Interesting/Surprsing PFF Dive into Each Position's Probablity of Success by Round

[Tour2ma]

Bottom lines...

• Don't rush to draft RBs, TEs, OGs, OCs,  or LBs early. In fact in the case of RBs... don't draft them until Day 3.
• If you don't take a CB,  Edge, OT or QB in round 1... don't be in a hurry to take one on Day 2.
• For the remainder.... WRs, IDL and S... the declines are gradual and reasonably uniform so the value for the pick spent is relatively constant

 

Here's their summary conclusions and table...

[gumby73]

Time to dust this off from February...

here's their updated Big Board.. https://pff.com/draft/big-board  click on position to find your favorites..  

here's the list of critical factors they considered.. https://pff.com/news/draft-pff-critical-factors-most-important-numbers-for-2020-nfl-draft-class    

draftnetwork...  https://thedraftnetwork.com/prospect-rankings    

ESPN... https://espn.com/nfl/draft/bestavailable    

[Tour2ma]

Thomas ended up being their  #1 OT and 8th overall...

Jones... #4 and 14th...

Becton... #5 and 45th... lol...

[tiamat63]

Re-enforces my conclusion that TE and RB are the anti-thesis to QB's.

You find great TE value in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.   Likewise for RB's, just 3rd to 4th round.  edit: And beyond.

[The Gipper]

1 hour ago, Tour2ma said:

Thomas ended up being their  #1 OT and 8th overall...

Jones... #4 and 14th...

Becton... #5 and 45th... lol...

If the draft went strictly by their rankings, both Thomas and Wirfs would be gone.   Leaving Wills there for us perhaps. 

They have Willie Gay rated higher than most....maybe there for us at  #41? 

[LondonBrown]

On 4/18/2020 at 11:39 PM, Tour2ma said:

Thomas ended up being their  #1 OT and 8th overall...

Jones... #4 and 14th...

Becton... #5 and 45th... lol...

Not read much pre draft stuff this year but I did see someone concerned with Andrew Thomas suitability to Stefanski’s ZBS 

Anything in it for you? 

[Tour2ma]

3 hours ago, LondonBrown said:

Not read much pre draft stuff this year but I did see someone concerned with Andrew Thomas suitability to Stefanski’s ZBS 

Anything in it for you? 

In general I feel if you can pass block, then you can zone block... this was my tia-aided epiphany of the year.

The two best pass-blocking OTs I see in this draft are Thomas and Jones... and there are days when I am not sure of their order, but since that is primarily due to Jones having the better technique... I always go home with Thomas.

[LondonBrown]

16 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

In general I feel if you can pass block, then you can zone block... this was my tia-aided epiphany of the year.

The two best pass-blocking OTs I see in this draft are Thomas and Jones... and there are days when I am not sure of their order, but since that is primarily due to Jones having the better technique... I always go home with Thomas.

Thanks, looking forward to Thursday. Wouldn't surprise me if they take a WR if they trade back, both OBJ and Landry wont be here next year

[Barry]

Has anyone ever gone back and looked at PFF's final draft ratings from 2-3 years ago to see ho they compare? I don't have a subscription so I can't but it would be interesting to review it.

[Orion]

On 2/21/2020 at 8:27 PM, Tour2ma said:

Bottom lines...

They say to stay away from LB'ers early since teams have been bad at rating their talent.  I've been wanting us to stay away from Simmons should other teams avoid him prior to our pick.

[The Gipper]

9 minutes ago, Barry said:

Has anyone ever gone back and looked at PFF's final draft ratings from 2-3 years ago to see ho they compare? I don't have a subscription so I can't but it would be interesting to review it.

I didn't do that, but I did do  somewhat of a grading of all teams drafts from 2015-2017  per the pfr career production average.  

I know, not the same thing you are asking for.  You are asking "how well did PFF predict things" in those previous years.     But, if you think about it, the ultimate  "draft prediction service"  is the actual draft itself.     Each team with their GM and scouting departments  attempt to predict the future of how well each of the players they choose is going to perform. 

But, even that is not particularly prescient.   Because, per that metric, the Cleveland Browns selected players over that 3 year period who had the 3rd best production  of all teams in the NFL.  (Saints and Chiefs only ones that did better).    Those great "producers"  produced a 1-31 record.  

[Barry]

9 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

I didn't do that, but I did do  somewhat of a grading of all teams drafts from 2015-2017  per the pfr career production average.  

Would you mind telling me where you posted that? I read it but forgot which topic it was posted under and would like to look at it again. Thanks

[The Gipper]

3 minutes ago, Barry said:

Would you mind telling me where you posted that? I read it but forgot which topic it was posted under and would like to look at it again. Thanks

thebrownsboard.com/topic/56253-grading-a-draft/

Or, go to page 2 of threads on here. 

