Our Bet, Draft specuation

[hoorta]

3 hours ago, The Gipper said:

OK, sure.  Like I said, forget that we have a bet going.....As I said,  this discussion on the radio involved a potential bidding war between the Redskins and Giants for the services of  Young.   See below- there's NOT going to be a bidding war for Chase. Total fallacy. IF  the Bengals hold still,  then the Redskins currently have the #2....and they would need to do nothing.  But, as mentioned, what if the Giants were willing to give up a host in order to jump the Skins.  

The difference between this situation and the Luck situation would be that there,  any team that was offering to trade with Indy was in order to  get Luck.  Here, the trade offers would not be to get the QB the Bengals may want, but another player.    The issue could be:  Can the Bengals  eat their cake and have it too:    Could they still get  Burrows...AND  get something very valuable in addition.   If the Bengals were shrewd (something they have never been accused of)...they could even say:   Washington, give us your number 2 pick plus  X,  in order that we do not trade down with NYG.   They get Burrows and X...whatever that may be. Their 2d round or 3rd round pick...or a future pick. 

That's where the hot air comes in Gipper- and whoever was speculating it doesn't know what the Sam Heck they're talking about. There is absolutely ZERO, no chance in hell the Bengals would trade down to the #4 hole. Because- of the possibility some QB needy team could jump up to the Lions #3 pick and take Burrow. <POOF> THERE GOES JOE. And I've already said- the Lions are stuck with Stafford for 2020, because of the $31 million cap hit on his contract.  You can be certain Detroit's phone would be ringing off the hook if Burrow was still available at #3. Not only that if Young did go #1, the Redskins would be fielding deals for the #2 pick, because they already have Haskins. Yeah- and the Bengals would trade back up from #4 to #3- but the Bengals GM isn't Kevin Costner, and this isn't a recreation of Draft Day. Except maybe the guy suggesting something like that imagined it was.   

Two other things that doofus wasn't considering. NO team is going to break the bank for a defensive player, regardless of his potential. Young isn't going to be valued that highly- except maybe in your mind.  In case you missed it- Michigan pretty much neutralized him with double team blocking. Secondly- the Redskins will be dead certain the Bengals are taking Burrow, so why would they want to waste draft capital?

So the Bengals will take Joe, and the Redskins will be sitting pretty in the second hole and take Young. It's just too damn simple. Looks like the silly season is starting early. 

The reality of the situation is you only trade up to #1 if you're taking a QB- the cost in draft capital is far too high to even remotely consider taking anything else.  

PS- Historically, the Bengals don't do draft day trades, especially in the first round. I can't recall them ever doing so.    

[The Gipper]

OK, we shall see.

[lodilobo]

On 12/24/2019 at 5:40 PM, The Gipper said:

The original proposition was the Bengals draft young at 1 vs the Bengals draft burrow at 1. Not young will be drafted at 1 vs Burrow will be drafted at 1. So you're statement above isn't sticking to the original proposition.  Its changing the original proposition. 

I agree that by the Bengals trading  the #1 pick, the original proposition is changed.   We/I never thought about the possibility of the Bengals trading down until I heard it stated on the radio. 

Nope....if the Bengals don't pick Young at #1, you lose. It's that simple. Quit trying to manipulate the jury.

[The Gipper]

2 hours ago, lodilobo said:

Nope....if the Bengals don't pick Young at #1, you lose. It's that simple. Quit trying to manipulate the jury.

And if they trade the pick and don't pick  Burrows at #1, then I win?  Right?  It goes both ways. 

[Westside Steve]

Maybe I'm wrong but this look like a draft thread. Maybe The word draft in the title threw me.

😏

WSS

[The Gipper]

13 minutes ago, Westside Steve said:

Maybe I'm wrong but this look like a draft thread. Maybe The word draft in the title threw me.

😏

WSS

Yea, maybe, a bit of a different one though. 

