WPB Dawg Fan Posted September 19, 2009 Report Share Posted September 19, 2009 Here is the explanation of Air Yards that was posted in my last thread (and yes, I deleted it as I was tired of the ranting going on in it). Anyway, here it is: Jan 7, 2009 Air Yards 2008 Trying to measure individual performance in football is nearly impossible. Perhaps kickers are the only players whose performance we can isolate from the rest of his team. The position in a distant second might be the quarterback. But measuring QB performance with statistics is still very problematic. Consider this tale of two QBs. One quarterback led his team to a 12-4 regular season record after starting slow at 3-3. He won the Associated Press's MVP award. Another quarterback was replaced due to ineffectiveness early in the season by an aging journeyman best known for headbutting a stadium wall. Which one would you want on your team? You wouldn't be able to tell from their official stats. Although one didn't play the entire season, both passers had nearly identical "per attempt stats." The first QB threw for 7.2 yards per attempt and the second QB threw for 7.1. They both had a 95 NFL passer rating. Actually, Tavaris Jackson's was 95.4 and Peyton Manning's was 95. But then again, I might be able to approach a 95 rating if I were throwing dump-offs to Adrian Peterson. If football were a brand new invention, and we had to decide how to credit the various amounts of yards gained to various players, how would we do it? If I said, "There's this kind of play called a pass, in which a thrower passes the ball to a another player who then runs with it as far as he can. I say we credit all the yards run by the receiver to the thrower." You'd say I was nuts. I'd say, "Well, it takes a special kind of talent for a passer to get a lot of yardage after the catch (YAC). I won't be able to prove it, in fact, I won't have any evidence for that statement at all, but I still think our primary measure of a passer should include all those yards." I'd be laughed at. Here are the QBs from 2007 who led the league in percent of their passing yardage as YAC: Croyle, Testaverde, Greise, Harrington, Favre, McCown, Losman, and Lemon. The 2006 list includes Brunell, Carr, Favre, (Rob) Johnson, and (Alex) Smith. There's isn't a single guy on that list who we can call a legitimate starter. The 2008 season's list of leaders in %YAC include Cassel, O'Sullivan, Campbell, Favre (again), Losman, and Wallace. But Matt Cassel is good, right? Maybe not. Keep in mind how good the team around him was. He was handed the keys to a Ferrari. If a QB racks up his passing yards with YAC, he's either throwing lots of short check-downs and screens, or he has spectacular receivers--or both. Neither is necessarily an indication of a particularly skilled passer. If we throw away all the YAC and look underneath, what do we have left? I call it Air Yards (AY). It's the distance forward of the line of scrimmage a pass travels. Although it's not a perfect measure of a passer, I think it makes a lot more sense than crediting Donovan McNabb with 71 yards and a touchdown for a 1-yard screen pass to Brian Westbrook. To be clear, I'm not claiming that a QB has absolutely zero contribution to YAC. The QB has to complete the pass for there to be any YAC in the first place. It's just that the majority of credit assignable between the QB and receiver is due to the receiver. (Much of it can be attributed to the defense and to random variation). Plus, there are better ways of crediting the QB for a completion. Looking at Air Yards at least tells us a lot about a QB that we wouldn't otherwise know. I might be throwing a little of the signal out with the bathwater, but the remaining signal-to-noise ratio is hopefully much better. Rank Name Yds YAC YAC% AY/Att 1 Delhomme 3288 1269 39 4.9 2 Ryan 3440 1404 41 4.7 3 Rivers 4009 1840 44 4.5 4 Rodgers 4038 1652 41 4.5 5 Pennington 3653 1546 42 4.4 6 Rosenfels 1431 664 46 4.4 7 Cutler 4526 1881 42 4.3 8 Manning P 4002 1627 41 4.3 9 Manning E 3238 1220 38 4.2 10 Brees 5069 2398 47 4.2 11 Romo 3448 1578 46 4.2 12 Schaub 3043 1470 48 4.1 13 Roethlisberg 3301 1368 41 4.1 14 Warner 4583 2173 47 4.0 15 Hill 2046 895 44 4.0 16 Garrard 3620 1494 41 4.0 17 Garcia 2712 1248 46 3.9 18 Edwards 2699 1266 47 3.8 19 Orlovsky 1616 652 40 3.8 20 Frerotte 2157 1023 47 3.8 21 Jackson 1056 502 48 3.7 22 McNabb 3916 1805 46 3.7 23 Hasselbeck 1216 451 37 3.7 24 O'Sullivan 1678 887 53 3.6 25 Flacco 2971 1433 48 3.6 26 Thigpen 2608 1101 42 3.6 27 Russell 2423 1143 47 3.5 28 Collins 2676 1292 48 3.3 29 Orton 2972 1450 49 3.3 30 Favre 3472 1779 51 3.2 31 Quinn 518 230 44 3.2 32 Wallace 1532 755 49 3.2 33 Griese 1073 488 45 3.2 34 Anderson 1615 724 45 3.1 35 Bulger 2720 1336 49 3.1 36 Campbell 3245 1686 52 3.1 37 Cassel 3693 2116 57 3.1 38 Palmer 731 358 49 2.9 39 Fitzpatrick 1905 848 45 2.8 40 Losman 584 294 50 2.