What's Wrong With Ray Horton?

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

http://factoryofsadness.sportsblog.com/posts/222659/what_s_wrong_with_ray.html

 

Is he really this defensive guru that we've been led to believe?

[bbedward]

Is he really this defensive guru that we've been led to believe?

No. Too many basic things bamboozle our defense all game and we can't stop it, these crazy blitz packages we have don't look too advanced, etc.

 

But he deserves time to get it right, so there's that.

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

For the record, that sportsblog website formatting is shite. It's impossible to do anything that you want, and it just randomly changes the coding whenever it wants. That's why some paragraphs have different font colors, sizes, etc.

[nickers]

He's what I thought he was...overrated...you only need to look at the Cardinals poor production on Defense the last few years.

[Clevfan4life]

wtf we're a top 5 defense and they don't even have "their" guys. I have issues with the defense too BUT they have done overall well and Horton had converted this group from a 4-3. Easy on the talk about Horton. If our outside rushers only have 8 or so sacks between all of em next year I'll start to grumble...year 3 is where I might start to yell if some of these issues are still popping up. I honestly think our secondary has been pretty damn good solely on scheme. Talent wise they may be "so so".

[jrb12711]

http://factoryofsadness.sportsblog.com/posts/222659/what_s_wrong_with_ray.html

 

Is he really this defensive guru that we've been led to believe?

 

I've said it several times on here, but my problem with him over the past 5-6 games are the blitz calls. No matter what we send blitz wise it always seems to get picked up by the offense. The first couple games I though maybe it was the players, but it's clear now it's the scheme. Even the mediocre QB's of the NFL are going to find guys when you send 6-7 and it's blocked well. It seems like he's becoming predictable on the calls.

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

wtf we're a top 5 defense and they don't even have "their" guys. I have issues with the defense too BUT they have done overall well and Horton had converted this group from a 4-3. Easy on the talk about Horton. If our outside rushers only have 8 or so sacks between all of em next year I'll start to grumble...year 3 is where I might start to yell if some of these issues are still popping up. I honestly think our secondary has been pretty damn good solely on scheme. Talent wise they may be "so so".

In what statistical category are we top 5?

 

We're 8th in YPG, 9th in sacks, 14 in points allowed. Everything else, we're in the bottom third of the league.

 

The yards per game is an inflated stat, as we were giving our opponents good field position for a few games this season, which would naturally result in less yards.

 

The real measure of defense is PPG and we're giving up 25 points per game, which is a regression from last season. We average about .75 picks per game and .5 FFs per game, which is a regression from last years figures of 1.1 INT/game and 1 FF/game. All of this without losing a single quality defensive starter from last season and with no full time starters on the IR. In fact, we've gained talent in acquiring Kruger, Bryant and Mingo, and our defensive personnel are better suited for the 3-4 rather than the 4-3 anyway.

 

Horton didn't have to convert anyone, DQJ has played in both the 3-4 and the 4-3 in Cleveland, Kruger came from a 3-4, Bryant, Rubin and Taylor are prototypical 3-4 DL, Haden is a great man cover corner, and Ward has played in both defensive schemes. Our LB's and DL are perfect fits for the 3-4. The only real conversion is in Sheard and he's been productive thus far.

 

 

Further, our defense has given up two game winning scores in two weeks.

 

I'm not saying can Horton, because I like him. I'm just wondering if his success in Arizona was a fluke. After all, that was his first ever DC job.

[Clevfan4life]

are we really 9th in sacks? that was the one stat I figured we were way way down the chart on. Isn't our defense rated #5 overall though? Could have sworn at least last week before the NE game that we were. And of course there's a conversion in scheme from guys that played at least 2 years in Shurmurs 4-3. Kruger was a 3rd down hands in the dirt OLB'er for the Ravens, which is why he sucked at stopping the run. He was a pure pass rusher. So he had to convert to full time duties which meant learning how to stop the run, which he did....apparently at the loss of his pass rush abilities. Not sure how that happens. ANyway, Sheard also obviously had to make a switch. The inside guys were basically given the green light to attack the gaps in HOrtons scheme but they still get trapped upfield alot. None of our LB'ers except DQ were 3-4 shovel ready. I really do think another 2 years of drafting and FA acquisitions will make this a top 3 defense for years to come.

