Ripley's Believe it or not...

[hoorta]

Apparently Stefanski has his Surface wired into Nex Gen Stats, or Depodesta is on his headset..  Good odds, lousy execution..  https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-decision-guide-fourth-down-superlatives-at-midpoint-of-2021-nfl-s

[mjp28]

Who has time to read all of this stuff....... well besides NFL coaches and staffs who's jobs might depend on getting it right.   

Do you believe in using the data driven decisions ?

Optimal fourth-down decision percentage: 92% (12 of 13 strong go for it opportunities)

Armed with one of the NFL's deepest analytics departments, second-year head coach Kevin Stefanski is well-prepared to make the right call when it comes to fourth-down decisions. No coach correlates more with the NGS model than Stefanski -- which holds true in back-to-back seasons. Through the first nine weeks of the 2021 season, Stefanski and Co. have correctly gone for it -- when they should -- in 12 of 13 opportunities. At 92 percent, that's the highest rate among any coach by a significant margin. This comes a year after the Browns led the league by the same metric (79 percent, 11 of 14 strong go for it opportunities in 2020).

While Stefanski and his staff have gotten the process right, it has been the outcome that has not gone in the team’s direction through the first half of the season. The offense has converted on just seven of 18 fourth-down attempts, a 38.9 percent conversion rate (23rd in the NFL).

Stefanski’s most optimal game of the season came in Week 5 against the second-ranked coach by this metric, Brandon Staley of the Chargers (10-of-14, 71 percent). The teams combined to go 13 for 13 on fourth-down decisions (eight by Stefanski, five by Staley) that affected the team's chances of winning by at least one percent.