[hoorta]

5 hours ago, lodilobo said:

Nope....if the Bengals don't pick Young at #1, you lose. It's that simple. Quit trying to manipulate the jury.

And if the Bengals trade the pick, it's a wash.    No team in their right mind is going to trade up to #1 just to take Young. 

[The Gipper]

1 hour ago, hoorta said:

And if the Bengals trade the pick, it's a wash.    No team in their right mind is going to trade up to #1 just to take Young. 

Our bet aside, why not?   He is considered the most dominant defensive player to be available since....I don't know what.  I think he rated higher than Miles Garrett.  If a franchise QB is not your necessity.....but a monster DE is.....then why not try for him? 

Maybe you can say that the Bengals should never trade the rights to Burrows, and maybe you are right....but that does not mean that other teams should not inquire, or even make offers.    Right now, per early reports, those two:   Burrows and  Young are the creme de la creme of available talent it seems. 

It seems possible that teams at the bottom can be as competitive as teams at the top.   Teams want that #1 seed.....and, this year, teams want either that #1 or #2  draft pick.    As good, perhaps, as they may be, the likes of Jeff Okudah DB, Andrew Thomas OT,  Jerry Jeudy WR,  are not considered the prospects that   Burrows and Young are,   are they? 

[hoorta]

1 hour ago, The Gipper said:

Our bet aside, why not?   He is considered the most dominant defensive player to be available since....I don't know what.  I think he rated higher than Miles Garrett.  If a franchise QB is not your necessity.....but a monster DE is.....then why not try for him? 

Maybe you can say that the Bengals should never trade the rights to Burrows, and maybe you are right....but that does not mean that other teams should not inquire, or even make offers.    Right now, per early reports, those two:   Burrows and  Young are the creme de la creme of available talent it seems. 

It seems possible that teams at the bottom can be as competitive as teams at the top.   Teams want that #1 seed.....and, this year, teams want either that #1 or #2  draft pick.    As good, perhaps, as they may be, the likes of Jeff Okudah DB, Andrew Thomas OT,  Jerry Jeudy WR,  are not considered the prospects that   Burrows and Young are,   are they? 

With the #1 pick, Cinci can start talking to prospects as soon as they have an agent. Of course other teams can ask the Bengals what they want for the #1 pick, and the Bengals can ask for something so ridiculous, no one will give them what they want.  AND- here's why the Giants won't- and can't move up from #4 to #1 JUST for Young. The draft value chart says it would cost them their #4, the second and third round picks this year, and a first next year. That's just to move up three spots. QB needy teams lower down in the draft order won't possibly be able to offer the Bengals enough to move up that high. 

Young- best since Kahlil Mack. Same size as Garrett. We'll see how he's rated after the combine. Sure, clearly the best defensive prospect in a couple years. But as I said- 

1) The Bengals are much further along on defense as opposed to offense.

2) It's a damn near certainty Cinci is moving on from Dalton, they can trade or cut him in 2020 with no cap repercussions. (I'm seeing that almost dally down here in the local news) 

3) In the 2017 draft when Garrett with #1 overall, there wasn't a QB prospect anywhere close to where Joe is going to be rated. You can bet the ranch with 20\20 hindsight, based on current NFL production, the Browns would have taken Mahomes over Myles.  Pre draft Myles was a 7X prospect as opposed to Pat's 5X.  Shit, NFL.com thought he might go in the second round.

4) With Dalton gone- it's a foregone conclusion they're taking a QB. 

and we beat Mahomes to death in draft prospects - here's the negatives....  

WEAKNESSES

 Can be inconsistent in his approach. Needs to play inside the offense and show more discipline. Too eager to go big game hunting. Ravenous appetite for the explosive play can also bring unwanted trouble. Willingness to default to playground style appears to limit his ability to get into a consistent rhythm. Needs to improve anticipatory reads and learn to take what the defense gives him. Decision making can go from good to bad in a moment's notice. Operates from a narrow base and allows his upper body and arm to race ahead of his feet. Has a dip and wind-up in his standard release. Explosive delivery and follow-through causes some throws to sail. Needs better touch on intermediate and deep balls. Carries ball a little low in the pocket. Impatient. Will leave pocket prematurely rather than standing in and winning in rhythm. Better as a scrambler than pure runner. Looked a little less mobile in the open field this season.

