Why we haven't traded "X"

[WPB Dawg Fan]

Lots of people are running around like chickens with their heads cut off over why we haven't made the BIG TRADE. We have all these rumors about trades concerning Quinn/Anderson/Edwards/Rogers...and yet absolutely nothing is happening....and people are wondering why....and postulating what their values COULD be in a trade.

 

Here are my thoughts on the subject:

 

We have not made any trades yet because in each case there are more than one team interested (and in some cases in different players) and because there are still moves out there that will likely increase the value of the our players...and I truly believe that Mangini/Kokinas are waiting to have their socks knocked off before pulling the trigger on one of our top players. They are also...in my opinion...more than willing to KEEP all 4 of these guys if a VALUE TRADE doesn't come their way.

 

Looking at each player individually...

 

Brady Quinn: There seems to be a TON of interest in Quinn. Denver has definitely asked about him...and one rumor has it that their request to include Quinn is the reason the Cutler trade fell through. Quinn's value is pretty easy to determine. He has a VERY AFFORDABLE contract through 2011...so no need to renegotiate....there are no FA QB's on the market to rival him at this point (nor DA to be realistic)....and he is likely to cost less in CAP as well as draft picks than getting to either Sanchez or Stafford. It will likely take the #1 or #2 pick overall to get Stafford. To get to that pick, a team will have to likely package 2 1sts....and Quinn can likely be had for a 1st and a 3rd (maybe a 2nd). Do the math. Sanchez is going to take nearly as much at this point....and his cap hit will still be astronomical. So, you can get a rookie with only 20 starts for your 1st/3rd....or a guy who has been in the league for 2yrs and has 3 starts that showed promise. So, like I said, Quinn's value is likely a 1st and a 3rd, with a 1st and 2nd possible.

 

Derek Anderson: Anderson buzz seems to have died down some...but don't think for a second he is not getting looked at. He is, after all, a QB that went to the pro-bowl and led his team to a 10-5 record just a year ago. He has a huge arm and is big...both things that are being talked about when mentioning Sanchez. In the end, it is going to be the SAME COMPARISONS that I mentioned for Quinn that will determine the value for Anderson....the difference being that Anderson's PHYSICAL TOOLS give him a higher ceiling...while his MENTAL TOOLS give him a lower floor...making him more of a gamble. Therefore I believe teams will likely be less likely to go quite as high on the trades....but don't be surprised to see DA go for at least a mid-level 1st rounder...and maybe get a 5th or so thrown in.

 

Shaun Rogers: Rogers, to me, is the LEAST LIKELY of the big 4 to get moved. From all accounts he is participating in workouts and things have been smoothed over. Add that tot he fact that the ONLY AVAILABLE REPLACEMENT in the draft is BJ Raji who has a history of failed drug tests (and may have failed another at the combine) and we would be in effect using our 5th round pick to trade a baby for a possible suspension risk. If, however, Mangini things Rubin can step in and perform....Rogers is a HUGE (both literal and figurative) asset that we can move, especially with all the teams moving to a 3-4 this year.

His value is definitely going to be AT LEAST a mid 1st and 3rd (Raji will be gone by 8). His cap is manageable, he is a pro-bowl player, and he is coming off of a dominant year on a bad team. Still...my thoughts are that he is NOT going anywhere.

 

Braylon Edwards: BE is going to go for a lot more than anyone thinks. Sure, he dropped the ball a lot this past season...but he also was saddled with absolutely NO help on the opposite side...a wild QB (and then QB of the week)...and was coming off of a pro-bowl season. He is young, athletic, and overall has shown a willingness to try to get better. His comparisons in current WR's that may be available are Boldin and Chad Ocho-Cinco (that name change is SOOO lame). All 3 will require a re-working of their contracts in any trades, so that is a mute point. Edwards is the youngest (26, Boldin is 28 and Johnson is 31). The draft picks in the same area are Maclin and Crabtree....both likely to be gone by the 8th pick....so any team looking for a WR is likely going to need to use a 1st and 2nd to get them in the draft (read NY or Phili). So, with that said, Edwards is the YOUNGEST talented WR with NFL experience...his contract will likely be in the area of a top 5 draft pick (where both draftees may end up going), and he can be had for less in trade than the draft WR's. I think that in the end the Browns will likely get exactly what they are asking for, a 1st/3rd/and either a 5th or a player.

 

 

 

 

Keep in mind, I don't think any of these moves happen until Thursday or later the week of the draft...and may not occur until the WR/QB/NT draftees are gone on draft day. Teams will hold out hope that the player falls to them before using the pick in a trade. That is why I think that any and all of the trade rumors that include our 5th pick and one of these players are totally useless.

 

As a point of interest...if we take Crabtree or Maclin at #5 BEFORE any trades for BE....don't expect us to trade him. By taking a WR at #5 we will have in effect reduced BE's trade value...and his value to the Browns INCREASES as an option opposite the rookie....so if we still have BE when/if we take Maclin/Crabtree....expect us to have our Boldin/Fitzgerald combo on the field come opening day.

