WPB Dawg Fan Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 A lot of speculation is oging around about where DA is going to end up. I have been going over the team needs of the principal destinations and keep coming back to this: 1. They have five (5) picks in the first 82 of the draft (#1/#20/#33/#65/#82) 2. They have a huge need for OL, LT in specific...and there are a couple at top of 1st round worth taking #1. 3. The Browns and Dolphins have both shown success following drafting a LT (sure, the next year sucked...but...) 4. There no SENIOR QB's that will be taken on the first day...and those are the ones that have shown the best outcomes 5. Derek Anderson can be had for a high 2nd round pick (#33) So the Lions could take a LT at #1 to shore up the OL (and cost less than a QB...and an underclassman QB at that) Then they can take a defensive player with the #20 overall pick to shore up that side of the ball Then, with the #33 overall pick, they can trade it to Cleveland and get Derek Anderson. With receivers like WR Calvin Johnson (6'5" 239) John Standeford (6'4" 206) and TE Michael Gaines (6'4" 277)...he will feel like he is back in the saddle again. Not to mention the backfield of Kevin Smith and Rudi Johnson. The fact is, the Lions have the extra picks to do it...at a level that the Browns would be happy to take...have the cap room to fit him under contract...and will improve the OVERALL team more by trading that pick than by taking a QB at #1. (As a side note...by taking an OL at #1...it about ensures that the Browns will have another trade possible at #5...as at least one of the QB's or Crabtree will be available at that slot.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rr59eagle Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 A lot of speculation is oging around about where DA is going to end up. I have been going over the team needs of the principal destinations and keep coming back to this: 1. They have five (5) picks in the first 82 of the draft (#1/#20/#33/#65/#82) 2. They have a huge need for OL, LT in specific...and there are a couple at top of 1st round worth taking #1. 3. The Browns and Dolphins have both shown success following drafting a LT (sure, the next year sucked...but...) 4. There no SENIOR QB's that will be taken on the first day...and those are the ones that have shown the best outcomes 5. Derek Anderson can be had for a high 2nd round pick (#33) So the Lions could take a LT at #1 to shore up the OL (and cost less than a QB...and an underclassman QB at that) Then they can take a defensive player with the #20 overall pick to shore up that side of the ball Then, with the #33 overall pick, they can trade it to Cleveland and get Derek Anderson. With receivers like WR Calvin Johnson (6'5" 239) John Standeford (6'4" 206) and TE Michael Gaines (6'4" 277)...he will feel like he is back in the saddle again. Not to mention the backfield of Kevin Smith and Rudi Johnson. The fact is, the Lions have the extra picks to do it...at a level that the Browns would be happy to take...have the cap room to fit him under contract...and will improve the OVERALL team more by trading that pick than by taking a QB at #1. (As a side note...by taking an OL at #1...it about ensures that the Browns will have another trade possible at #5...as at least one of the QB's or Crabtree will be available at that slot.) Only problem is ,I do not think DA is worthy of that high a pick,,,Wishfull thinking and if this scenario were offered ...jump on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPB Dawg Fan Posted January 28, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 You make a good case. But if experience is the issue, Stafford has tons. I think this article says it way better than I can.... Underclassman QB's Almost Always Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPB Dawg Fan Posted January 28, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 Add Vince Young to the failures...and take Rodgers into the successes...and you still have about a 20% success rate for underclassman QB's taken in the 1st round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpkin Eater Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 Trade DA and the #5 pick to detroit for their #20 pick, #33, & #65 pick, along with next years second rounder and fourth rounder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPB Dawg Fan Posted January 28, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 Trade DA and the #5 pick to detroit for their #20 pick, #33, & #65 pick, along with next years second rounder and fourth rounder. No team would ever want to have the #1 and #5 picks in the same draft. It would blow up their entire cap on two unproven rookies. Now if there were a clear #1 pick...and we bundled the #5 and DA to get it...that might fly...but there is no way they take the #5 off of us. I was thinking that the chances of trading down from the #5 to say #17 (yes, the Jets will need a QB) or SF at #10 would have improved greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greythan Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 Add Vince Young to the failures...and take Rodgers into the successes...and you still have about a 20% success rate for underclassman QB's taken in the 1st round. Rodgers, due to his apprenticeship in GB, took a different route from the typical underclassman first rounder. I think that only strengthens the argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greythan Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 