Tale of the Tape - Browns @ Dolphins

[Orion]

My team vs Mrs. Wife's team.  (she's not a big football fan...she probably won't even watch much of it)

So, we're still clinging to the fantasy that we have a chance to make the playoffs...while being 3 wins behind this team and the Ravens, and others.

The Dolphins bring the league's 29th rushing attack to the game.  As we know, that shouldn't deter them from running it right up our gut.  But with the #2 passing attack they may not bother to try and prove that they can run against us.  Something the Bengals didn't bother to do either.  Anyhow, it boils down to the #2 passing attack against a middle of the pack pass D.  And on the other side of the ball it's the same thing, only different.  We're the great running attack against their middle of the pack run D.  (they DID just add Bradley Chubb to their D though)

I haven't checked the point spread, but to me the game is pretty even.  The Dolphins great passing attack being a little more valuable than our great running attack (IMO being able to pass is more valuable than being able to run).....and their being at home....I'd probably make them a 3 point favorite.  We're a northern team and they're a southern team...but the weather, up until yesterday has been sort of an Indigenous Peoples Summer    up here in the north, so I don't see the temperature difference being much of a factor.

It's actually a pretty neat matchup.  The good running team against the good passing team.  Let's hope for the same outcome as last week for us.  -  They're pretty much all must win games now.  We can't lose...because we squandered wins away against teams that we were supposed to beat.  

[syd]

2 hours ago, Orion said:

dolphins 29th rushing attack

this is why we win it is smash mouth football that has killed us So ya let tua throw it around are D will get to him sure they will score some points  but they will not stop are run game which is something they have not faced since they played the jets with hall and carter and they suck compared to are running game

[syd]

2 hours ago, Orion said:

The Dolphins bring the league's 29th rushing attack to the game

 

2 hours ago, Orion said:

The Dolphins bring the league's 29th rushing attack to the game

 

2 hours ago, Orion said:

The Dolphins bring the league's 29th rushing attack to the game

we will dominate the fucking game

[Orion]

1 hour ago, syd said:

we will dominate the fucking game

...if we don't come out 'Bye Week Flat' and fall flat on our face.

[calfoxwc]

it's going to be a fun game to watch.

Big offensive line on both sides. Passing game highly ranked on Miami side. Power running game on Browns side.

I think the Miami coaching staff is a huge plus on the Miami side - Tua very highly rated in the NFL - but the big plus is ...

Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Those are two big pluses right there for the Miami offense.

and Mike Geseki sp? at TE - here and there - no Osusu to keep up with him - I don't know.

Advantage Browns with the running game.

However, Raekwon Davis is 6'7", 335 lbs at NT - so, that should be some serious clash going on.

  My guess is, Hill gives the Browns fits again - and the Dolphin coaches make the difference.

Really tought to predict. A lot of fun to watch the matchup.

 

[nickers]

I got a feelin' but... I like the Browns in this matchup...

[Pavo Joe]

I do know that there will be a large group of Browns Backers from all over the Southeast and Northeast Ohio tucked away in the upper deck corner clinging to the hope of a win.

[SdBacker80]

19 hours ago, syd said:

 

 

we will dominate the fucking game

I don’t see it this way.  If we give the Dolphins WRs space in our zone defense we like to play they Will YAC us to death. 

I’m not Tua fan but his weapons on the perimeter are impressive 

I will take the Browns though plus 3 1/2 and above. 
 

 

[syd]

4 hours ago, SdBacker80 said:

I don’t see it this way.  If we give the Dolphins WRs space in our zone defense we like to play they Will YAC us to death. 

I’m not Tua fan but his weapons on the perimeter are impressive 

I will take the Browns though plus 3 1/2 and above. 
 

 

i took the BROWNIES in a parley(moneyline) with the under on the game tonight

[syd]

4 hours ago, SdBacker80 said:

I don’t see it this way.  If we give the Dolphins WRs space in our zone defense we like to play they Will YAC us to death. 

I’m not Tua fan but his weapons on the perimeter are impressive 

I will take the Browns though plus 3 1/2 and above. 
 

