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How Bad Will Unemployment Become

Mr. T

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How Bad Will Unemployment Become


Unemployment by industry: Brace for Impact


Friday the Labor Department disgorged a mountain of ugly unemployment data. Another``surprising'' jump in joblessness made headlines.


iTulip has observed and analyzed changes in the US economy for over ten years. In the current economic cycle, since 2006, we have focused on median duration of unemployment to give us early warning of rising unemployment.


Here we extend that analysis to point us to where unemployment is headed overall and also delve into 14 major industry sectors, including one you work in, to fine tune our forecast.


There is no doubt in our minds that this is The Big One -- a depression is all but certain unless the US develops and executes a post WWII scale stimulus plan starting in 2009, but the structure of that stimulus is critical to avoid turning the US into a sclerotic economy dominated by large corporations and big government. In any case, we forecast 10 million jobs lost by the end of next year.


NOTE: Janszen Interview on CBC News: Sunday, Airs Nov. 9th, 2008 @9:40 AM (EST) debates the government bailout of Big Three automakers.


A mass layoff is the event of at least 50 persons let go by a single employer. Mass layoff events and initial claimants for unemployment insurance September 2007 was 1,307. For September 2008 it increased 57% to 2,269.


iTulip member PHS posted the following report on Friday from Pa. It gives us on-the-ground evidence of the impact.

Since 1990, I have served as a pastor in the UCC (Obama's former denomination) in central Pa. Never in the past 18 years have I had sooo many people call me for assistance. What was once rare now happens several times a week. These people aren't just passing through either. They live in the community. "My electric has been turned off." "We're out of food and the food bank told us to call the local churches." "I've never been layed-off before, I'm really ashamed to call you but we're behind on our bills." ...and so on. I believe that 10 million are now called "unemployed." This is what some of them look like. I suspect this figure will rise significantly over the next year or so. I suspect that I'll be hearing from some of them too.

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I work in Financial Services and bullets were in the air yesterday. Fortunately, our area came out unscathed - for the time being.


Not pretty.



10 per cent is on the horizon

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