[tiamat63]

2 hours ago, Barry said:

Has anyone ever gone back and looked at PFF's final draft ratings from 2-3 years ago to see ho they compare? I don't have a subscription so I can't but it would be interesting to review it.

Yep.   Hits and misses like any other mock draft.   I've agreed with some of their rankings and their top 50 prospects that didn't get as much pre-draft love elsewhere.  I've found myself also highly disagreeing with some of their top 100 assessments as well.

 

 

[Barry]

2 hours ago, The Gipper said:

thebrownsboard.com/topic/56253-grading-a-draft/

Or, go to page 2 of threads on here. 

Sorry, what's PFR  CA ? Players from California? 😎

 

[Tour2ma]

2 hours ago, Barry said:

Sorry, what's PFR  CA ? Players from California? 😎

 

Quote

AV - approximate value. This is our attempt to put a single number on each player-season since 1960 so that we can (very approximately) compare across years and across positions. See this blog page for all the details.

AY/A - adjusted yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown))/(passing attempts). This stat was introduced, and the reasoning behind it thoroughly explained in a book called The Hidden Game of Football, by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn. Note that we are now using 20 yards per TD instead of 10, because of research by Chase Stuart at the p-f-r blog.

CarAV - career approximate value. See the entry on AV. The Career AV is computed by summing 100% of the player's best-season AV, 95% of his second-best-season AV, 90% of his third best, and so on. The idea is that the Career AV rating should weight peak seasons slightly more than "compiler"-type seasons.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/glossary.htm

For the calculation deep dive take the "this blog page" link.

[The Gipper]

3 hours ago, Barry said:

Sorry, what's PFR  CA ? Players from California? 😎

 

 See the explanation Tour provided above. 

Find it  here:  (the PFR) 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/

[Barry]

Ok, the AV is what I was afraid it might be. Imo the most important value one can choose when evaluating a player is how they compare with their peers. We all know that starters are not all created equal when some start on bad teams and some start on good teams.  And yes, PFF mentions this but it's only lip service. They did not include it in their analysis, unless I missed it, so I am inclined to not depend on this analysis too much.

But then it raises the question of how to value a drafted player? I would suggest 3 factors and let's use Kirksey as an example: 1) The player's pay level in relation to others players at his position. What better way to determine a guy's worth than using the results of Kirksey's agent saying "My guy is better than x,y and z so should be getting paid more" and the other side saying "No, Kirksey is not as good as x,y, z so he shouldn't get paid as much"? While salary is continually being adjusted, you can take the average salary ranking of a player during their career in comparison to his peers playing the same position. 2) Where his team has drafted other players who play his position. For example, if the Browns drafted Kirksey and 2 years later draft another outside LB in round 3, then that might suggest that they are looking to upgrade that position. If they didn't draft his replacement until his 4th year, then he should have greater value, as it is reflective of his play. Granted there is a lot of grey area here, e.g. I would suggest that you only consider Rounds 1-3 for obvious reason. Also, the team drafting might be looking for someone to fill in on the other side (e.g. another outside LB), in which case you need to drill a little bit to evaluate why another LB in this case was drafted. Trading for someone to replace Kirksey would also be considered.  3) Pro-Bowls. 

Maybe I missed something as I didn't read PFF's explanation as carefully as I could have, but I do know that there is no way that the Browns had the 9th best draft results according to the current system. Their record just doesn't show it. One day I might use this system I just explained to evaluate guys and see how it comes out.

[The Gipper]

17 minutes ago, Barry said:

Ok, the AV is what I was afraid it might be. Imo the most important value one can choose when evaluating a player is how they compare with their peers. We all know that starters are not all created equal when some start on bad teams and some start on good teams.  And yes, PFF mentions this but it's only lip service. They did not include it in their analysis, unless I missed it, so I am inclined to not depend on this analysis too much.

There is no doubt that where a player is taken....and what position he plays are a big factor in establishing a player's ultimate contribution/production.   And production is certainly  NOT the be all and end all of the evaluation of a player.  E.G.  The two players, I believe that have the highest  CAs from the 2015 draft are  Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota. And those two certainly HAVE produced a lot....been in a lot of plays,  threw a lot of passes and completions for a lot of yards, their fair share of TDs, and etc....the things that QBs do.  But...where are they both now, having produced so much apparently in their 5 years in the draft?   One is a backup elsewhere...and one is still looking for a gig.  So no matter how much you may produce in terms of game time and stats.....there are obviously other factors involved in  evaluating a player career. 

But then it raises the question of how to value a drafted player?