 

you on drugs ? mushrooms ? valium ? speedball ? tell me what kind of drugs do you take ?

[SdBacker80]

19 minutes ago, syd said:

you on drugs ? mushrooms ? valium ? speedball ? tell me what kind of drugs do you take ?

Steady diet/dose of coffee cigars and bourbon 

23 minutes ago, syd said:

i took the BROWNIES in a parley(moneyline) with the under on the game tonight

ML? What are you on?

I like the under too in this one but I like falcons…looking bleak on the falcons 

[SdBacker80]

Jerry Tillery being released by the Chargers…interesting 

[Orion]

15 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

Jerry Tillery being released by the Chargers…interesting 

Making bad 1st round picks is not limited to just the Browns.  It just 'feels' that way.

Yup, we need DT.

[jiggins7919]

On 11/9/2022 at 6:10 PM, Orion said:

The Dolphins bring the league's 29th rushing attack to the game.  As we know, that shouldn't deter them from running it right up our gut.  But with the #2 passing attack they may not bother to try and prove that they can run against us.

I've watched a lot of Dolphins football and I'll be honest...they're terrifying. They get you in painfully unfair matchups against the fastest people in the universe. It's funny, on paper, Hill and Schwartz have similar electric speed, but they couldn't be more different. To be fair, comparing anyone to Hill is laughable, as I've never seen anyone in my life like him. But it's funny that I've literally never seen Schwartz LOOK fast, and Hill looks like he belongs in a video game. 

Anyway, I don't have the stats to back this up, but the Fins appear to go deep more than anyone. They will seriously air it out, and they absolutely FEAST on people with receptions AND deep pass interference penalties. I saw two for over 100 yards last week. They don't run it often because they don't have to. They score almost at will and if we're going to win, we'll need to force FG's instead of giving up tds. Also, we'll need to stop them on 4th downs at least once, probably twice. They don't want FG's, they want touchdowns. 

[nickers]

How about the Browns by a FG... A game winning FG... Be a great way to get our kicker back in the groove...

[Dutch Oven]

8 hours ago, jiggins7919 said:

I've watched a lot of Dolphins football and I'll be honest...they're terrifying. They get you in painfully unfair matchups against the fastest people in the universe. It's funny, on paper, Hill and Schwartz have similar electric speed, but they couldn't be more different. To be fair, comparing anyone to Hill is laughable, as I've never seen anyone in my life like him. But it's funny that I've literally never seen Schwartz LOOK fast, and Hill looks like he belongs in a video game. 

Anyway, I don't have the stats to back this up, but the Fins appear to go deep more than anyone. They will seriously air it out, and they absolutely FEAST on people with receptions AND deep pass interference penalties. I saw two for over 100 yards last week. They don't run it often because they don't have to. They score almost at will and if we're going to win, we'll need to force FG's instead of giving up tds. Also, we'll need to stop them on 4th downs at least once, probably twice. They don't want FG's, they want touchdowns. 

The thing I noticed is Tua doesn't need to be great, the Dolphins offense schemes people wide open often. 

In fact, in the small sample of the Dolphins I've seen, it seems like they could be even more explosive if they had a QB who could consistently hit their WRs in stride. I saw numerous examples of a WR running wide open running across the field, and Tua just chucks the ball to him and the WR has to slow down, catch the ball, and start up again. 

Ward picked a rough game to come back. 

[Orion]

32 minutes ago, Dutch Oven said:

Ward picked a rough game to come back. 

He's playing?  His bell has finally stopped ringing?   He should quit the game.

[Korsou Dawg]

Tyreek went for nearly 200 yards in a single game against us last year, and our D hasn't exactly improved since. He leads the NFL in yards this year, and their #2 option Jaylen Waddle is also in the top 5. Remember how one Bailey Zappe tore us a new one with considerably fewer weapons than that? Tua should be able to equal, or better that.

This is an absolutely nightmarish matchup for our D. The only reason their passing grade is average, are the mostly bad to 'meh' passing offenses we have played so far. Expect them to rank lower by the end of this game. 

