The Bradley Effect

[OconRecon]

I don't think it exists. Chuck Todd argues there is no such thing and it was the result of bad polling with a conclusion based on false cause-and-effect.

 

And if it were true last century, it looks like its not true this century.

 

It looks like the polls were as accurate as they usually are. Some overpredicting, some underpredicting, etc.

[Guest BillyJack]

Bradley Effect? no it wasnt there, what we got was the Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton effect.

[Pumpkin Eater]

It is kind of interesting that VA was so close after wider polling gaps, but then again Obama won IN, which shows he got a commanding majority of the undecideds that remained in that state.

[Guest Aloysius]

One of the more interesting theories is that the tougher crime laws & welfare reform passed in the mid-90's eliminated or reduced the Bradley Effect.

 

"We haven't seen a Bradley effect in some time, and I don't expect to see one in this race," said Dan Hopkins, a political scientist at Harvard who has studied the phenomenon. "It is popular to discuss because it provides a way for people to talk about race."

 

[...]

 

Hopkins, the Harvard political scientist, studied gubernatorial and Senate races from 1989 to 2006 to research the Wilder effect, another name for the phenomenon. The name comes from Virginia Gov. Douglas Wilder, who in 1989 had a 15-percentage-point lead two weeks before the election but won by a narrow margin. It has also been called the Dinkins effect. In the 1989 race for mayor in New York, a poll showed African American candidate David Dinkins with a 14-point lead over Rudy Giuliani four days before the election - but Dinkins won by only two points.

 

From 1989 to 1996, Hopkins found that African American candidates lost two to three percentage points of the support they had in the polls. But after 1996, he says, the effect disappeared.

 

The broader context

 

Hopkins suggests that the Wilder effect dissipated after welfare reform, a racially charged issue, and when black candidates began discussing social issues, like crime and poverty, in a larger context rather than complaining about racism and the plight of African Americans.

 

"As racialized rhetoric about welfare and crime receded from national prominence in the mid-1990s, so did the gap between polling and performance," Hopkins wrote in his report on the phenomenon, adding that the effect could return if race again infuses prominent topics in national politics.

[Guest mz.]

I don't think it exists.

 

Putting on my psychologist hat, I'd say The Bradley Effect is just an offshoot of racism, and I would say so because it just seems like it is/was perpetuated by those folks who may be subconsiously, or consciously embarrassed by, their latent racism.

 

I believe it is a very real phenomenon, and like racism itself, it'll start dying out soon enough.

[DieHardBrownsFan]

Do you really believe that racism is dying? That we as a people are approaching nirvana? I highly doubt that. Wars will continue, racism will continue. People are people. Obama won't change human beings behavior. He may get a tax increase on people who make over 250,000 dollars. But he wont change their behavior one iota.

[Guest mz.]

I'm not saying Obama has anything to do with it, other than he was the dude elected.

 

The fact is, the more racist/intolerant generations are slowly but surely dying out.

[Westside Steve]

I'm not saying Obama has anything to do with it, other than he was the dude elected.

 

The fact is, the more racist/intolerant generations are slowly but surely dying out.

 

I'd agree if Obama got say 55% of the black vote.

 

The Bradley effect was most likely an excuse for crappy polling.

And repeated over and over to remind the Negroes not to stay home this time if they want one of their own in office.

 

Remember? Politics 101?

WSS

[Guest mz.]

55% Steve? really.

 

Kerry got 88%.

 

Cal thinks you make a lame argument.

[Westside Steve]

55% Steve? really.

 

Kerry got 88%.

 

Exactly.

No other group near that size is as monolithic.

 

Cal thinks you make a lame argument.

 

Actually the politics 101 was a quote from you when I made the point before.

WSS

[Guest mz.]

Exactly.

No other group near that size is as monolithic.

 

Blacks make up 12% of the population. Next you're going to get on the Jews for voting for Lieberman. Well, bad example.

 

What does this have to do with the Bradley Effect, anyway? Were you just jonesing to use the word "Negro"?

[Guest mz.]

One of Alo's posts discusses this more effectively, Steve, than I can.

 

I'm afraid I still don't get what you want the media to do, John. Say that black people voted for Obama because he's black, but that it's okay?

 

The problem with that, as I've mentioned, is that 88% of African-American voters went for Kerry in 2004. So that 96% - given alone - is a pretty misleading statistic.

 

Many of those voters would have voted Democratic anyway, so it's hard for a journalist to go out and say, "African-Americans voted for Obama because he's black."

 

I'm sure some did, but I don't get how making broad conclusions about a racial group's motivations helps any.

 

And I agree with Shep's argument above about understanding our society and our nation's past. We've had three African-American US Senators since Reconstruction ended. Three.