and a lot of girls, like #10 in Cleveland. Don't forget the BQ Lovers on these boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YtownBrownsBacker Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 I think if Sanchez is there at 5 -- he should be, but might not be -- we need to scare the shit out of SF that we'll make a trade with the Jets. Am I crazy or does Sanchez stand to make some serious money in New York? Every Hispanic in the city will have the jersey for starters... and a lot of girls, like #10 in Cleveland. San Fran wants Sanchez and ar afraid that Tampa or Minn will trade up ahead of them. They may be the best suiter for him with the most to trade. I don't want to fall as far as Tampa or Minn. #10 would be great and we pick Everette Brown, the best 3-4 OLB, pass rusher in the draft. BTW, Detriot will pick Stafford as #1 as long as he has a good combine and pro day. They have already said that they are looking for a franchise QB to rebuild the team around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Aloysius Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 The 3rd is a little too soon for an ILB still recovering from a bad knee injury (in '07). FWIW, nfldraftscout has Brinkley pegged as a 7th Round pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zombo Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 I think if Sanchez is there at 5 -- he should be, but might not be -- we need to scare the shit out of SF that we'll make a trade with the Jets. Am I crazy or does Sanchez stand to make some serious money in New York? Every Hispanic in the city will have the jersey for starters... and a lot of girls, like #10 in Cleveland. I think the whole wild card in this year's QB sweepstakes may be your other USC mancrush, Shep ... Matt Leinart. How does Arizona not commit to Kurt Warner? The Jews only wandered the desert for 40 years, the Cardinals haven't played for a championship of any kind for 61 years! Now this guy, the nicest guy in the world by the way, gets you to the Super Bowl, and you drop him for Mr. Hot Tub? Not going to happen. Leinart will be a hotter commodity than Derek Anderson. Together, they will take two of the starting jobs out there, Jeff Garcia will take a third. I think Leinart ends up with the Jets ... Broadway Matt. You heard it here first. Zombo --I don't really know if I'm first ... probably not ... but you heard it here ... Leinart to the Jets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riceloft Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 Warner is so old though, how long could they really commit to him for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JewDago Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 The 3rd is a little too soon for an ILB still recovering from a bad knee injury (in '07). FWIW, nfldraftscout has Brinkley pegged as a 7th Round pick. which means we'll have to take him in the sixth, which is where i've seen him pegged to go. i'd even be happy with getting brinkley in the fifth if we had a pick there, but, alas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Aloysius Posted January 29, 2009 Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 Frantz Joseph is another Day Two 3-4 ILB to consider. It's early, but I really doubt that San Francisco would be willing to move up to 5 for Sanchez. Though they definitely could use a franchise QB, Mike Singletary has also talked about how much they need another pass-rusher, as well as another o-lineman. And everyone's expecting them to draft a safety, perhaps as high as the 2nd Round. The picks necessary to trade up to 5 would make filling those holes a lot less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Aloysius Posted January 29, 2009 Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 Alo, you ruin all my fun! That's what I'm here for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPB Dawg Fan Posted January 29, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 I think the whole wild card in this year's QB sweepstakes may be your other USC mancrush, Shep ... Matt Leinart. How does Arizona not commit to Kurt Warner? The Jews only wandered the desert for 40 years, the Cardinals haven't played for a championship of any kind for 61 years! Now this guy, the nicest guy in the world by the way, gets you to the Super Bowl, and you drop him for Mr. Hot Tub? Not going to happen. Leinart will be a hotter commodity than Derek Anderson. Together, they will take two of the starting jobs out there, Jeff Garcia will take a third. I think Leinart ends up with the Jets ... Broadway Matt. You heard it here first. Zombo --I don't really know if I'm first ... probably not ... but you heard it here ... Leinart to the Jets. AZ would be absolute fools to dump Leinart. His contract is very affordable for a #2...and Warner is 38. You don't dump your QB in waiting just becuase he starts getting a little itchy waiting...