[gumby73]

The Drive.. The       ..thru this season?..

We've all been glued to our tv sets, with these final quarter minutes ticking-off, with hopes of not going into Cardiac Arrest 🤓

 

Every game we've lost... besides the Patriots.. We've had the ball with a chance to win the game.. We are entertaining 

 

The Steelers/Jets/Bengals & Vikings defense, all held the Dolphins to scoring 15 to 17 points.. The Browns can win this game, if we keep them in the 20's...

The Browns thru 8 games score 25 points a game... Fins thru 9 games score 23.7/ game 

It's going to be another nail biter this week, if we play like were capable of from both sides....

Keep it Close !

[Orion]

10 hours ago, Korsou Dawg said:

The only reason their passing grade is average, are the mostly bad to 'meh' passing offenses we have played

We're going to need consistent pressure on the QB.  Without it, a receiver will get/be open.

[Korsou Dawg]

11 hours ago, Orion said:

We're going to need consistent pressure on the QB.  Without it, a receiver will get/be open.

I hope; I wish, but I am far from convinced.

[jiggins7919]

On 11/11/2022 at 6:58 AM, Dutch Oven said:

The thing I noticed is Tua doesn't need to be great, the Dolphins offense schemes people wide open often. 

RIGHT?! I could not believe how open people were and I even saw Hill on a linebacker a few times (I think). Tua doesn't have the highest delivery, and if there was EVER a time for the magical deflection-pick 6...it's tomorrow. 

Their ability to get people open is also why I said we need to force 3 instead of TDs. It'd be foolish to expect us to shut them down, but we can maintain possession as much as possible, force them to FG's, score TDs ourselves, and perhaps above all else, we can't have penalties. Just one holding penalty could be the difference between punting and scoring. If the Fins get you in 3rd and long, they WILL come after you, and Brissett isn't great against the bum's rush. 

Fins played a very physical game last week, and truth be told, could have easily lost. They were the beneficiary of an atrocious pass interference call, and then at the very end of a one score game, the refs didn't throw the flag on an egregious 3rd down bomb that should have given the Bears 1st and 10 around the Dolphin 30 yard line. I'm telling you, it was BAD. 

All that being said, we'll be mostly healthy, and they'll be beaten up. I'm more than a little shocked that JOK and Njoku won't be playing, but we do get Wyatt back. The Dolphins have a new toy of their own and traded for Bradley Chubb. That's not going to be fun, and if Brissett goes down, he MUST not fumble. 

What will Brissett have to do? I think it goes without saying the Fins are going to absolutely sell out against the run and put 48 people in the box. Don't be surprised to see play-action short passes on 1st down and runs on 3rd and mediums. Browns feel VERY capable getting 6 yards against most nickel formations. If Chubb stays in on 3rd down, watch for the delayed shotgun handoff to the left. 

Have you noticed the lack of screen passes lately? Well, they're coming back with a vengeance tomorrow. We have to find a way to turn their aggression against them. I DON'T want to see a ton of lengthy dropbacks. Everything needs to be quick and decisive until we can take some calculated shots. 

It's such a bummer that we lost the Atlanta and Jets games because this is going to be a really fun game, but it's going to essentially end our season if we lose. We lost all wiggle room and that's such a bummer. We win 2-3 games and get Watson back at 5-6...we got a chance. 

There's a gleam, men. 

[Ghoolie Always Ghoolie]

On 11/9/2022 at 5:10 PM, Orion said:

My team vs Mrs. Wife's team.  (she's not a big football fan...she probably won't even watch much of it)

So, we're still clinging to the fantasy that we have a chance to make the playoffs...while being 3 wins behind this team and the Ravens, and others.