[JAFBF]

In what statistical category are we top 5?

 

We're 8th in YPG, 9th in sacks, 14 in points allowed. Everything else, we're in the bottom third of the league.

 

The yards per game is an inflated stat, as we were giving our opponents good field position for a few games this season, which would naturally result in less yards.

 

The real measure of defense is PPG and we're giving up 25 points per game, which is a regression from last season. We average about .75 picks per game and .5 FFs per game, which is a regression from last years figures of 1.1 INT/game and 1 FF/game. All of this without losing a single quality defensive starter from last season and with no full time starters on the IR. In fact, we've gained talent in acquiring Kruger, Bryant and Mingo, and our defensive personnel are better suited for the 3-4 rather than the 4-3 anyway.

 

Horton didn't have to convert anyone, DQJ has played in both the 3-4 and the 4-3 in Cleveland, Kruger came from a 3-4, Bryant, Rubin and Taylor are prototypical 3-4 DL, Haden is a great man cover corner, and Ward has played in both defensive schemes. Our LB's and DL are perfect fits for the 3-4. The only real conversion is in Sheard and he's been productive thus far.

 

 

Further, our defense has given up two game winning scores in two weeks.

 

I'm not saying can Horton, because I like him. I'm just wondering if his success in Arizona was a fluke. After all, that was his first ever DC job.

 

#2 Yards allowed per play

#4 Rushing Yards

#4 Rushing Yards per game

#2 In longest Pass allowed

#2 In average Reception allowed

#2 (tied) in Sacks (really?)

 

More than I thought.

 

There were some better until we gave up a ton of yards last week.

[Richiswhere]

Browns 30th redzone defense 65.79% http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-red-zone-scoring-pct

The site goes back as far as 2003 and this years redzone defense is the worst of them all

[nickers]

Yes...I mean why have a philosophy that lets the offense get to the redzone at all...why chance it?...Kill the fucking QB and be done with it...

[The Gipper]

Well, as noted, had the Browns defense done its part the last 2 games, the Brtowns are still in the thick of the playoff race.

 

Sure, they have not performed as bad as the Turnover prone offense....but they have not held up their end of the bargain.

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

 

#2 Yards allowed per play

#4 Rushing Yards

#4 Rushing Yards per game

#2 In longest Pass allowed

#2 In average Reception allowed

#2 (tied) in Sacks (really?)

 

More than I thought.

 

There were some better until we gave up a ton of yards last week.

 

We're tied for 9th in sacks with 37, not 2nd.

 

Our yards are going to be lower because we're ranked 26th in the league in offensive turnovers per drive.

 

We're ranked 31st in average starting position of opponent's drives. Opponents are starting, on average, on our 31 yard line.

 

We're giving the ball to the opposition with better field position, but not exactly stopping them.

 

67% of opponents drives end in first downs or scores, which is good for 13th in the league, and they are scoring quickly, with the average drive time being 2:28 (8th fastest in NFL).

 

For being top 5 in rushing yards allowed, we're still ranked right in the middle of the league in rushing TD's allowed.

 

We're also ranked 8th in passing yards allowed, but we're 13th in passing TD's allowed.

 

 

Our offense isn't helping our defense by any means, but Horton isn't exactly turning the page either. There's been a regression in nearly every major defensive statistical category, excluding yards/game, yards/att., etc.

 

#28 in Def. TO/Drive

#24 in Int./Drive

#28 in FF/Drive

 

 

 

#30 in TD/RZ (opponent scoring percentage in RZ)

#31 in Pts./RZ

 

Our redzone defense is abysmal. We're giving up a TD on 2/3 of opponents' appearances in the redzone. We're giving up nearly 6 points per redzone appearance. That's basically saying teams are almost guaranteed a TD once they hit the redzone.

