Selling Time

[Beanpot]

Jesus, Fausto looks shot. Columbus may be calling for him the way he's pitched of late, injury related or not. What a frustrating season.

 

Verducci notes that based on history, it's not going to get better any time soon:

 

With two months in the books, it's time for certain teams to sell

 

Welcome to June. This is your wake up call.

 

Think your team that stumbled through the first two months can still make the playoffs? Think again. While we all might easily remember the comeback of the 2005 Astros, who began June at 19-32 and wound up in the World Series, the reality is that teams that are bad for the first two months tend to remain bad, a corollary that the Cleveland Indians, for one, might do well to heed.

 

Here are the facts. There have been 104 teams to make the playoffs in the 13 full seasons of the wild-card era. Exactly three of them, or 2.9 percent, were worse than five games below .500 when June began. Here are the three outliers:

 

1. 2005 Astros (19-32 start; 89-73 final record).

2. 2007 Cubs (22-29; 85-77).

3. 2007 Yankees (22-29; 94-68).

 

This is very bad news for the Indians, Athletics, Nationals, Pirates, Astros, Diamondbacks and Rockies. One word of advice: sell. Better to make players available now, especially for players on the last year of deals. A four-month rental has more value than a two-month rental.

 

What about the teams with records only slightly worse than .500? The news is better, but not by much. Only 12 teams (11.5 percent of wild-card playoff teams) made the playoffs after entering June with a losing record. Sorry, too, Marlins.

 

The news is especially bad for AL laggards. Only four of the 52 AL playoff teams (2007 Yankees, 2006 Athletics, 2006 Twins and 2002 Athletics) entered June with a losing record. And no AL team has won the pennant in the wild-card era after starting June with a losing record. So class dismissed, Rays, Orioles, White Sox, Twins, Royals and Mariners.

 

Still, most teams do their best to keep up appearances, lest they signal to their fans even before school is out and prime-attendance season is in that their team has no shot. And so you will hear, "We'll hit when the weather warms up" ... "We're a second half team" ... "Wait until our star pitcher comes back from [insert catastrophic arm injury here]; it will be our trade-deadline acquisition" ... and other bromides of the desperate.

 

Take Cleveland, for instance. (Why not? The Magic did, as well as a team in every major sport since 1964.) The Indians began June at 22-30 with their best player, Grady Sizemore, on the disabled list with an inflamed elbow that could keep him out from two to six weeks, and then they promptly lost their first game of the month. Now, the Indians can choose to believe they will become only the second of 108 playoff teams to make the postseason after starting June eight games or more under .500, or they can start shopping the likes of Mark DeRosa, Carl Pavano, Jamey Carroll and Rafael Betancourt. (Victor Martinez, the definition of a franchise player, and Cliff Lee, an ace under a good contract, can't be had without a ransom note right now).

 

"There's nothing going on right now other than preparation," Indians GM Mark Shapiro said about what path Cleveland might take. "We have been a preemptive team in the market in past years. But this is too early to be preemptive."

 

Shapiro was preemptive in trading aces Bartolo Colon in 2002 (June 27 in a deal that brought him Sizemore and Lee) and, to a lesser extent, CC Sabathia in 2008 (July 7). Rarely will you find a significant deal in early June. Why? Again, teams are reluctant to make a move that will be interpreted as a public surrender, even when the odds suggest it might be the prudent thing to do. "There is very little [trade talk] going on now," said another GM.

 

And so the Indians will play the optimism game for another month: pitchers Jake Westbrook and Aaron Laffey are working their way back from injuries, Travis Hafner is coming off the DL and maybe Sizemore doesn't need arthroscopic surgery on his elbow. Then there is the hope that the AL Central is a very forgiving division, an idea that might be foolish in light of how well the Tigers have pitched and played defense. The Tigers have not used a starting pitcher this season older than 27 and began the month third in the league in defensive efficiency, a measurement of how well teams turn batted balls in play into outs. (Not coincidentally, division leaders Texas, Detroit and New York ranked 1-3-5 in that category.) Detroit is, in fact, the one team in the AL Central capable of running away with the division.

