Obama Victory Alters the Tenor of Iraqi Politics

[Guest Aloysius]

Obama Victory Alters the Tenor of Iraqi Politics

 

By ALISSA J. RUBIN

Published: November 6, 2008

 

BAGHDAD — Barack Obama may have been elected only three days ago, but his victory is already beginning to shift the political ground in Iraq and the region.

 

Iraqi Shiite politicians are indicating that they will move faster toward a new security agreement about American troops, and a Bush administration official said he believed that Iraqis could ratify the agreement as early as the middle of this month.

 

“Before, the Iraqis were thinking that if they sign the pact, there will be no respect for the schedule of troop withdrawal by Dec. 31, 2011,” said Hadi al-Ameri, a powerful member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a major Shiite party. “If Republicans were still there, there would be no respect for this timetable. This is a positive step to have the same theory about the timetable as Mr. Obama.”

 

Mr. Obama has said that he favors a 16-month schedule for withdrawing combat brigades, a timetable about twice as fast as that provided for in the draft American and Iraqi accord.

 

Many Shiite politicians had been under intense pressure from Iranian leaders not to sign a security agreement. Iran, which has close ties to Shiite politicians, has feared the agreement would lay the groundwork for a permanent American troop presence in Iraq that would threaten Iran.

 

But now, the Iraqis appear to be feeling less pressure from Iran, perhaps because the Iranians are less worried that an Obama government will try to force a regime change in their country.

 

In recent weeks Mr. Ameri, who spent years in Iran and leads the Badr Corps, a onetime paramilitary arm of the Supreme Council, was one of several senior party members who appeared to be reflecting Iran’s concerns with a reluctance to endorse the pact.

 

Of course, given the volatile and fractious state of Iraqi politics, the security agreement could still be delayed. But with Iraqis believing that Mr. Obama, as president, would move faster to withdraw American troops, Iraqi and American officials said obstacles to a security agreement appeared to be fading.

 

Jabeer Habeeb, an independent Shiite lawmaker and a political scientist at Baghdad University, put it simply: “Obama’s election shifts Iraq into a new position.”

[Mr. T]

Bush had already started stepping up bringing the troops home, earlier than expected.

 

its not an Obama thing.

 

But remember that if Turkey or Iran cross over into Iraq that will delay everything.

[Guest Aloysius]

As the article states, Bush was having trouble getting the Iraqis to agree to a new status of forces agreement, even one that said troops would be out by 2011. The Iraqis didn't trust that the US would actually leave; with Obama elected, they're now a lot more trusting.

 

And on the Turkey/Iran topic, Turkey's already conducted cross-border raids into Iraqi Kurdistan. But the more recent reports have Turkish & Kurdish officials meeting to resolve their differences, which is a very positive sign.

 

On Iran, I don't know anyone who thinks Iran is going to invade Iraq. Why would Iran invade a country it already has tremendous influence in, especially when it's trying to avoid international condemnation/sanctions for having a covert nuclear weapons program?

 

It makes no sense.

[Westside Steve]

And on the Turkey/Iran topic, Turkey's already conducted cross-border raids into Iraqi Kurdistan. But the more recent reports have Turkish & Kurdish officials meeting to resolve their differences, which is a very positive sign.

 

"Positive signs" gang aft agley.

 

WSS

[Guest Aloysius]

Okay...

 

I guess I'll add that Turkey has several incentives to play nice with Iraqi Kurds. For one, Turkey's history of poorly treating its own Kurdish minority is one of the stumbling blocks to its joining the EU. Though Turkey's taken some positive steps toward equal rights for its Kurdish citizens, tensions with Iraqi Kurds could really screw things up.

 

Beyond that, Turkey's become a regional power-broker over the past few years. They've mediated talks between Israel and Syria, and there have been calls for Turkey to serve as a neutral arbiter between Russia & Georgia. Invading a neighboring country would wipe away any possibility of Turkey becoming a respected regional power-broker.

 

So while small-scale skirmishes could happen, I don't see Turkey waging a full-scale invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan.

[calfoxwc]

Didn't Turkey venture into N. Iraq, to go after Kurdish rebels from Turkey?

 

I don't remember exactly what the story was on that...

[Chicopee John]

Didn't Turkey venture into N. Iraq, to go after Kurdish rebels from Turkey?

 

I don't remember exactly what the story was on that...

 

Never trust one of those low-down and dirty Turks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Mr. T]

And on the Turkey/Iran topic, Turkey's already conducted cross-border raids into Iraqi Kurdistan. But the more recent reports have Turkish & Kurdish officials meeting to resolve their differences, which is a very positive sign.

 

"Positive signs" gang aft agley.

 

WSS

 

 

'often go awry'

[Guest Aloysius]

Didn't Turkey venture into N. Iraq, to go after Kurdish rebels from Turkey?

Yeah, a little over a year ago.

 

And here's the report about Turks & Iraqi Kurds meeting last month:

Turkish officials yesterday pressed the president of Iraq's Kurdish enclave to crack down on the Kurdish separatists launching cross-border attacks from their Iraqi mountain sanctuaries.

 

It was the first direct talks in four years between Turkey and Massoud Barzani, president of the three-province semiautonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq.

 

The meeting was held as Turkish media reported that five Turkish soldiers were wounded yesterday in a Kurdish guerrilla attack on a military convoy in southeastern Turkey.

 

Turkey has been pressing the Iraqi Kurdish administration to cut supply lines in its territory used by the guerrillas of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which has fought for autonomy in Turkey, and to arrest and hand over its leaders who live across the border in Iraq.

 

Turkish pressure has increased since PKK rebels killed 17 Turkish soldiers on the Turkey-Iraq border earlier this month. Iraqi Kurdish authorities condemned the Oct. 3 attack, but the Turks are demanding more.

 

Iraqi Kurds, which have their own police and armed force, are largely responsible for security in the northern areas of the country where the PKK operates, rather than US or Iraqi troops.

So the situation doesn't seem as positive as I depicted it above.

 

Well, at least they're talking...

[osusev]

We will see what influence Biden has on strategy in Iraq.

 

The kurdish north is basically a seperate country within Iraq, The Shia south is basically autonomous from the Sunni/shia central Iraq. The sunni are being paid by us to keep the peace. Like the Bosnia conflict THAT WAS SETTLED BY SPLITTING THE COUNTRY, Iraq is basically already split.

 

Iran, Iran, Iran we have to meet and deal directly with the Iranians something Bush and Mccain would not do. This is the factor that is altering the perception from the Iraqi's. We will see how this plays out with Obama but I suspect we will be in a much better place within 36 months in Iraq.