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

are we really 9th in sacks? that was the one stat I figured we were way way down the chart on. Isn't our defense rated #5 overall though? Could have sworn at least last week before the NE game that we were. And of course there's a conversion in scheme from guys that played at least 2 years in Shurmurs 4-3. Kruger was a 3rd down hands in the dirt OLB'er for the Ravens, which is why he sucked at stopping the run. He was a pure pass rusher. So he had to convert to full time duties which meant learning how to stop the run, which he did....apparently at the loss of his pass rush abilities. Not sure how that happens. ANyway, Sheard also obviously had to make a switch. The inside guys were basically given the green light to attack the gaps in HOrtons scheme but they still get trapped upfield alot. None of our LB'ers except DQ were 3-4 shovel ready. I really do think another 2 years of drafting and FA acquisitions will make this a top 3 defense for years to come.

 

Overall defensive rankings are just based off yards per game. That's how the NFL does it. We fell from 5th or 6th to 8th in yards per game, but that's hardly a telling statistic.

[JAFBF]

 

We're tied for 9th in sacks with 37, not 2nd.

 

Our yards are going to be lower because we're ranked 26th in the league in offensive turnovers per drive.

 

We're ranked 31st in average starting position of opponent's drives. Opponents are starting, on average, on our 31 yard line.

 

We're giving the ball to the opposition with better field position, but not exactly stopping them.

 

67% of opponents drives end in first downs or scores, which is good for 13th in the league, and they are scoring quickly, with the average drive time being 2:28 (8th fastest in NFL).

 

For being top 5 in rushing yards allowed, we're still ranked right in the middle of the league in rushing TD's allowed.

 

We're also ranked 8th in passing yards allowed, but we're 13th in passing TD's allowed.

 

 

Our offense isn't helping our defense by any means, but Horton isn't exactly turning the page either. There's been a regression in nearly every major defensive statistical category, excluding yards/game, yards/att., etc.

 

#28 in Def. TO/Drive

#24 in Int./Drive

#28 in FF/Drive

 

 

 

#30 in TD/RZ (opponent scoring percentage in RZ)

#31 in Pts./RZ

 

Our redzone defense is abysmal. We're giving up a TD on 2/3 of opponents' appearances in the redzone. We're giving up nearly 6 points per redzone appearance. That's basically saying teams are almost guaranteed a TD once they hit the redzone.

 

Hmm, you're right.

 

When I went to Sacks it switched to Offense, and there we're tied for #2 with the Jets for Sacks allowed.

[miktoxic]

hey i'm the #1 bitching bitch that hates new regimes puppets come in with all their fantastic credentials.

 

don't like the way things look at a certain time and place and always question the top echelon from the owner to the personnel people who hired these guys.........and i'll rant and rave when they totally BLOW>

 

BUT

 

given that, i'll give anyone a chance to prove themselves more than just a one year glimpse. do i think horton gets a HC opportunity after his performance this year? hell no. but there will be some dopes that WILL give him that chance.

 

IMO after seeing what this dream team of coaching staff has done for us is the same as what shitmur gave us last year.

 

to me it's all on the FO now. seeing the schemes the coaches want to run and drafting and signing people that will actually work in such.

 

BUT if it looks the same next year at this time as it has this year then they only got one more year to prove to me that they can pull this thing together.

 

there ain't no more five year plans.

 

3 years and no improvement means you are out on your ass.

 

sorry if you disagree.

[hammertime]

Horton started off like he would be the hot new head coaching prospect for next year.

 

I think he'll be here next season, with a few new weapons he'll be THE 'next' sure thing in the coaching circuit.

 

 

He is not a bad coach, likes to gamble for sure.

[nickers]

3 years and no improvement means you are out on your ass.

 

sorry if you disagree.

 

Ding! Ding! Ding!

 

 

And we keep seeing other teams magically lift themselves with the likes of the 49er's and Seahawks making "the right" hires for thier respective teams...The excuses are wearing thin on Me in a big way.

[Clevfan4life]

 

 

 

 

3 years and no improvement means you are out on your ass.