 

Not only does that show how amazing yesterday was, but it illuminates why some African-American voters value voting for African-American candidates.

 

If you think that people who look like you have trouble getting elected, wouldn't you do what you could to make sure that that political barrier was knocked down?

 

And what about religious minorities? Was it wrong for a Catholic to vote for Al Smith or JFK because they thought Catholics should have equal rights in this country? Or what about a Mormon supporting Romney because they're sick of religious tolerance?

[Chicopee John]

I'm not saying Obama has anything to do with it, other than he was the dude elected.

 

The fact is, the more racist/intolerant generations are slowly but surely dying out.

 

In the US or world wide, mz the pussy? Just so I understand what you are saying.

[Guest mz.]

U.S.

 

I have no idea what's going on world-wide...it varies.

[Chicopee John]

U.S.

 

I have no idea what's going on world-wide...it varies.

 

Thanks for the clarification.

[Guest mz.]

What are your thoughts, John? Do you agree?

[Westside Steve]

Exactly.

No other group near that size is as monolithic.

 

Blacks make up 12% of the population. Next you're going to get on the Jews for voting for Lieberman. Well, bad example.

 

Jews didn't vote for Lieberman in a bloc. So yes, bad example.

No minority group votes that homogenetically.

 

What does this have to do with the Bradley Effect, anyway? Were you just jonesing to use the word "Negro"?

 

 

Think hard to what I said.

There is no Bradley effect, only some innacurate polling IMO.

It's a phony story repeated hourly to remind, uh, blacks, not to sleep in on election day.

"You can't trust the caucasians!!"

I said that before and YOU agreed calling it "politics 101."

WSS

[Guest mz.]

So, Steve, you think there's no such thing as subconscious/unconscious racism or conscious embarrassment over one's racism? It's all made up?

 

This phenomenon exists with many other feelings...why should racism be excluded.

[Chicopee John]

What are your thoughts, John? Do you agree?

 

I don't disagree but I probably see a time line longer than you do. You did say generations, if I remember correctly, so we might be on the same page.

 

Right now, there are plenty of Black Racists and White Racists and Yellow Racists to go around.

 

If you were talking about internationally, I would strongly disagree.

[Guest mz.]

What are your thoughts, John? Do you agree?

 

I don't disagree but I probably see a time line longer than you do. You did say generations, if I remember correctly, so we might be on the same page.

 

Right now, there are plenty of Black Racists and White Racists and Yellow Racists to go around.

 

We're on the same page. Baby steps. I think we've come a very long way as a society since the 1950's, but there is still a tremendous amount of work to do. This election is just another of the steps...these things do take time.

 

If you were talking about internationally, I would strongly disagree.

 

Same here.

[Westside Steve]

So, Steve, you think there's no such thing as subconscious/unconscious racism or conscious embarrassment over one's racism? It's all made up?

 

Not entirely made up but used improperly in that instance.

It just doesn't ring true that someone who hates negroes so badly he'd refuse to vote for one even though they share ideology would feel ashamed to tell a pollster he voted for the other guy.

(The most racist guy I know is your typical blue collar union Democrat and he voted for [Obama].)

 

Exit polls have been notoriously innacurate.

I say these guys just f*cked up.

WSS

 

This phenomenon exists with many other feelings...why should racism be excluded.

[Guest mz.]

I disagree...I believe some people are extremely embarrassed re: how they feel about things.

 

But OK.

[Legacy Fan]

I disagree...I believe some people are extremely embarrassed re: how they feel about things.

 

But OK.

 

I'm embarassed that for the magnificent chapter that was written in the civil rights movement yesterday, the only thing I can focus on is the silly, insignificant P. Diddy quote, (paraphrasing, after he voted) "I feel like Dr. Martin Luther King right now."

 

Do you really?

 

(If you're wondering what that noise is, it's the corpse of Dr. Martin Luther King head-butting the inside of his casket)

Honestly, I hope that President-elect Obama's presidency does more to heal race relations than his campaign (and the media circus) chose to.

[Guest mz.]

he silly, insignificant P. Diddy quote, (paraphrasing, after he voted) "I feel like Dr. Martin Luther King right now."

 

Do you really?

 

Dammit, I wish I had heard this before I voted; I would have told the exit-pollers that I felt like P. Diddy right now.

[Legacy Fan]

he silly, insignificant P. Diddy quote, (paraphrasing, after he voted) "I feel like Dr. Martin Luther King right now."

 

Do you really?

 

Dammit, I wish I had heard this before I voted; I would have told the exit-pollers that I felt like P. Diddy right now.

LOL.

 

I'm just glad it's over and I don't feel like David Duke anymore for not voting for the guy...