OldBrownsFan Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Only one vote will matter, and that is on November 8, 2016 when Trump demolishes the lizard lady. I would like to see Trump prepare a little better for the next debate. If he would have done more to prepare for the last debate he probably could have avoided some of his mistakes such as spending too much time playing defense and not taking the opportunities when he had them such as when the topic was cyber war and Trump never even mentioned Clinton putting our national security at risk by having an unsecured private email server which the FBI director said was less secure than Gmail. Trump did alright on the last debate but a little more time in preparation would have really helped him and I hope he prepares better for the next two debates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Cysko Kid Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Nobody can say that debate was a tie (or Trump won) if they are real Americans who truly care about the welfare of our nation. One has a plan to lead the country and the other brags about how smart he is for not paying his share of taxes which support the military and vets that he claims is underfunded. Fuck hillary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpkin Eater Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Bias in science in unavoidable, that's about the first thing they teach in science class. Science then is all about reducing bias which the polls that I referenced have done for over 2 decades. These polls are verified through many different measures and most accurately reflect the subjective nature of winning vs losing in debates. Fivethirtyeight for example (and in the source I presented) runs 10,000 simulations to project outcomes to reduce bias where possible. Of course, you're a damn moron so none of that is going to process but perhaps for others it will. That's the liberal way. Start losing an argument, throw out personal insults. Bias may be completely unavoidable but then again you don't set up your experiment to obtain a desired, biased result, you know like call 15% more democrats than republicans... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 jrb, you lost the discussion when you went off the deep end about bias being part of scientific study. you should call yourself names, like "liberal wingnut". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 I agree jrb, I'm pretty sure he has no idea how stats works. Fuck your numbers and fuck your science! MAGA BITCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHardBrownsFan Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpkin Eater Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 Yeah, the CNN poll was so scientific they published the names and phone numbers of every participant and you called them and verified the results, right Woodwrow? And of course it's completely unbiased to set up a survey to ask the people you know will give you the results you want to see. Let's survey the public on gay marriage, but we'll ask mainly southern baptists their opinion. Completely scientific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbedward Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 The CNN debate poll was inaccurate. 41% Democrats polled versus 26% Republicans and there was no weighting of the results. But that's because CNN was trying to push a certain narrative very hard, they created their own evidence that allowed them to push that narrative. Post-debate polls don't matter anyway. Some places have been saying that Trump won more voters despite "losing" the debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 The CNN debate poll was inaccurate. 41% Democrats polled versus 26% Republicans and there was no weighting of the results. But that's because CNN was trying to push a certain narrative very hard, they created their own evidence that allowed them to push that narrative. Post-debate polls don't matter anyway. Some places have been saying that Trump won more voters despite "losing" the debate. Right, but that's also why the link I referenced included many other polls and statistics as well. Just because one doesn't understand the narrative doesn't make it untrue. By every conceivable and proven measure Hilldawg was the "winner". You're exactly right though, it really doesn't matter that much in the long run. I just don't get why it's so damn hard to admit that maybe, just maybe this is true. Edit: Here's another good article about it for your consideration: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-early-polls-suggest-a-post-debate-bounce-for-clinton/?ex_cid=2016-forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 you ever debate, JRB? every have training in it? on a college level? I have, and just my opinion - Trump won and it wasn't close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 https://youtu.be/DE4sQc70N44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 Yeah, the CNN poll was so scientific they published the names and phone numbers of every participant and you called them and verified the results, right Woodwrow? And of course it's completely unbiased to set up a survey to ask the people you know will give you the results you want to see. Let's survey the public on gay marriage, but we'll ask mainly southern baptists their opinion. Completely scientific. I don't believe I said anything about CNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 you ever debate, JRB? every have training in it? on a college level? I have, and just my opinion - Trump won and it wasn't close. Actually, I sure did. I was in Model UN and Harvard model congress in high school and college. In my opinion Hilldawg won and it wasn't close. That's also what the markets and numerous (not just CNN) scientific-based polls suggest as well. The thing is that the old woman should have won people, she's a career politician in her element. Trump was never going to win in the debate arena, just like Hillary will never win the rhetoric area over Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbedward Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 The only way "hilldawg won and it wasn't close" is if you were watching through anti-seizure blue lens glasses. Trump won the first 30 minutes particularly on trade, then dropped off after that - he over-defended himself against tax return questions, iraq war question, and birther question. Hillary didn't get a single exclusive question, let alone a tough question. Trump will need to turn up the pressure next debate. And are people really referring to her as Hilldawg now? I guess it's appropriate since she looks like and acts like a dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 Actually, I sure did. I was in Model UN and Harvard model congress in high school and college. In my opinion Hilldawg won and it wasn't close. That's also what the markets and numerous (not just CNN) scientific-based polls suggest as well. The thing is that the old woman should have won people, she's a career politician in her element. Trump was never going to win in the debate arena, just like Hillary will never win the rhetoric area