The Dolphins bring the league's 29th rushing attack to the game.  As we know, that shouldn't deter them from running it right up our gut.  But with the #2 passing attack they may not bother to try and prove that they can run against us.  Something the Bengals didn't bother to do either.  Anyhow, it boils down to the #2 passing attack against a middle of the pack pass D.  And on the other side of the ball it's the same thing, only different.  We're the great running attack against their middle of the pack run D.  (they DID just add Bradley Chubb to their D though)

I haven't checked the point spread, but to me the game is pretty even.  The Dolphins great passing attack being a little more valuable than our great running attack (IMO being able to pass is more valuable than being able to run).....and their being at home....I'd probably make them a 3 point favorite.  We're a northern team and they're a southern team...but the weather, up until yesterday has been sort of an Indigenous Peoples Summer    up here in the north, so I don't see the temperature difference being much of a factor.

It's actually a pretty neat matchup.  The good running team against the good passing team.  Let's hope for the same outcome as last week for us.  -  They're pretty much all must win games now.  We can't lose...because we squandered wins away against teams that we were supposed to beat.  

Thanks for the breakdown, it is most appreciated, and I look forward to it. I promise, you have a lot of silent fans out here. Please keep up with this. It really adds to the board and I look forward to it.

I agree that this seems a toss up, and that we need the same team to show up that showed up last game.

Regarding run versus pass, here is my take. I agree that passing is more important. It is harder to shut down a passing attack which has many different components and possible coverages.

The run game can be stiffled with stacking the box.

The sneaky value of course is once you make an opponent account for your pass game, the run game opens up and a guy like Chubb can wear a defense down.

The Browns can't be stupid and try to run first. Defenses seem to stack up early and instead of capitalizing with play action passes, the Browns seem to oblige opposing defenses and run right into them.

Finally, winning the division is arithmetically possible so I am hopeful too. (+,×,÷,- is arithmetic, not mathematics).

Finally, I love NFL on Sunday night, Mnf and Tnf but combined with the bye.week, I really hate the fucking long wait to play again in between this shit.

I tell people that I love the NFL, but the long layoff weeks blow and gold little for me other than cheering for the Ravens and Steelers to get fucked up.

[Orion]

9 hours ago, Ghoolie Always Ghoolie said:

Thanks for the breakdown, it is most appreciated, and I look forward to it. I promise, you have a lot of silent fans out here. Please keep up with this. It really adds to the board and I look forward to it.

...umm...ok....but aren't you the same guy that insinuated that these numbers told you nothing and that it was a valueless thread created to hear myself talk?

 

9 hours ago, Ghoolie Always Ghoolie said:

The Browns can't be stupid and try to run first. Defenses seem to stack up early and instead of capitalizing with play action passes, the Browns seem to oblige opposing defenses and run right into them.

... or they'll go empty backfield, which makes me shake my head. 

The thing is, if Stef throws the ball people get all upset that we're not running the ball (almost as if, 'we should run it every down because we'll get a first down every third of 4th run play').  I wish that Kosar was a color commentator because he could explain why running into the teeth of the defense would be difficult.  It's more like sex.  You have to soften them up with making play action passes, before you plow ahead balls to the wall.    

[Ghoolie Always Ghoolie]

4 hours ago, Orion said:

...umm...ok....but aren't you the same guy that insinuated that these numbers told you nothing and that it was a valueless thread created to hear myself talk?

 

... or they'll go empty backfield, which makes me shake my head. 

The thing is, if Stef throws the ball people get all upset that we're not running the ball (almost as if, 'we should run it every down because we'll get a first down every third of 4th run play').  I wish that Kosar was a color commentator because he could explain why running into the teeth of the defense would be difficult.  It's more like sex.  You have to soften them up with making play action passes, before you plow ahead balls to the wall.    

O man, I am assuming you are not old enough to remember Ghoolardi? He attacked everything. It was considered an honor to be blasted by him.

He used to relentless attack Cleveland columnist Dorothy Fuldhiem on the air, but cherished her has a personal friend in real life.

Take my blasts with the respect.they are given. If I didn't respect you, I wouldn't give your shit.

[tiamat63]

Redzone touchdowns.

 

- Brownies are currently #5 in the NFL in redzone touchdowns.

- Miami sits at 7th.       

