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Confused on Draft Values & Would You Trade UP


TexasAg1969

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OK so here is the draft value chart and below that are our draft positions coming up. So what is #257 7th rounder worth? Anything? 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm

Browns draft picks 2021: When does Cleveland pick?

  • Round 1, Pick No. 26: Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
  • Round 2, Pick No. 59           310 points
  • Round 3, Pick No. 89           145 points
  • Round 3, Pick No. 91           136 points
  • Round 4, Pick No. 110         74   points
  • Round 4, Pick No. 132         40   points
  • Round 5, Pick No. 169         24   points
  • Round 6, Pick No. 211         7     points
  • Round 7, Pick No. 257         ?
  •  
  • Second part of the question is would you trade up and for whom?

 

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1 hour ago, TexasAg1969 said:

So what is #257 7th rounder worth? Anything? 

The DVC is subjective.  There's a bunch of 'em out there.  They're not 'official' by any stretch.   I've seen 'em where all 7th rounders are worth 1 point.  And I've seen where the values decline like the rest of the chart.    Most are similar however.

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2 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

OK so here is the draft value chart and below that are our draft positions coming up. So what is #257 7th rounder worth? Anything? 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm

Browns draft picks 2021: When does Cleveland pick?

  • Round 1, Pick No. 26: Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
  • Round 2, Pick No. 59           310 points
  • Round 3, Pick No. 89           145 points
  • Round 3, Pick No. 91           136 points
  • Round 4, Pick No. 110         74   points
  • Round 4, Pick No. 132         40   points
  • Round 5, Pick No. 169         24   points
  • Round 6, Pick No. 211         7     points
  • Round 7, Pick No. 257         ?
  •  
  • Second part of the question is would you trade up and for whom?

 

From what I understand,  this  old Jimmy Johnson chart is basically outdated.   There is a Harvard chart out there more in use.   And considering our  GM is a  Pahk yah cah in  Hahvahd Yahd  kind of guy,  that is likely what would be used. 

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Here's what the Harvard Chart looks like:

Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7
1 494.6 33 175.2 65 128.0 97 97.8 129 75.6 161 58.0 193 43.5
2 435.7 34 173.3 66 126.9 98 97.1 130 75.0 162 57.5 194 43.1
3 401.3 35 171.4 67 125.8 99 96.3 131 74.4 163 57.1 195 42.6
4 376.9 36 169.5 68 124.7 100 95.5 132 73.8 164 56.6 196 42.2
5 357.9 37 167.7 69 123.6 101 94.7 133 73.2 165 56.1 197 41.8
6 342.4 38 165.9 70 122.5 102 94.0 134 72.6 166 55.6 198 41.4
7 329.4 39 164.1 71 121.5 103 93.2 135 72.0 167 55.1 199 41.0
8 318.0 40 162.4 72 120.4 104 92.5 136 71.5 168 54.6 200 40.6
9 308.0 41 160.8 73 119.4 105 91.7 137 70.9 169 54.2 201 40.2
10 299.1 42 159.1 74 118.4 106 91.0 138 70.3 170 53.7 202 39.8
11 291.0 43 157.5 75 117.4 107 90.3 139 69.7 171 53.2 203 39.4
12 283.6 44 155.9 76 116.4 108 89.5 140 69.2 172 52.7 204 39.0
13 276.8 45 154.3 77 115.4 109 88.8 141 68.6 173 52.3 205 38.6
14 270.5 46 152.8 78 114.4 110 88.1 142 68.0 174 51.8 206 38.2
15 264.7 47 151.3 79 113.5 111 87.4 143 67.5 175 51.4 207 37.8
16 259.2 48 149.8 80 112.5 112 86.7 144 66.9 176 50.9 208 37.4
17 254.0 49 148.4 81 111.6 113 86.0 145 66.4 177 50.4 209 37.0
18 249.2 50 147.0 82 110.7 114 85.3 146 65.8 178 50.0 210 36.6
19 244.6 51 145.6 83 109.7 115 84.6 147 65.3 179 49.5 211 36.3
20 240.2 52 144.2 84 108.8 116 84.0 148 64.8 180 49.1 212 35.9
21 236.1 53 142.8 85 107.9 117 83.3 149 64.2 181 48.6 213 35.5
22 232.1 54 141.5 86 107.1 118 82.6 150 63.7 182 48.2 214 35.1
23 228.4 55 140.2 87 106.2 119 82.0 151 63.2 183 47.8 215 34.7
24 224.7 56 138.9 88 105.3 120 81.3 152 62.6 184 47.3 216 34.3
25 221.3 57 137.6 89 104.4 121 80.7 153 62.1 185 46.9 217 33.9
26 218.0 58 136.3 90 103.6 122 80.0 154 61.6 186 46.5 218 33.5
27 214.7 59 135.1 91 102.7 123 79.4 155 61.1 187 46.0 219 33.1
28 211.7 60 133.9 92 101.9 124 78.7 156 60.6 188 45.6 220 32.7
29 208.7 61 132.7 93 101.1 125 78.1 157 60.0 189 45.2 221 32.3
30 205.8 62 131.4 94 100.3 126 77.5 158 59.5 190 44.7 222 31.9
31 203.0 63 130.3 95 99.4 127 76.9 159 59.0 191 44.3 223 31.5
32 200.3 64 129.1 96 98.6 128 76.2 160 58.5 192 43.9 224 31.1