 

sorry if you disagree.

 

I do disagree, here's why. This is cleveland. We're only gonna bring worthwhile coaches here if they see we're not shit canning coaching staffs after 2 years. A high profile team, sure...they can get rid of a guy after 2 years cause the top coaches all want to coach there. It sucks to say but because it's cleveland we have no choice but to put up with some brutal years cause not doing so continues this culture of losing. Instability at the coaching position is our #1 problem...more than at qb. People always talk about how many qb's we go through, well what's way way way worse is how many coaches we go through. We have a local guy now as coach, a guy that grew up being a browns fan. This place will matter to him. Not that he obviously can't go coach somewhere else, but he gives a shit here. Guys like fucking Holmgren need to be, and have been, drummed out of town. We need give Chud way more than 3 years dude. If the staff and FO feel like they have to make shit happen instantly, they make personnel decisions for the short term....and why not? THey don't care if they overpay a dude cause the salary cap situation years down the road may very well not affect them cause they'll be gone. That is the definition of instability. Chud needs to stay for years. Even if we have to slog through a couple sub .500 years. We need stability there like Pgh had when Cowhere was there for what, 12-15 years?

[nickers]

I do disagree, here's why. This is cleveland. We're only gonna bring worthwhile coaches here if they see we're not shit canning coaching staffs after 2 years. A high profile team, sure...they can get rid of a guy after 2 years cause the top coaches all want to coach there. It sucks to say but because it's cleveland we have no choice but to put up with some brutal years cause not doing so continues this culture of losing. Instability at the coaching position is our #1 problem...more than at qb. People always talk about how many qb's we go through, well what's way way way worse is how many coaches we go through. We have a local guy now as coach, a guy that grew up being a browns fan. This place will matter to him. Not that he obviously can't go coach somewhere else, but he gives a shit here. Guys like fucking Holmgren need to be, and have been, drummed out of town. We need give Chud way more than 3 years dude. If the staff and FO feel like they have to make shit happen instantly, they make personnel decisions for the short term....and why not? THey don't care if they overpay a dude cause the salary cap situation years down the road may very well not affect them cause they'll be gone. That is the definition of instability. Chud needs to stay for years. Even if we have to slog through a couple sub .500 years. We need stability there like Pgh had when Cowhere was there for what, 12-15 years?

 

I agree w/some of your points...however...this is a "What have you done for Me lately" League.

[Tour2ma]

Cool... maybe we can swap back to a 4-3 next year...

 

 

This from the "blog" bugged me...

 

-Injuries

The Browns defense has been healthy all season. They have lost zero full-time starters to the dreaded Injured Reserve.

 

Injury impact is the result of a lot more than IR nose count. How many games have we failed to start the same 11 on D? ... the same front 7?

 

We swapped from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Based on our early performance, both in Pre and early Regular-Season games, overall the swap went a helluva a lot better than I thought it would. But our 3-4 has never developed the cohesiveness it needs and I lay most of that at the feet of injury induced, constant line-up shuffling. Add to this that (with the possible exception of the D-line) we lack the personnel depth to adequately fill-in for missing starters and I think our slide into an "also ran" defense is understandable.

 

Well, as noted, had the Browns defense done its part the last 2 games, the Brtowns are still in the thick of the playoff race.

 

Just how "thick" is that race?

[miktoxic]

 

I do disagree, here's why. This is cleveland. We're only gonna bring worthwhile coaches here if they see we're not shit canning coaching staffs after 2 years. A high profile team, sure...they can get rid of a guy after 2 years cause the top coaches all want to coach there. It sucks to say but because it's cleveland we have no choice but to put up with some brutal years cause not doing so continues this culture of losing. Instability at the coaching position is our #1 problem...more than at qb. People always talk about how many qb's we go through, well what's way way way worse is how many coaches we go through. We have a local guy now as coach, a guy that grew up being a browns fan. This place will matter to him. Not that he obviously can't go coach somewhere else, but he gives a shit here. Guys like fucking Holmgren need to be, and have been, drummed out of town. We need give Chud way more than 3 years dude. If the staff and FO feel like they have to make shit happen instantly, they make personnel decisions for the short term....and why not? THey don't care if they overpay a dude cause the salary cap situation years down the road may very well not affect them cause they'll be gone. That is the definition of instability. Chud needs to stay for years. Even if we have to slog through a couple sub .500 years. We need stability there like Pgh had when Cowhere was there for what, 12-15 years?

i've made your same point about other coaches in the past and they were out the door in 2.