 

 I was hoping the difference was going to be a bit more significant, given their running game being ranked so poorly.  But then I've also looked at the redzone defenses MIA has faced and they don't appear to be any better than what the Browns have.    'Reek and Waddle make, arguably, the fastest combination of receivers in the NFL.  They love speed, it's almost like Al Davis drafted the team.   And those are the type of teams you can't run with, similar to how Oregon built their offense under Chip Kelly.   Where you beat them is up front, effecting Tua while limiting opportunities in the redzone to only FG's.    Those are (usually) the margins where you find these teams can be beat.  

[Bob806]

59 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

Redzone touchdowns.

 

- Brownies are currently #5 in the NFL in redzone touchdowns.

- Miami sits at 7th.       

 

 I was hoping the difference was going to be a bit more significant, given their running game being ranked so poorly.  But then I've also looked at the redzone defenses MIA has faced and they don't appear to be any better than what the Browns have.    'Reek and Waddle make, arguably, the fastest combination of receivers in the NFL.  They love speed, it's almost like Al Davis drafted the team.   And those are the type of teams you can't run with, similar to how Oregon built their offense under Chip Kelly.   Where you beat them is up front, effecting Tua while limiting opportunities in the redzone to only FG's.    Those are (usually) the margins where you find these teams can be beat.  

Let's hope the "communication issues" of our beloved secondary are solved. I get the feeling Tua & the Dolphins will get the ball out quick to slow down Myles. 

Very winnable game IF the Browns don't play stupid. Coming off a (stupid) BYE week, we fans are expecting a good show.

[Silver slayer]

On 11/11/2022 at 4:58 AM, Dutch Oven said:

Ward picked a rough game to come back. 

Not to worry,  he'll be back in the hospital ward burn unit before long

[tiamat63]

2 hours ago, Bob806 said:

Let's hope the "communication issues" of our beloved secondary are solved. I get the feeling Tua & the Dolphins will get the ball out quick to slow down Myles. 

Very winnable game IF the Browns don't play stupid. Coming off a (stupid) BYE week, we fans are expecting a good show.

 Quick passing is one thing, but the Dolphins identity this year has been built off forcing the ball intermediate and deep, then letting their YAC monsters go off.   Tua is currently 3rd in Yards Per Attempt.   So will MIA try to slow down the pass rush by working shorter route stems?  Highly possible, but then that sort of plays into the Browns strength,  like what we saw with Cincy - 2 deep, 5 under.  Limiting the shorter gains and tackling well in space.    Really being aggressive stemming top-down.   

 So, will MIA stay true to what they are? I'd like to think so, at least in a more stubborn approach.   So I'd expect heavy play action and a great deal of 2/3 man concepts from them.  Our backers and DB's still have to respect their running game because, even though we had a decent week against CIN, we're still weak IDL.  Would be wise for the Dolphins to come out and show hands - bluff run, then ball action, ball action, ball action.    At which point, it's really dependent on how much faith and patience Joe Woods' has.  

 

 The Dolphins, especially given the presence of Tyreek, are built scarily similar to the Chiefs.   With Waddle filling the role of Hardman, and the biggest crime being their coaching staff not finding a greater role for Gieseki (the Polish Hammer) ala Travis Kelce.      Our defensive response to deal with KC is to win a war of attrition and patience.   Make them, force them, to play patient and methodical.   Don't let them drive the ball downfield and be flashy.  Let's see if they want to earn redzone trips with 15 play drives then see if they can run the ball effectively in the redzone.  I see that playing out almost no differently here.

    The downside for the Browns, offensively speaking, is that Miami has a solid defensive front that can limit the running game.  (Unlike when we played the Chiefs)   So it's going to rest on the arm and play action of Jacoby early, and the defense holding up in the redzone.

 

 As a bettor, I'm not touching this game.  

 

 

edit: And Hardman appears to be out. HUGE difference in how you defend MIA now.

[syd]

20 hours ago, Ghoolie Always Ghoolie said:

he Browns can't be stupid and try to run first

totally agree I would start off passing on first down

well i'm outta here gonna go out for breakfast see you all at game time