Take note what 40 points got you last night? Compare to, that same 40 points to rounds 2 & 3... Get prepared for player trades.. & a draftable trade fest..

most 7ths are considered as thrown in's

Jimmy's here...

image.jpeg.c006b78117f3397093804ff61a374439.jpeg  

 

image.jpeg

 

 

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Wrong chart, Ag...

JJ's is history... the Harvard is closer, but even it has been tweaked by teams since it was first published. I can guarantee DePo has tweaked ours. It's based strictly upon an analysis of player contributions vs. draft position.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

Here's an update done by Draftek's Rich Hill... bit of a hybrid based upon an analysis of trades.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

That said....

 

Until we start to see how the round is progressing it's impossible to project who and how high.

A question which is answerable is: Would you trade up to #33 for the pick of the 2nd-round litter?

 

By the Harvard #33 is worth 175.2 so it would take our R2-#59 (135.1) plus our 7th. Clearly that's too low on its face and then there's the competition for the spot to boot.

By the Rich Hill #33 is worth 180 so our #59 (91) plus both our 3rds (46+44) get us there. Much more realistic and JAX has a 7th (#249) if you want your change... ;)

So there's the price tag.

image.png.6eb2b3bd7ce90a647ad013e29906cc46.png

 

Now... who is there that would be worth the price of #33?

I don't see any that are given the alternatives available as the draft comes to us at IDL, Edge, LB, S or WR.

As it does come to us and the price falls to #59 and one of our 3rds? Then sure... and that happens around Pick #44.

 

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14 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Wrong chart, Ag...

JJ's is history... the Harvard is closer, but even it has been tweaked by teams since it was first published. I can guarantee DePo has tweaked ours. It's based strictly upon an analysis of player contributions vs. draft position.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

Here's an update done by Draftek's Rich Hill... bit of a hybrid based upon an analysis of trades.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

That said....

 

Until we start to see how the round is progressing it's impossible to project who and how high.

A question which is answerable is: Would you trade up to #33 for the pick of the 2nd-round litter?

 

By the Harvard #33 is worth 175.2 so it would take our R2-#59 (135.1) plus our 7th. Clearly that's too low on its face and then there's the competition for the spot to boot.

By the Rich Hill #33 is worth 180 so our #59 (91) plus both our 3rds (46+44) get us there. Much more realistic and JAX has a 7th (#249) if you want your change... ;)

So there's the price tag.

image.png.6eb2b3bd7ce90a647ad013e29906cc46.png

 

Now... who is there that would be worth the price of #33?

I don't see any that are given the alternatives available as the draft comes to us at IDL, Edge, LB, S or WR.

As it does come to us and the price falls to #59 and one of our 3rds? Then sure... and that happens around Pick #44.

 

Hmm. Walter was still using it too.

I'm afraid anyone we want will be gone by #44. May have to trade a 3rd, 5th and 6th along with that 2nd. I would still want to retain a 3rd and 4th.

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