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPB Dawg Fan Posted September 19, 2009 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2009 I really didn't think that AY/Attempt made a lot of sense....as it took into account incompletions....so a QB with a high completion rate would look like they threw the ball farther on average than a QB with a low completion percentage....so... Here is how it looks with AY/Completion (this shows the TRUE DEEP THREATS): Name Passes Comp AY/Comp Delhomme 2019 246 8.21 Ryan 2036 265 7.68 Hasselbeck 765 109 7.02 Rodgers 2386 341 7.00 E.Manning 2018 289 6.98 Rivers 2169 312 6.95 Cutler 2645 384 6.89 Reothlisberger 1933 281 6.88 Romo 1870 276 6.78 Orolovsky 964 143 6.74 Rosenfels 767 116 6.61 Pennington 2107 321 6.56 Thigpen 1507 230 6.55 Brees 2671 413 6.47 Russel 1280 198 6.46 P.Manning 2375 371 6.40 Quinn 288 45 6.40 Frerotte 1134 178 6.37 Hill 1151 181 6.36 Garrard 2126 335 6.35 Jackson 554 88 6.30 Anderson 891 142 6.27 Schaub 1573 251 6.27 O'Sullivan 791 128 6.18 McNabb 2111 345 6.12 Warner 2410 401 6.01 Flacco 1538 257 5.98 Garcia 1446 244 5.93 Edwards 1433 245 5.85 Collins 1384 242 5.72 Orton 1522 272 5.60 Bulger 1384 251 5.51 Wallace 777 141 5.51 Griese 585 110 5.32 Palmer 373 75 4.97 Campbell 1559 315 4.95 Favre 1693 343 4.94 Cassel 1577 327 4.82 Fitzpatrick 1057 221 4.78 Losman 290 63 4.60 Quinn is ranked #17 Anderson is ranked #22 A couple of surprises are Favre and Palmer being so low...but at least Palmer had injury as an excuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlaygroundLegend Posted September 19, 2009 Report Share Posted September 19, 2009 I must say that this is brilliant and is a great asset in evaluating a QB, of course, combine it with completion percentage and QB rating and you could actually create an accurate list of who is a great QB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalDog Posted September 19, 2009 Report Share Posted September 19, 2009 GASP!!! I knew DA was a noodle arm!!! LOL Quinn is the deep threat QB we needed all along! Proof right in the stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkandstoopid Posted September 19, 2009 Report Share Posted September 19, 2009 Here's his link to the 2007 season results. http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/07/br...-overrated.html Rothlesburgle lead the league at 5.2 ay/a, DA was in at 4.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gips Posted September 19, 2009 Report Share Posted September 19, 2009 Nice job and great alternative to the standard padded junk stats.. You shouldnt have deleted it the first time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkandstoopid Posted September 19, 2009 Report Share Posted September 19, 2009 As per usual to make DA look competitive we gotta turn the clock back to 07.... Just giving the full picture. Healthy DA, healthy receivers all season. Don't know if it made any difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPB Dawg Fan Posted September 19, 2009 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2009 As per usual to make DA look competitive we gotta turn the clock back to 07.... I may take a look at that too, and see how he stands up with AY/Comp. It should be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D'Qwimbley Posted September 19, 2009 Report Share Posted September 19, 2009 I think the passer rating is actually pretty good -- Yards Per Attempt is the equivalent of Slugging Percentage: The bottom line is, how many yards do you get for your team each time you pass the ball? It's the bottom line in many ways. If you're picked, it's zip. Then the next big issue is TDs versus INTs. So it really is logical. Sluggin Percentage! Ah you caught the eye of a resident sabermetrician with that one shep. Even though slg may be a weak sabermetric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sez.EJ Posted September 19, 2009 Report Share Posted September 19, 2009 Look at your list.. the top QB's almost to a man (there are an exception or two) have very good or dominant run games... You have to make the defense honor the run if you want to be an effective passing team. I hope to see us try to controll the clock more by running the ball this week Delhomme 2019 246 8.21 Deangelo williams, jonathan stewart Ryan 2036 265 7.68 michael turner, norwood Hasselbeck 765 109 7.02 Ok exception..julius jones..although when healthy can be very effective Rodgers 2386 341 7.00 Ryan Grant E.Manning 2018 289 6.98 addai, edgarin james in the past..now the rookie brown Rivers 2169 312 6.95 LT and Sproles Cutler 2645 384 6.89 combo of backs used effectively Reothlisberger 1933 281 6.88 willie parker.. mawelde moore, Romo 1870 276 6.78 marion barber Rosenfels 767 116 6.61 matte forte Pennington 2107 321 6.56 Ronnie brown, ricky williams Also these guys nearly to a man have good recieving backs on the team that can make big plays.. It's more than just qb's and recievers that make a passing game go..the running game is CRITICAL.. Especially if you are a lower tier team like the Browns..it's even MORE important to be able to make the opposition honor the run to be a better passing team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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