(see Aaron Rodgers). Leinart will be in AZ for the next 2 years...and I doubt Warner asks for more than a front end laden 2yr contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zombo Posted January 29, 2009 Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 Warner is so old though, how long could they really commit to him for? Long enough to trade Leinart, grab some picks and groom a new guy. Zombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zombo Posted January 29, 2009 Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 Leinart will be in AZ for the next 2 years...and I doubt Warner asks for more than a front end laden 2yr contract. Leinart was a Top Ten pick. If he backs up Warner for two more years, that is 5 years on the bench. I don't see that happening. Plus, I don't think Whisenhunt loves him. If I am the Cardinal GM, I am trading Leinart and drafting a new guy to bring along. Warner has a lot of games left in him, he's hasn't lost a thing off his fastball. Zombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPB Dawg Fan Posted January 29, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 Leinart was a Top Ten pick. If he backs up Warner for two more years, that is 5 years on the bench. I don't see that happening. Plus, I don't think Whisenhunt loves him. If I am the Cardinal GM, I am trading Leinart and drafting a new guy to bring along. Warner has a lot of games left in him, he's hasn't lost a thing off his fastball. Zombo True...but you seem to forget one thing...his WIFE. She has been pestering him (by his own words) to retire now for several years. Add into that the scare he got when Bolden got hurt and he almost retired then and there...and I don't see him signing a long term contract. As for Leinart...he signed a 6 yr contract and won't be a FA until 2012....so they got time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YtownBrownsBacker Posted January 29, 2009 Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 Frantz Joseph is another Day Two 3-4 ILB to consider. It's early, but I really doubt that San Francisco would be willing to move up to 5 for Sanchez. Though they definitely could use a franchise QB, Mike Singletary has also talked about how much they need another pass-rusher, as well as another o-lineman. And everyone's expecting them to draft a safety, perhaps as high as the 2nd Round. The picks necessary to trade up to 5 would make filling those holes a lot less likely. John York was back in Youngstown a week or so ago and was telling people that he felt the problem with the team was that they blew it on Smith and he wants Singletary to build the offense around a franchise QB. He wants a new QB to be the face of the franchise. The rumor actually was that he wasn't to happy with Singletary because of his lack of committment to the offensive side of the ball. Could be Leinhart. York had a man crush on him when he came out of college and is still pissed that Nolan talked him into Smith. He also is aware of Anderson and his status and doesn't feel anybody is going to take him off of Cleveland's hands before that bonus is paid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballpeen Posted January 29, 2009 Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 Speaking of the Lions, and not about DA....I also think they might become a 1st round trade partner. If any team needs to make a splash with their fans, it's the Lions. Some sites have them selecting Stafford #1...others Smith #1. The Smith selection first makes sense....protect the qb and all of that....but it makes sense because qbs selected #1 get a premium above and beyond for lack of a better expression. If the Lions want Stafford or Dirty, it makes more sense to select him 5th overall.....not 1st...allow the OT to set the QB rate and not the other way around. The Lions have some picks....take our 5th pick, we get their 20th selection in round 1 and then set what else we get, both this year and next. We, as fans might be gearing for next season, but I doubt the new staff feels pressured in winning next year.....just improving. They have their eye on a few years down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if we traded with the Lions...and them having 2 of the first 5 picks this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zombo Posted January 29, 2009 Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 True...but you seem to forget one thing...his WIFE. She has been pestering him (by his own words) to retire now for several years. Add into that the scare he got when Bolden got hurt and he almost retired then and there...and I don't see him signing a long term contract. As for Leinart...he signed a 6 yr contract and won't be a FA until 2012....so they got time. I see what you are saying... but I think that contract makes Leinart highly tradeable. And you can not underestimate the kind of season Kurt Warner has had and what it means to the Cardinals franchise. If I am the Bidwells, charter members of the NFL, and haven't got a whiff of a championship since Truman's first term ... here is how my negotiations would go with Kurt Warner: "Kurt, here's a 4-year deal that pays you top dollar, we are donating $1 million toward a Christian charity and naming your wife president, and we've traded pretty boy to the Jets for a 1st round draft pick ... is there anything else we can do make you comfortable?" John, I think there's a better chance Anderson is a Brown next year than Leinart is a Cardinal ... and I'll bet you a cold one. Zombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Masters Posted January 29, 2009 Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 He played really well as his rookie year progressed. That is a bit of a stretch. He was all over the map from beginning to the end of his 10 starts in 2006. Heck they look like Fryes #'s. He didn't look much better before the injury in 2007 either. Someone is gonna get him away from ARZ and I think that team will end up sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flugel Posted January 29, 2009 Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 and a lot of girls, like #10 in Cleveland. You ain't kiddin - that's prolly why all the men in Oregon hate him. - Tom F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPB Dawg Fan Posted January 29, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 Speaking of the Lions, and not about DA....I also think they might become a 1st round trade partner. If any team needs to make a splash with their fans, it's the Lions. Some sites have them selecting Stafford #1...others Smith #1. The Smith selection first makes sense....protect the qb and all of that....but it makes sense because qbs selected #1 get a premium above and beyond for lack of a better expression. If the Lions want Stafford or Dirty, it makes more sense to select him 5th overall.....not 1st...allow the OT to set the QB rate and not the other way around. The Lions have some picks....take our 5th pick, we get their 20th selection in round 1 and then set what else we get, both this year and next. We, as fans might be gearing for next season, but I doubt the new staff feels pressured in winning next year.....just improving. They have their eye on a few years down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if we traded with the Lions...and them having 2 of the first 5 picks this year. Peen...that just isn't financially viable. Last years #1 was $57.75M...and the #5 was $33M...and NEITHER was a QB. That means that the combined cost of the #1 and #5 will be in EXCESS of $90.75M...and that is not even factoring in the QB upgrade in the contract. I just don't see any team being able to fit almost $100M on two rookies into their cap space for the next 5-6yrs (typical length of 1st round draft choices). The other teams who may be in the running for DA (Minn/Chic/SF/Car/KC/TB) are not likely to send their 1st round to us either...but they may go 2nd/3rd or 2nd/4th (although KC may be able to go straight 2nd). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPB Dawg Fan Posted January 29, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 I'm with Zombo on this. Leinart has grown up a ton (partially thanks to Warner) but I don't see him staying around unless Warner signs a one year deal. I know it's out of his hands, but if SF were to offer their 2nd round pick, and if AZ wants to risk committing three more years to Warner, then they would probably take it and draft a quarterback in 2010 to watch Warner for ONE year. Leinart was 22 when he came out, a three year starter in a pro style offense. He played really well as his rookie year progressed. I don't think he has any interest in being a long-term caddy to anybody. Again regarding Leinart...the RETURN would have to be pretty significant to justify trading him. He offers the Cards too much value in a guy they have been grooming...and the overall value of his contract. The just paid him a $7.45M bonus in '08. That is a huge chunk of change and investment to just walk away from at the end of the season. He also is due only $1.11M this year. That is cheap insurance in case Warner goes down (and we Browns fans know about QBs going down). It is also only $2.485M in 2010. Still relatively cheap in terms of a backup and a up and coming starter. If you figure a 2yr deal for Warner (taking him to 40yrs old)....Leinart could continue to grow and mature under him...and be a very affordable cap hit...then in 2011 when his cap goes to over $7M he takes over as starter and if he does well gets a nice shiny new contract. If I were a GM....you would have to offer me at least a 1st and a 2nd to pry him away from me. After all...it is going to take a 1st to replace him...and it will cost me MORE against my cap for the new guy....and I will be starting all over again instead of having a guy with NFL experience and that knows my system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Masters Posted January 29, 2009 Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 Masters, in his last 6 starts of 2006, Leinart had three games with a passer rating over 100 and one at 90. That's very nice. One of those over 100 is in a half of play. I cannot assume his passer rating would have remained that good if he played the second half of the game. But even keeping that one in, in those 4 games he had a total of 5TDs, never threw for more than 235 yards. All he did was not turn the ball over. Kind of shows how deceiving the QB rating can be some times. Keep in mind Charlie Frye had 2 games with QBR above 100, and one at 89 in his last 6 starts in 2006 too. Matt also had a 51 and 76 QBR in those last 6 games in 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WPB Dawg Fan Posted January 29, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 interesting twist to the question "where will DA go?" question: Jagodzinski, the BC coach that got fired, is not the OC at Tampa Bay. What does this have to do with DA? Well, Jagodzinski was the OC at GB in 2006...when Brett Favre was QB. If there is a guy out there who might think he can run an offense around a big armed gun slinger....he would fit the bill. He also coached a pass first, run second offense at BC...and had QB's that were completing in the 50% range this past year (in fact Ryan had very DA-esque numbers with him in 2007). Anyway...as many have conjectured, TB may be looking more long term now that a coaching change has occurred...so this may open up the door for DA...especially considering TB is not in a good draft position to get either one of the top two....nor the second batch of QB's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.