[The Gipper]

Well you are saying that you think that Burrows is a lock at #1 to Bengals....and that  Young is a lock at #2.   Who then do the Lions and Giants go for?

Here is one top 5:

MOCK DRAFT

1	Cincinnati	Joe Burrow - QB
2	Washington	Chase Young - EDGE
3	Detroit	Andrew Thomas - OT
4	NY Giants	Jeffrey Okudah - CB
5	Miami Is Tagovailoa still a Top 5 choice?	Tua Tagovailoa - QB

[hoorta]

Regarding  Tua, it will depend a  bunch on what teams think about  his injury.  Freak  occurence  or red flag. OSUs Okodah is slated to go top 10. 

And I've already  said, draft slotting  is subject to  change based on the playoffs.  We'll see how  Young  fares Saturday  against  Clemson's  OT who's  probably the best offensive  lineman  he's gone up  against  all year. 

[The Gipper]

11 hours ago, hoorta said:

Regarding  Tua, it will depend a  bunch on what teams think about  his injury.  Freak  occurence  or red flag. OSUs Okodah is slated to go top 10. 

And I've already  said, draft slotting  is subject to  change based on the playoffs.  We'll see how  Young  fares Saturday  against  Clemson's  OT who's  probably the best offensive  lineman  he's gone up  against  all year. 

Or do you mean we will see how Clemsons offense of lineman fare against the best defensive lineman they face all year

[Tour2ma]

On 12/22/2019 at 7:30 PM, SdBacker80 said:

If the Bengals like Burrow they will not make a trade.  And if they see something they don’t like you turn the card in for Young. 
And If they got too greedy I would expect some QB starving team to jump ahead of them should they move out of the Top spot and try to take Burrow later. 
The only way the Bengals lose this draft is if they miss out on a chance for either Burrow or Young.

Odds are that they take Burrow, but... there's always a chance that they like another QB equally well or even slightly better.

Say they like Tua a lot and their Medical folks clear him. In that case they can trade down a few slots. If Hebert is there guy they can trade down further.

 

No way can I see them taking Young, with the QB talent in this draft and their need at the position.

[Tour2ma]

On 12/25/2019 at 12:49 PM, bjh2130 said:

Gipper you are definitely trying to muddy the waters in your original post in here you said that Larry said the BENGALS would take burrow at 1 and you said the BENGALS would take young at 1. Seems to be the bet was made based on who the BENGALS would pick at 1 not just who the pick at number 1 would be. If you made that exact bet in vegas and the Bengals traded out of the number 1 pick the bet would be void.

Are you sure about the Vegas thing?

Seems to me that if I put money on "Cin picks PlayerX #1 overall" and they don't for whatever reason, then I lose.

On 12/27/2019 at 9:30 AM, Westside Steve said:

Maybe I'm wrong but this look like a draft thread. Maybe The word draft in the title threw me.

lol... Nah.... it's a "Gipper-gotta-be-Gipper" thread.

 

[Tour2ma]

 

16 hours ago, hoorta said:

Regarding  Tua, it will depend a  bunch on what teams think about  his injury.  Freak  occurence  or red flag. OSUs Okodah is slated to go top 10. 

And I've already  said, draft slotting  is subject to  change based on the playoffs.  We'll see how  Young  fares Saturday  against  Clemson's  OT who's  probably the best offensive  lineman  he's gone up  against  all year. 

Young's stock doesn't depend on his production tonite... not in the slightest. He's going to be the first non-QB off the board.

 

Tua's interesting, because he was in the conversation for #1 overall before his hip dislocated... despite his prior injuries last season.