 

either way it's not up to me. it's up to haslam. if he ain't puttin out a good product and he's not meeting his bottom line because of it, i don't see the chudnorvski experiment making it past 2015, if they don't show improvement. and to me improvement is at least a sniff at a playoff game. you know like 9 wins.

[alwardc4]

Yards per play is possibly the most important stat. Browns are #2 there as stated earlier. However, they are 23rd ranked on football outsiders which is odd since FO uses ypp. However, they weight the ypp. A 2 yd gain has value on 3rd and 1 rather than 1st and 10.

 

Advancednlfstats has them at 12 itl. Seems about right. Improved, but not great yet.

 

Ok, flush the nerd out. Eye test time. They actually seem kinda vanilla with their schemes. I don't think there are a ton of weaknesses tho. Maybe another CB and an ILB to add in the offseason.

[miktoxic]

Maybe another CB and an ILB to add in the offseason.

depending on how they approach the QB situation, maybe having hoyer start and the rookie sit (of course depending on where they pick him) CB and ILB our within my top four picks, and maybe even another safety and another LB in FA or draft.

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

Cool... maybe we can swap back to a 4-3 next year...

 

 

This from the "blog" bugged me...

 

 

 

 

 

-Injuries

The Browns defense has been healthy all season. They have lost zero full-time starters to the dreaded Injured Reserve.

Injury impact is the result of a lot more than IR nose count. How many games have we failed to start the same 11 on D? ... the same front 7?

 

We swapped from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Based on our early performance, both in Pre and early Regular-Season games, overall the swap went a helluva a lot better than I thought it would. But our 3-4 has never developed the cohesiveness it needs and I lay most of that at the feet of injury induced, constant line-up shuffling. Add to this that (with the possible exception of the D-line) we lack the personnel depth to adequately fill-in for missing starters and I think our slide into an "also ran" defense is understandable.

 

 

Just how "thick" is that race?

What starters haven't played in the last five weeks?

 

Tank Carder is the only defensive player to be listed as "out" in any of the last five games. Of course there will be regular injuries, but for the most part the a Browns defense hasn't been bitten by the bug.

 

Every single team is going to have plays, drives, even games without starters. We haven't necessarily had to deal with it.

 

Good teams overcome. The Patriots lost their best receiving threat and still won 5 games without him.

 

It's a bad excuse.

 

EDIT: on the season, Rubin has missed two games. Sheard has missed three games. Robertson has missed one. Bryant has missed one.

 

Kruger has missed zero. Jackson has missed zero. Haden has missed zero. Ward has missed zero. Gipson has missed zero. Skrine has missed zero. Taylor has missed zero.

 

Seven of our eleven full time starters have missed zero games. The other four have missed, on average, 1.75 games.

 

We've hardly been touched by injuries.

 

Further, we have four quality OLB's, any one of which would start for most teams in the league. I'd say we have depth there. We lack depth at CB and ILB. Maybe FS, which is immaterial because Gipson and Ward haven't missed a game this season.

[Zombo]

 

 

 

This from the "blog" bugged me...

 

-Injuries

The Browns defense has been healthy all season. They have lost zero full-time starters to the dreaded Injured Reserve.

 

 

 

 

 

Didn't coast back to see when this was written, but Desmond Bryant was lost to IR, Robertson, Sheard and Rubin missed games and nickel back Owens lost too.

 

Nobod team stays healthy all year, but I think he had a "normal" injury year on defense as opposed to our normal "Apocalyptic" year.

 

Zombo

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

 

Didn't coast back to see when this was written, but Desmond Bryant was lost to IR, Robertson, Sheard and Rubin missed games and nickel back Owens lost too.

