to take Smith in almost every mock draft I have seen. In truth, they very well could if he is there. The thing is there is a 1A option at LT and that is Eugene Monroe. The other option could very well be WR Michael Crabtree. The Rams have absolutely NOBODY at the WR position. However I think there are several problems with the Rams taking Crabtree here. He is coming off of surgery on his foot, Bulger is on the downside of his career, the running game has to be overhauled. All that says that WR will not be the top of the list. I think teams are going to be playing it safe at the top of the draft this year...so the Rams will draft

LT Eugene Monroe

Their have been a ton of rumors about the Rams going QB or WR...but with the retirement of Orlando Pace I would be SHOCKED if they don't go LT with the best players in the draft at a need position.

Updated Pick: LT Jason Smith

 

#3 Kansas City Chiefs: The UNANIMOUS pick for the Chiefs is LB Aaron Curry. He is the best of a fantastic group of LB's this year. He is considered one of the safest picks in the draft. He is versatile and a hard worker. Everything in the world points to Curry going #3 in the draft. EVERYTHING!!! But then again...the Chiefs are moving to the 3-4...and NT is the KEY to the 3-4 defense. Without a stud NT the 3-4 defense will turn into a leaky sieve in the running game...and that will translate into the LB's getting owned no matter how good they are. The biggest guy on the Chiefs DL right now is 9yr vet Ron Edwards at 6'3" 315. Nobody else goes for more than 306. A NT has to be at least 330 in the 3-4 or he is going to get blown off the ball. PERIOD. This may fly in the face of the 'experts'....but the Chiefs will draft

DT B.J. Raji

KC has a TON of needs. They just traded off another starter in TE Gonzalez...which means Matt Cassel has one less weapon and a less reliable outlet...meaning less time to make the pass. I don't see Pioli wanting to chance getting his QB killed in his first year...so....in a bit of a surprise...

Updated Pick: LT Eugene Monroe

 

#4 Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are the start of the question marks for the experts. I have seen them taking everyone from one of the LT's to Crabtree to one of the QB's and even Brian Orakpo. This will actually be a key position for the remainder of the draft. If one of the top 2 LT's make it to this slot, I think it will be a no brainer. However, I think Oher isn't quite a #4 pick. The Seahawks may be willing to deal down a few to get him and let somebody else take Crabtree or Stafford. The Jets (if they haven't made a move by then) would make a lot of sense (SF will get one at #11 if they want one) to move up...but the price may be too much. Barring a trade, I think the Seahawks will draft

WR Michael Crabtree

Seattle is actually the linch-pin pick of the draft. I would almost be surprised if this pick isn't traded. They have been linked to Sanchez, Crabtree, Curry, one of the LT's...etc. Anyway, I am going with the idea that Seattle is forced to make the pick here....with the top 2 LT's gone (A.Smith is still too big of a gamble) I think the choice comes down to Sanchez/Crabtree/Curry...

Updated Pick: WR Michael Crabtree

 

#5 Cleveland Browns: The Browns are really in a great position at this point. Barring any trades before draft day, the Browns will now have control of the top 3 QB's available (assuming Seattle hasn't traded their pick to a QB needy team, but even then it would leave Crabtree on the board). They will also have a player that is considered to be the #1 player on their draft board sitting there for the taking in LB Aaron Curry. I believe with the overhaul going on in Cleveland that the Browns would likely trade first, ask questions later. They will take whatever they can get for whatever gives them the best return. With so many trade options available, something will likely get done here. Still, I am basing this off of no trades, so the Browns will draft

LB Aaron Curry

Regardless of whom is taken by the Seahawks...the Browns are going to have a ton of trade options open. If Sanchez goes at #4, that still leaves Crabtree and Curry...so the options are there. However, in a no-trade draft, the Browns will continue to work on the defense

LB Aaron Curry

 

#6 Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals have almost as many needs as the Browns. They have lost a WR and may be willing to go up to #4 to get Crabtree (I doubt it), but if Crabtree is available at #5 they may make a move to get him there. They have also lost a number of OL players and that was not exactly a strength last year. They could also be looking at any of the defensive positions here as they have no defense. With the next OL guy in Oher still being a bit of a stretch, and barring a trade that gives them Crabtree...defense becomes the only position of value. Cincinnati was tied with Cleveland with only 17 sacks last year...so the Bengals will draft

DE Brian Orakpo

Cincinnati has a ton of options here as well...and with their history of not caring about off field problems as much as other teams...it could get interesting. I think it comes down to Raji and A.Smith. Their OL and DL are a mess, so either one will be a HUGE improvement. The decision comes down to where do they need the MOST help...and it comes down to protecting their biggest asset

LT Andre Smith

 

#7 Oakland Raiders: Oakland is anybodies guess. Nothing Al Davis does makes any sense...so trying to predict the unpredictable is an exercise in futility. However, one thing we know about Davis is that he LOVES raw speed and athleticism. Two guys that fit that bill at this slot are DE Michael Johnson and WR Jeremy Maclin (don't be surprised if the Raiders try to jump up and get Crabtree at #4 or #5). FA has watched the Raiders lose 3 WR's and not bring in any...and Davis has to give his QB weapons. He got him his RB last year, so this year the Raiders draft

WR Jeremy Maclin

Speed is where Al Davis lives!

WR Jeremy Maclin

 

#8 Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags biggest issue is the defense. Once a strong point, the Jags passing defense became porous last year. They were ranked near the bottom in every defensive passing category. They also let go Fred Taylor. Sure, they still have Drew....but I doubt he will be a single back type player. They also have a need at WR. Basically, they could go any number of ways. But the best fit and value here may be a surprise for some...as the Jaguars draft

RB Chris "Beanie" Wells

The Jags are not going to be happy here. They would love a DL guy. They would also love an OL guy. A WR would also be a huge help. I guess they could go QB...but I just don't see it. And a funny thing has been happening lately...Beanie Wells is starting to get some love in the media. I know this is my "WTF" pick...but I am sticking with it.

RB Chris "Beanie" Wells

 

#9 Green Bay Packers: Green Bay is another team making the switch from the 4-3 to the 3-4...and the draft has played into their hands nicely in this respect. Two of the better OLB/DE prospects are sitting here waiting for the Packers to decide between them...Aaron Maybin and Everette Brown. When it all comes down to it, Maybin has the better burst...and room to put on some more size on his frame. This is probably one of the easiest picks in the draft

DE/OLB Aaron Maybin

Green Bay has got to be smiling if the draft plays out this way. They will have the choice of 2 of the top 3-4 players in the draft in Raji and Orakpo. Simple fact is that the 3-4 is predicated on having a dominant NT.

NT BJ Raji

 

#10 San Francisco 49ers: Wow...we are down to #10 and BOTH QB's are still on the board??? Really??? No, it isn't going to happen. SOMEBODY is going to trade up and take Stafford, probably between #4 and #6. Either way, the 49ers are likely to take a QB at this position. Barring trades it will be Stafford...but for this one pick I am going to assume that SOMEBODY moved up and grabbed him. So, with the 10th overall pick, the 49ers draft

QB Mark Sanchez

Simple...if a QB is here, the 49ers will take him.

QB Mark Sanchez

 

 

I CONTINIUE to think that there will be at least one trade in the top 5 slots...and I still think that it will most likely occur at either #4 or #5 (maybe both).

 

This is my final draft. Hope you all enjoy.