Apparently the repair of the hip went very well and a full recovery is expected. So it is likely that he will be medically cleared by both the League and every team that looks at him.

However, the questions every team will be left to contemplate is his injury history. Is he "injury prone"? 2018 saw him battle knee sprains much of the season before the late season surgical repair miracle of his ankle, which he then played on... obviously prematurely.

[hoorta]

5 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

 

Young's stock doesn't depend on his production tonite... not in the slightest. He's going to be the first non-QB off the board.

 

Tua's interesting, because he was in the conversation for #1 overall before his hip dislocated... despite his prior injuries last season.

Apparently the repair of the hip went very well and a full recovery is expected. So it is likely that he will be medically cleared by both the League and every team that looks at him.

However, the questions every team will be left to contemplate is his injury history. Is he "injury prone"? 2018 saw him battle knee sprains much of the season before the late season surgical repair miracle of his ankle, which he then played on... obviously prematurely.

Young did damn near zero tonight against quality competition.  he'll go high- but he's not superman sadly. Too bad OSU.  was Freddie calling the all out rush the punter that won the game for Clemson?  

[hoorta]

6 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Odds are that they take Burrow, but... there's always a chance that they like another QB equally well or even slightly better.

Say they like Tua a lot and their Medical folks clear him. In that case they can trade down a few slots. If Hebert is there guy they can trade down further.

 

No way can I see them taking Young, with the QB talent in this draft and their need at the position.

PS- after tonight- there is no way in hell the Bengals won't take Joe. I'll trade Baker for him right now, straight up. Better physical measurables, and Joe shows the same accuracy on the move.

[The Gipper]

16 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Are you sure about the Vegas thing?

Seems to me that if I put money on "Cin picks PlayerX #1 overall" and they don't for whatever reason, then I lose.

lol... Nah.... it's a "Gipper-gotta-be-Gipper" thread.

 

Yes, it is a Gipper gotta be Gipper thread:   ergo it is a smart, analytical, entertaining thread.

[bjh2130]

16 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Are you sure about the Vegas thing?

Seems to me that if I put money on "Cin picks PlayerX #1 overall" and they don't for whatever reason, then I lose.

Yeah im positive. On draft day you make bets on picks as they are happening.  I have had my money come back to me because of a trade on draft day. With the Bengals going on the clock if the bet is the exact same the only two options that would come up is burrow -200 young +800. If a trade happened the bet would be void as that wasn't one of the options given.  The only way you would lose your money on the bet is if pick traded was given odds.

[bjh2130]

11 hours ago, hoorta said:

Young did damn near zero tonight against quality competition.  he'll go high- but he's not superman sadly. Too bad OSU.  was Freddie calling the all out rush the punter that won the game for Clemson?  

I don't blame refs for losses but there were some questionable calls last night including that roughing call.  Roughing is when you hit the plant leg. It was clear 26 hit the punters kicking leg and should have only been running into. The targeting call was the correct call by rule however the rule needs to change. What number 44 for oklahoma did to Edwards-helare of lsu was an ejectable hit what 24 did to 16 last night was not. Take the 15 yards but don't eject a player just because the player being tackled braces for contact by dipping his head and that causes the helmet to helmet hit. The fumble was the most egregious call. Number 8 caught the ball with his left foot down,  right foot hits, he extends the ball away from his body (constitutes a football move), left foot hits, (3rd step constitutes a football move), he starts tucking the ball (you guessed it football move), and as his right foot hits (4th step) number 1 jars the ball loose. The fact they overturned the call on the field is mind boggling. If that happened on the sideline or in the endzone it is absolutely a touchdown. Terry mcauly, one of the most respected officials, addressed all these on his twitter and agrees with my takes. 

Ok all that being said it didn't cost osu the game. Clemson deserved the win and it was one hell of a ball game.  Osu had a chance and if number 17 continues his route on the last pass that got intercepted they likely score the go ahead td with 38 seconds left and that's what cost them the game. Hopefully the errors in officiating opens up a dialogue about some things in the offseason.