[hammertime]

To look at the cup as half full, DA should be the only player traded.

[onefellswoop7]

Here is an interesting piece from a Kiper, Jr. chat session the other day...

 

 

Adam (Columbus, OH): Mel, with the recent legal action against Donte Stallworth and the trade of Kellen Winslow and the talks of trading Braylon Edwards. What do you think the chances are of the Browns using the #5 pick to draft a Michael Crabtree or Jeremy Maclin to be the number 1 WR for Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson?

 

Mel Kiper: I have them taking Crabtree for that reason. Edwards is a free agent after the 2009 season. Plus they had a ton of drops there. You need to help Brady Quinn. They also need to address RB at some point. They have high hopes for Martin Rucker. They need someone like that. The Stallworth situation and Edwards becoming a free agent. In the second round, they could address the LB situation with Clay Matthews. With their second second round pick, they could look at LeSean McCoy. You've got the young RB and the big WR. Plus a LB to help the defense.

 

 

Keith (Chicago): Is there a team that would trade for Derek Anderson? Can the Browns get a third rounder for him?

 

Mel Kiper: No. The days of thinking third rounder are over. He doesn't have any buzz. He's not the guy I thought myself. When Rex Ryan got the job with the Jets, I thought he might go after Derek Anderson. The Ravens had drafted him before releasing him. Familiarity that's the kind of thing you try for. But outside of that, I don't see many teams. Dallas maybe, but they went out and got Jon Kitna in a trade. Maybe a later round pick is all you're going to get for him now.

[Guest mz.]

DA should be the only player traded.

 

I'm not sure anybody needs to be traded.

 

A voice of reason around here? Say it ain't so!

[hammertime]

I'm not sure anybody needs to be traded.

 

A voice of reason around here? Say it ain't so!

 

If the need for another pick arrises a QB is the only position we have where both QB's could start.

 

If i try to think positive and rosey thoughts, maybe BE could rebound. Rogers is not going anywhere. I'm not expecting anything till draft day.

 

Unless Curry were to fall to #5, no one wants to trade for it.

[onefellswoop7]

Here is an interesting piece from a Kiper, Jr. chat session the other day...

 

 

Keith (Chicago): Is there a team that would trade for Derek Anderson? Can the Browns get a third rounder for him?

 

Mel Kiper: No. The days of thinking third rounder are over. He doesn't have any buzz. He's not the guy I thought myself. When Rex Ryan got the job with the Jets, I thought he might go after Derek Anderson. The Ravens had drafted him before releasing him. Familiarity that's the kind of thing you try for. But outside of that, I don't see many teams. Dallas maybe, but they went out and got Jon Kitna in a trade. Maybe a later round pick is all you're going to get for him now.

 

 

This didn't pop out to anyone? He thinks we can't even get a 3rd for DA anymore. We won't ship a guy who could be a great insurance policy off for anything less! ESPECIALLY if the new regime isn't sold on BQ.

[YtownBrownsBacker]

Maybe you need to consider that some of these players haven't been moved because they don't want to trade them. Just because some media hack came up with some rumor doesn't mean the team wants to move a guy.

 

I'd say maybe Anderson because they can't get enough for him to make it worth trading him. They already paid most of his 2009 salary and would have to go out and find a solid veteran backup. So, if you can't get a high #3 you keep him.

 

Edwards, only because of his contract situation. He's in his contract year and that will be modivation. I would think his status won't be known until draft day.

 

I seriously don't think any other player is even being considered for trade. there is always rumors and speculation this time of year.

[WPB Dawg Fan]

This didn't pop out to anyone? He thinks we can't even get a 3rd for DA anymore. We won't ship a guy who could be a great insurance policy off for anything less! ESPECIALLY if the new regime isn't sold on BQ.

Kiper has a bad habit of thinking too highly of the draft. His opinion on what a veteran would get in return is ALWAYS low...and just because DA isn't the BIG RUMOR right now doesn't mean he won't be come draft day.

 

Here is the thing....there are no available starting QB's (young ones anyway) in FA. The best QB's that are POSSIBLY available via trade are Lienart/Quinn/DA. I still hold to the fact that Leinart isn't going anywhere because Warner's contract is basically a HUGE 1 year deal with a $5M non-guaranteed 2nd year attached...meaning Leinart is a cheap backup this year and has a real chance to start next year. Why trade him away so you can pay MORE for another rookie QB (and with AZ in the playoffs they may have to pony up multiple picks to get one a good one).

 

So that leaves DA and Quinn. And the truth is that DA is Sanchez with experience. A rocket arm with a tendency to lose the strike zone, and BIG. So, the question comes down to who ends up on the outside looking in on the draft QB's...and is DA worth a high 2nd or low 1st in comparison to not having a QB or betting on a 2nd tier guy.

 

Kiper always believes in the unproven rookie....GM's have a tendency to look at the entire picture...which is why Kiper is always surprised when teams trade away draft picks on veterans.

 

DA's floor is 2 2nds (Schaub trade) and his ceiling is a mid to low 1st with maybe a 5th.