 

"Up until very recently we were more in the mode of looking to add," Shapiro said. "I've probably slowed the effort to try to acquire. We're probably more in the middle ground right now. People may think we're crazy, but we still like the core of this team."

 

Cleveland has been hit somewhat hard with injuries (Westbrook, Laffey, Hafner, Anthony Reyes), but the Indians' pitching staff has the worst ERA in the league, the worst walk rate and the worst WHIP. Cleveland already has run through 22 pitchers, the most in the league. In short, their won-lost record is no fluke, even with a good offense (third in runs, first in on-base percentage).

 

Would-be contenders that would appear to be even more buried by the first two months include Oakland, Houston, Arizona and Colorado. In some ways, such teams are now competing against one another: Who will be first to the trade market? Despite what playoff history suggests, the answer might not come until next month.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writ...02/june.wakeup/

 

Beanpot

 

 

[Beanpot]

Castro wrote about a possible DeRosa deal earlier this week. I've long been a fan of Perez and would be damn happy to have that guy in our gear:

 

Could a DeRosa deal be in the Cards?

 

St. Louis general manager John Mozeliak is looking for a third baseman. And in describing what he's looking for to reporters earlier today, he might as well have just said, "Mark DeRosa."

 

The Cardinals need a third baseman because Troy Glaus has shoulder ligament damage. The most updated timetable for his return is mid-July or early August.

 

Basically, what Mozeliak is looking for is a right-handed bat (check) who can play third base (check) until Glaus returns, at which point said bat can slot in elsewhere in the field (check).

 

The Indians, as you know, have had DeRosa basically on the block for a couple weeks now, because his value to them isn't anywhere near what it was before Jhonny Peralta moved to third base. So this could be an interesting situation to watch in the next couple days.

 

In return for DeRosa, the Indians would want Major League-ready pitching. I'm told the Cardinals could potentially make right-handed starter Mitchell Boggs available in a trade, but what the Cards really have to offer is an army of right-handed relievers, such as P.J. Walters or Chris Perez . Jason Motte is probably less likely to be dealt.

 

We'll see what happens, if anything.

 

In the meantime, just a note that I will not be with the club in Minnesota, so the blog will be lineup- and minutia-less for a few days.

 

http://castrovince.mlblogs.com/archives/20..._be_in_the.html

[CIMO.]

Cleveland has been hit somewhat hard with injuries (Westbrook, Laffey, Hafner, Anthony Reyes)

 

and Sizemore, and Cabrera, and Betancourt, and Scott Lewis. And Victor's banged up. Yeah, I'd say we have been somewhat hampered.

 

 

It must be tough for Shapiro and co. to concede defeat at the beginning of June, but I don't think fans will be discouraged to see DeRosa flipped for some good pitching or Pavano for some good prospects. The only players off limits in terms of fan reaction, to me, are Victor, Grady and Lee. I can't see anyone else getting dealt doing much to attendance.

[Beanpot]

and Sizemore, and Cabrera, and Betancourt, and Scott Lewis. And Victor's banged up. Yeah, I'd say we have been somewhat hampered.

 

I like Shapiro as much as you do, but this team has been somewhat hampered by its lack of talent more so than its injuries. Most of the injuries have occurred after we've pretty much been gasping for air after having won 14ish games by the middle of May.

 

They're adding up like mad, sure, but we're not hampered by 'em. Not after that start.

 

Beanpot

 

[Kosar_For_President]

and Sizemore, and Cabrera, and Betancourt, and Scott Lewis. And Victor's banged up. Yeah, I'd say we have been somewhat hampered.

 

 

It must be tough for Shapiro and co. to concede defeat at the beginning of June, but I don't think fans will be discouraged to see DeRosa flipped for some good pitching or Pavano for some good prospects. The only players off limits in terms of fan reaction, to me, are Victor, Grady and Lee. I can't see anyone else getting dealt doing much to attendance.

 

They were sucking before these guys got hurt. The only thing good to come out of this is that we will see some of our future players this year sooner then later.

[rich4eagle]

They were sucking before these guys got hurt. The only thing good to come out of this is that we will see some of our future players this year sooner then later.