[gumby73]

13 minutes ago, bjh2130 said:

 The fumble was the most egregious call. Number 8 caught the ball with his left foot down,  right foot hits, he extends the ball away from his body (constitutes a football move), left foot hits, (3rd step constitutes a football move), he starts tucking the ball (you guessed it football move), and as his right foot hits (4th step) number 1 jars the ball loose. The fact they overturned the call on the field is mind boggling. If that happened on the sideline or in the endzone it is absolutely a touchdown. Terry mcauly, one of the most respected officials, addressed all these on his twitter and agrees with my takes. 

Ok all that being said it didn't cost osu the game. Clemson deserved the win and it was one hell of a ball game.  Osu had a chance and if number 17 continues his route on the last pass that got intercepted they likely score the go ahead td with 38 seconds left and that's what cost them the game. Hopefully the errors in officiating opens up a dialogue about some things in the offseason.

Well Done bjh^^ totally agree with these takes.. As a Buckeye Homer..The Bucks had golden opts to score more points in that first half as well.. 

[bjh2130]

7 hours ago, gumby73 said:

Well Done bjh^^ totally agree with these takes.. As a Buckeye Homer..The Bucks had golden opts to score more points in that first half as well.. 

Are you watching the Dallas Washington game?  Right before the half they ruled a pass incomplete it was reviewed and overturned because he got 3 steps down and 3rd step is a football move. I honestly don't know how that one got overturned last night.  If it was ruled incomplete on field and stood I don't think people would be as angry other than true buckeye homers. However they saw indisputable evidence that it wasn't a catch when if you pulled 1000 fans/refs that aren't a fan of either team involved I would bet that 60%+ saw it as a catch.  The fact that you have multiple officials like mcauly and blandino say it was a catch shows it wasn't indisputable.

[gumby73]

3 minutes ago, bjh2130 said:

Are you watching the Dallas Washington game?  Right before the half they ruled a pass incomplete it was reviewed and overturned because he got 3 steps down and 3rd step is a football move. I honestly don't know how that one got overturned last night.  If it was ruled incomplete on field and stood I don't think people would be as angry other than true buckeye homers. However they saw indisputable evidence that it wasn't a catch when if you pulled 1000 fans/refs that aren't a fan of either team involved I would bet that 60%+ saw it as a catch.  The fact that you have multiple officials like mcauly and blandino say it was a catch shows it wasn't indisputable.

I did see it..and laughed saying 'where was your crew last night'.. I truly hated the tone of the broadcast official all night..the football move included 2 square feet headed directly up the field, at real time too..Every break, when needed, went Clemson's way...maybe Dabo could toss a few 🙏 up for our browns.... Should be a good final..Joe vs. Bucks could have been epic  

[Tour2ma]

8 hours ago, bjh2130 said:

I don't blame refs for losses but there were some questionable calls last night including that roughing call.  Roughing is when you hit the plant leg. It was clear 26 hit the punters kicking leg and should have only been running into. The targeting call was the correct call by rule however the rule needs to change. What number 44 for oklahoma did to Edwards-helare of lsu was an ejectable hit what 24 did to 16 last night was not. Take the 15 yards but don't eject a player just because the player being tackled braces for contact by dipping his head and that causes the helmet to helmet hit. The fumble was the most egregious call. Number 8 caught the ball with his left foot down,  right foot hits, he extends the ball away from his body (constitutes a football move), left foot hits, (3rd step constitutes a football move), he starts tucking the ball (you guessed it football move), and as his right foot hits (4th step) number 1 jars the ball loose. The fact they overturned the call on the field is mind boggling. If that happened on the sideline or in the endzone it is absolutely a touchdown. Terry mcauly, one of the most respected officials, addressed all these on his twitter and agrees with my takes.

Agree with every aspect of your post... but you did not address one point.