[WPB Dawg Fan]

Maybe you need to consider that some of these players haven't been moved because they don't want to trade them. Just because some media hack came up with some rumor doesn't mean the team wants to move a guy.

 

I'd say maybe Anderson because they can't get enough for him to make it worth trading him. They already paid most of his 2009 salary and would have to go out and find a solid veteran backup. So, if you can't get a high #3 you keep him.

 

Edwards, only because of his contract situation. He's in his contract year and that will be modivation. I would think his status won't be known until draft day.

 

I seriously don't think any other player is even being considered for trade. there is always rumors and speculation this time of year.

I actually believe it when they said only JT and Cribbs are safe. Why, because new management usually wants to put a stamp on the team. Also, why say no before you hear what you can get? They will listen to ALL trades, no matter the player (save JT)...and if it benefits the team, they will do it. If not, they won't.

 

I don't think it is a case of "wanting" to trade anyone. I think the guys we still have are more than welcome to play on this team and compete...and we would be happy to keep them all...but I also think the right offer will get just about anyone.

[Gips]

I think DA is the most likely to be traded simply because browns fans dont care to much for him and mankoki isnt going to risk the double fecal impaction of DA not performing well rather its his fault or not and plus a fanbase that is a loaded gun that was forced to tolorate the utter ignorance of the last regimes horrible decisions concerning keeping DA in for way way to many games without even being benched...

 

DA likely wont fit into dabolls offensive scheme anyways...

[WPB Dawg Fan]

I find it funny how short sighted the pundits are...even the local ones: Like this one from the OBR

 

Quarterbacks: He Said, She Said

(Getty Images)

 

By Site Staff

 

Posted Apr 10, 2009

 

 

Despite the Browns denials, there continues to be a buzz around the team's quarterbacks...

 

The game of "he said, he said" continues to swirl around the Browns' quarterbacks. The Browns insist Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson will be on the roster to compete for a starting job in training camp, but until that happens, the trade rumors will continue.

 

The Jets, Lions and Buccaneers are teams likely looking for a quarterback, and according to reports, the Broncos preferred Quinn to Kyle Orton before they acquired Orton and three draft picks from the Bears for Jay Cutler.

 

There are reports general manager George Kokinis and coach Eric Mangini are not thrilled with either of their quarterbacks and they are considering using the fifth pick in the draft on Southern California quarterback Mark Sanchez.

 

The argument could be made the Browns would be giving up on Quinn too quickly unless Mangini and Kokinis are absolutely convinced he will never be anything special. Quinn started only three games in the chaotic 2008 season and he broke the tip of the index finger on his throwing hand in the second.

 

Sometimes teams rush to judgment too quickly. In 1987 the Buccaneers had the first pick in the draft. They took Vinny Testaverde and traded Steve Young to the 49ers for a second-round draft pick and a fourth-round pick. They were convinced Young was a bust, but Bill Walsh thought Young had potential and made the trade, though the 49ers already had Joe Montana. Young went on to have a stellar career with the 49ers and is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

 

Anderson his convinced the fans don't want him; he doesn't have Quinn's polish, he isn't a fashion model as Quinn is, he didn't go to Notre Dame (he went to Oregon State) and he wasn't a first-round draft choice. He did throw 29 touchdown passes in 2007, but that doesn't seem to matter to fans.

 

Last week the Chicago Sun-Times reported Cutler could've nixed a trade to the Browns because he did not want to play for Mangini. Cutler is represented by Bus Cook, who also represents Brett Favre. A few days later, Bus said the report was untrue; he said Cutler had no opinion of Mangini.

 

They take the "the Browns are not thrilled with either QB" to heart...and the rumors that they like Sanchez....all while dismissing the comments from 'reliable' sources that the Broncos wanted Quinn over Orton and the Browns nixed it.

 

If the Browns were really indifferent about either QB, then that trade would likely have happened. The Browns would have walked away with a first rounder and would have settled the QB debate in one move. Brilliant. In fact, it is so brilliant that the ONLY explanation as to why the move WASN'T made is that the Browns are NOT indifferent on Quinn...and quite possible on DA as well.

 

Further....with absolutely NOTHING coming out of Berea that the ManKok don't want to leak...it can easily be surmised that the 'interest' in Sanchez is a ploy to increase the likelihood that another team will be willing to trade into the 5th slot to grab the USC QB.

 

If nothing else, the silence screaming from Berea is making other teams nervous over not having a clue as to which direction they are going. The claimed 'willingness to trade anyone' doesn't give teams the ability to dismiss ANY rumors.

 

It creates an environment where other teams have to COME TO THE BROWNS if they are interested in a player...and that puts the Browns in a advantageous position at the bargaining table.

 

I like it..and I am liking it more and more as the days go by.

 

Basically, teams have NO IDEA if we are going forward with DA, Quinn, OR Sanchez as our desired QB...and that has to make them nervous...imagine if we are sitting here with all 3 after the 5th pick. Do you really think a trade WON'T get done???