OK, but just FYI....PFR's CA would not apply to drafted players. (unless they have developed something similar for college players...not sure they have, and not sure I would go by that anyway....otherwise the likes of Timmy Chang and Colt Brennan would have been sure fire top picks....since they produced so many stats in their college years....they were'nt 

 

I would suggest 3 factors and let's use Kirksey as an example: 1) The player's pay level in relation to others players at his position. What better way to determine a guy's worth than using the results of Kirksey's agent saying "My guy is better than x,y and z so should be getting paid more" and the other side saying "No, Kirksey is not as good as x,y, z so he shouldn't get paid as much"? While salary is continually being adjusted, you can take the average salary ranking of a player during their career in comparison to his peers playing the same position. 2) Where his team has drafted other players who play his position. For example, if the Browns drafted Kirksey and 2 years later draft another outside LB in round 3, then that might suggest that they are looking to upgrade that position. If they didn't draft his replacement until his 4th year, then he should have greater value, as it is reflective of his play. Granted there is a lot of grey area here, e.g. I would suggest that you only consider Rounds 1-3 for obvious reason. Also, the team drafting might be looking for someone to fill in on the other side (e.g. another outside LB), in which case you need to drill a little bit to evaluate why another LB in this case was drafted. Trading for someone to replace Kirksey would also be considered.  3) Pro-Bowls. 

Maybe I missed something as I didn't read PFF's explanation as carefully as I could have, but I do know that there is no way that the Browns had the 9th best draft results according to the current system. Their record just doesn't show it. One day I might use this system I just explained to evaluate guys and see how it comes out.

I will pass on commenting on the rest of this...but thank you for contributing. 

 

[Tour2ma]

1 hour ago, Barry said:

They did not include it in their analysis, unless I missed it, so I am inclined to not depend on this analysis too much.

There is no player analysis per se... the objective of the PFF effort was to develop an objective measure of players' value.

As such it starts with the valuation of Offensive and Defensive units and then divvies up the points each earns thru an semi-arbitrary weighting of the positions followed by individual values augmented by individual achievements such as All-Pro and/or Pro Bowl selections. Obviously QB gets the lions share of the points here. So it wasn't a matter of Winston's or Mariota's production so much as it was the production of the Offenses they led.

As for stacking up all teams' drafts by summing their players' CAVs? Well... CAV rewards longevity and while longevity is capped at 5 years for the 2015 draft not all players drafted in 2015 are still playing. So a team's sum is set not only by the quality of the players it drafted, but the quantity of "man-years" its raft racked up.

Last.... since man-years is a key, then so is the number of men picked, i.e., how many picks did a team have in a given year.

 

When I first saw Gip's attempt at "somewhat grading" a draft, I knew it was flawed, but couldn't see how to simply fix it, so I made no comment... until now. It's not as simple as CAV per player taken as not all missing and/or added picks are equal. And I couldn't figure a simple way to weight picks by round.

I think there's a way to use the Meers, trade-value table in the weighting, but that's immediately getting well beyond "simple"... so I'd have to care a helluva lot more than I do to go there.

[The Gipper]

10 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

There is no player analysis per se... the objective of the PFF effort was to develop an objective measure of players' value.

As such it starts with the valuation of Offensive and Defensive units and then divvies up the points each earns thru an semi-arbitrary weighting of the positions followed by individual values augmented by individual achievements such as All-Pro and/or Pro Bowl selections. Obviously QB gets the lions share of the points here. So it wasn't a matter of Winston's or Mariota's production so much as it was the production of the Offenses they led.

As for stacking up all teams' drafts by summing their players' CAVs? Well... CAV rewards longevity and while longevity is capped at 5 years for the 2015 draft not all players drafted in 2015 are still playing. So a team's sum is set not only by the quality of the players it drafted, but the quantity of "man-years" its raft racked up.

Last.... since man-years is a key, then so is the number of men picked, i.e., how many picks did a team have in a given year.

 

When I first saw Gip's attempt at "somewhat grading" a draft, I knew it was flawed, but couldn't see how to simply fix it, so I made no comment... until now. It's not as simple as CAV per player taken as not all missing and/or added picks are equal. And I couldn't figure a simple way to weight picks by round.

I think there's a way to use the Meers, trade-value table in the weighting, but that's immediately getting well beyond "simple"... so I'd have to care a helluva lot more than I do to go there.

Well, I knew that it was somewhat flawed as well......but I was not aware of any other method or service that attempts to do that sort of thing relatively simplistically.    Admittedly, just adding up the raw CAVs of a draft class means, generally, that a larger draft class could come up with a larger  accumulated CAV total.   I also note elsewhere, parenthetically, that having the top CAV producers in a class is not the end all be all of things, as that 2015 class had at the top, both in terms of draft selection position, and in terms of CAV production, the likes of Winston and Mariota,  one a backup now, the other looking for a job.  

I guess one thing to ask is the non-scientific question:   Is a draft that produces  one Hall of Fame talent, and a bunch of nobodies thereafter, better than a draft that produces a few mediocre players.