Nothing irritates me more than a player ducking himself into a helmet hit that gets called. Last nite we saw a 6'6 QB make himself 5'6 in the headlights of oncoming traffic. The only thing Wade did wrong in my view is drop his head... fully... so the crown led. Gotta see what you hit. Had Wade lead with his facemask there'd have been no call.

[The Gipper]

2 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Agree with every aspect of your post... but you did not address one point.

Nothing irritates me more than a player ducking himself into a helmet hit that gets called. Last nite we saw a 6'6 QB make himself 5'6 in the headlights of oncoming traffic. The only thing Wade did wrong in my view is drop his head... fully... so the crown led. Gotta see what you hit. Had Wade lead with his facemask there'd have been no call.

I say that when a QB drops his head like that, then you bring your knee up and ram it into his grill.  Can't get called for head to head for that.....and it may be more effective at dealing a harmful blow.  

[The Gipper]

So!   I am not the only one speculating about the Bengals dealing the pick:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2020-nfl-draft-rumors-breaking-down-whether-panthers-could-trade-for-no-1-pick-to-draft-lsus-joe-burrow/?fbclid=IwAR06-32au9A9De8RQ_MYOCovrpZPFyYM8xlr1HD_f2019hcXk6HXmg08noc

Joe Brady to Panthers as OC fuels this speculation.

[hoorta]

1 hour ago, The Gipper said:

So!   I am not the only one speculating about the Bengals dealing the pick:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2020-nfl-draft-rumors-breaking-down-whether-panthers-could-trade-for-no-1-pick-to-draft-lsus-joe-burrow/?fbclid=IwAR06-32au9A9De8RQ_MYOCovrpZPFyYM8xlr1HD_f2019hcXk6HXmg08noc

Joe Brady to Panthers as OC fuels this speculation.

Please Gipper lame click bait. From the article...   RTFLMAO....  BTW, It would take the Panthers entire draft and a couple extra #1s to make it happen.....  

"Let me preface this by saying I don't think it will happen. The probability of it going down is extremely low. "

"I was trying to think about which quarterback will grade above (FIFY below) and I think it's everybody since Andrew Luck. I think he'll have the strongest grade. (PS me and Tour happen to think the same thing) 

Would the Bengals make this trade?I don't think so. Burrow is a rare prospect. In my opinion, given the Bengals' need at quarterback, Burrow's ascension and his status as a local player, it would be tough to bail on taking him first overall. "

Furthermore, ESPN'S draft guru Todd McShea was at the LSU Clemson game, and stated  "THE BENGALS WOULD BE INSANE IF THEY PASSED ON JOE BURROW."   

[The Gipper]

Still....someone was talking and speculating about it.   I'm just saying. 

[hoorta]

11 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Still....someone was talking and speculating about it.   I'm just saying. 

And they're completely full of crap posting stuff that has about a 0.001% chance of ever happening just to get advertising clicks..... MHO- right now the odds of the Bengals trading out of #1 are about the same as an asteroid hitting Paul Brown Stadium. Hearken back to Andrew Luck- (even the article put Joe on that level) & I have very little doubt even insane offers are going to get turned down. 

Hey- I heard it's a done deal- the Bengals are trading the #1 overall pick to the Browns for Baker Mayfield, Myles Garrett, and two first round picks. Just about as likely,,,, Silly season is officially underway... 

 

[The Gipper]

5 minutes ago, hoorta said:

And they're completely full of crap posting stuff that has about a 0.001% chance of ever happening just to get advertising clicks..... MHO- right now the odds of the Bengals trading out of #1 are about the same as an asteroid hitting Paul Brown Stadium. Hearken back to Andrew Luck- (even the article put Joe on that level) & I have very little doubt even insane offers are going to get turned down. 

Hey- I heard it's a done deal- the Bengals are trading the #1 overall pick to the Browns for Baker Mayfield, Myles Garrett, and two first round picks. Just about as likely,,,, Silly season is officially underway... 

 

Brady Quinn was one of them.

You know...the guy whose pro career Joe Burrows will mirror