 

 

Beans you are great baseball guy but this time your love for Shapiro needs culled. He is ORDINARY and ORDINARY after Dolan produces, well what we got. The Indians are middle of the road and still living off the great previous and a single recent run to nowhere miracle. Until the strategy changes we will never be big time for a long time exept in miracle years.

 

I remember back in the early days when the Browns came back and sitting in the stands the Indians were competing for a playoff spot..........the GUY BEHIND ME SAID HART SUCKS AND GOTTA GO

 

oh boy, my mind said, how dumb is that...................and now we live it

[Beanpot]

btw, my last if it ever gets posted did not have the waver that time is immaterial when you run a sight based on demonics and censorship

 

I have no clue why your posts are continually yanked over here. Just know that I'm not the one pulling them. FWIW, my love for Shapiro has been tempered quite a bit. I'm still in like with the guy and happy we have him, but the blinders are forever off.

 

Beanpot

 

[Beanpot]

Forget Columbus, Fausto is going to Arizona and Hafner is back:

 

Indians send Carmona down, haul Hafner up

Reuters

Friday, June 5, 2009 3:13 PM

 

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The Cleveland Indians sent down starting pitcher Fausto Carmona and called up designated hitter Travis Hafner on Friday as they try to climb out of last place in the American League Central.

 

Carmona, a 19-game winner for the Tribe in 2007, had control problems this season, walking 41 batters in 60 2/3 innings in posting a 2-6 mark with a 7.42 earned run average.

 

The 25-year-old right-hander, signed to a four-year, $15 million deal after going 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA, was sent to the rookie-level Arizona Summer League to work on his delivery.

 

Carmona missed two months last season with a hip strain and slipped to an 8-7 record with a 5.44 ERA.

 

Hafner returns to the Indians (23-33) in time for the weekend series against the White Sox after spending more than a month rehabilitating an injured right shoulder that limited him to five homers and 24 RBIs in 54 games last year.

 

In a rehab assignment with Triple-A Columbus, Hafner batted .333 (13-for-39) with one homer and eight runs batted in.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...9060502275.html

[Beanpot]

I can't see anyone else getting dealt doing much to attendance.

 

I completely agree with this.

 

While not butts-in-the-seats related and just for the hell of it, television ratings are down 25.8% compared to last year. I'm sure the Cavs have a bunch to do with that while the rest is due to our level of suck.

 

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/index...200906010301-01

 

Beanpot

[Beanpot]

Even though he's on the active roster, it looks like Pronk is going to be very limited for some time:

 

CHICAGO -- Travis Hafner was back in the lineup Friday for the first time since April 28, but he's a long way from playing every day. The Indians activated Hafner after sending right-hander Fausto Carmona to their Arizona Rookie League team in Goodyear.

 

Manager Eric Wedge said Hafner can't play three or four days in a row because of the pain in his surgically repaired right shoulder.

 

"If we can stay of his shoulder physically, we'll see if we can ramp him up later in the season," said Wedge. "We're a better team with him in the lineup and he realizes it."

 

Hafner batted in the sixth spot Friday.

 

"I'll play a couple days in a row to start," said Hafner. "I just have to watch the volume of swings I take. When we're at home, there will be days I'll hit in the cage and not with the team so I don't have to warm up twice."

 

Last year Hafner played only 57 games because of the shoulder. He had surgery in October and played the first month with the Indians before going on the disabled.

 

"It's not like last year when the shoulder muscles shutdown," said Hafner. "It's just a matter of figuring out how much hitting I can do."

 

Hafner is hitting .270 (17-for-63) with five doubles, four homers and eight RBI with the Indians. He hit .333 (13-for-39) with four doubles, one homer and eight RBI during his rehab at Class AAA Columbus. His rehab was interrupted twice due to back and shoulder problems.

 

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2...g_travis_1.html

 

Beanpot

[Beanpot]

On Carmona, he's clearly being sent down (way down) to work on more than his mechanics. The Arizona League wont even get under way for a couple of weeks so this is pretty much Spring Training Part Two for the guy.

 

Over at the terrific and often updated Circle the Bases blog, Gleeman notes that:

 

As part of the contract extension that Carmona signed in April of last year, the Indians owe him $4.9 million next season and $6.1 million in 2011, and then have $28 million worth of team options from 2012-2014. Locking players up before they hit arbitration is a strategy that the Indians and other teams have used successfully over the years, but Carmona is looking like an example of how it can backfire.