over Trump. great. Now I can ask you to explain how you came to your conclusion that higgardly won, LOL, on whatever criteria you used. Then I will explain how I came to my conclusion. I can't go first, because that would influence how you do. If you want, I will email how I figured it to several members of the board today, so I can't have been influenced with how you judged it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 The only way "hilldawg won and it wasn't close" is if you were watching through anti-seizure blue lens glasses. Trump won the first 30 minutes particularly on trade, then dropped off after that - he over-defended himself against tax return questions, iraq war question, and birther question. Hillary didn't get a single exclusive question, let alone a tough question. Trump will need to turn up the pressure next debate. And are people really referring to her as Hilldawg now? I guess it's appropriate since she looks like and acts like a dog. I call her hilldawg because I hate her and that's how South Park made fun of her. Look guys, if you aren't going to believe in the scientific polls, market swings, and elections odds (all based on the best analytic-based polling available for this type of thing) that say Hillary won, so be it. But I base my educated opinion on that information more than a snap poll on the internet. I don't care who won or lost, in the end I don't think it matters. It's not like I wanted her to even win or lose, but the most accurate evidence available by people way smarter than me at this stuff points to the fact she did. I would be saying the same thing if Trump won by those metrics, but he didn't-plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHardBrownsFan Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 The only way "hilldawg won and it wasn't close" is if you were watching through anti-seizure blue lens glasses. Trump won the first 30 minutes particularly on trade, then dropped off after that - he over-defended himself against tax return questions, iraq war question, and birther question. Hillary didn't get a single exclusive question, let alone a tough question. Trump will need to turn up the pressure next debate. And are people really referring to her as Hilldawg now? I guess it's appropriate since she looks like and acts like a dog. But if he said she won, she won, dig? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbedward Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 I could agree that she won but I don't think "it wasn't close" is accurate. I think Trump mostly went out there to prove he wasn't crazy and could be on the same stage as someone who's been in politics forever and look competent. At that, he succeeded. And I'd be tempted to say he won on the economy and trade issue part of the debate, which is what most Americans tend to care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrb12711 Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 I could agree that she won but I don't think "it wasn't close" is accurate. I think Trump mostly went out there to prove he wasn't crazy and could be on the same stage as someone who's been in politics forever and look competent. At that, he succeeded. And I'd be tempted to say he won on the economy and trade issue part of the debate, which is what most Americans tend to care about. The reason I said that is because 4 different scientific polls had her "winning" by at least +11 (see the fivethirtyeight article above). The way the markets moved certainly suggested a solid "win" in the opinions of the people in that sector too. Again, this isn't a celebration from my end, just what the data pointed towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 http://www.ncid.us/consultation-3a size of the population. A sample size of a few thousand is plenty for practically any size population. Examples Gallup poll Most polls. PROs Extremely accurate. CONs Taps raw, debilitated public opinion based on a casual impression of sound bites and headlines. Results can be manipulated by the media by taking care in how the issue is presented to the public. So what you have, is a hillary favoring hack moderator, and "scientific" who really knows? The poll that matters is at the voting booths. And as far as winning, Trump won simply based on representing himself well, using plenty of legit facts to make several points, and used counter-evidence to counter higgardly's attacks. Higgardly relied on pleasing her radical base, and her well designed quips meant nothing to the debate process, except for making liberals happy she got a chance to zing Trump a few times. To say hillary won is nonsense - unless you design your criteria to fit her performance, and to not fit Trumps. I don't judge winning based on polls, JRB. I judge winning on my criteria. Still waiting - what is your criteria for judging that higgardly "won" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpkin Eater Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 Polls are not really scientific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpkin Eater Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 http://wmbriggs.com/post/4488/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 You should actually read that, instead of just googling the phrase you wanted to see and then posting the article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpkin Eater Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 I did read it. Care to elaborate on your comment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 Let's start with this, what exactly were you hoping to get out of the link? What exactly did you want to prove? I'm pretty sure you just want an out to ignore all Data you disagree with, no matter how legitimate it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 In the L.A. Times daily tracking poll, Donald Trump scored a record high, leading Hillary Clinton 47.8% to 41.1% -- a lead of 6.7 points. Rasmussen has Mr. Trump leading by 5 percentage points nationally, and even Reuters has him leading by two points. In North Carolina, Fox News has Mr. Trump leading by 5, Monmouth has him up 8 in Iowa, while CNN has him leading by 5 points in Ohio and 4 in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 "only polls that WE LIKE matter" the old liberal knee-jerkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbedward Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 RCP averages have Trump ahead in NV, CO, NC, OH, and IA And the LA Times tracking poll shows a Trump post-debate surge, the UPI tracking poll showed a -1/2% for Trump. Reuters had the biggest Dem oversampling of any poll I've seen this election, +10% - not surprising from a Rothschild rag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 "only polls that WE LIKE matter" the old liberal knee-jerkieTrump supporters were literally calling every poll unfair and a MSM conspiracy when he was easily losing months ago... When you post a poll from Drudge, I'm going to call it out. That doesn't mean I think every poll Trump is winning in is bullshit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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