 

Nobod team stays healthy all year, but I think he had a "normal" injury year on defense as opposed to our normal "Apocalyptic" year.

 

Zombo

The article was written before the Patriots game and after the abomination of the Jags game, and then I updated it after Sunday's game. I just missed fixing that.

 

Regardless, that's the first full time starter to be placed on IR this season.

 

Two thirds of the defense has played in every game this season. No full time starter has missed more than 3 games, most have only missed one game.

 

It's a routine year for injuries. There's no way someone can viably pin the defensive struggles on that.

[Tour2ma]

Every single team is going to have plays, drives, even games without starters. We haven't necessarily had to deal with it.

 

Good teams overcome. The Patriots lost their best receiving threat and still won 5 games without him.

 

It's a bad excuse.

 

Kruger has missed zero. Jackson has missed zero. Haden has missed zero. Ward has missed zero. Gipson has missed zero. Skrine has missed zero. Taylor has missed zero.

 

Further, we have four quality OLB's, any one of which would start for most teams in the league. I'd say we have depth there.

 

You really see a 3 down OLB in the pack? Really? Sheard and Kruger are both coverage liabilities and Mingo cannot stop the run. Ditto for our 200 lb wunderkind...

 

Haden missed the first two... not due to injury, but he missed them. But no matter since my intent was to focus on the front 7.

 

You cannot compare the injury impact on the Patriots to us. How long has the Patriots defensive system been in place? How long has ours?

 

When you are installing a system it's not just games missed... it's practices missed. You should know that...

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

Haden's suspension was last year.

 

And as I said previously, I see 4 OLB's that can start for most teams in the league. Even Groves, who was a starter for Horton in Arizona. A team, I may add, that had a worse linebacker situation than Cleveland's yet was still productive.

 

Sorry, it's not an excuse. Implementing a system doesn't take 15 games. The system is implented pretty fully by the end of offseason and then a team can start rolling full speed, at the latest, by week 4 or 5. Things after that are just wrinkles and opponent specific shifts, stunts and coverage changes. Haden can go play for any 4-3 team in the NFL tomorrow and get 95% of the "system" by next Sunday.

 

You should know that.

 

This is just Browns fans looking for an excuse rather than accountability. It's like everyone is so happy to have an actual good coach in here that they'll give him as many passes as needed.

 

Fact of the matter is that the defense has been garbage all season, they've regressed statistically in many major categories, the red zone defense is one of the worst defenses in the NFL, two thirds of the defense has yet to miss a game, this is arguably the most talented coach and player personnel we've ever had and yet they aren't playing well. The coaching calls have been questionable to say the least.

 

I'm not calling for Horton's head. Nobody is. That would be stupid, he has the right scheme and right mentality for Cleveland. But we don't have an elite defense. Not yet. I thought we did just like everyone else until I opened my eyes and stopped living in a dream land. The defense is hardly consistent, and that's the problem. They are top ten in 3-and-out drives, yet they also top ten in percentage of drives ending in a touchdown. They either stop opponents immediately or they let them score.

 

I'm saying that, if this defense doesn't see marked improvement by this time next season, Horton won't have a job.

[Clevfan4life]

i've made your same point about other coaches in the past and they were out the door in 2.

 

either way it's not up to me. it's up to haslam. if he ain't puttin out a good product and he's not meeting his bottom line because of it, i don't see the chudnorvski experiment making it past 2015, if they don't show improvement. and to me improvement is at least a sniff at a playoff game. you know like 9 wins.

 

you want 9 wins next season? That's stretching it. We're gonna have a new qb plus a new RB corp. I'm happy with .500 ball next year if we keep shit close. However if there's some shuffling in the offseason cause some guys just aren't gonna cut it in the O and D schemes, than I'm fine with that and as long as they hit a HR in the draft and really get the guys they want....than I'm "ok" with a sub .500 season next year. It's a distinct possibility that this year was a test year to see which Shurmur ball leftovers would fit the new system.