 

http://bases.newsvine.com/_news/2009/06/05...category=sports

 

Beanpot

[SoCalBrownsFan]

On Carmona, he's clearly being sent down (way down) to work on more than his mechanics. The Arizona League wont even get under way for a couple of weeks so this is pretty much Spring Training Part Two for the guy.

 

Over at the terrific and often updated Circle the Bases blog, Gleeman notes that:

 

As part of the contract extension that Carmona signed in April of last year, the Indians owe him $4.9 million next season and $6.1 million in 2011, and then have $28 million worth of team options from 2012-2014. Locking players up before they hit arbitration is a strategy that the Indians and other teams have used successfully over the years, but Carmona is looking like an example of how it can backfire.

 

http://bases.newsvine.com/_news/2009/06/05...category=sports

 

Beanpot

 

Wow, I can't believe he is benig sent that far down. Say goodbye to all the great MLB perks for awhile Fausto. Can we ship Wedge down to the low minors now please, or better yet, can him.

 

[CIMO.]

I like Shapiro as much as you do, but this team has been somewhat hampered by its lack of talent more so than its injuries. Most of the injuries have occurred after we've pretty much been gasping for air after having won 14ish games by the middle of May.

 

They're adding up like mad, sure, but we're not hampered by 'em. Not after that start.

 

Beanpot

 

Very true, I was just taken back a bit that the writer brought up injuries, and only mentioned a few pretty random names.

 

I'm an admittedly pretty big softy on judging GMs (and managers for that matter), but I can't really blame this season on Shaps. Ever since '07, the talent has been there but the timing is just absolutely impeccably bad. Whether it's CC collapsing in the playoffs, Lee ending '07 in Buffalo then winning the Cy in a non-playoff year, all of our RBI guys whiffing in April and May (both of the last two years), or all the in-game stuff happening over and over...when the starter's dominant and the bullpen blows it... when the lineup puts up 8 runs, the pitching gives up 9...pitchers hold a team to 2 runs and we get shut out, etc.

 

 

Even at the organizational level, we have some potential aces in the minors but none were ready when we lost CC. By the time some of these guys reach the majors we'll probably be a completely different team again.

 

It's tough being a GM of a midmarket baseball team. We basically have to sign everyone too early which will undoubtedly lead to some whiffs, and whenever we end up with someone like CC it's only a matter of time until he bolts. And of course CC ended up being our only good prospect when he was coming into his own, so a lot of his good years with us were completely wasted.

 

I'm going a dozen different directions right now (what was the original topic again?), but it all comes down to timing. If we can get Rondon and De La Cruz to the majors and they click at the same time as Santana and LaPorta and Weglarz and Brantley...we'll have a team to be excited about. If the pitchers take longer to develop and the hitters come and go, well we're back to square one. But it's not something I would pin on the GM.

 

 

 

So, um, yes. Shapiro...is good. However I got started on this.

[Booker]

Maybe I'm being TOO optimistic, but...

 

The schedule for the next 30-40 games isn't a beating. We're done with the AL East for the most part and the Tigers just got started with them and we saw how that went (swept by the BoSox). The Indians are only 6 games back and I wouldn't like to think they can play any worse than they have been. The rotation is not great by any means, but Pavano and Lee are in good form. Sowers looks like he turned the corner, and maybe Huff is starting to settle down. Also, the Indians could make a move for another starter if things start to brighten up for the Tribe. Don't forget Westbrook is coming back, but nobody knows how effective he will be.

 

If anyone is going to run away with the division, I'd say it would be the Twins. They're the team the scares me the most amongst the divisional opponent's.

 

Just think, the Indians are only 6 back.

 

The Indians are only 6 back.

 

The Indians are only 6 back.

 

 

 

 

[Beanpot]

Just think, the Indians are only 6 back.

 

Damn Booker, I had no idea. I haven't even bothered looking at the standings much these last few weeks. I mean, we have the worst record in the league and we're only 6 back? I'm not optimistic at all given the current level of talent on this team (agree with you about the Twins), but I just assumed we were double-digits back by this point.

 

Beanpot